# (77) FULL: Elon Musk Makes Shocking Future Predictions At U.S.-Saudi Arabia Forum Alongside Jensen Huang - YouTube
- Transcript ID: `4bumso_277y`
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- Original language: `en_or_source_language_unlabeled`
- Translation status: `agent_translated_reviewed` (49/49 chunks)
- Original source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4bUmso_277Y
- Raw evidence: `data/transcripts/youtube/4bUmso_277Y.json`
> 中文是派生翻译，英文是留存的源文本。中文未复核时，以英文和原始音视频为准。
## 00:00:00
**中文**
领导力和创造力将定义明天的数字格局。我非常荣幸介绍沙特阿拉伯王国通信与信息技术大臣阿卜杜拉·阿尔斯瓦哈阁下。阁下，非常感谢，很高兴见到您。今天上午还有两位非凡的远见者：欢迎特斯拉首席执行官、SpaceX 与 xAI 创始人埃隆·马斯克，以及英伟达创始人兼首席执行官黄仁勋登台。
**English / Original**
Leadership and ingenuity will define tomorrow's digital landscape. It is my great honor to introduce his excellency Abdullah Al Swaha, Minister of Communications and Information Technology of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Your Excellency, thank you so much. Good to see you. Also with us this morning [music] are two incredible visionaries. Please join me in welcoming to the stage Elon Musk, the CEO of Tesla, founder of SpaceX, founder of XAI, and Jensen Kuang, founder and CEO of Nvidia.
## 00:00:37
**中文**
请坐。我们当然可以为历史上两位最伟大的领导者报以更热烈的掌声。我们谈的是——我已数不清了——7 万亿到 8 万亿美元市值的公司。但今天我们在这里庆祝一个历史性时刻；昨晚的晚宴上，感谢各位在——
**English / Original**
[music] [music] Please, please have a seat. Now, I'm sure we can do a bigger round of applause for one of the greatest two leaders of our history. Let's go ahead. [applause] So, we're talking about I lost count, you know, seven to eight trillion dollars worth of market cap comp. I lost count. But right now, we're here to celebrate a historic moment. A moment that yesterday during the dinner and thank you for for joining us under the
## 00:01:18
**中文**
在尊敬的总统和王储殿下的主持下出席，我们有幸亲耳听到这一点。这是沙特阿拉伯王国与美国之间最伟大的联盟：我们携手建设以能源为基础的经济，为工业时代提供动力，如今快进到智能时代，为 AI 工厂、机器人、电动汽车等提供动力。说到这里，埃隆，如果黄仁勋不介意，我们先请你谈谈。
**English / Original**
patronage of the honorable president and his royal highness the crown prince Musedi where we had the pleasure to hear it firsthand. This is the greatest alliance between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the United States where we have joined hands and you have helped us build our energy based economy fueling and energizing the industrial age and now fast forward going to the intelligence age where we can fuel AI factories robotics EVs and all of the rest. Speaking of that, let's start with you, Elon, if you don't mind, Jensen.
## 00:01:57
**中文**
欢迎黄仁勋随时补充。你对我们都钦佩的第一性原理思维非常着迷，黄仁勋有时称之为第一性扩展；你已将电池成本从每千瓦时 1,000 美元降至低于 100 美元。现在，你正通过执行器、伺服转子和电机，在机器人领域做同样的事。
**English / Original**
Feel free to chive in you have a big fascination of something all of us have admired, first order thinking, which Jensen sometimes calls first order scaling, which is an opportunity for how you have dropped the cost of batteries from a thousand for kilowatt hour to subund bucks. And right now you're doing the same thing with robotics for actuators with servo rotors and motors.
## 00:02:26
**中文**
我想听你说说：你如何凭这种思维不断颠覆每个行业？马斯克：它主要不是颠覆，而是创造。以 SpaceX 的可重复使用火箭为例，过去实际上没有可复用火箭；但革新太空旅行的本质就是可复用。若每次都丢弃火箭，进入太空的成本极高。至于电动汽车，当我们——
**English / Original**
So I want to hear from you. How do you manage to always disrupt every single industry with that thinking? >> Well, it's mostly not disruption, it's uh creation. So with uh say SpaceX with reusable rockets, uh there really weren't any reusable rockets. Um, but the essence of getting of revolutionizing space travel is reusability. If you throw the rocket away every time, the cost of access to space is extremely high. Um, with respect to electric cars, there there weren't any electric cars when we
## 00:03:06
**中文**
——真正开始制造时，据我所知你根本买不到。特斯拉的目标是让电动汽车有吸引力且价格可负担。至于人形机器人，目前没有真正有用的人形机器人，只有一些噱头。我认为特斯拉会制造第一个真正有用的人形机器人；这将是一场革命，人人都会想要，因为谁不想拥有自己的 C-3PO 或 R2-D2？
**English / Original**
started making them really. You couldn't buy any to the best of my knowledge. Um, so with Tesla, we wanted to make electric cars compelling um and affordable. That was the goal. Um the uh you know with respect to humanoid robotics, there are no useful humanoid robotic robots at this point. Um there are sort of gimmicks, but there are there are no actually useful humanoid robots. Um and I think Tesla's going to make the first actually useful humanoid robots. Um and this will be quite a revolution and I think something that will that everyone will want. Uh because I always think of like who who wouldn't want their own personal C3PO R2-D2.
## 00:03:46
**中文**
当然，人人都会想要一个；工业界也会有许多机器人提供产品和服务。这就是我说人形机器人会成为史上最大行业或最大产品的原因，比手机或其他任何东西都大，因为每个人都会想要一个，甚至不止一个，工业界也会有许多。主持人：我只想要装在 C-3PO 身体里的 R2-D2。
**English / Original**
>> Oh yeah, >> of course everyone would want one, right? And and then there would be many in industry uh providing products and services. This is why I say that humanoid robots will be the biggest industry or the biggest product ever. Um, bigger than cell phones or anything else because everyone's going to want one and uh or maybe more more than one and there'll be many in industry. Um, >> I just want R2-D2 in C3PO's body.
## 00:04:16
**中文**
对。人形机器人会比 R2-D2 和 C-3PO 加起来好十倍。人们常谈消除贫困，已经谈了多久？许多 NGO 尝试做这些事却未成功，证据说明了一切。但 AI 和人形机器人将真正消除贫困；特斯拉不会是唯一制造它们的公司。我认为特斯拉会开创先河，但还会有许多其他——
**English / Original**
>> Yeah, >> there you go. >> Um, well, I mean, a humanoid robot would be better than R2-D2 and C3PO combined. Yeah. >> Times 10. >> Yeah. So the it and and you know people often talk about uh sort of eliminating poverty and that kind of thing but really the there's how long have they been talking about that? Um there's lots of talk uh you know there's lots of NOS's sort of trying to do these things but but really not succeeding. Um and and and you know the evidence speaks for itself. Uh but but but AI and humanoid robots will actually eliminate poverty and Tesla won't be the only one that makes them. I think Tesla will pioneer this but there will be many other
## 00:04:57
**中文**
——公司制造人形机器人。基本上让人人富裕的唯一方法就是 AI 和机器人。我们谈机器人不能不谈 AI 工厂。昨天对两国和我们所有人都是历史性一天：在总统和王储殿下见证下，我们庆祝与美国签署 AI 战略伙伴关系；我们承诺投入资本、能源和土地，为美国 AI 生态系统提供动力，建设推理节点和训练节点，成为最具 AI 能力的——
**English / Original**
companies that make humanoid robots. But there there is only basically one way to uh make everyone wealthy and that is AI and robotics. >> And we can't talk about robotics without AI factories. And yesterday was such a historic day for the two nations but also for all of us where we celebrate the AI strategic partnership with the US s signed witnessed by the honorable president and his royal highness about how we are committing our capital energy land to energize the AI US ecosystem to be able to build inference node training nodes and to be the most AI enabled
## 00:05:40
**中文**
——国家。黄仁勋，AI 工厂下一步是什么？有个美丽故事：沙特阿拉伯正在从建设炼油厂转向建设 AI 工厂。我喜欢这个说法。我一直说 AI 是基础设施；当然，我们从技术及其如何革新每个行业的角度理解 AI。
**English / Original**
nation with that announcement. Tell me what's what's next in AI factories. Jensen, >> there there's a there's a beautiful story about how Saudi Arabia's building AI refineries now building AI fac or oil refineries to AI factories. >> I love that. >> I you know I've said that that AI is an infrastructure and the reason for that of course we understand AI from the perspective of the technology and how it's revolutionizing every industry.
## 00:06:06
**中文**
数字智能当然可用于每个领域，因此每家公司、每个行业、每个国家都会使用它。就此而言，它是基础性的，因而是基础设施的一部分。从计算机科学角度看，AI 的新颖之处在于，过去的计算大多是基于检索的计算。
**English / Original**
Digital intelligence of course has applications into every every field and so it's going to be used by every company, every industry, every country. In that way, it's foundational and therefore it's part of infrastructure. What is new about AI from a computer science perspective is that the way computing was done in the past was largely retrievalbased computing.
## 00:06:32
**中文**
有人预先输入故事、创作艺术品或做出四个数字广告版本，然后系统为你检索合适版本。这是基于检索的计算模型。Hadoop 及过去许多框架和操作系统都旨在检索合适信息；但如今软件将实时生成。
**English / Original**
Somebody typed in a story or somebody created a a piece of art or came came up with four versions of a digital ad or it's all pre-built by somebody which is then using a system to retrieve the appropriate version for you. It's a retrievalbased computing model. Hadoop and many of the the the frameworks and operating systems of the past all designed to retrieve the appropriate information for you. But today software is going to be generated in real time.
## 00:07:04
**中文**
它会根据上下文、情境、你是谁、所提问题和提示词进行生成；每次都会为每个人生成独特内容。使用 Grok 时，每次结果都因提示词和情境不同而不同。过去是检索式，今天是生成式；既然每次不同，就需要世界各地的 AI 工厂实时生成内容，这就是需要 AI 工厂的原因。这是独特的计算方式，但其——
**English / Original**
It's generative based on the context, based on the circumstance, based on who you are, based on the problem you ask that based on your prompt. It will generate unique content for you every single time for everybody. It's unique. When you use Grock, every time you use it is different based on right based on based on the based on the prompt that you give it and based on the circumstance and and so therefore it used to be retrievalbased today it's generative and if it's generative then and every time is different then you need AI factories all over the world to generate the content in real time which is the reason why you need AI factories and and this is a unique way of doing computation but the
## 00:07:45
**中文**
——好处是，一切不再是预先构想和记录的，而是符合上下文、因而智能的。AI 工厂和机器人方面，我们昨天听到王储殿下的愿景：用约数千万台机器人增强劳动力，注入下一波生产力与进步。
**English / Original**
benefit of course is that Everything isn't preconceived and pre-documented and it's it's contextually s contextually sensible and and therefore intelligent. >> So AI factories and robotics and we heard it yesterday from his royal highness his vision how to augment our workforce with roughly tens of millions of robotics to be able to infuse the next wave of productivity and progress.
## 00:08:10
**中文**
但谈到未来工作，这让很多人担心。埃隆和黄仁勋，请谈谈你们的看法。马斯克：若说长期最终会怎样——对我而言长期可能是 10 年、20 年——我的预测是，工作将是可选的。
**English / Original**
But this scares a lot of folks here when it comes to the future of jobs. So let's hear about your thoughts uh Elon and Jensen on that. >> Uh sure. Well um if you say like in the long term where will things end up? Long term I don't know what long term is maybe it's 10 20 years something like that. For me that's long term. Um my prediction is that work will be optional.
## 00:08:36
**中文**
可选的。就像运动或玩电子游戏。如果你想工作，就像你可以到商店买蔬菜，也可以在后院种；后者更难，但有人仍会因为喜欢种菜而去做。工作将是这样可选的。不过在抵达那一点之前，还有很多工作要做。
**English / Original**
>> Optional. >> Optional. Um so >> we'll take that. >> Yeah. I mean it it'll be like uh playing sports or a video game or something like that. Um if you want to work uh you know in the same way like you can you can go to the store and just buy some vegetables or you could grow vegetables in your backyard. It's much harder to grow vegetables in your backyard but some people still do it because they like growing growing vegetables. Um that will be what work is like optional. Um now between now and then there's actually a lot of work to get to that point.
## 00:09:13
**中文**
我总推荐人们读伊恩·M·班克斯的《文明》系列，以感受一种可能的正面 AI 未来。有趣的是，那些书里金钱已不存在。我猜，若 AI 和机器人继续改善——这看来很可能——未来某时金钱将不再重要。当然，电力、质量等物理要素仍会构成约束。
**English / Original**
>> Mh. Um, and I always recommend people read read Yin Banks uh culture books to get a sense for what a probable positive AI future is like. Um, and interestingly in those books, money is no longer doesn't exist. It's kind of interesting. And I I my guess is in in if you go out long enough assuming there's a continued improvement in AI and robotics which there seems likely the money will will stop being relevant at some point in the future. Um now there will still be constraints on power like electricity and mass. Uh the
## 00:09:55
**中文**
基本物理要素仍是约束，但我认为货币终会变得无关紧要。黄仁勋有什么看法？顺便说，英伟达财报电话会今天晚些时候举行。既然货币仍重要，干杯。埃隆想和大家分享突发——
**English / Original**
fundamental physics elements will still be still be constraints. Um but um I think at some point uh currency becomes irrelevant. >> Jensen, any thoughts? >> Um [laughter] by the way, the Nvidia earnings call is later today. [laughter] >> And by the way, since currency is relevant. >> Cheers. [laughter] Elon just wants to share with you some breaking [laughter] news.
## 00:10:37
**中文**
——新闻。黄仁勋：可以从不同时间尺度看。每个人的工作都会不同，这是肯定的；学生学习方式不同，人们工作方式也不同，因为许多日常、费力或困难的事情会变得很简单，因此我们会更高效。我要说的是，对多数人或公司而言，若生活更高效、你正在做的事——
**English / Original**
[laughter] The two of us who like to share some breaking news. Uh let's see. I I would say I would say there there's um different horizons you could look at. Everybody's jobs will be different. That I think that that's for sure. Uh how how the students learn will be different. um uh how people do their work will be different obviously because a lot of the things that that we do mundanely or arduously or very difficultly are going to be done very simply and and so we're going to be more productive from that s from that sense one of the things that I will say is that for most people or a company if some if your life becomes more productive and if the things that you're doing uh
## 00:11:19
**中文**
——从极困难变得简单，你很可能因有许多想法而有更多时间去追求它们。我猜埃隆会因 AI 更忙，我也会更忙；因为我们有太多想追求的想法和公司积压事项。若更高效，我们能更快完成它们。短期证据都表明，我们会更高效，却仍更忙，因为想法很多。一个例子是——
**English / Original**
with great difficulty becomes simpler it is very likely because you have so many ideas, you'll have more time to go pursue things. It is my guess that Elon will be busier as a result of AI. I'm going to be busier as a result of AI. And the reason for that is because we have so many ideas we want to pursue, so many things that that we still have in our backlog inside our company that we can go pursue. If we were more productive, we can get to those things faster. And so in the near term I would say that that there is every evidence that that we will be more productive and yet still be busier because we have so many ideas. One thing that I will say give you give you some evidence is that
## 00:11:58
**中文**
我刚才告诉埃隆：例如放射学已很大程度转为 AI 驱动的放射学，有很好的公司在做。令人惊讶的是，预测所有放射科医生会最先失业恰好相反；趋势显示，AI 使现在雇佣了更多放射科医生。退一步看，原因是放射科医生的目标并非研究图像。
**English / Original**
uh and I was just telling Elon about this earlier radiology for example has largely been uh converted to AIdriven radiology and there's some really great companies doing that and the surprising thing is the prediction that all radiologists would be the first jobs to go was exactly the opposite. The trend shows that there are more radiologists being hired now as a result of AI. And the reason for that, if you take a step back, it's because the goal of a radiologist is not to study the images.
## 00:12:31
**中文**
放射科医生的目标是诊断疾病。现在图像研究效率极高，他们可看更多图像、更多模态、与患者共处更多时间，因此接收更多患者。全球都在做更多放射学检查，也更好地诊断疾病。这是 AI 和生产力的近期结果；长期会如何，拭目以待。等货币不重要之前，先告诉我一声。
**English / Original**
The goal of a radiologist is to diagnose a disease. Now, the studying of the images became so productive. They could study more images, study more modalities, spend more time with the patients. And as a result, they were actually accepting more patients. We're doing more radiology all around the world. We're doing a better job with diagnosing disease. And so that's that's kind of the the nearterm near uh outcome of of uh AI and productivity. And and we'll see we'll see what happens long term. You know, I I when when currency doesn't matter anymore, just, you know, let me know right before.
## 00:13:10
**中文**
你会看到它到来的。我们经常发短信，所以到时告诉我。我大体同意两位：纵观每个技术趋势，每项通用技术总体都给全球、人类带来新的正面价值。阁下，我认为这恰恰因为埃隆、黄仁勋等创新者有如此多好想法。
**English / Original**
>> You'll see it coming. [laughter] You'll see it coming. like like >> we text often so just >> Yeah, we do. >> Yeah, just text it off. Yeah, let me know. >> I kind of I kind of agree with with both of you because if you look at every technological trend, every general purpose technology has been net new positive for for the globe for humanity and so forth. And let me share with you two key >> and and your excellency I think it's precisely the reason the reason for that is because all the great ideas from from innovators like Elon that you have so many good ideas >> that >> and Jensen as well.
## 00:13:45
**中文**
谢谢。我分享两个沙特创新者的故事，它们与英伟达和 Grok 所做的伟大工作合作有关。一个是奥马拉吉教授。让我再说一次，是奥马拉吉教授。可能需要移动麦克风。来，我们共用这个。
**English / Original**
>> Yeah. Well, thank you. >> So let me share with you two stories from two Saudi innovators in collaboration with a lot of great the great work that Nvidia does that Gro does. One is Professor Omaragi. All right, let's say that again. It's Professor Omaragi. Who is >> I might need to might need to move the mic. >> All right, >> here. Come on. We'll share this one.
## 00:14:16
**中文**
好，靠近一些。再试一次。其中一位是奥马拉吉教授，他是首位因创造新化学而获得诺奖的美籍沙特人。他利用你们的 AI 加速器和 Grok 等模型，在金属有机框架方面创造新化学：带正电金属离子与有机连接体形成有效的海绵，其孔径为 333 纳米，可从空气捕获水，也可捕获二氧化碳。
**English / Original**
>> All right. [laughter] So, now >> get closer. >> Let's let's let's try this one more time. So one of them is professor Omaragi who's the first American Saudi to win a Nobel prize in creating new chemistry and the way he has done that he has leveraged your AI accelerators and models like Grock to be able to create new chemistry when it comes to metal organic frameworks. Those are metal ions that are positively charged with organic linkers to be able to effectively create a sponge with 333 nanometers pores to capture water from air and also to capture carbon dioxide.
## 00:14:57
**中文**
第二个故事也与英伟达加速的 AI 及 Grok 等模型有关：有效地制造一个 500 纳米乘 1,000 纳米的纳米机器人，利用 CRISPR 技术进行基因编辑以消除镰状细胞病。这两项研究 20 年前就起源于科研，但 AI 真正加速了成果和产出，使我们能进入新的价值池。我认为每个技术趋势中，人类总能在劳动力和——
**English / Original**
The second story has also to do with AI accelerated by Nvidia and with models like Brock which is nanop which is effectively creating a nano robot 500 nanometers by a,000 nanometers to be able to do gene editing leveraging the crisper technology to take out sickle cell disease. Now in both these instances they originated 20 years ago in research but AI was able to really accelerate the outcomes and the outputs such that we can move into new value pools. So I think with every technological trend humanity is going to always manage to shift to new value pools when it comes to workforce and
## 00:15:40
**中文**
——生产力方面转向新的价值池。但今天我们有重要公告。埃隆，先谈 xAI。马斯克：我们很高兴宣布，我们在做一个 500 兆瓦——对，500 兆瓦。500 吉瓦的项目得等等。
**English / Original**
productivity. But we have some great announcements to talk about here today. Let's begin with you Elon. the things that we're doing with XAI. >> Uh yeah, we're excited to announce that um we're doing a a a uh a 500 megawatt I mean yeah 500 sorry >> 500 megawatt >> 500 megawatt. Yeah, >> we're doing [laughter] >> we're doing 500 megawatt >> sorry >> yeah yeah 500 g one will have to wait.
## 00:16:09
**中文**
那会花八百万亿万亿美元，别说了。xAI 与沙特阿拉伯王国正与英伟达一起做 Humane 的 500 兆瓦项目，第一阶段 50 兆瓦。祝贺 Humane 团队和相关团队，做得极好。黄仁勋，本周我们也有很棒的公告。黄仁勋：是的，我们正在宣布各种事情。
**English / Original**
Um so um >> that that'll be eight bazillion trillion dollars. Um, [laughter] stop that. >> Uh, [laughter] >> so yeah, we we're we're doing a um XAI and the King of Saudi Arabia are doing a a >> Humane 500 megawatt starting with 50 megawatt phase one and we're doing it with Nvidia. Congratulations to the Humane team to target team. Such a fantastic job. Jensen, I think we're also doing some great announcements. Uh this week >> we are [laughter] >> well we're we're announcing we're announcing all kinds of things. Um uh
## 00:16:50
**中文**
我们与 Humane 的伙伴关系进展极好。首先我们一起帮助这家公司启动，现在它有了埃隆这个不可思议的客户。能想象一家营收约 0 亿美元的初创公司现在要为埃隆建设数据中心吗？500 兆瓦巨大无比，这家公司立即就非同寻常。此外，AWS 也在合作；祝贺 Humane 团队，AWS 从 100 兆瓦起步，目标 1 吉瓦，还会继续增长。
**English / Original**
our partnership with Humane is is going incredibly well. First of all uh we we uh work together to get this company started and off the ground and just got an incredible customer with Elon. Could you imagine a startup company approximately 0 billion in revenues now going to uh build a data center for Elon? uh 500 megawatts is gigantic. Uh this company is off the charts uh right away. Uh in addition to that, we're um uh working working uh AWS as you know is also >> congratulations to the humane team with AWS starting with 100 megawatts with a gigawatt ambition and uh counting.
## 00:17:33
**中文**
AWS 也来到 Humane。我们正与 Humane 在 Omniverse 数字孪生上合作。AI 不仅是智能体 AI、聊天机器人和认知 AI；AI 可应用于化学品、蛋白质、基因、物理、流体动力学、粒子，当然还有机器人和执行器。我们创建了 Omniverse 世界，机器人能在那里学习如何做好机器人；它以物理为基础，遵循物理定律，因此机器人能在这些环境中学习。我们正与 Humane 将 Omniverse 用于各种——
**English / Original**
>> So AWS is also coming to Humane. Uh we're working with uh Humane on Omniverse uh digital twins. uh as you know that AI is not just well just agentic AI and chat bots and uh cognitive AI is incredibly important to the world. Uh but AI applies to everything chemicals and proteins and genes and physics and fluid dynamics and particles and of course robotics and activation and um and we created this world called Omniverse where robots can learn how to be good robots and and it's physically based. obeys the laws of physics and so robots can learn in these environments and we're working with Humane to apply Omniverse to all kinds
## 00:18:15
**中文**
——数字工厂、机器人、仓库等。我们也在沙特建设用于模拟量子计算机的超级计算机，并用我们的计算机做控制器和纠错；量子纠错需要巨大计算量。我们在那里也做了很多重要工作。与 Humane 的伙伴关系很大，他们同时迅速起步并表现卓越。这就是我们如何在沙特阿拉伯王国与美国合作中言行一致。
**English / Original**
of uh digital factories and robotics and warehouses and things like that. And so that's that's another uh we're we're also working uh in Saudi Arabia to build supercomputers to simulate quantum computers and and uh uh using our computers to be the controller and the error correction quantum error correction requires an enormous amount of computation and so so we're doing a lot of great work there too. So a big partnership with Humane they're off the charts um off the ground and off the charts at the same time. This is how we walk the talk in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in partnership with the US.
## 00:18:50
**中文**
昨天，总统和王储殿下宣布 AI 战略框架与伙伴关系。今天我们与埃隆、黄仁勋大力推进。感谢这些机会。我还有两个最后问题。昨晚晚宴上，似乎日程泄露，大家一直暗示我最后两个问题；第一个问埃隆，第二个大问题问黄仁勋。AI 在——
**English / Original**
Yesterday, the president and his Royal Highness announced the AI strategic framework and partnership. Today, we're going big with Elon and Jensen. So, thank you for those opportunities. [applause] Now, they they told me I have time for two last questions. So last night at the dinner I got a number of questions because it seems that the schedule leaked and uh everybody was giving me hints about the last two questions I'm going to do. So the first one was for you Elon and there's a big one for you Jensen. So prepare for that one. AI in
## 00:19:30
**中文**
——太空中，可能吗？
**English / Original**
space is that possible?
## 00:19:33
**中文**
是的，如果文明延续——它大概会延续——太空 AI 就不可避免。我要先说，不能把文明视作理所当然；我们需谨慎确保文明向上发展。任何研究历史的人都知道，文明并非总是向上，也有生命周期。希望我们正处于强劲上升轨道。
**English / Original**
Uh yes, if if civilization continues, which it probably will, uh then AI in space is inevitable. Um um [laughter] you know, I always have to like preface that, you know, we shouldn't take civilization for granted. We we need to make sure to take care to ensure that civilization has an an upward arc. I mean, any student of history knows that civilization does not always have an upward arc. And in fact, civilizations have life life cycles. So hopefully we are in a strong upward arc.
## 00:20:06
**中文**
我认为目前是如此，但不能想当然或自满。思考太空 AI 的方法是：要实现卡尔达肖夫 II 型文明的任何有意义比例，即使仅使用太阳能的百万分之一，也必须在深空部署太阳能驱动 AI 卫星。一旦以 II 型文明——把太阳能多少比例转为有用功——来思考，就显而易见太空是——
**English / Original**
I think we are for now. Um but we don't want to take that for granted or be complacent. Um but the in order to the way to think of AI in space is that in order to achieve any meaningful percentage of a cautev 2 scale civilization where you're using even a millionth a millionth of the sun's energy you must have solar powered AI satellites in in deep space. Um so so that once you realize like once you think in terms of a kadeshv two scale civilization which is what what percentage of the sun's energy are you turning into useful work um then you then it becomes obvious that space is
## 00:20:48
**中文**
——压倒性重要的。地球仅接收到太阳能的大约二十亿分之一；若你想拥有比地球可能产生的能量多一百万倍的东西，就必须进入太空。有一家太空公司在这方面多少有点方便。
**English / Original**
overwhelmingly what matters overwhelmingly the sun only receives one roughly 1/2 billionth of the earth only receives roughly u two billionth of the sun's energy So if you want to have something that is say a million times more energy than Earth could possibly produce, >> you must go into space. It's and and so um you know this is where it's kind of handy to have a space company, I guess, um sell the book.
## 00:21:21
**中文**
在太空中冷却芯片也更容易。太空没有水，所以得采用不涉及水的办法；只需辐射散热。我的估计是，太空 AI 的电力成本效益会压倒性优于地面 AI，早在耗尽地球潜在能源之前——我想甚至可能在——
**English / Original**
>> Easier to cool chips in space, too. >> Yes. >> Easier to cool chips in space. Yeah. >> Yes. There's definitely no water in space, so you're going to have to do something. >> Yeah. >> That doesn't involve water. >> Just hang out. >> Well, it's you just got to radiate. >> That's right. >> Um, >> so my estimate is that actually that that that the cost of of electricity like like the cost effectiveness of AI in space will be overwhelmingly better than AI on the ground. So long long before you uh exhaust potential energy sources on on Earth. Long long before meaning like I think even perhaps in the
## 00:22:00
**中文**
——四到五年内，最便宜的 AI 计算方式将是太阳能驱动的 AI 卫星，所以不会超过 5 年。看看我们共同建设的超级计算机；假设每个机架重两吨，其中 1.95 吨可能用于冷却，对吗？
**English / Original**
four or five year time frame the lowest cost way to do AI compute will be with solar powered AI satellites. So I'd say not more than 5 years from now. >> Wow. >> And just look at the supercomputers we're building together. Let's say each one of the racks is two tons. Out of that two tons, 1.95 of it is probably for cooling, >> right?
## 00:22:26
**中文**
是的。想象那台小型超级计算机本身会多小；每个 GB300 机架都只是小东西。发电已经成为挑战。若对发电和冷却进行任何规模扩展，就会意识到太空非常有吸引力。比如你想每年做 200 或 300 吉瓦的 AI 计算。
**English / Original**
>> Oh, yeah. >> Just imagine how tiny that little supercomput is, right? Each one of these GB300 racks will just be a little tiny thing. >> And and just electricity generation is is already becoming a challenge. >> Um so if if you start doing any kind of scaling for both electricity generation and cooling, um you realize, okay, space is incredibly compelling. Um so like let's say you wanted to do um I don't know two or 300 gawatt per year um of of AI compute.
## 00:22:59
**中文**
在地球上非常难做到。美国平均用电量，我上次查是约 460 吉瓦；若每年做 300 吉瓦，大约是美国年发电量的三分之二。
**English / Original**
>> Yeah. >> Um it's very difficult to do that on Earth. Uh the so the the uh US average electricity usage uh last time I checked was around 460 gawatts per year average usage. Um so so something like say uh you know at three 300 if you're doing 300 gawatts a year that would be like 2/3 of US electricity production per year.
## 00:23:23
**中文**
你不可能以这种水平建设发电厂。若提高到每年 1 太瓦，更不可能；你必须在太空做。地球上绝无可能每年做 1 太瓦。太空有持续太阳能，而且不需要电池，因为太空中总是有阳光。
**English / Original**
>> There's no way you're building power plants at that level. Um and then if you take it up to say a terowatt per year impossible. Yeah. >> Like you have to do that in space. >> There there just is there just is no way to do a terowatt uh per year on Earth. Um and uh and and in space you you've got continuous solar. Um you've got uh you don't you actually don't need batteries because it's always sunny in space.
## 00:23:49
**中文**
对。而且太阳能板会更便宜，因为不需要玻璃或框架；冷却就是辐射散热。这就是我的想法。那是梦想。黄仁勋，昨晚大家都要我问你；我知道你今天有财报电话会，所以委婉地问：我们会有 AI 泡沫吗？
**English / Original**
>> Right. Exactly. >> Um and um and and the solar panels actually become cheaper because you don't need glass or framing. Um and the cooling is just radiative. So that's that's why I think >> that's the dream. >> Yes, >> that's the dream. So Jensen, everybody last night was asking me, and I'm mindful it's a earnings uh call for you today. So I'm going to say this delicately. Everybody has been asking me to ask you, are we going to have an AI bubble?
## 00:24:18
**中文**
这是最后一个问题。让我说我们所见：回到计算机科学和计算的第一性原理，有三件事发生。第一，摩尔定律已走到尽头，计算需求与通用计算可提供算力之间的差距很大，所以世界已转向加速计算一段时间，我们已推动超过 20 年。给你一个——
**English / Original**
That's the last question. All right, let's No. All right, let me Well, let me just hear you what we see. Okay, so so I I think it's really important when you look at what's happening around the world and go back to first principles of what's happening in computer science and computing. There are three things that that's happening. The first thing is that we all know that Moore's law has run its course and the ability that the amount of demand for computing versus the amount of computation we can get out of general purpose computing is really challenging. And so the world's been moving to accelerated computing for some time. We've been pushing this now for some over 20 years. Let me give you one
## 00:24:53
**中文**
——统计：6 年前，CPU 占全球前 500 台超级计算机的 90%；今年不足 15%，从 90% 到 10%。与此同时，加速计算从 10% 到现在 90%。这就是高性能计算从通用计算转向加速计算的拐点。云端最数据密集、计算最密集的任务之一是数据处理；仅仅——
**English / Original**
statistic. I was just at supercomputing six years ago. uh CPUs were 90% of the world's supercomputers, top 500 supercomputers 6 years ago. This year, less than 15%. Went from 90% to 10%. And meanwhile, accelerated computing went from the other way, 10% to now 90%. Okay? So, you're seeing that inflection point, the transition in high performance computing from general purpose computing to accelerated computing. Well, one of the one of the most data intensive one of the most intensive computation things that the world does in cloud is data processing. Several hundred billion dollars of computation is done on just
## 00:25:35
**中文**
——原始数据处理就花数千亿美元，与 AI 无关，只是 SQL、数据框：姓名、地址、性别、年龄、居住地、收入等都在数据框中。数据框驱动今天的世界，无论银行、信用卡、电子商务还是广告推荐；计算这些数据框耗费数千亿美元。这是第一件事：摩尔定律终结。第二是生成式 AI；过去 15 年最重要的应用是所谓推荐——
**English / Original**
raw data processing. Has nothing to do with AI, just SQL processing, data frames, you know, everybody's names, address, their their sex, their their age, where they live, you know, how much money they make. All of that sits into a data frame. And that data frame drives the world today. whether it's in banking or you know whether it's in credit cards or of course e-commerce and everything from ad recommendation and everything is driven off of that data frame that data frame costs hundreds of billions of dollars to go compute and so that's the number one thing end of mors law the second thing is generative AI what the the the most important application of the last 15 years is called rexes
## 00:26:15
**中文**
——系统：如何在社交信息流中推荐信息、广告、书籍、电影？互联网如此巨大，没有推荐系统，我们在小小手机上根本没机会看到正确信息。推荐系统是今天互联网的引擎，它正在走向生成式 AI。它过去运行在 CPU 上，现在运行在 GPU 上。只看这两种应用，许多互联网公司就能建设大量 GPU 超级计算机；当然随后它又——
**English / Original**
recommener systems how do we know what information to recommend to us uh in a social feed. How do you know what ad to recommend to somebody? Uh what book to recommend, what movie to recommend? The world is the internet is so gigantic without a recommener system that a little tiny phone of us will have no chance of ever seeing the right information. That Rexus is the engine of the internet today. That's going generative AI. It used to be running on CPUs, now it runs on GPUs. Which then says the third thing when if you just look at those two applications many of the internet companies can build enormous number of GPU supercomputers just doing that of course then it
## 00:26:56
**中文**
——在其上创造第三个机会，即智能体 AI：Grok、OpenAI、Anthropic、Gemini 都是如此。智能体 AI 建立在其上，但不要忘记 AI 表象下的情况：整个计算正从通用计算转向加速计算。考虑这一点便会得出结论，真正用于推动革命性智能体 AI 的剩余部分不仅远少于你想的，而且全部合理。团队刚通知我——
**English / Original**
creates this the third opportunity on top of it which is agentic AI this is Grock and this is open AI this is anthropic you know this is Gemini agentic AI sits on top of that but don't you know don't forget to think about what is happening above underneath what everybody sees as AI today. There's a whole movement of computing from general purpose computing to accelerated computing and that if you just if you take that into consideration, you'll come to the conclusion that in fact what is left over to fuel that revolutionary agentic AI is not only substantially less than you thought and all of it justified. Well, I was just informed by
## 00:27:37
**中文**
我的老板和各位的老板、尊敬的总统和王储殿下即将发言，所以我们时间到了。归根结底，这是一个从能源到数字、再到智能时代的联盟；由埃隆、黄仁勋等先驱推动，为人类服务，在沙特阿拉伯王国和美国支持下创造全新的经济、工作和更美好的未来。
**English / Original**
the team that my boss and your bosses is going to talk next, the honorable president and his royal highness the crown prince and hence we ran out of time. But in essence, [applause] this is a such so much love for you Elon and and Jensen. But this in essence is a 92 alliance that shifted from energy to digital to the intelligence age powered by pioneers such as Elon and Jensen to serve humanity and create on a net new basis new economies, new jobs and a better future for humanity powered by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the United
## 00:28:19
**中文**
感谢我们终身的伙伴关系和友谊。谢谢埃隆，谢谢黄仁勋。谢谢。
**English / Original**
States. Thank you for our lifetime partnership and friendship. Thank you Elon. Thank you Jensen. >> Thank you. >> [applause] [music]