# A conversation with Sam Altman
- Transcript ID: `55079d96eb9cd387`
- Source tier: `official_authored_text`
- Original language: `en_or_source_language_unlabeled`
- Translation status: `agent_translated_reviewed` (154/154 chunks)
- Original source: https://stripe.com/sessions/2026/a-conversation-with-sam-altman
- Raw evidence: `data/transcripts/web/stripe-sessions-sam-altman-2026-04-29.json`
> 中文是派生翻译，英文是留存的源文本。中文未复核时，以英文和原始音视频为准。
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**中文**
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**English / Original**
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**中文**
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**中文**
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**English / Original**
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**中文**
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**English / Original**
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**中文**
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**English / Original**
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**中文**
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**English / Original**
Mit dem Absenden dieses Formulars erklären Sie sich damit einverstanden, dass Ihre personenbezogenen Daten entsprechend der Datenschutzrichtlinie von Stripe verarbeitet werden und dass Ihre Daten in Übereinstimmung mit der Datenschutzrichtlinie von Stripe außerhalb von China gespeichert werden.
## paragraph 9
**中文**
Sam Altman 于 2015 年共同创立 OpenAI，并于 2019 年出任首席执行官。他与 Patrick Collison 对谈 AI 与互联网经济的下一步走向。
**English / Original**
Sam Altman cofounded OpenAI in 2015 and became its CEO in 2019. He joins Patrick Collison to talk about what’s next for AI and the internet economy.
## paragraph 10
**中文**
演讲嘉宾
**English / Original**
Speakers
## paragraph 11
**中文**
Sam Altman，OpenAI 首席执行官；Patrick Collison，Stripe 联合创始人兼首席执行官
**English / Original**
Sam Altman, CEO, OpenAIPatrick Collison, Cofounder and CEO, Stripe
## paragraph 12
**中文**
查看文字稿
**English / Original**
View transcript
## paragraph 13
**中文**
PATRICK COLLISON：大家晚上好。真心希望各位喜欢今天到目前为止的发布和各场活动。我对这场访谈格外期待。大家知道，我原定采访 Greg Brockman——他曾是 Stripe 非常早期的员工，后来共同创立了 OpenAI。但 AI 是一个瞬息万变的领域，眼下发生了很多事情，所以我们稍微调整了一下嘉宾。接下来我要采访的是一位相识多年的朋友。我刚才在后台算了算，认识他大概已有 18 年，也可能是 19 年。他其实是 Stripe 最早期的投资人之一，可能是第二或第三位投资人；2015 年，他还共同创立了 OpenAI。请大家欢迎 Sam Altman 上台。
**English / Original**
PATRICK COLLISON: Good evening, folks. Really hope you’ve enjoyed the announcements and the sessions over the course of the day thus far. So I’m extremely excited about this interview. As you know, I was due to be interviewing Greg Brockman, who was a very early Stripe employee and then a cofounder of OpenAI. But AI is a dynamic space, and there’s a lot happening. And so we’ve made a slight substitution. And so instead I’m going to be interviewing somebody that I’ve known for a long time. I was just counting backstage. I think I’ve known him for 18, maybe 19 years. He was actually Stripe’s, one of the very earliest investors in Stripe. I think maybe Stripe’s second or third investor. And he also cofounded OpenAI in 2015. So please welcome to the stage Sam Altman.
## paragraph 14
**中文**
好的。看来现场有不少 Codex 的粉丝。
**English / Original**
All right. I think we have some Codex fans in the audience.
## paragraph 15
**中文**
SAM ALTMAN：听到这个真开心。
**English / Original**
SAM ALTMAN: Love to hear that.
## paragraph 16
**中文**
PATRICK COLLISON：这周过得怎么样？
**English / Original**
PATRICK COLLISON: How’s the week going?
## paragraph 17
**中文**
SAM ALTMAN：非常有意思。虽然这一周很忙，但我很高兴来到这里。这是个意外的惊喜。
**English / Original**
SAM ALTMAN: So fun. It’s a busy week, but I’m happy to be here. This is an unexpected surprise.
## paragraph 18
**中文**
PATRICK COLLISON：感谢你加入我们，我们非常感激。今天早上开场时，我们有些任性地宣布：奇点从 1 月 1 日开始，因此今天是第 119 天。你怎么看？
**English / Original**
PATRICK COLLISON: Well, thank you for joining us. We appreciate it. So we opened this morning by saying that we’ve kind of arbitrarily decided that the singularity started on January 1st and thus today is day 119. What do you think of that?
## paragraph 19
**中文**
SAM ALTMAN：确实感觉我们已经以某种方式进入了起飞阶段。把今天猜作第 119 天也算合理，我不反对。
**English / Original**
SAM ALTMAN: It does feel like we are somehow in the takeoff. Day 119 feels like a reasonable enough guess. Yeah, I won’t fight it.
## paragraph 20
**中文**
PATRICK COLLISON：从去年底到今年初，我们开始看到不少指标出现拐点。此前表现也不错，但曲线的形状似乎变了，真正呈现出抛物线式增长。这与你们看到的情况一致吗？这期间是否发生了某种轨迹变化？我们为什么会看到这种现象？
**English / Original**
PATRICK COLLISON: So we’ve started to see a bunch of our metrics inflect as of late last year, beginning of this year. I mean, things were kind of doing well, but somehow the shapes of the curves changed. They really went parabolic. Is that matched in what you guys see? Was there some trajectory change around? Why are we seeing this?
## paragraph 21
**中文**
SAM ALTMAN：我确实认为模型从去年底、今年很早的时候开始变得非常出色，尤其是在编程方面，但总体上也都很强。至少从我自己使用这项技术、观察其他人如何使用，以及感受到如今每一周都和前一周略有不同的经验来看，很多事情都在极短时间内发生。这一切似乎都与模型跨过了某个门槛有关。
**English / Original**
SAM ALTMAN: I do think the models got really good, especially for coding, but really good in general starting late last year, very early this year. And at least in my own experience of using this technology and seeing what other people are doing with it and also this sense that every week is now a little bit different than the week before. It’s just like a lot happens very fast. It seemed to all correlate with the models hitting some threshold.
## paragraph 22
**中文**
PATRICK COLLISON：为什么编程模型在过去几个月突然开窍了？是某个研究诀窍，还是预训练里终于有了足够多的代码数据？为什么它突然就开始奏效？
**English / Original**
PATRICK COLLISON: And why did coding models suddenly start to click over the last couple of months? Was there a research trick? Was it just got enough code data in the pre—why did it suddenly start to work?
## paragraph 23
**中文**
SAM ALTMAN：这是个很好的问题。我们也一直在琢磨，为什么好几家几乎同时跨过了那个门槛。我确信是多种因素共同作用：模型智能，也就是纯粹的推理能力；足够多的人用它编程，从而形成反馈闭环，让我们知道它擅长什么、哪里需要改进；还有足够的数据。我认为是这些因素叠加的结果。另外就像许多其他事业一样，一旦知道某件事确实可行，人们就更容易全力以赴地把它做出来。
**English / Original**
SAM ALTMAN: Yeah, it’s a great question. We wondered a lot about why kinda several people cross that threshold at the same time. I’m sure it’s a number of factors, but model intelligence, just the raw kind of reasoning horsepower, enough of a feedback loop of people using it for code to figure out where it was good and where you needed to improve it. Enough data. I think it was like all of these things. And then also there was like a, like many other endeavors, once you know something’s possible, it’s much easier to go do it with vigor.
## paragraph 24
**中文**
PATRICK COLLISON：所以，Codex 现在似乎正迎来它的高光时刻。
**English / Original**
PATRICK COLLISON: And so it seems like Codex is kind of having a moment right now.
## paragraph 25
**中文**
SAM ALTMAN：在最新的应用更新和 5.5 之后，它对我而言跨过了某个主观门槛。现在为何恰好是这个时点，而不是稍早一些或等到下一代模型，其实很难解释。从我们历次发布产品的历史中，我学到的一点是：很难说清为什么偏偏是这个东西奏效。ChatGPT 也是如此。为什么 GPT-3.5 跨过了门槛，让大多数人从“没那么惊艳”转而认为它“将改变世界”？为什么不是前一代或后一代模型？我真的解释不了，你就是能感觉到。Codex 给我带来过两次拐点：一次大致是在 GPT-5.2 时，另一次则是过去几周的巨大跃迁，让我觉得：好吧，它将成为我使用计算机的主要界面。
**English / Original**
SAM ALTMAN: It crossed some subjective threshold for me with the latest app updates and 5.5. And this is also, it’s quite hard to say why right now and not a little bit sooner or why not the next model, but one of the things I have learned about the history of all of the things we’ve put out is it is very hard to say why this particular thing was the thing that worked. And this goes back to ChatGPT. Why was GPT-3.5 the thing that got over the threshold where most people went from saying not that impressive to like going to change the world? And why not one model earlier or later? I really can’t explain it. You just kind of feel it. And I’ve had two inflection points with Codex. One was kind of with GPT-5.2 and then a really big one in the last few weeks where it’s like, okay, this is going to be the primary interface to a computer for me.
## paragraph 26
**中文**
PATRICK COLLISON：大家都是用它来编程吗？还是已经开始扩散到其他领域？
**English / Original**
PATRICK COLLISON: And is everyone using it for coding or are you starting to see usage diffuse into other domains?
## paragraph 27
**中文**
SAM ALTMAN：我认为最狂热的用户仍主要拿它编程，但最近涌入 Codex 的人如潮水一般。我一直在努力理解究竟发生了什么、是什么促成了这一点。人们使用或开始使用它的深度令我惊讶。当然，我们的目标绝不只是编程，而是覆盖你在电脑前完成的一切工作。我会说，在非编程任务上我们可能只走了 10%。但现在我们已经看到真实的使用行为，也有一批真正以其他方式使用它的用户，我认为我们会非常快地把这些能力做好。
**English / Original**
SAM ALTMAN: I think the most adamant users are still using it for coding, but there’s been just this tidal wave of people coming into Codex recently and I’m really trying to understand what has happened that this is—causing this and the depth of what people are using it for or starting to use it for has surprised me. So certainly our ambition is for it not just to be about coding, but to be about all the work you do in front of a computer. And I would say we’re maybe like 10% of the way there for the non-coding stuff, but now that we see what’s happening, now we have a real user base sort of using it in these other ways, I think we’ll get good at it very fast.
## paragraph 28
**中文**
PATRICK COLLISON：继编程之后，你认为下一个会主观上带来巨大解锁感的领域是什么？电子表格、绩效评估，还是别的什么？
**English / Original**
PATRICK COLLISON: What do you think will be the next domain that subjectively feels like it has this big unlock after coding? It’s going to be spreadsheets, will it be performance reviews, what’s it going to be?
## paragraph 29
**中文**
SAM ALTMAN：我认为会有很多领域。首先，编程确实有些特殊，这些模型与编程非常契合；世界需要的代码远多于现在实际写出的数量。也许没有其他领域完全像编程，但我认为会有很多领域相当接近。下一个类似编程的突破，我认为并非某个特定领域，而是人们会意识到自己为了使用电脑浪费了多少时间，以及一天中有多大比例的工作可以换一种完全不同的方式完成。你可能没意识到，自己花了多少时间在不同消息应用间来回点击、复制粘贴、回复那些显然可以一次性自动化的枯燥事务。大多数人将会惊讶地发现，自己可以坐在一旁，看着 AI 完成绝大多数苦差事。
**English / Original**
SAM ALTMAN: So I think there will be a lot of... First of all, I do think coding’s a little bit special, and these models are a great fit for coding. The world needs so much more code than currently gets written. There may be no other domain that is quite like coding, but there will be a lot of others that I think are close. But the next kind of coding-like thing that I think will happen is not any specific domain, but the realization of how much time people waste trying to use a computer and the idea that you can do a huge percentage of your day in a very different way and maybe you don’t realize how much time you spend clicking between messaging apps and copying and pasting stuff and responding to very boring things that you could clearly automate once, but the degree to which most people will realize they can sit back and watch an AI do most of their drudgery is going to surprise people.
## paragraph 30
**中文**
以我自己的经验，用这种方式工作确实让我更享受工作。我以前没意识到那些琐碎小事会如此拖累我，把我从一种愉快的心流状态之类的感觉中拉出来。因此，主观生活质量的提升非常巨大。
**English / Original**
And in my own experience trying to work that way actually gives me much more enjoyment of work. I didn’t realize how much the little stuff drags me down, gets me out of a sort of happy flow state or whatever. So the subjective quality of life improvement is huge.
## paragraph 31
**中文**
PATRICK COLLISON：你使用 OpenClaw 吗？
**English / Original**
PATRICK COLLISON: Are you an OpenClaw user?
## paragraph 32
**中文**
SAM ALTMAN：我用。
**English / Original**
SAM ALTMAN: I am.
## paragraph 33
**中文**
PATRICK COLLISON：现场有 OpenClaw 用户吗？
**English / Original**
PATRICK COLLISON: OpenClaw users here?
## paragraph 34
**中文**
SAM ALTMAN：我们很快会给大家带来一些好消息。
**English / Original**
SAM ALTMAN: We have some good news for you all coming.
## paragraph 35
**中文**
PATRICK COLLISON：你现在就可以告诉他们。
**English / Original**
PATRICK COLLISON: You can just tell them.
## paragraph 36
**中文**
SAM ALTMAN：OpenClaw 带给我的，是这个领域里最强烈的“这就是魔法般的 AGI”时刻之一。我还记得第一次有人向我介绍它时，对方努力解释，我心想：“好吧，听起来都很酷，但其中很多东西我自己也能做出来。”后来它真正提醒了我：当模型跨过某个门槛，同时产品设计者又把少数几个关键理念做得恰到好处时，实际体验会比语言描述出来的神奇得多。
**English / Original**
SAM ALTMAN: OpenClaw has been one of my biggest, like, this is magic AGI moments ever in the field. I remember the first time someone told me about it, they were trying to explain it and I was like, “OK, that all sounds cool, but I can make a lot of that work.” And then it was a real reminder how when the models cross some threshold and also the product designer gets a handful of critical ideas really right, it’s like a much more magical experience than it sounds like.
## paragraph 37
**中文**
PATRICK COLLISON：我一直想当 OpenClaw 的布道者，也试着把你刚才描述的体验讲给别人听，却发现很难传达。它听起来其实很普通，对吧？就是一个有状态的 ChatGPT 会话，还能使用一些工具之类。你用 OpenClaw 做什么？如果我们翻看你的消息线程，会看到什么？
**English / Original**
PATRICK COLLISON: I find I’ve been an attempting OpenClaw evangelist and trying to describe it; that experience that you just recounted to others. I find it a difficult experience to communicate. I mean, it sounds kind of prosaic, right? It’s a stateful ChatGPT session that can also make some use of tools and so forth.What do you use your OpenClaw for? If we scrolled your message thread, what do we see?
## paragraph 38
**中文**
SAM ALTMAN：说出来有点尴尬。每当遇到任何一种新的 AI 系统，我首先都会尝试的事情是——
**English / Original**
SAM ALTMAN: So this is like a very embarrassing thing to admit. The thing I always try first—
## paragraph 39
**中文**
PATRICK COLLISON：这里正适合坦白。
**English / Original**
PATRICK COLLISON: The perfect place.
## paragraph 40
**中文**
SAM ALTMAN：我首先总会尝试的，是做一个更好的家庭自动化界面系统。我是个家庭自动化迷，因为这类东西从来都不好用。
**English / Original**
SAM ALTMAN: The thing I always try first with a new kind of AI system of any sort is to—I’m like a home-automation nerd. And so to try to build a better home-automation interface system, because it never works.
## paragraph 41
**中文**
PATRICK COLLISON：从来都不好用。
**English / Original**
PATRICK COLLISON: Never works.
## paragraph 42
**中文**
SAM ALTMAN：一直都不好用。而 OpenClaw 是第一次让我搭出了自己满意的系统。我还做了一个一直想实现的消息应用，后来我改用了自己通过 Codex 做的版本。但 OpenClaw 第一次让我能够——我相信你也一样——不再被消息淹没。每天早晨醒来要处理这一大堆东西，是件非常不愉快的事。于是我想：“好了，我终于可以把它自动化了。”照理说，以前的系统也应该能做到，但当一切真的顺畅运行，而且你相信它会可靠运行时，那种体验很难用语言解释。
**English / Original**
SAM ALTMAN: It never is good. And OpenClaw was the first time that I was able to get a setup that I was happy with. I also built a messaging app that I had always wanted to work. I’ve since switched it to something I built with Codex, but OpenClaw was the first time I was able to—I’m sure like you—could just feel like drowning in messages and it’s like this very unpleasant task to wake up in the morning and have to go through all this stuff. So I was like, “All right, I’m finally going to be able to automate this.” And that was like, again, should have been doable with previous systems, hard to explain what it’s like when it all actually just works and you trust that it’s going to work.
## paragraph 43
**中文**
PATRICK COLLISON：为了今天的发布，我在测试刚推出的新版 Link CLI。它可以让代理轻松获得一张能在任何商家使用的一次性卡片。于是我让代理在网上花不到 20 美元给自己买一件礼物，随便买什么都行。它最后选择在 Gumroad 上给自己买了一本 HTTPZine。
**English / Original**
PATRICK COLLISON: I was testing the new Link CLI that we just launched today in preparation for launch and I asked my agent to... It means you can easily get a single-use card they can use on any business. And so I asked my agent to go and buy itself a gift, just anything on the internet for under $20. And it chose to buy itself an HTTPZine from Gumroad.
## paragraph 44
**中文**
SAM ALTMAN：哇。无论你在理智上多么确信它不是真正想要给自己买礼物的实体，也无论你多么确信这只是某种奇怪的涌现行为、不该过度解读，有些事情还是会让人觉得有点怪。我们准备为 GPT-5.5 办一场派对，会邀请重度用户之类的人，但我不太确定具体怎么办。今天早上一时兴起，我想：不如问问 5.5 XX-high，它希望自己的派对是什么样。于是我问了，它给出了一套很美的安排：希望派对按怎样的流程进行、不希望出现什么；应该在 5 月 5 日办，那会很有趣；只要一个简短的祝酒词，而且不要由我来讲，而要由构建它的人来讲；还希望设置一个关于 5.6 的大型集中建议征集，把所有建议都输入给它，它会确保我们着手处理。那一刻——
**English / Original**
SAM ALTMAN: Wow. Yeah. There’s all this stuff that feels, no matter how convinced you are intellectually that this is not a real thing wanting a real gift for itself. And no matter how much you’re convinced, OK, this is like a weird emergent behavior and I’m not supposed to read into this. There are these things that feel a little strange. We’re going to have a party for GPT-5.5 and I wasn’t quite sure we’re going to invite people who were big users and whatever, and I wasn’t quite sure what to do. And so on a kind of whim, I was like, I’m going to ask 5.5 XX-high what it would like for a party for itself this morning. And I did, and it was this sort of like beautiful set of things including like, here’s what I would want for the flow of the party, here’s what I would not want, you should do it on May 5, that would be funny. I would like only a short little toast and I want it not to be by me, but by the people that built it, I would like a big central suggestion for 5.6 and I would like you to feed them all into me and I’ll make sure we work on that. And it was—
## paragraph 45
**中文**
PATRICK COLLISON：现在你在道德上真的有压力，必须——
**English / Original**
PATRICK COLLISON: And now there’s real moral pressure on you to—
## paragraph 46
**中文**
SAM ALTMAN：嗯，我们会照做，但这确实是件很奇怪的事。
**English / Original**
SAM ALTMAN: Well, we’re going to do it, but it was a strange thing.
## paragraph 47
**中文**
PATRICK COLLISON：我想问问 OpenAI 本身。OpenAI 经历了很多疯狂的事情，现在它已经——
**English / Original**
PATRICK COLLISON: I want to ask you about OpenAI itself. A lot of crazy OpenAI, it’s now—
## paragraph 48
**中文**
SAM ALTMAN：这我知道。
**English / Original**
SAM ALTMAN: I am aware.
## paragraph 49
**中文**
PATRICK COLLISON：如今已经是一家成立 11 年的组织。
**English / Original**
PATRICK COLLISON: It’s an 11-year-old organization now.
## paragraph 50
**中文**
SAM ALTMAN：不知为何，感觉远不止这么久，但确实，我——
**English / Original**
SAM ALTMAN: Somehow feels like so much longer than that, but yes, I get—
## paragraph 51
**中文**
PATRICK COLLISON：准确说刚过 10 年，我想。
**English / Original**
PATRICK COLLISON: Just over 10, I guess.
## paragraph 52
**中文**
SAM ALTMAN：10 年，对。
**English / Original**
SAM ALTMAN: 10, yeah.
## paragraph 53
**中文**
PATRICK COLLISON：10 年，漫长的 10 年。
**English / Original**
PATRICK COLLISON: 10 years, a long 10 years.
## paragraph 54
**中文**
SAM ALTMAN：我现在已经不太记得 OpenAI 之前的生活了，感觉实在过了太久，不过确实如此。
**English / Original**
SAM ALTMAN: I can’t remember pre-OpenAI life that well at this point. It feels like it’s been so long, but yes.
## paragraph 55
**中文**
PATRICK COLLISON：你向前看有一个奇点，向后看也有一个奇点。那么，OpenAI 最疯狂、但从未公开讲过的故事是什么？
**English / Original**
PATRICK COLLISON: You have a singularity looking forwards, but also a singularity looking backwards. So what’s the craziest OpenAI story that’s never been told?
## paragraph 56
**中文**
SAM ALTMAN：与那些已经发生的疯狂戏剧相比，这听起来非常平淡。不过有一段时期，是我们训练完 GPT-4 之后、正式发布之前，中间隔了大约八个月。在这八个月里，OpenAI 内部所有人都在使用它。我们知道它好得多、截然不同，并将为世界解锁许多事情，但公司外几乎没人知情。有时我们走在走廊里会问：“我们是不是陷入了集体精神错乱？是不是彼此煽动，彻底陷入了这种狂热？”外部世界没有任何反馈能让我们保持清醒或校准判断。与董事会风波或马斯克诉讼之类相比，这听起来也许没那么离奇，但亲历那段时间，感觉不可思议地怪异。
**English / Original**
SAM ALTMAN: I mean, it sounds so prosaic relative to the crazy drama that’s happened, but there was this period after we had finished training... I guess there’s two that are kind of similar, but the one that just came to mind was after we had finished training GPT-4, there were about eight months before we released it. And so there was this eight-month period inside of OpenAI where we were all using this thing. We kind of knew that it was dramatically better and different and going to unlock a bunch of things in the world and no one outside the company or almost no one outside the company knew about it. We’d walk the halls sometimes. We were like, “Are we engaging in collective psychosis? Have we gotten totally—whipped each other into this frenzy?” And there was no feedback to keep us in check or sane from the outside world. And it doesn’t sound that weird relative to crazy board drama or Elon trial or something like that, but living through it was an unbelievably strange time.
## paragraph 57
**中文**
PATRICK COLLISON：Sam Altman 的管理风格是什么样？假如我直接或间接向你汇报，负责某个产品之类，会是怎样的情形？
**English / Original**
PATRICK COLLISON: What’s the Sam Altman management style? If I’m working for you directly or maybe indirectly; I’m leading some product or something. What does that look like?
## paragraph 58
**中文**
SAM ALTMAN：我肯定不是事必躬亲的管理者。我的风格非常明确：找到优秀的人，给他们一个很高层的方向，然后尽量让事情自然发生。我认为 OpenAI 迄今经历了两个主要阶段，正在进入第三阶段。第一阶段，我们只是一家研究公司；在构建 AGI 这件事听来彻底疯狂、我们也完全不知道该怎么做的时候，努力找出实现路径。第二阶段则是在继续研究之外，还必须学会如何打造一家产品公司。
**English / Original**
SAM ALTMAN: I’m definitely not a hands-on manager. I’m very much of this style that you get great people, kind of give them a very high-level thing to point at, and try to let stuff just happen. I think there have been kind of two main phases of OpenAI and we’re heading into a third and the first one was like we were only a research company. We were trying to figure out how we were going to build AGI at a time when it sounded completely, completely crazy and we really had no idea what to do. And then there was a second phase where in addition to continuing to do that, we had to figure out how to build a product company.
## paragraph 59
**中文**
现在，除了上述两件事，我们还必须想办法为全世界建造一个超大规模的 token 工厂。我把我们做的事情视作建设一种新的公用事业。人们会以各种方式需要大量 token、大量智能。我们必须让它尽可能聪明、廉价、充裕且易用。我认为这需要相当深入的全栈整合，以及极其庞大的基础设施建设。从第一阶段转向第二阶段时，我没有真正意识到自己的管理风格需要改变多少。经营研究实验室和经营产品公司是两件截然不同的事，我怀疑第三阶段又会非常不同。因此我一直在反思：如果真要做成这件事，我必须怎样改变。我认为这并不天然适合我的管理风格，所以我要么找到一位或几位极其优秀的人才，要么学会以不同方式做事，要么造出一个能管理这项新事业的 AI。
**English / Original**
Now we have to, in addition to both of those two things, figure out how to build this mega, mega-scale token factory for the world. I think of what we’re doing is building sort of a new utility and people are going to want to use a lot of tokens, a lot of intelligence, in all sorts of ways. We need to make that as smart, as cheap, as abundant, as easy to use as possible. And that will require, I think, pretty deep full-stack integration and a massive, massive infrastructure build out. The thing that I didn’t really appreciate between the phase one, phase two shift was how much my management style had to change. Running a research lab and running a product company are two extremely different things and I suspect this third phase is going to be very different yet again. And so I’ve been reflecting on if we’re going to really go do this, how I’ll have to change, and I think it’s not going to be like a natural fit for my management style. So I either have to find someone or a few people great to hire or I have to figure out how to do things in a different way, or I have to build an AI that can manage this new thing.
## paragraph 60
**中文**
PATRICK COLLISON：两年前我在这里采访 Jensen 时，他当着几千位亲密朋友的面告诉我，自己有 60 名直接下属。你有没有类似的超级反常做法？当然，我不该说他的做法反常——但你有没有那样的不寻常实践？
**English / Original**
PATRICK COLLISON: When I interviewed Jensen here two years ago, he told me and his several thousand closest friends about his 60 direct reports. Do you have any super weird, not that that—I shouldn’t call his practices weird, but do you have any unusual practices like that?
## paragraph 61
**中文**
SAM ALTMAN：我最接近这种做法的一点，大概是每天会通过 Slack、短信之类与公司里几百个人聊上几句，通常很快，来回一两条消息。不是代理代劳，真的是我自己做。有时由此获得的背景信息会以各种分散的方式给我很大帮助。
**English / Original**
SAM ALTMAN: I think the closest thing that I have to anything like that is I probably talk to, via Slack or whatever or text, a few hundred people at the company a day, very quick like one, two messages, whatever, not done by an agent. I actually do it, and the context I get from that sometimes is very helpful in these diffuse ways.
## paragraph 62
**中文**
PATRICK COLLISON：我觉得这里存在一条很有意思的分水岭：Slack 之前的组织和 Slack 之后的组织，它们确实非常不同。
**English / Original**
PATRICK COLLISON: I find there’s an interesting watershed of pre-Slack organizations, post-Slack organizations, and they’re truly quite different.
## paragraph 63
**中文**
SAM ALTMAN：完全同意。和许多人一样，我讨厌 Slack，但也无法想象还得继续用电子邮件或我们过去使用的其他方式沟通——
**English / Original**
SAM ALTMAN: Totally. Like many other people, I hate Slack, but I can’t imagine having to still communicate via email or whatever we used to do—
## paragraph 64
**中文**
PATRICK COLLISON：Stripe 大致还处在那种状态。
**English / Original**
PATRICK COLLISON: That’s roughly where Stripe is.
## paragraph 65
**中文**
SAM ALTMAN：是。
**English / Original**
SAM ALTMAN: Yeah.
## paragraph 66
**中文**
PATRICK COLLISON：好。我想谈谈你刚才含蓄提到的一件事。有一种观点认为，AI 实验室会沿着技术栈向上扩张，贪婪地吞噬价值链，不仅覆盖软件业，甚至可能进入其他行业；随后形成惊人的正反馈循环和失控增长，成为一种霸权力量，让我们所有人都该非常担忧。你怎么看？
**English / Original**
PATRICK COLLISON: Yeah. OK, I want to talk about, I mean, you kind of just elliptically referenced it. There’s a view that the AI labs are going to progress up the stack, gobbling up the value chain voraciously, all these things that are certainly within the software sector, but perhaps even other sectors and that there’ll be this incredible positive feedback loop and runaway and kind of hegemonic force that we should all be getting very concerned about. What’s your view?
## paragraph 67
**中文**
SAM ALTMAN：我认为有些实验室确实想这么做，但我们不想。我一直很钦佩 Stripe 的一点，是它显然与客户利益一致。我们规模越大、收入越高，付给你们的钱就越多。顺便谢谢你们。ChatGPT 发布时，与 Stripe 的合作至关重要，我不认为还有谁能如此迅速地扩展规模。我们扩张，你们收入增加，大家都很高兴。你们为互联网提供一层基础设施；互联网越大，你们高兴，用户也高兴，双方利益为何一致一目了然。
**English / Original**
SAM ALTMAN: I think some of them do want that. We don’t. One of the things that I’ve always admired about Stripe is it is very clear that Stripe is aligned with its customers. We make more revenue, we charge our customers more. Thank you, by the way. The partnership with Stripe when ChatGPT launched was extremely critical, and I don’t think anyone else could have scaled that quickly, but we scaled, we pay you more money. It’s like very aligned and we’re all happy and you just provide a layer of infrastructure for the internet. Internet gets bigger, you’re happy, your user’s happy, it’s clear what the alignment is.
## paragraph 68
**中文**
我还不知道具体怎么实现，但希望 OpenAI 最终也能采用类似模式。我愿意让它成为一家长期保持低利润率、只要规模巨大且高速增长就好的企业。我希望我们提供一种“智能计量表”——还不知道该怎么称呼——企业可以买来，用于自动化或加速内部事务，也可以用来构建产品；个人可以买来并随身使用。我们要找到办法，让自身利益真正与全球整个庞大而分布式的经济引擎的成功保持一致。我相信这能行。我也相信 AI 的切换成本不会太高，无论如何都很难在 AI 领域维持巨额利润率。
**English / Original**
I don’t know exactly how to do this yet, but I would like to get to a model for OpenAI that is similar. I would like us to be an infrastructure provider. I’d be happy for us to be a forever-low-margin-as-long-as-we-can-be-huge-and-growing-fast business. And I would like us to supply an intelligence meter, I don’t know what quite to call it, that companies can buy that they can use to automate things or accelerate things inside their company, they can use to build products. People can buy it, people can take it with them, and we find ways to really align ourselves with the success of all the entire gigantic distributed economic engine of the world. I believe that will work. I believe that switching costs of AI—it’s going to be hard to have like huge margins in AI anyway.
## paragraph 69
**中文**
比如最近已经有人看到，从竞争对手的编程产品切换到我们的产品有多容易。这其实正是 AI 变得更聪明的结果：做这类事情越来越容易，只要说一句“嘿，代理，替我做这件事”即可。但如果我们能提供一种公用事业，大家在其上构建产品，而我们把自己定位为这类公司，我认为这会非常强大，也能实现高度一致的利益关系。
**English / Original**
It’s like, you’ve seen recently how easy it is or many people have seen the switch from our competitor’s coding product to ours. This is actually a consequence of AI getting smarter. It’s easier to do things like this. It gets easier to just say like, “Hey, agent, go do this thing for me.” But if we can provide a utility and people build on top of that utility and we think of ourselves as that kind of a company, I think that can be quite powerful and very aligned.
## paragraph 70
**中文**
PATRICK COLLISON：关于如何经营——我们很乐意分享许多技巧。
**English / Original**
PATRICK COLLISON: Well, we’re happy to share lots of tips and tricks for—
## paragraph 71
**中文**
SAM ALTMAN：那太好了。
**English / Original**
SAM ALTMAN: That would be great.
## paragraph 72
**中文**
PATRICK COLLISON：……低利润率业务。很多人一直在含蓄地批评 OpenAI，有些甚至明确批评 OpenAI 采购了如此多的算力。我想——
**English / Original**
PATRICK COLLISON: …a low-margin business. So, many people have been either implicitly critical or in certain cases explicitly critical of OpenAI for procuring so much compute and I think—
## paragraph 73
**中文**
SAM ALTMAN：Codex 用户可不会这么说。
**English / Original**
SAM ALTMAN: Not the Codex users.
## paragraph 74
**中文**
PATRICK COLLISON：对，正是如此。大约两三年前——具体时间我记不清了——你就很引人注目地提出，当时看来荒谬惊人的建设规模数字。显然，这些数字看起来有多荒谬，如今正一天比一天不那么站得住脚。谈谈你对算力、资本开支和基础设施建设的看法吧。
**English / Original**
PATRICK COLLISON: Right, exactly. So, you, I think, were quite noteworthy for as early as, I don’t remember exactly, but in the order of two or three years ago, stipulating what at the time sounded like preposterous figures with respect to the magnitude of the buildout that would be required. And obviously the preposterousness of those figures now looks less tenuous by the day. Thoughts on compute, CapEx, the buildout.
## paragraph 75
**中文**
SAM ALTMAN：是，这会花很多钱。到目前这个阶段，我认为它显然会成为世界有史以来最昂贵的基础设施工程。收入正迅速增长以与之匹配，所以人们对此更安心了。我们发现的效率提升也令人难以置信，因此每块 GPU 能产出的价值会远超我原先的预期。不过正如人们常说的，当每单位智能的价格下降时，需求增长会超过线性速度；如果价格下降的同时，返回结果的速度也提升，这一点尤其明显。所以现在问“多少才够”，我没有好答案。从某种意义上说，只要价格足够低，智能需求实际上没有上限。我本来想说我们不会建造戴森球，再用数据中心覆盖它——但也许我们真会这么做。
**English / Original**
SAM ALTMAN: Yeah, it’s going to take a lot of money. I think this will be clearly at this point the most expensive infrastructure project that the world has ever undertaken. The revenue is rampant to meet it, so people feel better about that. Also, the efficiency gains that we’ve all been finding are incredible. So we’re going to get way more out of each GPU than I thought we were going to, but as has often been remarked, the demand goes up more than linearly as you drop the price of each kind of unit of intelligence, particularly if you can drop the price and the sort of speed with which you get it back. So this question now of like, what is enough? I don’t have a good answer to. In some sense, I think demand for intelligence at a low enough price is effectively uncapped. Now I was going to say we’re not, but maybe we are. We’re not going to build the Dyson sphere and then just like cover it with data centers, but maybe we do.
## paragraph 76
**中文**
PATRICK COLLISON：太空数据中心呢？
**English / Original**
PATRICK COLLISON: Space data centers?
## paragraph 77
**中文**
SAM ALTMAN：祝他好运吧。我甚至不觉得他是非常认真的。
**English / Original**
SAM ALTMAN: Good luck with that. I don’t even think he’s that serious about it.
## paragraph 78
**中文**
PATRICK COLLISON：我个人不认为我们正处于资本开支泡沫。我不是这方面的专家，这也不是 Stripe 的业务，但就我看到的数字与需求规模相比，似乎很合理。如果未来真的出现资本开支泡沫，我们怎样才能识别？
**English / Original**
PATRICK COLLISON: I don’t myself think that we’re in a CapEx bubble. I’m not an expert in this. This is not Stripe’s business, but just the figures I see relative to the magnitude of demand, it looks reasonable to me. If we were in a CapEx bubble in the future, how would we tell?
## paragraph 79
**中文**
SAM ALTMAN：人们很喜欢宣称有泡沫。我说不清为什么，但理智上多少能理解：那样感觉很有趣，也显得聪明。记者尤其喜欢谈论泡沫。所以每当某件事看起来有点荒唐时，大家都有充分动力写这类文章；当然，有时他们确实说对了，泡沫确实存在。但我从未弄明白，怎样区分别人喊“泡沫”的次数与真正身处泡沫的次数。我上一份职业是投资人，所以很想建立某种框架，判断何时该投入资本、何时不该，可始终没成功。我回头阅读聪明人在历史上不同节点的判断，会想：“哦，他完全说中了。”但再多读一点，才发现此前十年里他还这样说过十次。我不知道，没有答案。
**English / Original**
SAM ALTMAN: People love to proclaim bubbles, and I can’t articulate why, but intellectually I kind of get it. It does feel fun and it feels smart. Journalists in particular love to talk about bubbles. So there’s like ample desire to write about this when anything looks a little bit silly and clearly sometimes it’s right. There clearly are bubbles, but how you can discern between the amount of time someone calls a bubble and the amount of time you’re actually in a bubble, I have never figured out how to do. In my previous career, I was an investor, so I was quite interested in trying to see if I could come up with some sort of framework for this and figure out when you’re supposed to deploy capital or not. And I never was able to figure it out. I went back and I read what smart people had said at different points in history and I was like, “Oh, they called it exactly right.” But then I read a little more and they said it like 10 more times than the 10 previous years. I don’t know. I don’t have an answer.
## paragraph 80
**中文**
PATRICK COLLISON：经济学家预测中了最近三次衰退中的八次。
**English / Original**
PATRICK COLLISON: Economists are the people who have called eight of the last three recessions.
## paragraph 81
**中文**
SAM ALTMAN：但每次说中时，他们都特别开心。
**English / Original**
SAM ALTMAN: But they’re so happy when they’re right.
## paragraph 82
**中文**
PATRICK COLLISON：OpenAI 的业务在很大程度上依赖极有才华的人。据我理解，能力排名第 20、第 5 和第 1 的人之间，差距可能非常大，后果也很重大。而这些极有才华或效率极高的人，并非每个都特别容易共事。
**English / Original**
PATRICK COLLISON: I mean, your business, OpenAI, depends in a very significant way on super talented people and the difference as I understand it between the 20th most-talented person versus the fifth most talented person versus the most talented person might be quite large and quite consequential. And then these super talented or effective people, they’re not in every case super easy to work with.
## paragraph 83
**中文**
SAM ALTMAN：确实。
**English / Original**
SAM ALTMAN: No.
## paragraph 84
**中文**
PATRICK COLLISON：其中一些人非常友善，是极好的合作者；另一些则极具反传统精神和强烈意志，也很容易——总之，人性光谱中的各种情况都有。在这个对效能、技能和才华如此敏感的领域，当它与真实人类身上的种种弱点交织，你如何看待管理问题？你们容忍难伺候的明星人物吗？比过去更容忍还是更不容忍？会以特殊方式管理他们吗？你如何管理这里的顶尖人才？
**English / Original**
PATRICK COLLISON: And look, some of them are wonderful people and some of them are the most fantastic collaborators and some of them are very iconoclastic and strong-willed and they get easily—whatever, just like the full spectrum of the human condition. But I guess I’m curious, in a domain that’s so sensitive to this efficacy and skill and talent and so forth, kind of intersected with all the foibles of humans as they exist, how do you think about this? Do you guys tolerate prima donnas? Do you tolerate them more than you used to, less than you used to? Do you try to manage them in a special way? How do you think about managing elite skill here?
## paragraph 85
**中文**
SAM ALTMAN：有人当时在写一本关于 OpenAI 的书，对我说：“我想我弄明白了，你在推动 OpenAI 成事的过程中真正擅长、而且做得独一无二的事情是什么。”我说：“我很想听听。”我完全猜不到他下一句会说什么，根本无法预测。他说：“你找到了一种办法，让一群都认为只有自己有能力、或自己能力最强，并认为凡事必须按自己意愿来的人，共事足够长的时间，最终实现那些突破。这就是 OpenAI 的魔力。”然后——
**English / Original**
SAM ALTMAN: Someone was working on this book at OpenAI, and said to me, “I think I figured out the thing that you sort of were really great at and kind of did uniquely well in making OpenAI happen.” And I was like, “I would love to hear.” I have no idea what the next sentence is going to be like. I could not predict the next sentence. And they said, “You figured out how to get a lot of people who all thought they were the only capable or most capable person and everything had to go their way to work together long enough to figure out the breakthroughs. And that was the magic of OpenAI.” And—
## paragraph 86
**中文**
PATRICK COLLISON：好，那么诀窍是什么？
**English / Original**
PATRICK COLLISON: Okay, so what’s the trick?
## paragraph 87
**中文**
SAM ALTMAN：大量痛苦。即使人们彼此不喜欢，即使有人认为自己比别人聪明得多、方法也更好，我们仍有少数几项深度共享的信念。大家确实共同相信规模化和资源集中，相信要专注完成这一件事；也认为把它做好足够重要，所以愿意暂时放下各种个人冲突。OpenAI 最不寻常的一点是，在训练 GPT-3 时，整个组织绝大多数算力都投入了这一个研究项目。那时我们与试图从 DeepMind 招募的人交谈，他们会说：“这太疯狂了，会造就一种极其糟糕的文化。”
**English / Original**
SAM ALTMAN: A lot of pain. Even when people didn’t like each other and even when people thought they were much smarter than other people or had a better approach than other people, we had a few deeply shared convictions. We did kind of collectively believe in scale and concentrating resources and that we were going to do this one thing and that we thought getting this right was important enough that people were going to put aside various personal conflicts. One of the most unusual things about OpenAI was at the time we trained GPT-3, the vast majority of our compute at the whole organization was going into this one single research program and we would talk to people that we were trying to recruit from DeepMind at the time and they would say, “That’s insane. It’s going to create this terrible culture.”
## paragraph 88
**中文**
我们热爱音乐。总之，他们会说——
**English / Original**
We love music. Anyway, they would say like—
## paragraph 89
**中文**
PATRICK COLLISON：我们正在谈如何管理非同寻常的个性。
**English / Original**
PATRICK COLLISON: We’re talking about managing unusual personalities.
## paragraph 90
**中文**
SAM ALTMAN：对。
**English / Original**
SAM ALTMAN: Yeah.
## paragraph 91
**中文**
他们会说：“你必须平均分配算力，否则会形成非常有毒的竞争文化，还会出现这个那个问题。”而我们的做法是，带着坚定信念押注于这条路线。它不会让所有人都觉得完全公平，但这是正确的事。我们确实认为自己知道该做什么，也确实认为自己知道真正要走的方向。他们会说：“你们可能错了，其他事情也必须做，必须保留这个研究项目。”而我们的文化是：“我们要坚信判断、专注去做，忽略干扰。”事实证明，这非常好。
**English / Original**
They would say, “You have to like divide your compute equally, otherwise you’ll have this very toxic competitive culture and this thing and that thing.” And we would just take the approach that we’re going to bet with conviction on this. It’s not going to feel totally equal, but this is the right thing. And we do think we know the thing. We do think we know the direction we really want to go in. And they would say, “Well, you might be wrong. We have to do those other things. You have to have this research program.” And having a culture where we said, “We’re going to have conviction and do this and ignore the distractions was great.”
## paragraph 92
**中文**
PATRICK COLLISON：希望这届 Sessions 能让各位难以忘怀。
**English / Original**
PATRICK COLLISON: We hope this is a memorable Sessions for all of you.
## paragraph 93
**中文**
John 和我在 Stripe 一起做这件事已经很久了，我们从 2010 年开始。你和 Greg 从 2015 年开始；正如你所说，你们历经无数考验、磨难、直冲云霄的成功以及其他一切。
**English / Original**
So John and I have been doing this thing at Stripe for quite a while now. We started out in 2010. You and Greg started out in 2015 and, to your point, you’ve ventured through many trials and tribulations and stratospheric successes and all the rest.
## paragraph 94
**中文**
SAM ALTMAN：这个概括倒是轻描淡写得很漂亮，请继续。
**English / Original**
SAM ALTMAN: That was a nice little gloss-over, but go ahead.
## paragraph 95
**中文**
PATRICK COLLISON：我的意思是，与联合创始人成功合作十多年并不容易，更别说十年后合作看起来仍像最初一样顺畅。你如何看待这段伙伴关系？它为什么能奏效？你们如何让它取得这样的成功？
**English / Original**
PATRICK COLLISON: Thoughts on, I mean, it’s not easy to work successfully with a cofounder for now more than a decade and for things even after a decade to seemingly work as well as they did from the beginning. Just thoughts on that partnership, why has it worked, and how have you guys made it such a success?
## paragraph 96
**中文**
SAM ALTMAN：显然，你和 John 相识的时间比我和 Greg 更长，但我和 Greg 在 OpenAI 成立前也认识了很久。我认为共同经历确实很有帮助。我在 Y Combinator 观察到，判断成功与否最重要的指标之一，是联合创始人是否已相识很久——至少相对于他们的人生而言算很久。那些在申请 YC 前七天才通过联合创始人匹配网站之类临时组队的人，通常不太成功。并非绝无可能，我记得有一两个成功案例，但非常少见。我们彼此认识已有一段时间，拥有共同的价值观、历史和生态背景，也很清楚自己想做什么。我认为我们之间深厚的相互尊重和互补技能一直配合得非常好。
**English / Original**
SAM ALTMAN: Obviously, you and John knew each other for longer than Greg and I did, but Greg and I did know each other for a long time before OpenAI, and I think having the shared history really helps. One of the things that I had observed at Y Combinator was that one of the biggest predictors of success was had the cofounders known each other for a long time or at least relative to their lives for a long time and the teams that came together like seven days before applying to YC on a cofounder-matching side or whatever, that didn’t work too often. It was not impossible. I think there were one or two cases where it did work, but it was rare. We had known each other for a while and we had had a sense of shared values and history and ecosystem and we were clear on what we wanted to do and I think we had this deep mutual respect and complementary skillset that has just worked really well.
## paragraph 97
**中文**
我极其感激。经历任何创业过程都很难，尤其是如此高强度的创业；如果没有一个与你关系深厚、彼此信任的联合创始人，就更加艰难。我见过有人独自做到，但真的非常难。因此，我非常感激我们能共同走过这段历程。
**English / Original**
I’m extremely grateful. I think having to go through any startup experience, but particularly an intense one without a cofounder you have a deep connection, trust to, is really hard. I’ve watched people do it, but it’s very hard. So I am extremely grateful that we’ve gotten to do this together.
## paragraph 98
**中文**
PATRICK COLLISON：说到相关话题，我们一直在谈 OpenAI，但还有一整个由公司、初创企业和大型企业组成的生态系统在其平台上构建产品。此刻对创业公司来说显然很有意思：一方面，产品构建和营收增长的速度似乎前所未有。Stripe 的数据也清楚显示，企业达到各种重要门槛的速度远超以往。你是史上投资最广泛、最成功的创业投资人之一，也曾管理 Y Combinator。在这个时代，成功创始人的特质变了吗，还是仍和过去一样？
**English / Original**
PATRICK COLLISON: On an adjacent topic, we’re talking about OpenAI, but then there’s this entire ecosystem of companies and startups and enterprises that are building on the platform. It’s obviously an interesting moment in startups given on the one hand, the ability to build products and generate revenue at seemingly unprecedented rates. And certainly we see this in the Stripe data, like the number of businesses reaching thresholds, meaningful thresholds, is far faster than it ever has been before. You are one of the most prolific and successful startup investors ever. You of course ran Y Combinator. Have the traits that make founders successful changed in this era or is it sort of the same thing it’s always been?
## paragraph 99
**中文**
SAM ALTMAN：过去我们常嘲笑“只有点子的人”。有些人想创办公司，会说：“我有最棒的点子，但不能告诉你。我只需要找个程序员替我实现，之后就一切顺利了。”我们会取笑他们，因为他们通常不成功。我个人一直觉得这种说法很烦人，就像说：“我有一个绝妙的歌曲创意，只要那个拿吉他的人替我把它做出来。”所以这种模式行不通。YC 也有类似认识：没有技术型创始人的团队很难运转。突然之间，“点子派”开始复仇了，而这对世界其实非常棒，我完全乐见其成。很长时间里，我和 YC 乃至业内这一派最看重的创始团队要素都是技术能力。技术能力如今仍很重要，但现在，那些真正深刻理解用户、却完全不会编程的人，我也愿意投资。这是个重大转变。
**English / Original**
SAM ALTMAN: There was a time when we used to make fun of the idea guy. There were these people that wanted to start a company and they’d say like, “I have the best idea. I’m not going to tell you what it is. I have the best idea. I just need a coder to build it for me and then I’m going to be in great shape.” And we would make fun of these people. They weren’t that successful. And it was kind of always personally annoying to me because it would be like saying like, “I have a great idea for a song, and I just need that guy with the guitar to make it for me.” And so it didn’t work, and YC had a version of this, which is teams without nontechnical founders are difficult to get work. All of a sudden it’s like the revenge of the idea guys, which is actually awesome for the world. I’m happy, I’m here for it for sure. But for a long time, I think the most important ingredient that I looked for, YC looked for, that kind of this part of our industry looked for on a founding team was technical talent and that’s still very important, but now people who just really deeply understand their users and can’t code at all, I want to fund those people, and that’s a big turnaround.
## paragraph 100
**中文**
PATRICK COLLISON：如今该如何思考初创企业投资？一方面，AGI、ASI 或奇点可能只剩几年——谁知道究竟是什么；另一方面，投资期限或基金周期长达十年。二者如何协调？真能协调吗？
**English / Original**
PATRICK COLLISON: How does one think about startup investing these days? Because on the one hand you have a couple of years potentially to AGI or ASI or the singularity—who knows what? And then you have investing time horizons or funds with 10-year time horizons. How does that all fit together? Does it?
## paragraph 101
**中文**
SAM ALTMAN：现在要以十年为周期做任何事情，都需要真正暂时放下怀疑，但这大概仍是正确的生活方式。你不能说：“三年或五年后就有奇点，我们看不清那之后，所以干脆什么都不做、放弃一切或彻底疯狂。”你必须像世界仍会以可理解的方式长期延续那样生活。
**English / Original**
SAM ALTMAN: I think to do anything at this point on a 10-year time horizon requires a real suspension of disbelief and yet that’s probably the right way to live your life. I don’t think it works to say, “There’s this singularity in three years or five years, whatever, we can’t see past it, and so we’re going to do nothing or we’re just going to give up or we’re going to go crazy or whatever.” You have to live as if stuff’s just going to keep going in an understandable way for a long time.
## paragraph 102
**中文**
PATRICK COLLISON：OpenAI 会规划多远？
**English / Original**
PATRICK COLLISON: How far ahead does OpenAI plan?
## paragraph 103
**中文**
SAM ALTMAN：我们会签署期限 20 年的电力和土地协议。
**English / Original**
SAM ALTMAN: I mean, we sign 20-year power and land agreements.
## paragraph 104
**中文**
PATRICK COLLISON：产品方面呢？
**English / Original**
PATRICK COLLISON: And for the product?
## paragraph 105
**中文**
SAM ALTMAN：对于两年后的形态，我们有清晰愿景；再往后就模糊得多。
**English / Original**
SAM ALTMAN: I think we have a clear vision of what things can look like in two years, and then it gets much hazier after that.
## paragraph 106
**中文**
PATRICK COLLISON：不久前曾有一种说法：所谓 GPT 套壳及类似公司缺乏差异化、根基薄弱，会被模型能力上升的浪潮冲走——“套壳”这个贬义词本身也体现了这种看法。但现在叙事似乎有所逆转：人们不再谈套壳，而是谈“工具链”（harness），并认为工具链具有相当分量和重要性。我想知道你怎么看；对于那些以 AI 为关键赋能要素的企业，你如何判断它们未来的持久性？
**English / Original**
PATRICK COLLISON: So there was in the relatively recent past a narrative that GPT wrappers and companies of that ilk were, I guess as the pejorative suggests, undifferentiated and flimsy and be swept away by a rising tide of model improvements. Whereas now it feels like that narrative in some sense is flipping somewhat, where now instead of talking about wrappers, we talk about harnesses and harnesses are seen as having this significant heft and importance. And I guess I’m curious for your view on this and how you view businesses for which AI is a critical enabling component and their prospective durability.
## paragraph 107
**中文**
SAM ALTMAN：我的看法从始至终基本一致：作为企业，你应该站在“希望 AI 变得更聪明”的一边。在早期模型时代，如果你只是做 GPT 套壳，修补当前模型中下一代显然会改善的某个弱点，那么下一代模型大幅进步时，你就会很难过。反之，如果你所做的事情会随模型变聪明而受益——例如人们基于模型构建的各种优秀服务——你就会更高兴。工具链时代也是一样。我认为正确的理解方式是：数据中心、模型、工具链等整个组合共同构成一个集群，从中产出高度可用的智能。在它之上，有无数值得构建的东西；对这些业务而言，整个集群越来越好只会令你欣喜。如果你暗自希望它别再变好，因为你正在修补其中某个弱点，那么技术栈中某处的下一轮模型升级很可能就会把问题解决掉。
**English / Original**
SAM ALTMAN: I have kind of had the same view all the way through, which is you as a business want to be on the side of hoping that AI gets smarter and whether—in the early model days, if you were the GPT wrapper and you were like patching some kind of weakness in the current model that was clearly going to get better with the next model, if the next model was much better, you were kind of sad. If you were doing something that got better, like you’re making any of the wonderful services that people were building with the models that benefited from intelligence, you would be happier. I think the same thing in the world of harnesses. I kind of think the right way to think about this is like data center, model harness, like that whole thing is just this one cluster out of which comes as very usable intelligence, but there are so many things to go build where you’re just like happier for that whole cluster to get better and better and better. And then if you’re kind of secretly hoping it doesn’t because you’re patching some weakness in that, probably like the next model crank turn somewhere in that stack is just going to solve it.
## paragraph 108
**中文**
PATRICK COLLISON：你不断接触大大小小的 OpenAI 客户。观察当今最有效使用 AI 的组织时，若想出最令你印象深刻的三家，或其中一家，它们具体做了什么不同的事？现场所有人都知道 AI 很重要、应该积极使用，诸如此类；但在你看来，哪些具体做法让最高效的组织脱颖而出？
**English / Original**
PATRICK COLLISON: When you look at the organizations that are making the most effective use of AI today, I mean, you meet OpenAI customers constantly, large and small, if you think about the top three that have impressed you the most or the one that’s impressed you the most, what specifically are they doing that’s different? Everyone here knows, yes, AI, big deal, we should make enthusiastic use of it, et cetera, but what specifically differentiates those which in your opinion are employing it most effectively?
## paragraph 109
**中文**
SAM ALTMAN：这里有几个不同方向。我们共同的朋友、Shopify 的 Tobi Lütke，是我认识的第一位明确表示“我们经营公司将全面押注 AI”的首席执行官。他亲自下场，为各种事务构建 AI 自动化，也要求团队这样做，并说：“我们要找出如何用 AI 把所有糟糕的事情变好。”这不是 token 排行榜，也不是某种游戏化、可钻空子的机制；就是公司 CEO 宣布：“从现在起，我们做的一切都要用上 AI。如果你不这样做，我会不满意——或者说公司不允许这样。”后来其他人也展现出这种推动力。只要 CEO 明确表示“我们要实现自我自动化、自我加速”——无论内部如何措辞——并真正要求大家落实，最好自己也亲自实践，效果就会很好。我们准备尝试一个新实验：派一名 FDE 与企业 CEO 贴身合作，处理 CEO 所需的任何事情，尽可能把他的工作自动化。我认为，只要在企业领导者身上这么做，就会在整个公司产生很好的分形效应。这个办法有效，我们也会尝试帮助更多公司这样做。
**English / Original**
SAM ALTMAN: A few different directions there. A friend of both of ours, Tobi Lütke of Shopify, was the first CEO I knew that just said like, “We are going to be all-in on AI and the way we run our company.” And he got, himself, got his hands dirty just building AI automation of everything and made his team do it and said, “We’re just going to figure out how we take all of these things that are bad and make them good with AI.” And it was not like a token leaderboard, it was not some other kind of like gamified, hackable thing. It was just like the CEO of the company said, “We are now going to put AI into everything we do, and I’m going to not be happy with you, I guess, or we’re not going to allow it if you’re not doing that.” So that energy has now been done by other people, but when the CEO of a company just says like, “We’re going to automate ourselves, accelerate ourselves,” however they phrase it internally, and then really holds people to it and ideally does it themselves, that has worked very well. I think we’re going to try this new experiment where we start sending an FDE to work with like hands-on, just whatever the CEO of a company needs, work with them to automate their job as much of it as they can. And that I think will have like, if you just do it for the leader of a company, there’s like a nice fractal effect throughout the company. So that works and we’ll try to help companies do that.
## paragraph 110
**中文**
第二点，是在数据访问上采取一种令人不安的宽松态度。有充分理由不这么做，所以我还不会把它当成建议；你问的只是我在最高效公司里看到了什么。对小型初创公司来说，这比对拥有大量敏感数据、流程和合规制度的公司容易。它们会说：“好吧，我们要录下会议，让 AI 访问代码库、每一条 Slack 消息、每一封邮件和所有其他信息，并让公司每位员工都能以这种方式使用它。”看着两三人的初创团队配合 AI 完成一切，效果令人惊叹。我不知道世界最终会如何权衡数据隐私与 AI 效率，也认为某些监管规则必须为此改变，但它的威力实在很强。
**English / Original**
A second thing is being like uncomfortably permissive with data access. There’s huge reasons not to do this and this is like, I’m stopping short of recommendation. You just ask what I’ve seen from the most effective companies. This is easier for small startups than companies that have a lot of sensitive data and a lot of process and compliance in place, but saying like, “You know what? We are going to record our meetings. We are going to let this AI have access to our codebase. We are going to let this have access to every Slack message, every email, everything, and every employee at the company is going to get to use it that way.” It is amazing watching these two- or three-person startups and AI doing everything work. And I don’t know how the world is going to decide the trade-offs on data privacy versus AI efficiency. And I think there’s like some regulation that’s going to have to change for that, but it’s so powerful.
## paragraph 111
**中文**
PATRICK COLLISON：Tempo 是 Stripe 与 Paradigm 孵化的一条新公链，当然我们也与你们合作。它的主网刚刚上线，项目则于去年夏天启动，所以团队成立时间不长、规模也很小，只有二十几人。Tempo 团队在 Slack 中搭建了一套工具链，用来编排公司里几乎所有事情。你可以提出任何任务：“去读这些 Google 文档，把它们转成一批 Linear 任务，再写一个 pull request 来实现，然后部署，并用我们的日志分析工具验证部署确实成功。”代理会欣然调用各种工具完成全流程。看着整个组织——虽然规模小，但确实是一个由人组成的组织——在单个 Slack 频道里完成所有事情，感觉极其奇妙。我不认为这能直接扩展到 Stripe，但这是我第一次有你描述的那种体验：它对他们显然极其强大。我还不清楚怎样移植到我们这里，但它真的很不一般。
**English / Original**
PATRICK COLLISON: Tempo is a new blockchain that Stripe incubated with Paradigm, which obviously we’re partners with you guys on, and the Mainnet just launched, but the project launched back last summer. So it’s a relatively new and small team, a couple dozen people. The Tempo team set up a harness, a tool in their Slack installation for orchestrating pretty much everything at the company, everything. You can just ask any task, “Go and read these Google Docs, turn those into a bunch of linear tasks, then go write a pull request to implement them, then go deploy them and use our log analysis tool to test that the deployment actually worked.” And the agent will happily go and employ tool use across all of this. And it’s extremely trippy watching a whole org—a small organization, but an organization of people do everything in a single Slack channel. And I don’t think that would scale to Stripe, but it was the first time I had the experience you’re describing, which is it’s clearly incredible for them. I don’t quite see how to transpose it for us, but this is really something.
## paragraph 112
**中文**
SAM ALTMAN：亲眼看它运行确实非同凡响。我发现很多人就是无法——这里存在巨大的认知滞后——理解一个事实：你基本上可以随便向它提出任何要求，事情很可能都会发生。我自己仍会因为信任不足，没有充分相信某件事真的可以完成。我也不确切知道它怎样移植到更大的公司。似乎还缺少一层抽象，用来解决人类与 AI 如何在超大规模下交互。小公司的优势是，那里基本只有 AI，不必处理与所有人的接口问题。不过我们会找到办法。
**English / Original**
SAM ALTMAN: It’s really something to watch. And I find that a lot of people just can’t—this is where there’s a big overhang. They have not yet been able to wrap their heads around the fact that you can just kind of ask us anything and it’ll probably happen. I myself still find myself not trusting quite enough that it’s going to be possible. I don’t know exactly how it’s going to transpose to bigger companies. It does feel like we’re missing one more abstraction there, how humans and AIs are going to interface at massive scale. The advantage that these smaller companies have is like it’s just the AIs. They don’t have to figure out the interface with all the people, but we’ll figure it out.
## paragraph 113
**中文**
PATRICK COLLISON：开源 AI 将走向何方？它还有未来吗？
**English / Original**
PATRICK COLLISON: Open-source AI. Where’s it going? Does it have a future?
## paragraph 114
**中文**
SAM ALTMAN：当然有。眼下，人们显然想要更聪明、更快速、更便宜的前沿智能，大多数需求集中在那里；但开源也有大量需求，我预计随着时间推移，其相对需求还会增加。
**English / Original**
SAM ALTMAN: For sure. Right now, people clearly want smarter, faster, cheaper frontier intelligence and most of the demand is there, but there is also a lot of demand for open source and I expect that to increase relatively over time.
## paragraph 115
**中文**
PATRICK COLLISON：我想稍微谈谈科学，因为我知道你对此非常兴奋。这也与我投入一部分时间的 Arc Institute 有关。OpenAI 事实上有一个非营利基金会，最近还向 Arc Institute 提供了资助。稍后也许会谈具体情况；但首先，能否聊聊 AI 在科学中的应用、你所看到的进展，以及你如何从 OpenAI 基金会的角度整体思考资助工作？
**English / Original**
PATRICK COLLISON: So I want to talk a little bit about science because I know it’s something you’re very excited about, but it’s also relevant to something I spend some of my time on, which is the Arc Institute and OpenAI is in fact a foundation, a nonprofit, and recently made a grant to the Arc Institute. And so maybe we’ll get to the details of that in a second, but first you just want to speak a little bit to AI as applied to science, what you’re seeing, and just how you think about grant-making generally in the context of the OpenAI Foundation.
## paragraph 116
**中文**
SAM ALTMAN：总体而言，在 AI 与科学这个问题上，我希望从长期看，这会成为 AI、也就是这项技术，对人类生活质量最重要的贡献。如果我们能以快得多的速度发现新科学——无论是新材料、疾病疗法，还是其他众多成果——我相信从一阶近似来看，生活之所以改善，是因为我们更懂科学，继而知道如何据此创造东西并把它们带给大众。从几个月前的模型开始，尤其如今的 5.5，模型已经聪明到让优秀科学家表示：“我能想出更好的创意了。”模型也能取得一些虽小却重要的发现，科学进展速度将会加快。最终我们会拥有自动化实验室、机器人，并造出谁也说不准的东西，从而更快开展科学研究。如果过去需要十年完成的科学进展如今一年就能做到，其复利效应以及我们由此能够创造和发现的一切，都将极其可观。我认为这会非常了不起。OpenAI 基金会的一项重点，就是投入资金、专业知识和技术来加速科学，并相信成果会以美好的方式惠及世界。
**English / Original**
SAM ALTMAN: So generally on the AI and science question, I hope that this will be the most important contribution of AI, of this technology, to human quality of life over time and that if we can start to discover new science at a much faster rate, which can be like new materials or cures to diseases or any number of other things, like I believe that to a first-order approximation, life gets better because we understand science better and then we figure out how to build stuff with it and distribute it to people. Starting with the models of a few months ago, but really now with 5.5, the models have gotten smart enough that excellent scientists are saying, “I am able to figure out better ideas.” The models are able to make some small but important discoveries, and the pace of science is going to increase. Eventually we’ll have automated labs and robots and building who knows what, and we’ll be able to do science much faster. But if we can start doing like a decade of science of what it would’ve taken us in the old world in a year, the compounding effect there and what we’ll be able to do and discover will just be extremely great. So I think this is going to be incredible and this will be one of the big areas of focus of the OpenAI Foundation is basically like money and expertise and technology to accelerate science and trusting that will flow to the world in wonderful ways.
## paragraph 117
**中文**
PATRICK COLLISON：而且这将是一个规模很大的基金会。
**English / Original**
PATRICK COLLISON: And this is going to be a big foundation.
## paragraph 118
**中文**
SAM ALTMAN：是的，我认为它会成为最大的基金会之一，也许就是最大的；我认为它将是全球最大的基金会。我们的重点是科学，以及 AI 韧性，也就是帮助世界适应新技术带来的转型。我们非常高兴能支持 Arc。我认为它显然是 AI 与生物学结合领域最优秀的项目。如果借助这项技术、基金会资本，我们哪怕只能略微帮助人们改善健康、治疗疾病，推进我们随着对生物学理解加深而能做的这一整类事情，也会非常欣喜。我原以为这还需要更长时间，但看到 Arc Institute 的杰出工作后，现在觉得也许并不会太遥远。
**English / Original**
SAM ALTMAN: Yeah, I think it’s one of the biggest, maybe it’s the biggest, I think it will be the biggest foundation in the world. So we’re really focused on science and then AI resilience, like helping the world through this transition with this new technology in it. But we were thrilled to get to support Arc. I think it’s clearly the best sort of AI and bio effort, and if we can make even a small contribution to, with this technology and with the capital and the foundation, to helping make people healthier, treat diseases, this whole cluster of what we can do as we get better at understanding biology, we will be very thrilled. I thought that was going to take longer and looking at the incredible work the Arc Foundation is doing, I now think it maybe won’t be that far off.
## paragraph 119
**中文**
PATRICK COLLISON：播客播到一半时，通常会插入一小段广告。下面就是 Arc Institute 的插播广告。楼下设有 Arc Institute 展位，你也许会奇怪，它为什么会出现在互联网经济大会上。背景是这样的：Arc Institute 是我们四年前创办的机构，目标是力争开发出人类历史上首个复杂疾病疗法。所谓复杂疾病，是指同时涉及遗传因素和环境因素的疾病。大多数癌症、自身免疫性疾病和神经退行性疾病，都可以按这个特定含义理解为复杂疾病。人类从未治愈过任何一种复杂疾病，一种都没有。我们治愈了许多传染病，也知道如何筛查由单个遗传突变所导致的单基因疾病，但从未治愈过复杂疾病。
**English / Original**
PATRICK COLLISON: So you know in a podcast, midway through you might hear a little interstitial ad. This is your interstitial ad for the Arc Institute. There’s an Arc Institute booth downstairs and you might wonder why there’s—what it’s doing at the internet economy conference. And the context here is, so the Arc Institute is an organization we started four years ago and its goal is to produce hopefully the first cure for a complex disease in humans. So a complex disease is one that involves some genetic factors and some environmental factors. So you can think of most cancers, most autoimmune disease, most neurodegenerative disease, for example, as being a complex disease in this kind of specific sense. And humanity has never cured a complex disease, not one. We’ve cured lots of infectious diseases. We know how to screen for monogenic diseases for this one genetic mutation that undergirds it. We’ve never cured a complex condition.
## paragraph 120
**中文**
因此我们创办了 Arc Institute，目标就在这里。阿尔茨海默病是我们首先攻克的复杂疾病；我们希望借助 CRISPR 等新型基因组工程技术，以及 AI 的惊人进展，取得一些真正有意义的进步。机构成立只有四年，但早期成果非常令人鼓舞。Arc Institute 目前正在招聘首席技术官。去年——或前年？是去年——曾有一位 CTO 来 Arc 休假式工作，他就是 Greg Brockman，并完成了一些非常棒的工作。他帮助我们训练了 Evo 2，这是迄今训练过的最大生物学基础模型。但我们现在要找一位全职 CTO。我们想，这个人也许就在现场；即使不在，他的朋友或许在这里。如果你认识对此感兴趣的人，请到楼下 Arc 展位看看。以上就是插播广告。
**English / Original**
So we started Arc Institute, but this is the goal. Alzheimer’s is the first complex disease that we’re targeting, and our hope is that with both new genome engineering technologies like CRISPR and then the amazing advances in AI that we’ll be able to make some hopefully meaningful progress. And it’s only four years old, but the early results are very encouraging. The Arc Institute is currently looking for a CTO. We had one CTO do a sabbatical at Arc last year—last year or the year before—it was last year and his name was Greg Brockman and he did some great stuff. He helped us train Evo 2, which is the largest biology foundation model ever trained, but we’re looking for a full-time CTO, and we thought that, well, perhaps that person might be in this audience, and if not, their friend might be in this audience. So if you know somebody for whom that sounds of interest, go check out the Arc stand downstairs and that’s your interstitial ad.
## paragraph 121
**中文**
SAM ALTMAN：你先明确说这是插播广告，再开始讲，比直接插进去好多了。讲得不错。
**English / Original**
SAM ALTMAN: I think it’s so much better that you’ve labeled that as the interstitial ad rather than just doing it. That was good.
## paragraph 122
**中文**
PATRICK COLLISON：好。我们还没谈 Stripe。你是 Stripe 的——我想是第二位投资人。
**English / Original**
PATRICK COLLISON: OK. Well, we haven’t talked about Stripe. So you were the—I think it was second investor in Stripe.
## paragraph 123
**中文**
SAM ALTMAN：YC 是第一个吗？
**English / Original**
SAM ALTMAN: Was YC the first?
## paragraph 124
**中文**
PATRICK COLLISON：你和 Paul 当时其实在同一间厨房里同时投资。所以也许你才是第一个，我不记得支票递出的先后顺序了。
**English / Original**
PATRICK COLLISON: You and Paul at the same time in the same kitchen in fact. So maybe you were first in fact. I don’t remember in which order the checks were handed over.
## paragraph 125
**中文**
SAM ALTMAN：哦，对，是在他当时位于帕洛阿尔托的厨房里。
**English / Original**
SAM ALTMAN: Oh yes, this was then his like Palo Alto kitchen.
## paragraph 126
**中文**
PATRICK COLLISON：对。我们当时是两个满脸青春痘的少年，却提出要创建这家金融服务机构，听起来相当荒唐。你为什么投资？
**English / Original**
PATRICK COLLISON: Yeah, that’s right. So we were two pimply teenagers proposing building this financial services institution. It sounded like a bit of a ludicrous proposition. Why did you invest?
## paragraph 127
**中文**
SAM ALTMAN：老实说，他事先没让我准备这个答案。我见过很多创始人，而你和 John 是其中最令人印象深刻的两位，不限年龄；若只看满脸青春痘的少年这个年龄段，就更是我见过最出色的。事实证明我的判断显然没错。我早就听说过你，听 Paul 谈起过你，也在网上知道你。我注意到，你是在解决自己的问题，而且这符合我认为会在世界上兴起的一股大趋势。我深信商业会大规模迁移到线上，也会出现许多初创公司，这两点都说明它可能做得非常大。不过也没什么复杂的：我当时相信、现在仍相信，如果你能找到真正聪明的创始人和一个将会很大的市场，就应该投资，基本就是这样。
**English / Original**
SAM ALTMAN: Honestly, he didn’t tee me up for this. You and John were two of the most—I had seen a lot of founders and you and John were two of the most impressive founders of any age, but certainly of pimply-faced-teenager-age that I had ever met. I clearly was right about that. And I had known of you and I had heard Paul talk about you and I had known of you on the internet and I was struck that you were solving a problem for yourself and that it was sort of like, it fit a trend that I thought was going to be big in the world. I kind of really believed that commerce was going to move online in a huge way and there were going to be lots of startups and both of those suggested that this could be really big. But I don’t know. I was like a believer that if you can find really smart, and still am, if you can find like really smart founders and a market that’s going to be big, you should just invest and that’s kind of it.
## paragraph 128
**中文**
PATRICK COLLISON：根据你对世界的整体看法，以及 OpenAI 使用 Stripe 的经历、你从中观察到的情况，还有你认为 OpenAI 在未来和业务建设中会需要什么，你对 Stripe 应对 AI 时代有什么建议？
**English / Original**
PATRICK COLLISON: Well, just based on your general perspective in the world, but then also OpenAI’s use of Stripe and what you’ve seen from that and like what you see OpenAI needing and needing in the future and building the business and so forth, what’s your advice for Stripe on navigating the AI era?
## paragraph 129
**中文**
SAM ALTMAN：回答之前，我想先确认记忆：你当时做的那个项目，让你意识到需要支付功能，是因为你开发了一款 iPhone 应用，能把整个维基百科下载下来，因为你要去一个离线的奇怪地方；而收款特别困难，所以才——
**English / Original**
SAM ALTMAN: Before that, just to check my memory, the thing you were building, the reason you realized you needed payments was you had like built this iPhone app to download all of Wikipedia because you were going somewhere crazy offline, and it was like hard for you to take payments for it and that was like—
## paragraph 130
**中文**
PATRICK COLLISON：记得真清楚。
**English / Original**
PATRICK COLLISON: Good memory.
## paragraph 131
**中文**
SAM ALTMAN：是。好吧，我已经很久没想起这件事了。你问的是我对 Stripe 公司本身的建议，对吗？
**English / Original**
SAM ALTMAN: Yeah. Okay. I hadn’t thought about that in a long time. I think my advice more towards like Stripe as a company itself?
## paragraph 132
**中文**
PATRICK COLLISON：对，面向未来。世界正处在疯狂时期，很多事情都在变化、发生。你也从客户视角体验了 Stripe，那么你有什么不满和功能需求？
**English / Original**
PATRICK COLLISON: Yeah, going forward. It’s a crazy time in the world. There’s a lot changing, a lot happening. And again, you’ve seen Stripe from the perspective of a customer. So what are your complaints and feature requests?
## paragraph 133
**中文**
SAM ALTMAN：其实更像是，我现在正考虑 OpenAI 应该采用类似 Stripe 的模式，所以有一大堆问题想问你。在这件事上，我要向你学习的可能远多于你要向我学习的。我记得过去一些投资人自作聪明地说：“Stripe 会变成大宗商品。等所有公司规模够大，就会自己开发支付系统。”事实是，没错，市场上确实有多家支付提供商；但在实践中，只要产品做得出色，人们将来仍需要收款。如果你是一个优秀、讲道理的生态伙伴，不做疯狂的事，他们大概就会一直用你。我认为这套逻辑还会继续成立。每家公司显然都需要借助 AI 提高效率，也会这么做；但认为每家公司都会消失、一切都会彻底不同，这种想法并不对。也许将来需要相互处理付款的是代理，而不是消费者和商家，但钱显然总要以某种方式流动。我的建议是采用 AI，尤其在内部采用，用 AI 构建更好的产品；但不要假定整个社会经济体系会完全重构。我觉得世界在这件事上有些陷入妄想。
**English / Original**
SAM ALTMAN: Well, it’s more like I want to—now that I’m thinking that we should be thinking more like a Stripe-style model to have a bunch of questions. I probably have more to learn from you than you do for me here because I remember when investors outsmart themselves saying like, “Oh, Stripe’s going to be a commodity. When everybody gets big, they’re going to just build their own thing.” And it turns out that yes, there are multiple payments providers and yet in practice, if you make a great product, if you make a great thing, people are still going to need to take money in the future and they’re probably just going to stick with you if you’re like a good, reasonable ecosystem partner and don’t do crazy things. And I think that’s going to keep working. I think every company clearly does need to get more efficient and with AI and they will do that, but this whole mindset that every company is going to go away and everything is going to be completely different, like maybe it’ll be agents that need to handle payments between each other instead of consumers and merchants, but clearly money is going to have to move somehow and my advice would be like adopt AI, especially internally, use AI to build better products, but don’t assume that the entire socioeconomic system completely reconfigures. I think the world has gotten a little bit delusional about this.
## paragraph 134
**中文**
PATRICK COLLISON：除了 AI，展望未来十年，还有哪些技术和领域令你兴奋？
**English / Original**
PATRICK COLLISON: Apart from AI, as we look at over the next decade, just what are the technologies and areas that excite you?
## paragraph 135
**中文**
SAM ALTMAN：除了模型和产品层面的 AI，我现在非常着迷于数据中心基础设施。
**English / Original**
SAM ALTMAN: Sort of AI at the kind of model and product layer—I’m obsessed now with data center infrastructure.
## paragraph 136
**中文**
PATRICK COLLISON：这确实相关。
**English / Original**
PATRICK COLLISON: It’s relevant.
## paragraph 137
**中文**
SAM ALTMAN：我认为那里有许多很酷的事情可做。物理层、能源、机器人等方向会出现惊人的新技术，这套技术栈大概是我思考最多的。世界似乎终于在脑机接口方面取得了一点进展，我对此很兴奋。对于生物技术的进步，我既害怕又兴奋，但当然希望它能迅速改善。遗憾的是，我认为防御性生物技术很快会变得非常重要。我还对新型计算机界面感到兴奋。如今我们身处一个荒唐的阶段：仍受困于这些老旧设备和操作系统，却已经拥有神奇的新使能技术。Codex 很棒，但让它去“使用我的电脑”仍显得非常别扭：它要到处点击，而所有东西原本都是为人设计的，根本不适合 AI 使用。我们完全可以做得好得多。我认为还需要创造一整套新的互联网协议。大概就是这些。
**English / Original**
SAM ALTMAN: I think there’s so much cool stuff to do there. I think there will be amazing new technologies like at the physical layer, energy, robots, like that stack is probably what I think about the most. It does seem like the world is finally making a little progress on brain machine interfaces. I’m excited about that. I am excited about... Well, I’m both afraid of and I’m excited about progress in biotech, but I’m certainly hopeful that that can get much better quickly, and I think defensive biotech is about to become very important, unfortunately. I’m excited about new kinds of computer interfaces. I think we are in a insane area right now where we’re stuck with these kind of old devices and old operating systems and we have this magic new enabling technology and it feels like Codex is amazing, but it feels like very broken to be telling this thing to use my computer and then it’s like clicking around and there’s all this stuff that was made for a person but doesn’t really make sense for like an AI to go use. We can do so much better there. I think there’s a whole new internet protocol to make too. So those things.
## paragraph 138
**中文**
PATRICK COLLISON：你认为世界上第一座实现盈利的核聚变反应堆会在什么时候出现？
**English / Original**
PATRICK COLLISON: When do you think we’ll have the world’s first profitable nuclear fusion reactor?
## paragraph 139
**中文**
SAM ALTMAN：这取决于数据中心需求会把电价推到多高，也许会比我们预想得更早。我猜未来五年内。
**English / Original**
SAM ALTMAN: Depends how far electricity prices get pushed by data center demand, maybe sooner than we thought. I’ll guess in the next five years.
## paragraph 140
**中文**
PATRICK COLLISON：这是个大胆的预测。
**English / Original**
PATRICK COLLISON: It’s a bold prediction.
## paragraph 141
**中文**
SAM ALTMAN：希望如此。
**English / Original**
SAM ALTMAN: I hope so.
## paragraph 142
**中文**
PATRICK COLLISON：既然预测状态不错，就继续问一个：高超音速商业航空旅行呢？
**English / Original**
PATRICK COLLISON: Just going to hope we’re on a roll here: hypersonic commercial air travel?
## paragraph 143
**中文**
SAM ALTMAN：我没那么密切关注。高超音速是指大约 4 马赫吗？
**English / Original**
SAM ALTMAN: Don’t follow it as closely. Hypersonic meaning like Mach 4?
## paragraph 144
**中文**
PATRICK COLLISON：就按这个定义。
**English / Original**
PATRICK COLLISON: Sure.
## paragraph 145
**中文**
SAM ALTMAN：还要相当长一段时间。我不知道，超过十年吧。
**English / Original**
SAM ALTMAN: A good chunk of time. I don’t know. More than 10 years.
## paragraph 146
**中文**
PATRICK COLLISON：好。
**English / Original**
PATRICK COLLISON: Okay.
## paragraph 147
**中文**
SAM ALTMAN：也许略短一些，但大致如此。
**English / Original**
SAM ALTMAN: Maybe a little less, but something like that.
## paragraph 148
**中文**
PATRICK COLLISON：有没有哪些没有受到广泛讨论的科学技术领域，你认为会被 AI 大幅加速，并产生广泛的社会后果和影响？
**English / Original**
PATRICK COLLISON: Are there any domains of science technology that are not in the discourse in a significant way that you think will be accelerated a lot by AI and will have broad kind of social consequence and impact?
## paragraph 149
**中文**
SAM ALTMAN：有。我认为最缺乏关注的是材料科学。它听起来不够酷，而人们低估了世界在多大程度上由材料构成——我们所依赖的事物有多少取决于材料，以及 AI 能在这里推动多大的进展。这是一个极其适合 AI 的问题——
**English / Original**
SAM ALTMAN: Yeah. The one that I think just does not get enough attention is material science. It’s not a cool thing and I think people underestimate how much of the world is materials, like how much of what we depend on and how much progress AI can make. It’s such a beautifully AI-shaped problem—
## paragraph 150
**中文**
PATRICK COLLISON：比如发现新型催化剂。
**English / Original**
PATRICK COLLISON: Just getting new catalysts.
## paragraph 151
**中文**
SAM ALTMAN：完全正确。我预计这一领域会非常迅速地进步，以极其积极的方式影响所有人的生活，但现在得到的关注非常少。
**English / Original**
SAM ALTMAN: Totally. That I expect very rapid progress there and that it’ll impact all of our lives in a very positive way, and it gets like very little attention.
## paragraph 152
**中文**
PATRICK COLLISON：最后一个问题。从某种意义上看，至少某种形式的 AI 似乎不可避免：许多人正争相推进、建设数据中心及其他一切，因此有一种确定性。与另一个没有你参与的假想世界相比，你希望自己的具体参与会如何改变世界的轨迹？
**English / Original**
PATRICK COLLISON: Last question. It feels that in some sense, at least some version of AI is kind of inevitable. There’s lots of people rushing towards it and building it out and creating the data centers and all the rest. So there’s this kind of sense of determinacy. How do you hope that your specific involvement changes the trajectory for the world relative to some other counterfactual?
## paragraph 153
**中文**
SAM ALTMAN：我相信民主化、个人能动性与普遍可及，也相信每个人都应该拥有非常美好的生活。OpenAI 历史上最具争议的决定，是我们如今所称的“迭代式部署”。在发布 ChatGPT 时，很多人的想法是：这么做极端危险，绝不能做；只有这一小群一直研究 AI 安全的人可以知道即将发生什么，告诉世界本身就是信息危害，而且永远不应发布。必须把它锁起来，由我们在象牙塔里发现这些美好事物，再把成果分享给世界，但 AI 要掌握在我们手中、由我们控制。这让我非常不舒服。我当时认为、如今依然相信，避免这种权力集中极其重要。我们要为世界构建这项技术，让全世界能以各种方式使用它；其中许多用途会是好的，当然不会全部都好。让人们探索面前这片极其广阔的机会空间，虽然过程有时会混乱，而且我们显然会出于合理安全考虑设置护栏，但这等于给世界一份礼物；而世界将在其上为我们所有人创造一份更大的礼物。如果不让人们使用这项技术，试图把它锁起来——如今听起来也许理所当然，但在我们出现之前，这大致是从业者的共识方案——我认为后果会非常糟。我相信创业精神和创新，也相信人们大多是善良的，通常会用工具做出惊人的事情。我认为，我最大的一项贡献，无论已经发生还是将来发生，就是推动它成为一种民主化技术，让人们能够使用并在其上创造。
**English / Original**
SAM ALTMAN: I believe in democratization and personal agency and access and that everybody deserves a really great life. The most controversial decision we made in history of OpenAI was what we now call iterative deployment, but a lot of the thinking at the time that we released ChatGPT was, this was insanely dangerous to do. You can’t do this. Only this small set of people who have been thinking about AI safety can know what’s coming. It’s an info hazard to tell the world and it’s too dangerous to ever release. We have to keep this locked up and in our ivory tower, we will discover these wonderful things and we’ll share the fruits with the world, but we’ll have the AI and we’ll control it. And that sat very poorly with me and I thought then, and I believe now that it is extremely important that we avoid that kind of power concentration and that we build this for the world and the world gets to use it in lots of ways, some of which will be good, not all of which will be good, but that by enabling people to explore this very wide opportunity space in front of us, messy at times though it will be, and obviously we’ll put guardrails on it for reasonable safety, we will give the world a gift, but the world will build a much bigger gift on top of it for all of us and that if you don’t enable people with this technology and if you tried to keep it locked up, which again, now this may sound obvious, but this like was the sort of rough consensus plan of people working on it before we came along—I think that would’ve been really bad. I am a believer in entrepreneurship and innovation and that people are mostly good and mostly do amazing things with tools. I think my single biggest contribution has been, will be, whatever, pushing for this to be a democratized technology that people get to use and build on.
## paragraph 154
**中文**
PATRICK COLLISON：Sam Altman，非常感谢。
**English / Original**
PATRICK COLLISON: Sam Altman, thank you very much.
## paragraph 155
**中文**
SAM ALTMAN：非常感谢。
**English / Original**
SAM ALTMAN: Thank you very much.