# (77) NVIDIA: OpenAI, Future of Compute, and the American Dream | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner - YouTube
- Transcript ID: `pe6sw_e9gh0`
- Source tier: `youtube_auto`
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- Original source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pE6sw_E9Gh0
- Raw evidence: `data/transcripts/youtube/pE6sw_E9Gh0.json`
> 中文是派生翻译，英文是留存的源文本。中文未复核时，以英文和原始音视频为准。
## 00:00:00
**中文**
我认为，OpenAI 很可能成为下一家价值数万亿美元的超大规模公司。[音乐][掌声] >> Jensen，当然很高兴再次来到这里，也很高兴与我的搭档 Clark Tang 一同到访。真不敢相信…… >> 欢迎来到 NVIDIA。哦，这副眼镜很漂亮。 >> 你戴起来确实很好看。问题是，从此大家都会希望你一直戴着它，还会问：“那副红眼镜呢？”
**English / Original**
I think that OpenAI is likely going to be the next multi- trillion dollar hypers scale company. Okay, [Music] [Applause] >> Jensen. Great to be back, of course, with my partner Clark Tang. You know, I can't believe it's >> Welcome to Invidia. Uh, oh, and nice glasses. >> Um, those actually look really good on you. The problem is now everybody's going to want you to wear them all the time. They're going to say, "Where are the red glasses?"
## 00:00:35
**中文**
>> 这一点我可以作证。距离我们上一期播客已经一年多了。 >> 是的。 >> 如今你们超过 40% 的收入来自推理；而随着思维链推理的发展，推理需求即将迎来爆发。 >> 对，其规模将增长百万倍乃至十亿倍。 >> 没错。大多数人还没有真正理解这一点。这就是我们所说的新产业，也是一场工业革命。
**English / Original**
>> I can vouch for that. So, it's been over a year since we did the last pod. >> Yeah. >> Over 40% of your revenue today is inference, but inference is about ready because of chain of reasoning. Yeah. >> Right. It's about >> It's about to go up by a billion times, >> right? By by a million x by a billion. >> That's right. That's the part that most people have, you know, haven't completely internalized. This is that industry we were talking about. This is the industrial revolution.
## 00:00:59
**中文**
>> 老实说，从那以后，我感觉你我每天都在延续这期播客。按照 AI 的时间尺度，仿佛已经过去了一百年。我最近重看了上期节目，里面谈到的许多事情都很突出。对我而言最深刻的一点，是当时预训练似乎进入低谷，大家都在说：“天啊，预训练到头了，我们是不是建设过度了？”而你却斩钉截铁地反驳了这种看法。那大约是一年半以前。
**English / Original**
>> Honestly, it's it's felt like you and I have had a continuation of the pod every day since then. You know, in AI time, it's been about a hundred years. I was re-watching the pod recently and the many things that we talked about that stood out. The most the one that that was probably most profound for me was you pounding the table >> that you know remember at the time there was kind of a slump in terms of pre-training >> and people were like, "Oh my god, >> the end of pre-training, >> right? The end of pre-training. We're not going. We're overbuilding. This is about a year and a half ago.
## 00:01:30
**中文**
>> 你说推理不会提高到 100 倍、一千倍，而是提高到 10 亿倍。 >> 嗯。 >> 这让我们走到了今天的位置。你知道，你宣布了这项重大交易。我们应该从那里开始。 >> 我低估了。让我记录一下。我估计我们现在有三个扩展定律，对吗？我们有预训练扩展定律。我们有后训练扩展定律。
**English / Original**
>> And you said inference isn't going to 100x, a thousandx, it's going to 1 billionx. >> Mhm. >> Which brings us to where we are today. You know, you announced this huge deal. We ought to start there. >> I underestimated. Let me just go on record. I estimated we we now have three scaling laws, right? We have pre-training scaling law. We have post-training scaling law.
## 00:01:52
**中文**
后训练基本上就像让 AI 反复练习：它用许多不同方法尝试一项技能，直到掌握为止。为此必须进行大量推理，因此在强化学习中，训练与推理已经融为一体。 >> 这非常复杂，也就是所谓的后训练。第三项扩展定律则来自推理。过去的推理方式是一次作答，对吧？
**English / Original**
Post-training is basically like uh AI practicing. Yes, >> practicing a skill until it gets it right. And so it tries a whole bunch of different ways and and uh in order to do that, yeah, you've got to do inference. So now training and inference are now integrated in reinforcement learning. >> Really complicated. And so that's called post training. And then the third >> is inference. The old way of doing inference was one shot, >> right?
## 00:02:18
**中文**
>> 而新的推理方式是“思考”：回答之前先思考。 >> 是的。于是现在有了三项扩展定律。思考时间越长，答案质量通常越高。在思考过程中，系统会开展研究、核查事实、学习新信息，再继续思考和查证，最后才生成答案，而不是立即作答。
**English / Original**
>> But the new way of doing inference, which we appreciate, is thinking. So think before you answer. >> Yeah. And so now you have three scaling laws. The the longer you think, the better the quality answer you get. While you're thinking, you do research, you go check on some ground truth. And you you learn some things, you think some more, you go learn some more, and then you generate an answer. Don't just generate right off the bat.
## 00:02:41
**中文**
>> 因此，预训练、后训练与推理时思考构成了三项扩展定律，而不再只有一项。去年你已经预见到了这一点；今年你是否更确信推理需求会增长十亿倍，并推动智能水平继续提升？ >> 我今年更有信心。看看今天的智能体系统：AI 已不再只是单个语言模型，而是由多个语言模型构成的系统。它们并发运行，有的调用工具，有的开展研究，同时还处理多模态信息。再看看如今生成的所有视频……
**English / Original**
>> And so thinking, post-training, pre-training, we now have three scaling laws, not one. You knew that last year, but is your level of confidence this year in the inferences going to 1 billionx and where that will take the levels of intelligence is it higher? Are you more confident this year than you were a year ago? >> I'm more confident this year and the reason for that is because look at the agent systems now >> and AI is no longer a language model and AI is a system of language models and they're all running concurrently maybe using tools. Some of us using tools, some of us doing research and yeah, there's a whole bunch of stuff and it's all multimodality and look at all the
## 00:03:20
**中文**
生成视频的发展实在惊人。这也引出了本周所有人都在谈论的重大事件：几天前，你宣布与 OpenAI 的 Stargate 项目达成大规模合作。NVIDIA 将成为其优先合作伙伴，并可能逐步投资 1000 亿美元。OpenAI 计划建设 10 吉瓦 AI 基础设施；如果全部采用 NVIDIA 平台，对 NVIDIA 而言可能意味着高达约 4000 亿美元的收入。请介绍一下这项合作、它对你意味着什么，以及为何这笔投资对 NVIDIA 如此合理。
**English / Original**
video that's being generated. I mean, it's just crazy stuff. Yeah. >> It really brings us to, you know, kind of the seminal moment this week that everybody's talking about the massive deal. You announced a couple days ago with OpenAI Stargate where that you're going to be a preferred partner, invest hundred billion dollars in the company over a period of time. they're going to build 10 gigs and if they used Nvidia for those 10 gigs that could be upwards of 400 billion in revenue to Nvidia. So help us understand you just tell us a little bit about that partnership what it means to you right and why that investment makes so much sense for Nvidia.
## 00:03:53
**中文**
>> 我先回答最后一个问题，再从头梳理。我认为 OpenAI 很可能成为下一家价值数万亿美元的超大规模公司。 >> 好的。为什么称它为“超大规模公司”？ >> 因为它会像 Meta、Google 一样，以超大规模运营。
**English / Original**
>> So first of all that I'll answer that last question first and then I'll come back and present my way through. I think that OpenAI is likely going to be the next multi- trillion dollar hypers scale company. >> Okay. >> I think you and I >> Why do you call it a hypers scale company? >> Hypers scale like uh like Meta is a hypers scale. Uh Google's a hypers scale.
## 00:04:18
**中文**
>> 他们将提供消费者和企业服务，而且他们很可能成为世界上下一个数万亿美元的超大规模公司。是的。 >> 我想你会同意这一点。 >> 我同意。 >> 如果是这样的话，在他们到达那里之前进行投资的机会，这是我们可以想象的一些最明智的投资。你必须投资一些东西，你知道，>>对吧？
**English / Original**
>> They're going to have consumer and enterprise services and and uh they are very likely going to be the world's next multi-t trillion dollar hypers scale company. Yes. >> And I think you would agree with that. >> I agree. >> If that's the case, the opportunity to invest before they get there, this is some of the smartest investments we can possibly imagine. And you got to invest in things, you know, >> right?
## 00:04:40
**中文**
>> 事实证明我们碰巧知道这个空间。 >> 因此，投资于此的机会>> 这笔钱的回报将是巨大的。所以我们喜欢这个投资机会。我们不需要投资，对吧？ >> 我们不需要投资，但他们给了我们投资的机会。太棒了。现在让我从头开始。因此，我们正在与 OpenAI 合作开展多个项目。首先，第一个项目是 Microsoft Azure 的构建。我们将继续这样做>>并且这种伙伴关系进展顺利。我们将花费数年时间进行数千亿美元的建设工作，只是为了实现这一目标。
**English / Original**
>> And it turns out we happen to know this space. >> And so the opportunity to invest in that, >> the return on that money is going to be fantastic. So we love the opportunity to invest. We don't have to invest, right? >> And it's not required for us to invest, but they're giving us the opportunity to invest. Fantastic thing. Now let me start from the beginning. So we're partnering with with OpenAI in several projects. First the first project is the buildout of Microsoft Azure. We're going to continue to do that >> and that that partnership is going fantastically. We're going we have several years of buildout to do hundreds of billions of dollars of work just to do there.
## 00:05:13
**中文**
>> 对。 >> 第二个是 OCI 建设 >> 呃，我认为即将建设大约五、六、七吉瓦。因此，我们正在与 OCI、OpenAI 和 SoftBank 合作来实现这一目标，>> 对吗？ >> 这些项目已签约。嗯，我们正在努力。有很多工作要做。然后第三个第三个是CoreWeave，对吧？所以呃，关于 CoreWeave，我仍然在谈论 OpenAI。是的。
**English / Original**
>> Right. >> The second is the OCI buildout >> and uh I think there's some five, six, seven gigawatts that are about to be built out. And so we're working with OCI and OpenAI and and SoftBank to build that out, >> right? >> Those projects are contracted. Um we're working on it. Lots of work to do. And then the third the third is Core Weave, right? And so uh all of Core Wee 4, I'm talking about OpenAI still. Yes.
## 00:05:40
**中文**
>> 好的，这一切仍是在 OpenAI 的语境下。那么这项新合作究竟是什么？它是 NVIDIA 首次直接协助 OpenAI 自建 AI 基础设施。我们会在芯片、软件、系统乃至 AI 工厂各层面直接合作，帮助 OpenAI 成为能够自主运营基础设施的超大规模公司。这会是一项长期工作，并作为现有项目之外的增量。正如你所知，他们正同时经历两条指数曲线：第一条是……
**English / Original**
>> Okay. Everything in the context of OpenAI. >> And so so the question is what is this new partnership? This this new partnership is about helping OpenAI working partnering with OpenAI to build their own selfbuild AI infrastructure for the first time, >> right? >> And so this is us working directly with OpenAI at the chip level, at the software level, at the systems level, at the AI factory level um to help them become a fully operated hypers scale company that I mean this is going to go on for some time. And it's going to supplement it's going to supplement the amount of you know they're going through two exponentials as you know >> right >> the first exponential is the number of
## 00:06:20
**中文**
客户数量呈指数增长，因为 AI 能力与使用场景都在不断改善，如今几乎每个应用都在接入 OpenAI。这是使用量的指数增长。第二条则是每次使用所需计算量的指数增长。 >> 是的。 >> 没错。
**English / Original**
customers is growing exponentially and the reason for that is the AI is getting better the use case is getting better just about every every application is connected to open now >> and so they're going through the the usage exponential the second exponential is the computational exponential of every use. >> Yes. >> Right. Yes.
## 00:06:38
**中文**
>> 现在，不再只是一次性推理，而是在给出答案之前进行思考。是的。 >> 因此，这两个指数使它们的计算要求变得更加复杂。所以我们必须构建这些不同的项目。因此，最后一项是他们已经宣布的所有事情以及我们已经与他们合作的所有事情之上的补充。除此之外，它是附加的>>并且它将支持你知道的这种令人难以置信的指数增长。
**English / Original**
>> Instead of just a oneshot inference is now thinking before it answers. Yeah. >> And so these two exponential is compounding their compute requirements. And so we we got to build out these all these different projects. And so this last one is an additive on top of everything that they've already announced, all the things that we're already working on with them. It's additive on top of that >> and uh it's going to support the you know this incredible exponential growth.
## 00:07:03
**中文**
>> 你在那里所说的令我真正感兴趣的一件事是，你知道在你的心目中他们很有可能成为价值数万亿美元的公司。我认为这是一项伟大的投资。与此同时，你知道，他们正在自我建设。您正在帮助他们自行构建数据中心。因此，这里有四个，他们已经外包给微软来构建数据中心。现在，他们想自己建造全栈工厂。
**English / Original**
>> One of the things you said there that's really interesting to me is kind of you know they're going to be high probability multi-t trillion dollar company in your mind. I think it's a great investment. At the same time, you know, they're selfbuilding. You're helping them self-build their data centers. So, here to four, they've been outsourcing to Microsoft to build the data center. Now, they want to build full stack factories themselves.
## 00:07:24
**中文**
>> 他们想做他们想做的事，他们想基本上与我们建立关系，就像 Elon 和 X 之间的关系一样。 >> 正确。 >> 我的意思是，Elon 和 Exel 建造的。 >> 正是如此。但我认为>>这是一件非常重要的事情>>当你想到>>Colossus 拥有的优势时。是的，>>他们正在构建全栈。这是一个超大规模企业，因为如果他们不使用这些容量，他们可以将其出售给其他人。
**English / Original**
>> They want to do they want to they want to basically have a relationship with us the way that that Elon and X has relation. >> Correct. >> I mean, Elon and Exel built. >> Exactly. But I think that's >> this is a very big deal >> when you think when you think about >> the advantage that Colossus had. Yeah, >> they're building full stack. That is a hyperscaler because if they don't use the capacity, they could sell it to somebody else.
## 00:07:46
**中文**
>> 就像《星际之门》一样，他们正在建设巨大的容量。他们认为他们需要使用其中的大部分，但这也使他们能够将其出售给其他人。这听起来很像 AWS、GCP 或 Azure。这就是你所说的。 >> 是的，我认为他们可能会自己使用它，嗯，想想 X 的情况，他们可能会自己使用它。嗯，但他们希望与我们有同样的直接关系，直接的工作关系和直接的采购关系。嗯嗯 Meta 就像 Zuck 和 Meta 与我们一样，这完全是直接的 >> 嗯，我们与 Sundar 之间的关系，谷歌直接与 Satya 和 Azure 的合作关系。
**English / Original**
>> In the same way Stargate, they're building monstrous capacity. They think they'll need to use most of it, but it puts them in a position to sell it to somebody else as well. It sounds very much like AWS or GCP or Azure. That's what you're saying. >> Yeah, I I think they'll likely use it themselves and um just think the case of X, they'll likely use it themselves. Um but they would like to have the the same direct relationship with us, direct working relationship and direct purchasing relationship. Um uh Meta just as with Zuck and Meta has with us uh it's exactly a direct >> um our relationship with uh between us and Sunund and Google direct our partnership with Satia and Azure direct.
## 00:08:25
**中文**
是不是这样？因此，他们的规模已经足够大，他们相信是时候开始建立这些直接关系了。所以，我很高兴支持这一点，萨蒂亚知道这一点，拉里也知道这一点，每个人都知道正在发生的事情，每个人都非常支持它。
**English / Original**
Isn't that right? And so they've gotten to a large enough scale that they believe it's time for them to start building these direct relationships. So, I'm delighted to support that and and all of and and Satia knows it and Larry knows it and everybody everybody's aware of what's going on and everybody's very supportive of it.
## 00:08:41
**中文**
>> 那么，我觉得其中一件很神秘的事情，对吧？你知道，你刚刚提到了甲骨文 3000 亿美元的庞然大物他们正在建造的东西。我们知道主权国家正在建设什么。我们知道超大规模企业正在构建什么。你知道，萨姆说的是数万亿。但在华尔街关注你的股票的 25 名卖方分析师中，如果我看一下共识估计，你的增长基本上从 2027 年开始趋于平缓。
**English / Original**
>> So, one of the things I find mysterious, right? You know, you just mentioned Oracle 300 billion Colossus what they're building. We know what the sovereigns are building. We know what the hyperscalers are building. You know, Sam's talking in terms of trillions. But of the 25 sellside analysts on Wall Street who cover your stock, if I look at the consensus estimate, it basically has your growth flatlining starting in 2027.
## 00:09:06
**中文**
>> 2027 年至 2030 年增长 8%。好吧，这就是 25 个人从事的唯一工作。他们通过预测NVIDIA的增长率获得报酬。很明显>>顺便说一句，我们对此感到满意。 >> 对。听着，我们对此很满意。好吧，我们在定期击败数字方面没有遇到任何困难，>> 对吧？不，我明白。但是，但是有一个有趣的脱节。
**English / Original**
>> 8% growth 2027 through 2030. Okay, that is the 25 people in their only job. They get paid to forecast the growth rate for Nvidia. So clearly >> we're comfortable with that by the way. >> Right. Look, we're comfortable with that. Okay, we have no trouble beating the numbers on a regular basis, >> right? No, I understand that. But, but there is this interesting disconnect.
## 00:09:31
**中文**
>> 不，>> 对。我每天都会在 CNBC 和彭博社上听到这个消息。 >> 我认为这涉及到，你知道，其中一些问题围绕着，你知道，呃，短缺导致了他们不相信的过剩。他们说：“好吧，我们会给你 26 个积分，但是 27 个，你知道，也许我们会拥有太多，而你不会需要它。”但这对我来说很有趣，我认为重要的是要指出，你们的共识预测是这不会发生，我们还综合考虑了所有这些数字，对公司进行了预测，你知道>>它向我展示的是，即使我们进入人工智能时代已经两年半了，但仍然存在巨大分歧
**English / Original**
>> No, >> right. I hear it every day on CNBC and Bloomberg. >> And I think it goes to, you know, some of these questions around, you know, uh, shortages leading to a glut that they don't believe. They say, "Okay, we'll give you credit for 26, but 27, you know, maybe we'll have too much and you're not going to need that." But it is interesting to me and I think it's important to point out that the your consensus forecast is that this won't happen right and we also put together forecast uh you know for the company taking into account all of these numbers >> and what it shows me is still even though we're two and a half years into the age of AI a massive divergence of
## 00:10:12
**中文**
信念>>我们听到萨姆·阿尔曼说你说桑达尔说萨查说的话和华尔街仍然相信的东西之间，你再次知道你对此感到满意。 >> 我也不认为这是不一致的。 >> 好的。所以稍微解释一下。 >> 所以首先，对于建筑商来说，我们应该为机会而建设 >> 对吧？
**English / Original**
belief >> between what we hear Sam Alman saying you saying Sundar saying Satcha is saying and what Wall Street still believes and you know again you're comfortable with that. >> I also don't think it's inconsistent. >> Okay. So explain that a little bit. >> So first of all uh for the builders we're supposed to be building for opportunity >> right?
## 00:10:33
**中文**
>> 我们是建设者。 >> 让我给你三点思考，这三点会帮助你，希望你在未来对 NVIDIA 更加满意。所以第一点，这是物理定律点。这是最重要的一点，通用通用计算已经结束，未来是加速计算和AI计算。
**English / Original**
>> We're we're builders. >> Let me give you three points to think through and and and these three points uh it'll help you um hopefully uh be more comfortable with Nvidia in this future. So the first point and this is the laws of physics point. This is the most important point that general general purpose computing is over and the future is accelerated computing and AI computing.
## 00:10:56
**中文**
>> 这是第一点。 >> 因此，思考这个问题的方法是，世界上有多少万亿美元的计算基础设施需要更新。 >> 对。正确的。当它被刷新时，它将加速计算。 >> 没错。因此，您必须意识到的第一件事是通用计算，没有人对此提出异议。
**English / Original**
>> That's the first point. >> And so the way to think about that is there's how much how many trillions of dollars of computing infrastructures in the world that has to be refreshed. >> Right. Right. And when it gets refreshed it's going to be accelerated comput. >> That's right. And so the first thing you have to realize is that general purpose computing and nobody disputes that.
## 00:11:15
**中文**
每个人都会说：“是的，我们完全同意这一点。通用计算已经结束。摩尔定律已经失效。”人们说这些话。那么这意味着什么呢？因此通用计算将走向加速计算。我们与英特尔的合作伙伴关系认识到通用计算需要与加速计算相融合，为他们创造机会。
**English / Original**
Everybody goes, "Yeah, we completely agree with that. General purpose computing is over. Moore's law is dead." People say these things. And so what does that mean? So general purpose computing is going to go to accelerated computing. Our partnership with Intel is recognizing that general purpose computing needs to be fused with accelerated computing to create opportunities for them.
## 00:11:33
**中文**
>> 是这样吗？因此，>>通用计算正在转向加速计算和人工智能。第二，人工智能的第一个用例实际上已经无处不在，>>对吧？ >> 它在搜索推荐引擎中，>> 不是吗？在购物时。基本的超大规模计算基础设施曾经是执行推荐的 CPU，对吗？
**English / Original**
>> Is that right? And so one, >> general purpose computing is shifting to accelerated computing and AI. Two, the first use case of AI is actually already everywhere, >> right? >> It's in search recommener engines, >> isn't that right? In shopping. The basic hypers scale computing infrastructure used to be CPUs doing recommenders, right?
## 00:11:58
**中文**
>> 现在要使用 GPU >> 做 AI，>> 对吗？ >> 所以你只要采用经典计算，它就会加速计算人工智能。你认为超大规模计算正在从CPU转向加速计算和人工智能，然后现在这是第二点，只是为谷歌的Meta 提供支持，并采用他们经典的传统方式进行超大规模计算并进入人工智能领域>>这是数千亿美元>>并且因为如果你考虑到TikTok、Meta>>这就是谷歌，他们已经在要求工作负载了，所以今天地球上可能有40亿人
**English / Original**
>> Is now going to GPUs >> doing AI, >> right? >> So you just take classical computing, it's going to accelerated computing AI. You take hypers scale computing is going from CPUs to accelerated computing and AI and then now that's the second point just feeding the metas the Google's the bite dances the Amazons >> and take their classical traditional way of doing hyperscaling and moving into AI >> that's hundreds of billions of dollars >> and and because that may be four billion people on the planet today if you take Tik Tok meta into account >> that's Google into account who are already demanding workloads that are
## 00:12:40
**中文**
由加速计算驱动。
**English / Original**
driven by accelerated comput.
## 00:12:41
**中文**
>> 完全正确。因此，甚至没有考虑人工智能创造新机会的情况就变得简单了。这是关于人工智能将你过去做某事的方式转变为新的做事方式。好的。现在我们来谈谈未来。到目前为止，我只谈论了大部分关于>>的平凡的事情。 >> 只是平凡的事情。旧的方法现在是错误的。你要走了，你不会再使用呃呃燃油灯笼了。你要去电力。就这样。
**English / Original**
>> That's exactly right. And so there a simp without even thinking about AI creating new opportunities. It's about AI shifting how you used to do something to the way new way of doing something. Okay. And then now let's talk about the future. I just so far I've only spoken kind of largely about >> just mundane stuff. >> Just mundane stuff. The old way is now wrong. You're going to go, you're no longer going to use uh uh fuel light lanterns. You're going to go to electricity. That's all.
## 00:13:10
**中文**
>> 对。 >> 好的。你知道，你不再是螺旋桨飞机。你要去乘坐喷气式飞机。就这样。所以，你知道，到目前为止，你知道，这就是我所谈论的一切。然后>>现在令人难以置信的是，当你转向人工智能、当你转向加速计算时，会发生什么？ >> 由此出现了哪些新应用？这就是我们正在谈论的所有人工智能内容。
**English / Original**
>> Right. >> Okay. And you no longer, you know, prop planes. You're going to go to jets. That's all. And so, you know, so far, you know, that's all I've talked about. And then >> now that the incredible thing is when you go to AI, when you go to accelerated computing, then what happens? >> What are the new applications that emerge as a result? And that's all the AI stuff that we're talking about.
## 00:13:33
**中文**
这就是那个机会。它是什么？那看起来怎么样？嗯，简单的思考方式就是电机取代了劳动力和体力活动。我们现在有了人工智能。我谈到的这些人工智能超级计算机，这些人工智能工厂，它们将生成Token来增强人类智能，对吧？人类智力占世界 GDP 的 55-65%。我们称之为 50 万亿美元。
**English / Original**
And that's the that opportunity. What is it? How do what does that look like? Well, the simple way of thinking about that is where motors replace labor and physical activity. We now have AI. These AI supercomputers, these AI factories that I talk about, they're going to generate tokens to augment human intelligence, right? And human intelligence represents what 55 65% of the world's GDP. Let's call it $50 trillion.
## 00:14:00
**中文**
这 50 万亿美元将会因为某种原因而增加。那么让我们回到一个人身上。假设我要雇用一名 100,000 美元的员工。我用价值 10,000 美元的人工智能增强了价值 100,000 美元的员工。是的。 >> 10,000 美元的人工智能使 100,000 美元的员工的生产力提高了一倍、三倍。
**English / Original**
And that $50 trillion is going to get augmented by something. And so let's you just let's come back to a single person. Suppose I were to hire a $100,000 employee. And I augmented that $100,000 employee with a $10,000 AI. Yes. >> And that $10,000 AI as a result made that $100,000 employee twice more productive, three times more productive.
## 00:14:20
**中文**
我会这么做吗？心跳。我现在正在对我们公司的每个人都这样做。正确的。 >> 每个人的协作智能体。 >> 没错。每一个都是对的。我们公司的每一位软件工程师、每一位芯片设计师都已经有 AI 与他们协作。 >> 100% 覆盖率。 >> 因此，>> 我们正在制造的芯片数量更好。这个数字正在增长。我们的步伐是正确的。因此，作为一家公司，我们的发展速度更快。
**English / Original**
Would I do it? Heartbeat. I I'm doing it across every single person in our company right now. Right. >> Every single co-agents. >> That's right. Every That's right. Every single software engineer, every single chip designer in our company already has AIS working with them. >> 100% coverage. >> As a result, >> the number of chips we're building is better. The number is growing. The pace at which we're doing it is right. And so we're we're growing faster as a company.
## 00:14:46
**中文**
因此，我们正在雇用更多的人。我们的生产力更高。我们的顶线更大。我们的盈利能力更大。有什么理由不喜欢它呢？现在将 NVIDIA 的故事应用到世界 GDP 中。 >> 是的。 >> 因此，可能发生的情况是，50 万亿美元会增加到一个数字 >> 10 万亿，这 10 万亿美元 >> 需要在一台机器上运行。 M >> 现在人工智能与过去不同的原因 >> 在某种程度上软件是先验编写的 >> 然后它在 CPU 上运行，但它运行时不是一个人会操作它 >> 未来当然人工智能会生成Token
**English / Original**
As a result, we're hiring more people. Our productivity is greater. Our top line's greater. Our profitability is greater. What's not to love about that? Now apply the Nvidia story to the world's GDP. >> Yeah. >> And so what's likely to happen is that that $50 trillion is augmented by let's pick a number >> 10 trillion that $10 trillion >> needs to run on a machine. M >> now the reason that AI is different than it in the past >> in a way software was written a priori >> and then it runs on a CPU and it doesn't it runs it a a person would operate it >> in the future of course AI is generating tokens
## 00:15:28
**中文**
>>但是机器必须生成Token并且它在思考>>以便软件一直在运行，而过去软件只编写一次，现在软件实际上在它思考的时候一直在编写>>以便让人工智能认为它需要一个工厂。因此，假设 10 万亿Token产生了 >> 50% 的毛利率，其中 5 万亿Token需要工厂需要人工智能基础设施。因此，如果你告诉我，全球每年的资本支出约为 5 万亿美元 >> 我会说这个数学似乎是有道理的。
**English / Original**
>> but a machine has to generate the tokens and it's thinking >> so that software is running all the time whereas in the past the software was written once now the software is in fact writing all the time it's thinking >> in order for the AI to think it needs a factory. And so let's say that that 10 trillion of token generated >> 50% gross margins and 5 trillion of it needs a factory needs an AI infrastructure. So if you told me that on an annual basis the capex of the world was about $5 trillion >> I would say the math seems to make sense.
## 00:16:03
**中文**
>> 是的。 >> 这就是未来，对吧？是的。从 Excel 通用计算到加速计算，用人工智能取代所有超大规模，然后现在为世界 GDP 增强人类智能 >> 今天，我们估计这个市场每年约为 4000 亿美元。 >> 是的。 >> 所以您知道的 TAM 比现在增加了 4 到 5 倍。
**English / Original**
>> Yeah. >> And that's kind of the future, right? Yeah. the going from Excel general purpose computing to accelerated computing replacing all the hypers scales with AI and then now augmenting human intelligence for the world's GDP >> and today that market is about our estimate is about 400 billion annually. >> Yeah. >> So the the TAM you know is is a four to 5x increase over where it is today.
## 00:16:27
**中文**
>> 是的。昨晚，阿里巴巴的埃迪·吴 (Eddie Woo) 表示，从现在到今年年底，请原谅，从现在到本世纪末，他们将把数据中心的功率提高 10 倍。正确的。 >> 对。你刚才说多少钱？ >> 4 倍。 >> 就这样吧。 >> 就这样吧。 >> 是的。 >> 他们将把功率提高 10 倍。
**English / Original**
>> Yeah. Eddie last night, Eddie Woo at Alibaba said between now and the end of the year and excuse me, now and the end of the decade, they're going to increase their data center power by 10x. Right. >> Right. You just said how much? >> 4x. >> There you go. >> There you go. >> Yeah. >> They're going to increase power by 10x.
## 00:16:46
**中文**
我们与权力相关。 >> NVIDIA的收入几乎与功率相关。是不是这样？ >> 是的，>> 没错。是的。因为>>另一件事，他还说了什么？ >> 是的。 >> 他说Token生成量每隔几个月就会翻一番。 >> 是的。 >> 这句话怎么说来着？每瓦性能必须继续呈指数级增长。
**English / Original**
And we we correlate to power. >> Nvidia's revenue is almost correlated to power. Isn't that right? >> Yeah, >> that's right. Yeah. Because >> one other thing, what he what else did he say? >> Yeah. >> He said token generation is doubling every few months. >> Yeah. >> What's that saying? The the perf per watt has to keep on going exponentially.
## 00:17:08
**中文**
这就是为什么NVIDIA喜欢以每瓦性能来衡量它。 >> 每瓦特收入是，你知道，瓦特基本上就是未来的收入。 >> 嵌入这个假设，我发现它的历史背景非常迷人，对吧？ 2000年来，GDP基本上没有增长。好的？然后我们迎来了工业革命，GDP 加速增长。
**English / Original**
That's why Nvidia's like cranking it out with perf per watt. >> And revenue per watt is, you know, watt is basically revenues in this future. >> Embedded in this assumption, I find it very fascinating historical context, right? For 2,000 years, basically GDP did not grow. Okay? And then we get the industrial revolution, GDP accelerates.
## 00:17:31
**中文**
我们经历了数字革命，GDP 加速增长。基本上就是你所说的，斯科特·贝森也说过，他说，我认为明年我们的 GDP 将会增长 4%。基本上，你所说的是世界 GDP 增长将会加速，因为现在我们为世界提供了数十亿为我们工作的同事。如果 GDP 是固定数量的劳动力和资本的产出量，那么它就必须加速。
**English / Original**
We get the digital revolution, GDP accelerates. And it basically what you're saying, and Scott Besson has said it, he said, I think we're going to have 4% GDP growth next year. Basically, what you're saying is the world's GDP growth is going to accelerate because now we are giving the world billions of co-workers that will do work for us. And if GDP is an amount of output for a fixed amount of labor and capital, right, it has to accelerate.
## 00:17:57
**中文**
>> 必须，>> 对吗？ >> 由于人工智能技术的原因，它必须看看人工智能正在发生什么。而人工智能技术，我们就称之为大型语言模型和所有AI 智能体。它现在正在创建一个AI 智能体的新行业。毫无疑问。好的。那么，OpenAI 是历史上收入增长最快的公司，>> 对吧？而且它们正在呈指数级增长，对吧？所以，人工智能本身是一个快速发展的行业，因为人工智能背后需要一个工厂，对吗？
**English / Original**
>> It has to, >> right? >> It has to look at what's going on with AI as a result of the technology of AI. And that technology of AI, let's just call it the large language models and all the AI agents. It's now creating a new industry of AI agents. There's no question about that. Okay. So, so that's OpenAI is the fastest growing revenue company in history, >> right? and they're growing exponentially, right? And so, so AI itself is a fast growing industry because of AI needs a factory behind it, right?
## 00:18:27
**中文**
>> 其背后的基础设施。 >> 这个行业正在不断发展。我的产业正在成长。 >> 因为我的行业在发展，它下面的行业也在发展。能源正在增长。 >> 电源外壳。 >> 这就是 >> 这就像能源行业的复兴，不是吗？核能，你知道，燃气轮机。我的意思是，看看我们下面的基础设施生态系统中的所有这些公司。他们做得非常好。
**English / Original**
>> An infrastructure behind it. >> There's this industry is growing. My industry is growing. >> And because my industry is growing, the industry underneath it is growing. Energy is growing. >> Power shell. >> This is the >> This is like renaissance for the energy industry, isn't that right? Nuclear energy, you know, gas turbines. I mean, look at all of those companies in the in the infrastructure ecosystem underneath us. They're doing incredibly well.
## 00:18:54
**中文**
>> 每个人都在成长。这些数字让每个人都在谈论过剩泡沫，对吗？扎克伯格上周在播客上说，你知道，他说，“听着，我认为在某个时候我们很可能会出现空气袋，而 Meta 实际上可能会超支 100 亿美元或其他什么，但他说这并不重要。这对他的企业的未来至关重要，所以他们必须承担风险。但是当你想到这一点时，这听起来有点像囚犯困境。对。让我们再回顾一遍>>这些都是非常重要的。”快乐的囚犯。
**English / Original**
>> Everybody's growing. These numbers have everybody talking about a glutter bubble, right? Zuckerberg said last week on a podcast, you know, he said, "Listen, I think it's quite possible at some point that we will have an air pocket and Meta may in fact overspend by $10 billion or whatever, but he said it doesn't matter. It's so existential to the future of his business that it's a risk that they have to take. But when you think about that, it sounds a little bit like prisoners dilemma. Right. And walk us again through >> these are very happy prisoners.
## 00:19:28
**中文**
>> 再次带我们穿过右侧。今天，我们估计，到 2026 年，不包括元数据以及运行推荐引擎的 GPU，我们的人工智能收入将达到 1000 亿美元。好的。所以有>>或搜索或>>正确。还有其他的东西，但我们称之为 1000 亿。 >> 这个行业到底是什么？
**English / Original**
>> Walk us again through Right. Today our estimate is that we're going to have a 100 billion of AI revenue in 2026 excluding meta and excluding you know the GPUs running recommener engines. Okay. So there's >> or search or >> correct. So there there's other stuff but let's call it 100 billion. >> What is that industry anyways?
## 00:19:47
**中文**
>> 这个行业已经达到超大规模了吗？您所知道的数万亿之间的超尺度是多少？ >> 是的，正是在任何人从零开始之前，行业正在走向人工智能。你必须从那里开始。 >> 但我认为怀疑论者会说我们需要从 26 年 100 亿美元的人工智能收入增加到 2030 年至少一万亿美元的人工智能收入。好的。当你看看全球 GDP 时，你刚才谈到了 5 万亿美元。如果你确实进行了自下而上的研究，你能否找到在未来 5 年内从 1000 亿美元的人工智能驱动收入中获得 1 万亿美元的方法？我们的发展速度有那么快吗？是的。我会
**English / Original**
>> What is the industry already in hypers scale? What is the hypers scales you know between trillions? >> Yeah exactly by the way that industry is going to AI >> before anybody starts at zero. You got to start there. >> But I think the skeptics would say we need to go from a 100red billion of AI revenue in 26 to at least a trillion of AI revenue in 2030. Okay. You just were talking a minute ago about five trillion when you look at kind of global GDP. If you do did a bottoms up, can you see your way to a trillion dollars of AIdriven revenues from a hundred billion over the course of the next 5 years? Are we growing that fast? Yes. And I would
## 00:20:29
**中文**
还说我们已经在那里了。
**English / Original**
also say we're already there.
## 00:20:31
**中文**
>> 好的。所以解释一下。 >> 因为超大规模企业，他们从 CPU 转向了 AI。好的。他们的整个收入基础现在都是人工智能驱动的。 >> 正确。 >> 呃，没有人工智能，你就无法做 Tik Tok。 >> 正确。 >> 如果没有人工智能，你就无法制作 YouTube 短片。你不可能知道，如果没有人工智能，你就无法做任何这些事情。嗯，Meta 正在做的令人惊奇的事情，嗯嗯，你知道定制内容，个性化内容。没有人工智能你就无法做到这一点。所有这些东西过去都是人类，你知道，先验地做出四种选择，然后
**English / Original**
>> Okay. So explain that. >> Because the hyperscalers, they went from CPUs to AI. Okay. Their entire revenue base is all now AIdriven. >> Correct. >> Uh you can't do Tik Tok without AI. >> Correct. >> You can't do YouTube short without AI. You can't you know you can't do any of this stuff without AI. Uh the the amazing things that that Meta is doing for for uh um uh you know customized content, personalized content. You can't do that without AI. It's all of that stuff used to be humans, you know, doing uh content a priori creating four choices that are then
## 00:21:14
**中文**
>> 由推荐引擎选择。
**English / Original**
>> selected by a recommener engine.
## 00:21:16
**中文**
正确的。现在是人工智能生成无限数量的选择，对吧？ >> 但这些事情已经像我们从 CPU 过渡到 GPU 一样，主要是为了那些推荐引擎，现在它们正在 >> 在过去的三四年里，我认为这是相当新的。 Zuck 会告诉你我在 Sigraph，Zuck 会告诉你你知道他们在 GPU 方面肯定迟到了。
**English / Original**
Correct. And now it's infinite number of choices generated by an AI, right? >> But those things are already like we had the transition from CPUs to GPUs largely for those recommener engines and now they're going >> and that's fairly new I would >> in the last three or four years. Zuck would tell you I was at Sigraph and Zuck would tell you you know they were late getting to GPU for sure for sure.
## 00:21:37
**中文**
>> 用于元的 GPU 已经是几年半的事了 >> 这是对 GPU 的全新搜索 >> 当然 >> 全新的 >> 肯定是的 >> 全新的 >> 在 GPU 上搜索 GPU >> 所以你的论点是，到 2030 年我们将拥有一万亿美元的人工智能收入的可能性几乎是确定的，因为我们几乎已经实现了。好的，>>让我们从目前的情况开始讨论增量。
**English / Original**
>> GPUs for for meta is what couple years and a half >> it's pretty new search with GPUs >> for sure >> brand spanking new >> for sure for sure >> brand spanking new >> search for GPUs on GPUs >> so your argument would be the probability that we're going to have a trillion dollars of AI revenues by 2030 is near certain because we're almost already there. Okay, >> let's just talk about incremental from where we are.
## 00:22:03
**中文**
>> 现在我们可以从今天的情况开始讨论增量，对吧？当你自下而上或自上而下时，我刚刚听到你自上而下占全球GDP的百分比。 >> 是的。 >> 您认为我们将在未来三年、四年或五年内出现供过于求的概率是多少？ >> 对。这是我们不知道未来的分布。这是一种权力分配>>直到我们将所有通用计算完全转换为加速计算和人工智能。在我们这样做之前，>>是的，>>我认为可能性极低。
**English / Original**
>> Now we can talk about incremental from where we are today, right? As you do your bottoms up or your tops down, I just heard your tops down about percentage of global GDP. >> Yeah. >> What is the percentage probability that you think we'll have a glut will run into a glut in the next three or four or five years? >> Right. It's a distribution of we don't know the future. It's a distribution of power >> until until we fully convert all general purpose computing to accelerated computing and AI. Until we do that, >> yes, >> I think the chances are extremely low.
## 00:22:42
**中文**
>> 好的。好的。这需要几年的时间。 >> 这需要几年时间。 >> 是的。 >> 是的。让我再问一个，然后 >> 直到所有推荐引擎都是基于人工智能的。直到所有内容生成都是基于人工智能的，因为内容生成以消费者为导向的内容生成很大程度上是推荐系统等等，嗯，所有这些都将由人工智能生成，直到所有经典的超大规模公司现在转变为人工智能，你知道从购物到电子商务的所有内容，直到一切都结束>>因为但是当我们谈论数万亿美元时，所有这些新构建都是正确的。
**English / Original**
>> Okay. Okay. And that will take a few years. >> That'll take a few years. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. Let me ask one more and then >> until all recommener engines are AI based. until all content generation is AI based because content generation consumer oriented content generation is very largely recommener systems and so on so forth um and all of that's going to be AI generated until until all of the stuff what classically was hypers scale now transitions to AI you know everything from shopping to e-commerce to you know all that stuff until everything goes over >> because but all this new build right when we're talking about trillions.
## 00:23:22
**中文**
我们的投资超前于现状。嗯，你知道吗，这是随意的吗？即使你看到经济放缓或出现某种过剩，你是否也有义务投资这笔钱，或者你只是向生态系统挥舞旗帜，说退出并建设，在某个时间点，如果我们看到经济放缓，我们总是可以缩减投资水平。
**English / Original**
We're investing ahead of where we are. Um, you know, is that like at will? Are you obliged to invest the money even if you see a slowdown or a kind of a glut coming or is this one of these things that you're just waving the flag to the ecosystem to say get out and build and at some point in time if we see some of this slow down, we can always pull back on the level of investment.
## 00:23:44
**中文**
>> 实际上，情况恰恰相反，因为我们处于供应链的末端，对吗？因此，我们对需求做出回应。 >> 可以吗？现在所有的风险投资家都会告诉你，你们都知道 >> 需求是世界上计算短缺的原因，而不是因为世界上 GPU 短缺。 >> 好吧，如果他们给我订单，我就会建造它。
**English / Original**
>> Actually, it's the other way because we're at the end of the supply chain, right? And so, we respond to demand. >> Okay? And right now all the VCs will tell you and you guys know >> the demand the short there's a shortage of compute in the world not because there's a shortage of GPUs in the world. >> Okay, if they give me an order I'll build it.
## 00:24:03
**中文**
>> 嗯。 >> 对。在过去的几年里，我们确实对供应链进行了调查。因此，我身后的所有供应链，从晶圆开始到共同组装 HBM 存储器，您都知道所有这些技术。我们真的已经做好了准备。 >> 是的。 >> 如果我们需要加倍，我们就会加倍。 >> 是的。 >> 好的。所以供应链已经准备好了。现在我们只是在等待需求信号，当通信服务提供商、超大规模提供商和我们的客户制定他们的年度计划时，他们会向我们提供他们的预测，我们会对此做出回应，并以此为基础进行构建。
**English / Original**
>> Mhm. >> Right. We've over the last couple years we've really plumbed the supply chain. So all of the supply chain behind me from wafer starts to co-ass HBM memories you know all of that technology. We've really geared up. >> Yeah. >> If we need to double we'll double. >> Yes. >> Okay. So the supply chain is ready. Now we're just waiting for demand signals and when when uh the the CSPs and the hyperscalers and our customers uh do their annual plan and they give us you know their forecast um we respond to that and we build to that.
## 00:24:34
**中文**
>> 现在发生的事情当然是，他们向我们提供的每一项预测都被证明是错误的>>正确>>因为他们的预测不足>>所以现在我们总是处于混乱模式。嗯。 >>所以我们现在已经处于争夺模式，你知道几年了>>无论我们给出的预测是什么，总是>>比去年显着增加，但还不够。
**English / Original**
>> Now what's what's going on of course is that every one of their forecasts that they provide us turns out to have been wrong >> right >> because they under forecasted >> and so now we're always in a scramble mode. Mhm. >> And so we've been in the scramble mode now for you know a couple of years >> and it's whatever forecast we've been given has been always >> significant increase from last year but not not enough.
## 00:24:57
**中文**
>> Satya 去年似乎有所回落。你知道，似乎有些人称他为房间里的成年人，压制了其中一些期望。几周前，他说，嘿，我今年也建造了2 吉瓦算力基础设施，我们将来会加速。您是否看到一些传统的超大规模企业的发展速度可能比 CoreWeave 或 Elon X 慢一点，或者可能比 Stargate 慢一点？你都看到了吗？在我看来，他们现在都更加倾向于，而且由于第二个指数，他们也都>>。
**English / Original**
>> Satcha last year seemed to be pulling back a little bit. You know seemed to be you know some people called him the adult in the room tamping down kind of some of these these expectations. A few weeks ago he said hey I've also built two gigs this year and we're going to accelerate in the future. Do you see some of the traditional hyperscalers that may have been moving a little slower than let's call it a coreweave or or or Elon X or maybe a little slower than Stargate? Do you see them all? It it sounds like to me they're all leaning in more now and they're all also >> because of the second exponential.
## 00:25:30
**中文**
>> 好的。 >> 我们已经经历了一个指数级增长，即人工智能的采用率，人工智能的参与度呈指数级增长。是的。第二个起作用的指数是推理。 >> 是的。 >> 这是我们一年前的谈话。 >> 一年前。 >> 是的。我们说，“嘿，听着。当你从一个镜头中获得人工智能的那一刻，>>记住一个答案，然后是对的。
**English / Original**
>> Okay. >> We've already had one exponential we were experiencing which was the adoption rate of AI, the engagement of AI was growing exponentially. Yes. The second exponential that kicked in was reasoning. >> Yeah. >> That was the conversation we had one year ago. >> One year ago. >> Yeah. We said, "Hey, listen. The moment you take AI from one shot, >> memorizing an answer and Right.
## 00:25:54
**中文**
记忆和概括，这基本上是预训练。” >> 是的。 >> 记住一个答案，你知道 8* 8 是什么吗？只要记住它就可以了。好吧。记住一个答案并概括，这就是一次性人工智能。一年前，推理出现了 >> 当然 >> 研究出现了，工具使用出现了，现在你是一个会思考的人工智能 >> 10 亿 X。
**English / Original**
Memorizing and generalizing, that's basically pre-training." >> Yeah. >> So memorizing an answer, you know what's 8* 8? Just memorize it. Okay. And so memorizing an answer and generalizing, that was one shot AI. Now a year ago, reasoning came about >> for sure >> research came about, tool use came about, and now you're a thinking AI >> 1 billion X.
## 00:26:16
**中文**
>> 它将使用更多的计算。 >> 某些超大规模客户具有内部工作负载，他们必须无论如何从通用计算迁移到加速计算。所以他们通过这个周期进行构建。我认为也许一些超大规模企业有不同的工作负载，所以他们不太确定他们能多快消化它，但每个人现在都得出结论，他们的建设严重不足。
**English / Original**
>> It's going to use a lot more compute. >> Certain hypers scale customers to your point had internal workloads that they had to migrate anyways from um from general purpose computing to accelerated computing. So they built through the cycle. I think maybe some hyperscalers had different workloads so they weren't quite sure how quickly they could digest it but everyone >> has now concluded that they dramatically underbuilt.
## 00:26:42
**中文**
>> 我最喜欢的应用程序之一就是老式的数据处理>> 结构化数据和非结构化数据。 >> 只是很好的老式数据处理。 >> 很快我们将宣布一项加速数据处理的重大举措。 M>>数据处理代表了当今世界绝大多数CPU。
**English / Original**
>> One of the applications that my favorite is just good oldfashioned data processing >> structured data and unstructured data. >> Just good oldfashioned data processing. >> And very soon we're going to announce a very big initiative of accelerated data processing. M >> data processing represents the vast majority of the world's CPUs today.
## 00:27:02
**中文**
>> 它仍然完全在 CPU 上运行。 >> 您知道，如果您查看数据块，您会发现主要是 CPU。你会选择雪花，主要是 CPU。呃 Oracle 的 SQL 处理，主要是 CPU。每个人都在使用 CPU 来处理 SQL 结构化数据。 >> 未来，这一切都将转向人工智能数据。 >> 这是一个巨大的市场>> 我们将要进入这个市场。但是你需要你需要NVIDIA所做的一切都需要加速层并且需要你知道>>特定领域的正确数据处理是我们必须去构建的食谱，但那即将到来>>所以一个阻力我你知道我昨天打开CNBC，他们就像哦，过剩泡沫当我打开彭博社时，这是关于roundtpping和
**English / Original**
>> It still completely runs on CPUs. >> You know, if you go to data bricks, it's mostly CPUs. You go to snowflakes, mostly CPUs. Uh SQL processing at Oracle, mostly CPUs. Everybody's using CPUs to do SQL structured data. >> In the future, that's all going to move to AI data. >> That is one gigantic massive market >> that we're going to move to. But you need you need a you need everything that Nvidia does requires acceleration layers and requires you know >> domain specific right data processing lies recipes we got to go build that but that's coming >> so one of the push backs I you know I turned on CNBC yesterday they were like oh glut bubble when I turned on Bloomberg it was about roundtpping and
## 00:27:44
**中文**
循环收入好吧，所以为了你在家里认识的人的利益，这些安排是指公司进行误导性交易行为，人为地夸大收入，而没有任何潜在的经济实质。换句话说，增长是由金融工程支撑的，而不是由客户需求支撑的。当然，每个人都会参考的典型案例是 25 年前上一次泡沫时期的思科和 Nortel。因此，当你们或微软或亚马逊投资同时也是你们大客户的公司时，在这种情况下，你们投资OpenAI，而OpenAI正在购买数百亿的芯片，请提醒我们并提醒其他人，例如
**English / Original**
circular revenues okay and so for the benefit of people you know at home know these arrangements are when companies enter into a misleading transaction ction that artificially inflates revenue without any underlying economic substance. So in other words, growth propped up by financial engineering, not by customer demand. And the canonical case everybody's referencing of course is Cisco and Nortell from the last bubble 25 years ago. So when you guys or Microsoft or Amazon are investing in companies that are also your big customers, in this case you guys investing in Open AI while Open AI is buying tens of billions of chips, just remind us and remind everybody else like
## 00:28:27
**中文**
彭博社的分析师们在对循环收入或循环交易过度关注时犯了什么错误？ >> 10 吉瓦相当于 4000 亿美元，对吧？类似的事情。而且这 4000 亿美元的资金将主要来自他们的承购，>>对吗？他们的收入>>呈指数级增长。
**English / Original**
what is it what are the analysts on Bloomberg and otherwise getting wrong when they're hyperventilating about circular revenues or about roundtpping? >> 10 gigawatts is like $400 billion, right? Something like that. and and that $400 billion dollars will have to be largely funded by their offtake, >> right? Their revenue >> which is growing exponentially.
## 00:28:50
**中文**
它必须由他们的资本、他们通过股权筹集的资金以及他们可以筹集的任何债务来资助。 >> 那是三辆车。他们可以筹集的股本和可以筹集的债务肯定与他们可以维持的收入的信心有关。因此，聪明的投资者和聪明的贷方会考虑所有这些因素。
**English / Original**
It has to be funded by their capital, the money they've raised through equity and whatever debt they can raise. >> Those are the three vehicles. And the equity that they could raise and the debt that they could raise has something to do with the confidence of the revenues that they could sustain >> for sure. And so smart investors and smart lenders will consider all of these factors.
## 00:29:11
**中文**
>> 从根本上来说，这就是他们要做的。 >> 那是他们的公司。这不关我的事。当然，我们必须与他们保持密切联系，以确保我们的努力支持他们的持续增长。 >> 可以吗？所以，嗯，这是收入方面，与投资方面无关。它的投资方面与任何事物无关。这是投资他们的机会。正如我们之前提到的，这可能会成为下一个价值数万亿美元的超大规模公司。谁不想成为其中的投资者呢？你知道，我唯一的遗憾是他们很早就邀请我们投资。
**English / Original**
>> Fundamentally, that's what they're going to do. >> That's their company. It's not my business. And of course, we have to stay very close to them to make sure that we build in support of their continued growth. >> Okay? And so, um, there's the revenue side of it and has nothing to do with the investment side of it. The investment side of it is not tied to anything. It's an opportunity to invest in them. And as we were mentioning earlier, this is likely going to be the next multi- trillion dollar hypers scale company. And who doesn't want to be an investor in that? You know, my only regret is that that they invited us to invest early on.
## 00:29:46
**中文**
>>我记得那些对话>>我们太穷了，你知道，我们太穷了，我们投资不够，你知道，我应该把我所有的钱都给他们。现实是，如果你们不做好自己的工作并跟上，如果 Ver Rubin 没有变成一个好的芯片，他们可以去获取其他芯片并将它们放入这些数据中心，>>对吗？他们没有义务必须使用你的筹码，就像你说的，你将其视为机会主义的股权投资。我要说的另一件事>>我们已经进行了一些重大投资。我必须把它放在那里，你知道，我们投资了 XAI，我们投资了 Corewave。
**English / Original**
>> I remember those conversations >> and we were so poor, you know, that we were so poor, we didn't invest enough, you know, and I should have given them all my money. And the reality is if you guys don't do your jobs and keep up with, you know, if if Ver Rubin doesn't turn into a good chip, they can go get other chips and put them in these data centers, >> right? There's no obligation that they have to use your chips and and like you said, you're you're looking at this as an opportunistic equity investment. The other thing I would say >> and we've made some great investments. I got to put it out there, you know, we invested in XAI, we invested in Corewave.
## 00:30:18
**中文**
>> 难以置信。是的。 >> 是的。那有多聪明？ >> 是的。当我回到这一点时，在我看来另一件基本的事情是，你知道，你把它放在那里。你说这就是我们正在做的事情。这里有潜在的经济实质，对吗？这并不是说您只是以某种方式在两家公司之间来回发送收入。我们让人们每个月为 Chat GPT 汇款，每月有 10 亿个半月的用户使用该产品。你刚才说，世界上每个企业要么这样做，要么就死掉。每个主权国家都将其视为与核电一样对其国家安全和经济安全至关重要。什么
**English / Original**
>> Incredible. Yeah. >> Yeah. How smart was that? >> Yeah. As I go back to this, the other fundamental thing it seems to me is, you know, you're putting it out there. You're saying this is what we're doing. And the underlying economic substance here, right? It's not that you're just some somehow sending revenues back and forth between the two companies. We got people sending money every month for Chat GPT, a billion and a half monthly users using the product. You just said every enterprise in the world is either going to do this or they will die. Every sovereign views this as existential to their national security and economic security as as nuclear power. What
## 00:30:59
**中文**
个人、公司或国家都说情报对于我们来说基本上是可选的。我的意思是这对他们来说至关重要。 >> 嗯，智能自动化 >> 我把需求问题打败了。那么，让我们稍微讨论一下系统设计，我马上就请克拉克来讨论这个问题。但在 2024 年，您与 Hopper 切换到了年度发布周期，>> 对了。
**English / Original**
person, company or nation says intelligence is bas basically optional for yeah for us. I mean it's fundamental to them. >> Well the automation of intelligence >> I beat the demand question to death. So let's jump in a little bit to system design and I'm I'm I'm going to turn to Clark here in a sec second on that. But in 2024, you switched to your annual release cycle, >> right, with Hopper.
## 00:31:23
**中文**
>> 然后您进行了大规模升级，您知道，这需要 Grace Blackwell 对数据中心进行重大检修。 2025 年和 26 年后半段，我们将得到维拉·鲁宾 (Vera Rubin)。 27 号我们将得到 Ultra 和 28 号 Fineman。年度发布周期进展如何？好的。进入年度发布周期的主要目标是什么？ NVIDIA 内部的 AI 是否允许您执行年度发布周期？
**English / Original**
>> You then had a massive upgrade which required, you know, significant data center overhaul with Grace Blackwell. In 2025, and in the back half of 26, we're going to get Vera Rubin. 27 we'll get Ultra and 28 Fineman. How is the annual release cycle going? Okay. What were the main goals of going to an annual release cycle? And did AI inside Nvidia allow you to execute the annual release cycle?
## 00:31:51
**中文**
>> 是的，答案是肯定的。关于最后一个问题，如果没有它，NVIDIA的速度、我们的步伐、我们的规模将会受到限制。 >> 因此，如今如果没有人工智能，嗯，我们根本不可能构建出我们构建的东西。现在，嗯，我们为什么要这样做？有件事让我记得埃迪在他的财报电话会议或会议上说过。呃萨蒂亚说过了，萨姆也说过了。Token生成率呈指数级上升。
**English / Original**
>> Yeah, the answer is yes. On the back on the last question, without it, um, Nvidia's velocity, our pace, our scale would be limited. >> And so without without AI these days, um, it's just simply not possible to build what we built. Now, um, why do we do it? There's something that remember uh uh Eddie said it uh at his earnings call um or his conference. Uh Satia has said it, Sam has said it. The token generation rate is going up exponentially.
## 00:32:22
**中文**
>> 是的。 >> 客户使用量呈指数级增长。 >> 嗯，我认为他们每周的活跃用户数为 8 亿或类似的数字。 >> 是的。我的意思是距离聊天 GPT 还不到两年，对吧？ >> 每个用户都在生成更多的Token，因为他们正在使用推理时间推理。 >> 没错。确切地。因此，第一件事是因为Token生成率正在以惊人的两倍指数增长。是的。
**English / Original**
>> Yeah. >> And the customer use is going up exponentially. >> Um I think they're at 800 million weekly active users or something like that. >> Yes. I mean that's less than two years from chat GPT, right? >> And each of those users is generating massively more tokens because they're using inference time reasoning. >> That's right. Exactly. And so so the first thing is because the token generation rate is going up so incredibly two exponentials. Yeah.
## 00:32:51
**中文**
>> 除此之外，>>我们必须取消，除非我们以令人难以置信的速度提高性能，>>Token生成的成本将继续增长，因为摩尔定律已经失效，对吧？因为现在晶体管每年的成本基本上是一样的。而且功率也基本相同。在这两个基本法则之间，除非我们想出新技术来降低成本，即使增长略有差异，你也会给某人几个百分点的折扣。这将如何弥补两个指数？
**English / Original**
>> On top of each other, >> we have to un unless we increase the performance at incredible rates, >> the cost of token generation will keep growing because Mo's law is dead, right? Because transistors basically cost the same every single year now. And power is largely the same. And between those two fundamental laws, unless we come up with new technologies to drive the cost down, even if there's a slight difference in growth, you give somebody a discount of a few percent. How's that going to make up for two exponentials?
## 00:33:22
**中文**
因此，我们必须每年以跟上指数的速度提高我们的绩效。 >> 是的。因此，在嗯嗯的情况下，从嗯我猜嗯嗯开普勒到是的一直到开普勒一直到嗯嗯霍珀可能是 100,000 倍 >> 这就是 NVIDIA 人工智能之旅的开始。 10 年内增长 100,000 倍。好的。
**English / Original**
And so we have to increase our per performance annually at a pace that keeps up with that exponential. >> Yeah. So in the case of in the case of um uh going from uh I guess uh uh Kepler to yeah all the way to Kepler all the way to um uh Hopper was probably 100,000x >> that was the beginning of the AI journey for Nvidia. 100,000x in 10 years. Okay.
## 00:33:49
**中文**
在 Hopper 和 Blackwell 之间，我们因为 MVLink 72 而增加了，>> 对吧？ >> 30x >> 一年后，我们将再次与鲁本一起获得另一个 X 因素，然后我们将与 Fineman 一起获得另一个 X 因素。我们这样做的方式是因为晶体管并没有真正帮助我们太多，对吧？摩尔定律主要是密度在增加但性能却没有增加。因此，如果是这样的话，我们必须要做的挑战之一就是我们必须在系统级别分解整个问题，并同时更改每个芯片、所有软件堆栈和所有系统。极致的协同设计。以前没有人达到过这个水平，>> 对吧？
**English / Original**
Between Hopper and Blackwell, we increased because of MVLink 72, >> right? >> 30x >> in one year and then we'll get another X factor again with Reuben and then we'll get another X factor with Fineman. And the way we we do that is because the transistors aren't really helping us very much, right? Moors law is largely the density is growing up but going up but the performance is not. And so if that's the case, one of the challenges that we have to do is we have to break the entire problem down at the system level and change every chip at the same time and all the software stack and all the systems all at the same time. The ultimate extreme code design. Nobody's ever codees at this level before, >> right?
## 00:34:31
**中文**
>> 我们更换 CPU，彻底改变 CPU、GPU、网络芯片、MVLink 纵向扩展、Spectrum X 横向扩展。有人说我听到有人说，“哦，是的，这只是以太网。”是的。正确的。好的。因此，Spectrum X 以太网不仅仅是以太网。人们开始发现，天哪，X 因素非常令人难以置信，>> 对吧？
**English / Original**
>> We change the CPU, revolutionize the CPU, a GPU, the networking chip, the MVLink scale up, the Spectrum X scale out. Somebody said I heard somebody said, "Oh yeah, it's just Ethernet." Yeah. Right. Okay. So, Spectrum X Ethernet is not just Ethernet. And people are starting to discover, oh my god, the X factors is pretty incredible, >> right?
## 00:34:53
**中文**
>>要知道，NVIDIA的以太网业务，光是以太网业务就是全球增长最快的以太网业务。 >> 是的。 >> 所以，所以横向扩展，当然现在我们必须呃构建更大的系统。因此，我们可以跨多个连接在一起的人工智能工厂进行扩展。然后我们每年都会这样做。因此，我们现在从技术中获得了指数级的增长。这使得我们的客户能够降低Token的成本。通过预训练、后训练和思考，不断让这些Token变得越来越聪明。因此，当人工智能变得更聪明时，它们就会被更多地使用。当它们被更多地使用时，它们将会呈指数级增长。
**English / Original**
>> You know, Nvidia's Ethernet business, the just Ethernet business is the fastest growing Ethernet business in the world. >> Yeah. >> And so, so scale out and of course now we have to uh build even larger systems. So, we scale across >> um multiple AI factories connected together. And then we do this at an annual pace. And so we now have an exponential of exponentials going ourselves from technology. And that allows our customers to drive the cost of tokens down. Keep making those tokens smarter and smarter with pre-training and post-training and thinking. And as a result, when the AI gets smarter, they get more used. When they get more used, they're going to grow exponentially.
## 00:35:35
**中文**
>> 对于可能不太熟悉的人。 >> 是的。什么是极限协同设计？ >> 极限协同设计意味着模型、算法、系统、芯片同时优化。 >> 你必须跳出框框进行创新，>> 对吗？ >> 因为摩尔定律说你必须不断让 CPU 变得越来越快。一切都变得更快了。你在一个盒子里进行创新。
**English / Original**
>> For people who may not be as familiar. >> Yeah. What is extreme code design? >> Extreme code design means that you have to optimize the model, algorithm, system, and chip at the same time. >> You have to innovate outside the box, >> right? >> Because Moore's law said you just have to keep making the CPU faster and faster. Everything got faster. You were innovating within a box.
## 00:35:59
**中文**
>> 只是让该芯片更快。是的。好吧，如果该芯片不能更快地运行，那么你要做什么？跳出框框进行创新。因此，NVIDIA确实改变了一些事情，因为我们做了两件事。我们发明了 CUDA，发明了 GPU，>> 我们还发明了大规模协同设计的理念。 >> 这就是我们所处的所有这些行业的原因。我们正在创建所有这些库和协同设计。第一，全栈极限甚至超越了软件和 GPU。现在是数据中心级别的交换机和网络，您知道交换机和网络中的所有软件以及扩展和扩展的NIC
**English / Original**
>> Just make that chip faster. Yeah. Well, if that chip doesn't go any faster, then what are you going to do? Innovate outside the box. And so Nvidia really changed things because we did two things. We invented CUDA, invented GPUs, >> and we invented the idea of code design at a very large scale. >> That's why there's all these industries we're in. We're creating all these libraries and code design. Number one, full stack extreme is even beyond software and GPUs. It's now at the data center level switches and networking and you know all of that all of that software in the switches and the networking and the nicks the scale up the scale out
## 00:36:40
**中文**
>> 对所有这些进行优化，因为 Blackwell 到Hopper的速度是 30 倍 >> 摩尔定律不可能实现这一目标 >> 对 >> 所以这是极端的 >> 这来自极端的协同设计 >> 这是因为 NVIDIA 拥有这就是为什么我们进入网络和交换领域，并进行扩展、横向扩展和横向扩展，构建 CPU、构建 GPU 和构建NIC。你知道，这就是为什么NVIDIA拥有如此丰富的软件和人员，我们在世界上检查的开源软件比除了另一家公司之外的任何一家公司都多。我认为是 AI2 或类似的东西。
**English / Original**
>> optimizing across all of that as a result of that blackwell to hopper is 30x >> no moors law could possibly achieve that >> right >> and so that's extreme >> and that comes from the extreme code design >> that's because Nvidia has that's why we got into networking and switching and scale up and scale out and scale across and building CPUs and building GPUs and building nicks. You know that that's the reason why Nvidia is so rich in software and people we we check in more open-source software in the world than just about anybody except one other company. I think it's AI2 or something like that.
## 00:37:17
**中文**
>> 因此，我们拥有如此丰富的软件，而这只是人工智能领域的软件。不要忘记计算机图形学、数字生物学和自动驾驶汽车，您知道我们作为一家公司生产的软件数量令人难以置信，这些软件使我们能够进行深入而极端的协同设计。 >> 我从你的一位竞争对手那里听说，你知道他正在这样做，因为这有助于降低Token生成的成本，但同时你的年度发布周期使你的竞争对手几乎不可能跟上。嗯，供应链被锁定得更多，因为你要为供应链提供三年的可见性。因此，现在供应链对他们的目标充满信心。那么你认为
**English / Original**
>> And so so we have such enormous richness of software and that's just in AI. Don't forget computer graphics and digital biology and autonomous vehicles and you know the amount of software we produce as a company is incredible that allows us to do deep and extreme code designs. >> I heard from one of your competitors you know yes he's doing this because it helps drive down the cost of token generation but at the same time your annual release cycle makes it almost impossible for your competitors to keep up. um the supply chain gets locked up more because you're giving three-year visibility to your supply chain. So now the supply chain has confidence as to what they can build to. So do you think
## 00:37:58
**中文**
关于这个？等一下，等一下，再问问题。想想这个。 >> 为了让我们每年投入数千亿美元 >> 进行人工智能基础设施建设。 >> 是的。 >> 想想一年前我们必须启动多少产能。 >> 是的。我们正在谈论建造数千亿美元的 >> 晶圆开工和 DRAM 购买，你们在谈论 >> 是的。
**English / Original**
about this? Wait wait wait before you before you ask the question. Think about this. >> In order for us to do several hundred billion dollars a year >> of AI infrastructure buildout. >> Yes. >> Think about how much capacity we had to go start a year ago. >> Yes. We're talking about building hundreds of billions of dollars of >> wafer starts and DRAM buys and are you you guys talking >> Yeah.
## 00:38:24
**中文**
>> 现在的规模几乎没有任何公司能够跟上。 >> 那么您是否认为您今天的竞争护城河比三年前更大？ >> 是的。你知道，首先，竞争比以往任何时候都更加激烈，但也比以往任何时候都更加困难。嗯。 >> 我之所以这么说，是因为晶圆成本越来越高 >> 这意味着，除非你进行极端规模的协同设计，否则你将无法实现 X 因子增长 >> 第一个数字，所以你知道，除非你每年生产六七八个芯片 >> 对 >> 这是令人惊奇的事情，它不是关于构建 ASIC，而是关于构建人工智能工厂
**English / Original**
>> This is now at a scale that hardly any company can keep up with. >> So would you say your competitive moat is greater today than it was three years ago? >> Yeah. You know, first of all, there's just more competition than ever before, but it's harder than ever before. Mhm. >> And the reason why I say that is because um wafer cost is getting wafer costs are getting higher >> which means that unless you do code design at an extreme scale you're just not going to be able to deliver the X factor growth >> number one number and so you you know unless you unless you're working on six seven eight chips a year >> right >> that's amazing thing it's not about building an ASIC it's about building an AI factory
## 00:39:07
**中文**
>>系统>>这个系统有很多芯片，它们都是共同设计的>>并且它们一起提供了你知道我们几乎经常得到的10倍因素>>呃。好的。所以第一，协同设计是极端的。第二件事是规模极端。 >> 当您的客户部署一吉瓦时，即 400,000 个 500,000 个 GPU，正确的 >> 让 500,000 个 GPU 协同工作是一个奇迹。
**English / Original**
>> system >> and this system that has a lot of chips in and they're all co-designed >> and together they deliver that you know that 10x factor that we get >> uh almost regularly. Okay. So number one the code design is extreme. The second thing is that the scale is extreme. >> When your customers deploy a gigawatt that's a you know 400,000 500,000 GPUs right >> getting 500,000 GPUs to work together is a miracle.
## 00:39:37
**中文**
>> 我的意思是这只是一个奇迹。因此，您的客户冒着巨大的风险让您购买所有这些。您必须问自己，哪个客户会在架构上放置价值 500 亿美元的 PO >>，>> 对吗？ >> 在一个未经验证的架构上，一个新的架构，>> 对吗？一个新的架构。 >> 是的。你只需取出一个全新的芯片即可。你和你一样兴奋，你知道，每个人都为你感到兴奋>>，而你只是展示了第一块芯片，>>对吗？谁会给你 500 亿美元的 PO，对吗？
**English / Original**
>> I mean it's just a miracle. And so they your customers are taking enormous risk on you to go buy all of this. You got to ask yourself what customer would place a $50 billion PO >> on an architecture, >> right? >> On an unproven architecture, a new one, >> right? A new architecture. >> Yeah. You just take out a whole new chip. You're as excited as you are about it, you know, and everybody's excited for you >> and and you just show the first silicon, >> right? Who's going to give you $50 billion PO, right?
## 00:40:10
**中文**
>> 为什么要为刚刚流片的芯片启动价值 500 亿美元的晶圆？ >> 但对于 NVIDIA 来说，我们可以做到这一点，因为我们的架构已经经过验证。所以说，我们客户的规模是如此令人难以置信。现在我们供应链的规模令人难以置信，>>对吧？ >> 谁会开始所有这些东西，为一家公司预先构建所有这些东西，除非他们知道 NVIDIA 可以交付？是不是这样？他们相信我们可以为世界各地的所有客户提供服务。他们愿意一次启动数千亿美元。
**English / Original**
>> And why would you start $50 billion worth of wafers for a chip that just taped out? >> But for Nvidia, we could do that because our architecture is so proven. So number the the scale of our customer is so incredible. Now the scale of our supply chain is incredible, >> right? >> Who's going to start all of that stuff, pre-build all of that stuff for a company unless they know that Nvidia can deliver through? Isn't that right? and they believe that we can we can deliver through to all of the customers around the world. They're willing to start several hundred billion dollars at a time.
## 00:40:43
**中文**
>> 这仅是规模就令人难以置信。 >> 就这一点而言，你知道，世界上最大的关键辩论和争议之一是 GPU 与 A6 的问题，>> 谷歌的 TPU、亚马逊的 Tranium，而且似乎从 ARM 到 OpenAI 到 Enthropic 的每个人都在传闻中正在构建一个。嗯。 >> 去年您说过，您知道，我们正在构建系统，而不是芯片，而您正在通过该堆栈的每个部分来提高性能。您还表示，其中许多项目可能永远无法达到生产规模。
**English / Original**
>> This is just the scale is incredible. >> To that point, you know, one of the biggest key debates and controversies in the world is this question of GPUs versus A6, >> Google's TPUs, Amazon's Tranium, and it seems like everyone from ARM to OpenAI to Enthropic are, you know, rumored to be building one. Mhm. >> Last year you said, you know, we're building systems, not chips, and you're driving performance through every single part of that stack. You also said that many of these projects may never get to production scale.
## 00:41:17
**中文**
>> 但考虑到 >> 大多数， >> 大多数， >> 考虑到 Google 的 TPU 看似成功， >> 是的， >> 你知道，你如何看待当今不断发展的格局？ >> 是的。 >> 并且>> 首先，>> 嗯。谷歌的优势在于先见之明。 >> 请记住，他们在一切开始之前就启动了 TPU1。
**English / Original**
>> But given like the >> most of them, >> most of them, >> given the seeming success of Google's TPUs, >> yeah, >> you know, how are you thinking about this evolving landscape today? >> Yeah. >> And >> first of all, >> Mhm. the the advantage that that Google had is foresight. >> Remember, they started TPU1 before everything started.
## 00:41:39
**中文**
>> 你知道，这与初创公司没有什么不同。你应该建立一家初创公司。你应该在市场增长之前创建一家初创公司。 >> 嗯。 >> 当市场规模达到一万亿美元时，你不应该作为一家初创公司出现。嗯。 >> 你知道这个谬论，所有风险投资家都知道这个谬论：一个大市场，如果你能占据几个百分点的市场份额，你就可以成为一家大公司。
**English / Original**
>> You know, this is no different than a startup. You're supposed to build a startup. You're supposed to create a startup before the market grows. >> Mhm. >> You're not supposed to come up as a startup when the market's a trillion dollars large. Mhm. >> You know the this fallacy and and all VCs know this this fallacy that a large market if you could just take a few percent market share you could be a giant company.
## 00:42:04
**中文**
>> 这实际上是根本错误的。 >> 是的。 >> 你应该获得一家小公司、一个小行业 100% 的股份，这就是 NVIDIA 所做的，对吧？这就是 TPU 所做的。只有我们两个人。 >> 但你最好希望这个行业变得真正壮大。你正在创造一个产业。 >> 没错。正确的。我的意思是 NVIDIA 的故事，你知道哪个 >> 对于正在构建 A6 的人来说，这是一个挑战，现在它看起来像一个多汁的市场 >> 但请记住，这个多汁的市场已经从一种称为 GPU 的芯片发展到我刚刚描述的人工智能工厂，你们刚刚看到我刚刚宣布了一款名为 CPX 的芯片，用于上下文处理和扩散视频生成
**English / Original**
>> That's actually fundamentally wrong. >> Yeah. >> You're supposed to take 100% of a tiny company, a tiny industry, which is what Nvidia did did, right? Which is what TPUs did. There were only the two of us. >> But you better hope that that industry gets really big. You're creating an industry. >> That's right. Right. and and I mean the Nvidia story you know which >> and so that's the challenge for the for people who are building A6 now it looks like a juicy market >> but remember this juicy market has evolved from a chip called a GPU to I just described an AI factory and you guys just saw I just announced a chip called CPX for context processing and diffusion video generation a very
## 00:42:44
**中文**
专门的工作负载，但数据中心内的重要工作负载，我只是将其作为人工智能数据处理处理器的前奏，因为你猜怎么着？你需要长期记忆。你需要短期记忆。 KV缓存处理非常激烈。 >> AI记忆是一件大事。 >> 你知道，你有点喜欢你的人工智能有良好的记忆力，并且只处理系统周围的所有 KV 缓存。
**English / Original**
specialized workload but an important workload inside a data center I just prelude it to maybe AI data processing processors because guess what? You need long-term memory. You need short-term memory. The KV cache processing is really intense. >> AI memory is a big deal. >> You know, you kind of like your AI to have good memory and just dealing with all the KV caching around the system.
## 00:43:08
**中文**
真的很复杂的事情。也许它想要一个专门的处理器。 >> 也许还有其他事情，对吗？所以你看，NVIDIA 是我们的观点，现在我们的观点不是 GPU。我们的观点是着眼于整个人工智能基础设施，以及这些令人难以置信的公司如何通过它来完成他们所有的工作负载，这是多样化和变化的。
**English / Original**
Really complicated stuff. Maybe it wants to have a specialized processor. >> Maybe there's other things, right? So you you see that Nvidia's our our our viewpoint is now not GPU. Our viewpoint is looking at the entire AI infrastructure and what does it take for these incredible companies to get all of their workload through it which is diverse and changing.
## 00:43:32
**中文**
>> 查看变压器。变压器架构正在发生令人难以置信的变化。如果不是因为 CUDA 易于操作和迭代，他们如何尝试所有大量的实验来决定使用哪一个 Transformer 版本、使用什么样的注意力算法？你如何分解？ CUDA 可以帮助您完成这一切，因为它非常可编程。因此，现在思考我们我们的业务的方式是，当所有这些 ASIC 公司或 ASIC 项目在三、四年、五年前开始时，我必须告诉你，这个行业是超级可爱和简单的。
**English / Original**
>> Look at the transformer. The transformer architecture is changing incredibly. If not for the fact that CUDA is easy to operate on and iterate on, how do they try all of their vast number of experiments to decide which one of the transformer versions, what kind of attention algorithm to use? How do you disagregate? CUDA helps you do all that because it's so programmable. And so the way to think about our our our business now is you look at when when all of these ASIC companies or ASIC projects start 3, four, five years ago, I got to tell you that industry was super adorable and simple.
## 00:44:10
**中文**
>> 涉及到 GPU，>> 对吧？ >> 但现在它变得庞大而复杂 >> 再过两年，它将变得非常庞大。规模将会如此之大。因此，我认为，作为一名网络玩家，进入>>一个非常大的市场的战斗是非常困难的，正如你们所知的>>即使对于那些可能在 AS6 上取得成功的客户来说也是如此。
**English / Original**
>> There was a GPU involved, >> right? >> But now it's giant and complex >> and in another two years it's going to be completely massive. The scale is going to be so large. And so I think that the battle the the battle of getting into >> a very large market as a nent player is just hard you know as you guys know >> even for the customers who perhaps are successful with AS6.
## 00:44:35
**中文**
>> 是的。 >> 他们的计算机群中是否存在最佳平衡，就像你知道的那样，我认为投资者是非常二元的生物。他们只是想要一个黑白分明的答案。但即使你让 ASIC 工作，难道不存在最佳平衡吗，因为你认为我购买了 NVIDIA 平台，CPX 将会出来用于预填充，你知道，用于视频生成，>>也许是解码，你知道，你知道，平台视频。
**English / Original**
>> Yeah. >> Isn't there an optimal balance in their compute fleet like it's you know I think investors are very much binary creatures. They just want a yes or no black and white answer. But even even if you get the ASIC to work, isn't there an optimal balance because you think I'm buying the Nvidia platform, CPX is going to come out for prefill for, you know, for video generation, >> maybe a decode, you know, you know, a platform video.
## 00:45:02
**中文**
>> 正是如此。 >> 是的。 >> 因此，将会有许多不同的 >> 嗯芯片或部件添加到 NVIDIA 生态系统中，>> 加速计算舰队，>> 对吗？你知道，新的工作负载正在诞生。 >> 没错。 >> 而且，你知道，今天试图流片新芯片的人们并没有真正预见到一年后会发生什么。他们只是想让芯片发挥作用。
**English / Original**
>> Exactly. >> Yeah. >> So there will be like many different >> um chips or parts to add to the Nvidia ecosystem, >> accelerated compute fleet, >> right? as new workloads are, you know, are are born. >> That's right. >> And, you know, people trying to tape out new chips today are not really anticipating what's happening a year from now. They're just trying to get a chip to work.
## 00:45:24
**中文**
>> 没错。 >> 换句话说，Google 是 GPU 的大客户。 >> Google 是 GPU 的大客户。嗯，如果你看一下，谷歌是一个非常特殊的例子。我的意思是，我们必须，你知道，在真正值得尊重的地方表现出尊重。我的意思是，>> 呃，TPU 在 TPU7 上。 >> 是的。 >> 对。所以嗯，嗯，这对他们来说也是一个挑战，对吧？因此，他们所做的工作非常艰苦。所以我认为首先让我做一个，嗯，记住芯片分为三类。
**English / Original**
>> That's right. >> Set another way, Google's a big GPU customer. >> Google's a big GPU customer. Um, if you look at and Google is a very special case. I mean, we just have to, you know, show respect where respect is really deserved. I mean, >> uh, TPU is on TPU7. >> Yes. >> Right. And so um and and uh and it's a challenge for them as well, right? And so so the work that they do is incredibly hard. So so I think the first thing to to let let me do a um you know remember there there are three categories of chips.
## 00:46:00
**中文**
有建筑类别的芯片。 >> X86 CPU、ARM CPU、NVIDIA GPU。架构 它有一个上面的生态系统，并且该架构允许呃拥有丰富的IP和丰富的生态系统非常复杂的技术。它是由像我们这样的业主建造的。好的。 >> 有 AS6。我曾在 LSI Logic 公司工作，他们发明了 A6 的想法。
**English / Original**
There's the category chips that are architectural. >> X86 CPUs, ARM CPUs, Nvidia GPUs. Architectural And it has an ecosystem above and and um uh the architecture uh allows uh has rich IP and rich ecosystem very complicated technology. It's built by the owners like us. Okay. >> There's AS6. I worked for the original company LSI Logic who invented the idea of A6.
## 00:46:35
**中文**
>> 如您所知，LSI Logic 已不再存在，>> 对吧？原因是 AS6 真的太棒了。当市场规模不是很大时，>> 嗯，很容易有人成为承包商来帮助您将所有这些东西包装在一起并代表您进行制造，他们向您收取 50 60 点的利润。但是，当 ASIC 市场变得越来越大时，就会出现一种新的做事方式，称为“coot”，>> 客户拥有的工具。谁会做这样的事？嗯，苹果公司的苹果公司的智能手机芯片数量如此之大，他们永远不会付给别人 50 60% 的毛利率
**English / Original**
>> As you know LSI Logic is not here anymore, >> right? And the reason for that is because AS6 is really fantastic. When the the market size is not very large, >> um it's easy to have somebody uh be a contractor to help you put the packaging of all that stuff together and do the manufacturing on your behalf and they charge you 50 60 points of margin. But when the market gets large for an ASIC, there's a new way of doing things called coot, >> customerowned tooling. And who would who would do something like that? Um Apple's as Apple Apple's smartphone chip the volume is so large they would never go pay somebody else 50 60% gross margin to
## 00:47:17
**中文**
成为 ASIC。他们制作客户自己的工具。 >> 那么，当 TPU 成为一项大业务时，它们会走向何方？客户自己的工具。 >> 这是毫无疑问的。所以，A6 也有一席之地。 >> 呃视频转码器永远不会太大。嗯，聪明的NIC永远不会太大。因此，当 ASIC 公司正在进行 10、12、15 个项目时，我对此并不感到惊讶，>> 你知道，因为可能有 5 个智能芯片和 4 个转码器，你知道，它们都是人工智能芯片吗？当然不是。你知道，如果有人要为特定的推荐系统构建一个嵌入式处理器，那就是 ASIC，
**English / Original**
be an ASIC. They do customer own tooling. >> And so um where will TPUs go when they when it becomes a large business? Customer own tooling. >> There's no question about it. And so a but there's a place for A6. >> Uh video transcoders will never be too large. Um, smart nicks will never be too large. And so when when there's 10, 12, 15 as projects going on at an ASIC company, I'm not surprised by that, >> you know, because there there probably five smart nicks and four transcoders and, you know, are they all AI chips? Of course not. You know, and and if somebody were to build an embedded embedding processor for a specific recommener system and that was an ASIC,
## 00:47:59
**中文**
你当然可以这样做。但是，作为一直在变化的人工智能的基本计算引擎，你会这样做吗？您的工作负载延迟较低。您可以在低工作负载下获得高吞吐量。您可以生成用于聊天的令牌。你有思考的工作量。您有 AI 视频生成工作负载。有没有一个你现在知道的>>你加速的主力骨干？
**English / Original**
of course you could do that. But would you do that as the fundamental compute engine for AI that's changing all the time? You've got low latency workload. You got high throughput lo workload. You have token generation for chat. You have thinking workload. You have AI video generation workload. Is there a you know now you're talking about >> the workhorse backbone of your accelerated?
## 00:48:22
**中文**
>> 这就是 NVIDIA 的全部意义所在。再次，把这件事简单化。这就像下国际象棋和跳棋，对吧？事实上，今天开始开发 AS6 的人们，无论是 Tranium 还是其他一些加速器等。他们正在构建一个芯片，该芯片是更大机器的组件。你已经建立了一个非常复杂的系统、平台、工厂，无论你想怎么称呼它，现在你正在开放一点，对吗？那么，您提到了 CPXGPU，对吗？也就是说，在我看来，在某些方面，您正在将工作负载分解到该特定域的最佳硬件部分。
**English / Original**
>> That's what Nvidia is all about. Again, dumb this down. It's like playing chess and checkers, right? The fact of the matter is the folks who are starting AS6 today whether it's Tranium or whether it's some of these other accelerators etc. they're building a chip that's a component of a much larger machine. you've built a very sophisticated system, platform, factory, whatever you want to call it, and now you're opening up a little bit, right? So, you mentioned CPXGPU, right? That is, it seems to me that it in some ways you're disagregating the workloads to the best slice of the hardware for that particular domain.
## 00:48:58
**中文**
>> 好吧，我们确实宣布了这个叫做 Dynamo 的东西，>> 对吗？分解的 Orch AI 工作负载编排，我们开源它，因为未来的人工智能工厂是分解的 >> 对 >> 你推出了 MV Fusion >> 甚至对你的竞争对手说 >> 包括你刚刚投资的英特尔 >> 是的 >> 你知道你参与我们正在建造的这个工厂的方式，因为没有其他人疯狂到试图建造整个工厂，但如果你有一个足够好的产品，足够引人注目，最终用户会说，“嘿，我们想要使用它代替 ARM GPU 或者我们想使用它代替您的推理加速器，
**English / Original**
>> Well, we did we announced this thing called Dynamo, >> right? disagregated orch AI workload orchestration and we open sourced it because the future AI factory is disagregated >> right >> and you launched MV Fusion >> that even said to your competitors >> including Intel which you just invested in >> that's right >> you know the way in which you participate in this factory that we're building because nobody else is crazy enough to try to build the entire factory but you can plug into that if you have a product that's good enough, compelling enough that the end user says, "Hey, we want to use this instead of an ARM GPU or we want to use this instead of your inference accelerator,
## 00:49:41
**中文**
等等，这是正确的吗？”
**English / Original**
etc. Is that correct?"
## 00:49:42
**中文**
>> 我们很高兴能与您联系。是的。 >> 告诉我们一点融合这样一个伟大的想法，我们很高兴与英特尔就此合作。这需要英特尔生态系统，你知道，世界上大多数企业仍然在英特尔上运行。它采用了英特尔生态系统、NVIDIA人工智能生态系统、加速计算，然后我们将它们融合在一起，>>对吧？
**English / Original**
>> We're delighted delighted to connect you in. Yeah. >> Tell us a little bit fusion such a great idea and we're so happy to partner with Intel on that. It takes takes the Intel ecosystem, you know, there most of the world's enterprise still runs on Intel. It takes the Intel ecosystem, takes the Nvidia AI ecosystem, accelerated computing, and we fused it together, >> right?
## 00:50:02
**中文**
>> 我们用 ARM 做到了这一点，>> 对吗？我们还将与其他几个人一起做这件事。呃，这为我们双方带来了机会。这对我们双方来说都是一场胜利。伟大伟大的胜利。我将成为他们的大客户，呃他们将为我们带来更大的市场机会。 >> 是的。与这个想法密切相关的是你提出的那种让一些人震惊的论点，你说我们的竞争对手制造 A6 他们实际上所有的芯片今天已经更便宜了，但他们实际上可以将它们定价为零，我们的目标是他们可以将它们定价为零，而你仍然会购买 NVIDIA 系统，因为操作系统的总成本
**English / Original**
>> And we did that with ARM, >> right? And there are several others we're going to be doing it with. And and uh that that opens up opportunities for both of us. It's a win for both of us. Great great win. I'll be a large customer of theirs and uh they're going to expose us to a a much much larger market opportunity. >> Yeah. that's deeply related to this idea is the argument you've made that kind of um c shock some people where you say our competitors building A6 they could literally all their chips are cheaper already today but they could literally price them at zero our objective is they could price them at zero and you would still buy an Nvidia system because the total cost of operating that system
## 00:50:43
**中文**
电力数据中心土地等即使免费提供给您，情报仍然比购买芯片更好>>因为土地电力和外壳已经是150亿美元，>>对吗？ >> 是的。 >> 因此，我们对此进行了一些数学分析。但请告诉我们你的数学，因为我认为对于那些不在这里花太多时间的人来说，它根本无法计算。考虑到你的芯片成本，你怎么可能将竞争对手的芯片定价为零，而这仍然是一个更好的选择？有两种思考方式。嗯，一个办法就是嗯，呃，我们从收入的角度来考虑。
**English / Original**
power data center land etc the intelligence out is still a better bet than buying a chip even if it's given to you for free >> because the land power and shell is already $15 billion, >> right? >> Yeah. >> So, we've taken a crack at kind of the math on that. But walk us through your math because I think for people who don't spend as much time here that it just doesn't compute. How could it possibly be that you were pricing your competitor's chips at zero given the expense of your chips and it still is a better bet? There's two ways to think about it. Um, one way is um, uh, let's just think about it from a perspective of revenues.
## 00:51:17
**中文**
>> 是的。 >> 好的。所以每个人的功率都是有限的，假设你能够获得另外两吉瓦的功率。 >> 好吧，您希望将两吉瓦的电力转化为收入。 >> 是的。 >> 所以你的性能或每瓦Token是其他人每瓦Token的两倍，因为你做了深入而极端的协同设计，>> 对吗？
**English / Original**
>> Yes. >> Okay. So everybody's power limited and let's say uh you were able to secure two more gigawatts of power. >> Well, that two gawatts of power you would like to have translate to revenues. >> Yes. >> So your performance or tokens per watt was twice as high as somebody else's token per watt because you did I did deep and extreme code design, >> right?
## 00:51:46
**中文**
而且我的每单位能源性能要高得多，>> 那么我的客户可以从他们的数据中心产生两倍的收入>>。 >> 谁不想要双倍的收入呢？如果有人给他们 15% 的折扣，>> 你知道，我们的毛利率（称为 75 点）与其他人的毛利率（称为 50 到 65 点）之间的差异还不足以弥补 Black Wall 和 Hopper 之间 30 倍的差异。让我们假设 Hopper Hopper 是一个令人惊叹的芯片，一个令人惊叹的系统。
**English / Original**
and my performance was much higher per unit energy, >> then my customer can produce twice as much revenues >> from their data center. >> And who doesn't want twice as much revenues? and and and if somebody gave them a 15% discount, >> you know, the difference between our gross margins, which is called the 75 points, and somebody else's gross margins, call it the 50 to 65 points, is not so much as to make up for the 30 times difference between Black Wall and Hopper. Let's pretend Hopper Hopper is an amazing chip, an amazing system.
## 00:52:22
**中文**
让我们假设别人的 ASIC 是 Hopper。 >> 是的。 >> Blackwell 相比 Hopper 提升了 30 倍。因此，你必须放弃 1 吉瓦 30 倍的收入。 >> 嗯。 >> 放弃太多了。因此，即使他们免费给你，你也只有 2 吉瓦可以使用。你的机会成本太高了。 >> 您始终会选择最佳的每瓦性能。所以我从一家超大规模企业的一位首席财务官那里听到了这一点，他给出了芯片中再次出现的性能改进，精确到每千兆的Token和功率是他们必须升级的限制因素。
**English / Original**
Let's pretend somebody else's ASIC is Hopper. >> Yeah. >> Black Wall's 30 times. So you've got to give up 30x revenues in that one gigawatt. >> Mhm. >> It's too much to give up. So even if they gave it to you for free, you you you only have 2 gigawatts to work with. Your opportunity cost is so insanely high. >> You would always choose the best perf per watt. So I heard this from one of the CFOs at one of the hyperscalers that given the performance improvement right that's coming out of your chips again precisely to that point tokens per per gig um and power being the limiting factor right that they had to upgrade uh
## 00:53:05
**中文**
进入新的周期，所以当你展望 Fineman 的 Ruben Ultra 的 Ruben 时 >> 这种轨迹会继续下去 >> 我们现在每年制造六七个芯片 >> 是的，每一个 >> 这是该系统的一部分。 >> 没错。那些系统软件无处不在，并且需要>>它需要对所有这六七个芯片进行集成和优化才能在 30x blackwell 上提供。现在想象一下我每年都会这样做。嘭嘭嘭嘭嘭。因此，如果您在 AS6 芯片汤中构建一个 ASIC，并且我们正在对其进行优化，您知道，这是一个很难解决的问题。
**English / Original**
to the new cycle so when you look ahead at Ruben at Ruben Ultra at Fineman >> does that trajectory continue >> we're building what six seven chips a year now >> yeah and and each one >> that's part of that system. >> That's right. And those that system software is everywhere and it takes >> it takes the integration and the optimization across all of those six seven chips to deliver on the 30x blackwell. Now imagine I'm doing this every single year. Bam bam bam bam bam bam. And so if you build one ASIC in that soup of AS6 in that soup of chips and we're optimizing across that, you know, it's a hard problem to solve.
## 00:53:47
**中文**
>> 这确实让我回到了我们开始谈论竞争护城河的地方。我们已经报道这一点和投资者一段时间了。我们是整个生态系统以及您的竞争对手（从谷歌到博通）的投资者。但当我真的只是围绕这个的首要原则并说>>你是增加还是减少你的竞争模式时，你就会转向每年的节奏。
**English / Original**
>> This does bring me back to where we started about the competitive moat. We've been covering this and investors for a while. We're investors throughout the ecosystem and in competitors of yours, you know, from Google to to Broadcom. But when I really just first principles around this and say >> are you increasing or decreasing your competitive mode, you move to an annual cadence.
## 00:54:13
**中文**
您正在与供应链共同开发。该规模比任何人预期的都要大，这需要资产负债表和发展的规模。正确的？你通过收购以及与我们刚才谈到的 Envy Fusion、CPX 等有机结合所采取的举措。所有这些事情加在一起使我相信，至少在建造工厂或系统方面，你们的竞争模式正在增强。
**English / Original**
You're co-developing with a with a supply chain. The scale is massively bigger than anybody anticipated which requires scale both of balance sheet and of development. Right? the moves you made both through acquisition and organically with things like Envy Fusion, CPX, which we just talked about. All of those things together cause me to believe that your competitive mode is increasing visav at least in so far as building out the factory or the system.
## 00:54:44
**中文**
>> 这至少令人惊讶。 >>但是但是但是我认为有趣的是你的倍数比其他大多数人低得多。我认为部分原因与大数定律有关。一家价值 4.5 万亿美元的公司不可能再变得更大了。但一年半前，当你今天坐在这里时，我问了你这个问题。如果市场转向 AI 工作负载将增长 10 倍或 5 倍，我们知道资本支出在做什么，等等。在您的脑海中是否有任何可以想象的世界，您 5 年内的收入不会比 2025 年大两倍或三倍？考虑到这些，它实际上并不比今天高多少的概率是多少
**English / Original**
>> It's at least surprising. >> But but but I think it's interesting that your multiple is much lower than most of those other people. And I think part of that has to do with this law of large numbers. A $4.5 trillion company couldn't possibly get any bigger. But I asked you this a year and a half ago as you sit here today. If the market's going to AI workloads are going to 10x or 5x, you know, we know what capex is doing, etc. Is there any conceivable world in your mind where your top line in 5 years isn't two or 3x bigger than it is in 2025? Like what's the probability that it's actually not not much higher than it is today given those
## 00:55:27
**中文**
优点？
**English / Original**
advantages?
## 00:55:28
**中文**
>> 我就这样回答吧。正如我所描述的，我们的机会比共识大得多。 >> 我就讲到这里吧。我认为NVIDIA很可能成为第一家市值达到 10 万亿美元的公司。我希望我已经在这里待了足够长的时间，就在不久前，就在十年前，正如你所记得的那样，人们说永远不会有万亿美元的公司。现在我们有 10 个，对吧？如今世界变得更大了，>> 对吗？今天，这就是 GDP 和增长的指数回归。
**English / Original**
>> I'll answer it this way. Our opportunity as I described it is much larger than the consensus. >> I'll say it here. I think Nvidia will likely be the first 10 trillion dollar company. And I would I've been here long enough, it wasn't that long ago, just a decade ago, as you well remember, that people said there could never be a trillion dollar company. Now we have 10, right? And today the world's bigger, >> right? And today, this is this is the back to the exponentials around GDP and the growth.
## 00:55:57
**中文**
>> 世界变得更大，人们误解了我们所做的事情。他们他们呃他们记得我们是一家芯片公司，对吧？我们正在制造芯片。男孩，我们制造芯片并制造世界上最令人惊叹的芯片吗？但NVIDIA确实是一家人工智能基础设施公司。您知道，我们是您的人工智能基础设施合作伙伴，我们与 OpenAI 的合作关系就是这一点的完美体现。
**English / Original**
>> The world is bigger and and and people misunderstand what we do. They they uh they remember we're a chip company, right? And we are we build chips. Boy, do we build chips and build the most amazing chips in the world. But NVIDIA is really an AI infrastructure company. You know, we are your AI infrastructure partner and our partnership with OpenAI is a perfect demonstration of that.
## 00:56:18
**中文**
>> 是的。 >> 我们是他们的人工智能基础设施合作伙伴，我们以多种不同的方式与人们合作。你知道，你你你会呃我们不要求任何人从我们这里购买所有东西。 >> 嗯，我们不要求他们购买整个机架。他们可以购买芯片。他们可以购买一个组件。他们可以购买我们的网络。他们可以购买我们的CPU。我们有客户只购买我们的CPU。你知道，只要购买我们的 GPU，再购买别人的 CPU 和别人的网络。您知道，我们可以按照您喜欢的任何方式进行销售。你知道，我唯一的要求就是从我们这里买一点东西。你知道，你说过，你知道，这不仅仅是更好的模型。我们还必须建设。我们
**English / Original**
>> Yeah. >> That we are their AI infrastructure partner and we work with people in a lot of different ways. You know, you you you would uh we we don't require anybody to buy everything from us. >> Um we don't we don't require that they buy uh the full rack. They could buy a chip. They could buy a component. They could buy our networking. They could buy our We have customers buying only our CPU. You know, just buy our GPUs and buy somebody else's CPUs and somebody else's networking. You know, we're kind of okay selling any way you like to buy. You know, my only request is just buy a little something from us. You know, you said, you know, this isn't just about better models. We also have to build. We
## 00:56:59
**中文**
我们必须拥有世界一流的建设者。你说，你知道，我们国家最世界级的建筑商可能是埃隆·马斯克。我们讨论了巨像一号，以及他在那里做什么，当时站着几十万架 H100、H200，形成一个连贯的集群。现在他正在开发 Colossus 2，你知道，这可能是 500,000 GB，嗯，在一个连贯的集群中相当于数百万个 H100。如果他比其他人先达到吉瓦，我不会感到惊讶。
**English / Original**
have to we have to have worldclass builders. And you said, you know, the most world-class builder maybe that we have in the country is Elon Musk. And we talked about Colossus one and what he, you know, what he was doing there, standing up a couple hundred thousand, you know, at the time H100s, H200s in a coherent cluster. Now he's working on Colossus 2, you know, which may be 500,000 GBs, um, millions of H100 equivalents in a coherent cluster. I would not be surprised if he gets to a gigawatt before anybody else does in one.
## 00:57:31
**中文**
>> 是的。所以稍微说一下这一点。作为构建者的优势不仅在于构建软件和模型，还了解构建这些集群需要什么。 >> 嗯，你知道，这些人工智能超级计算机是很复杂的东西。该技术很复杂。由于融资问题，采购变得很复杂。
**English / Original**
>> Yeah. So say a little bit about that. The advantage of being, you know, the builder who, you know, isn't just building the software and the models, but understands what it takes to to build those clusters. >> Well, you know, these AI supercomputers are complicated things. The technology is complicated. Procuring it is complicated because of financing issues.
## 00:57:51
**中文**
确保陆地电源和外壳的安全以及为其供电是很复杂的。建造这一切，把这一切带出来。我的意思是，不幸的是，这是人类有史以来尝试过的最复杂的系统问题。所以埃隆有一个很大的优势，在他的头脑中，嗯，所有这些系统都是互操作的，嗯，相互依赖关系，嗯，你知道，都存在于一个头脑中，包括融资。
**English / Original**
Securing the land power and shell, powering it is complicated. building it all, bringing it all up. I mean, these are this is unfortunately the most complex systems problem humanity has ever endeavored. And and so Elon has has a great advantage that in his head um all of these systems are interoperating and um and the and the interdependencies um are are um you know resides in one head including the financing.
## 00:58:19
**中文**
>> 是的。 >> 所以>> 他是一个大GPT。他自己就是一台大型超级计算机。 >> 他就是那个。终极 GPU。是的。是的。所以他在那里有很大的优势。是的。 >> 而且他有很强的紧迫感。他是啊。他有一个真正的愿望去建造它，所以什么时候他会与>>一起技能。
**English / Original**
>> Yes. >> And so >> he's a big GPT. He's a big supercomputer himself. >> He's the Yeah. the ultimate GPU. Yeah. Yeah. And so so he has a great advantage there. Yeah. >> And and he has a great sense of urgency. He Yeah. He has a has a real desire to to build it and and so when when will comes together with >> with skill.
## 00:58:41
**中文**
>> 是的。 >> 你知道，难以置信的事情可能会发生。 >> 是的。 >> 是的。相当独特。 >> 你一直参与的一件事是我想谈谈主权人工智能。我想谈谈中国和正在进行的全球人工智能竞赛。你知道，当我回顾30年前的你时，你无法想象这周你会在宫殿里神气活现地和国王闲逛，而你却一直在白宫。总统说过，你和NVIDIA对于美国国家安全至关重要。因此，当你首先看到这一点时，请为我考虑一下背景，很难相信如果主权国家不这样做，你会处于那些地方
**English / Original**
>> Yeah. >> You know, unbelievable things can happen. >> Yes. >> Yeah. Quite unique. >> Something you've been so involved in is I want to talk about sovereign AI. I want to talk about China and the global AI race that's going on. You know, when I look back at you 30 years ago, you couldn't have imagined you were going to be hanging out in palaces with airs and the king this week and you're at the White House all the time. The president has said that you and Nvidia are critical to uh US, you know, national security. So when when you look at that first just contextualize for me like it's hard to believe that you would be in those places if sovereigns didn't
## 00:59:22
**中文**
认为这至少和我们在 1940 年代做核能一样重要，对吧，我们今天没有曼哈顿项目，至少是由政府资助的，但它是由 NVIDIA 资助的，由OpenAI资助的，由 Meta 资助的，由谷歌资助的，我们今天拥有民族国家规模的公司，感谢上帝上帝给了美国，对吧？在我看来，谁在资助总统和国王认为对他们未来的经济和国家安全至关重要的东西。你同意吗？
**English / Original**
view this at least as existential as important as maybe we did nuclear in the 1940s right we don't have a Manhattan project today at least funded by the government but it's funded by Nvidia it's funded by open AI it's funded by Meta it's funded by Google we have companies today the size of nation states and thank god God for America, right? Who are funding something that it appears to me presidents and kings think are think is existential to their future economic and national security. Would you agree with that?
## 00:59:54
**中文**
>> 没有人需要原子弹。每个人都需要人工智能。 >> 说得好。 >> 好的。 >> 这里。这里。 >> 是的。 >> 这里。 >> 所以这是一个非常非常大的差异。嗯，人工智能，正如你所知，人工智能是现代软件。我只是从通用计算开始，到加速计算，从人类编写的代码行，到人工智能编写的代码，基础不能被忘记，我们已经重新发明了计算，地球上没有一个新物种，我们只是重新发明了计算，每个人都需要计算，它需要民主化>>这就是为什么所有这些国家都意识到他们必须进入人工智能世界，因为每个人都需要留在计算中。
**English / Original**
>> Nobody needs atomic bombs. Everybody needs AI. >> Well said. >> Okay. >> Here. Here. >> Yeah. >> Here. >> And and so that's a very very large difference. Um AI AI as you know is modern software. I just that's where I started from general purpose computing to accelerated computing from human written code line at a time to AI written code that foundation can't be forgotten we've reinvented computing there's not a new species on earth we just reinvented computing and everybody needs computing it needs to be democratized >> which is the reason why everybody all of these all of the countries realize they have to get into the AI world because everybody needs to stay in computing.
## 01:00:37
**中文**
世界上没有人会说：“你猜怎么着？你知道，我昨天曾经使用过计算机。你知道，我很擅长明天的俱乐部和火灾，所以每个人都需要转向计算。只是它正在现代化。仅此而已。”好的。第一，嗯，情况是这样的，为了参与人工智能，你必须在人工智能中编码，你的历史，你的文化，你的价值观。
**English / Original**
There's nobody in the world that says, "Guess what? You know, I used to use computers yesterday. I'm pretty good with, you know, clubs and fire tomorrow, you know, and so everybody needs to move into computing. It's just it's just being modernized. That's all." Okay. Number one, um it it is the case that that in order to participate in AI, you have to encode within AI, your your history, your culture, your values.
## 01:01:04
**中文**
>> 当然，人工智能变得越来越聪明，即使是核心人工智能也能够相当快地学习这些东西。你知道，你不必从零开始。所以我认为每个国家都需要拥有一些主权能力。我建议他们都使用 OpenAI，他们都使用 Gemini，他们都使用，你知道，这些开放模型都使用 Grock，我认为我建议他们都这样做。我建议他们都使用人类。
**English / Original**
>> And and of course, AI is getting smarter and smarter so that even the core AI is able to learn these things fairly quickly. You don't have to start from the ground, you know, from ground zero. And so I I think that that every country um needs to have some sovereign capability. I recommend that they all use OpenAI, they all use Gemini, they all use, you know, these open models use Grock and I think they I recommend they all do that. I I recommend they all use anthropic.
## 01:01:30
**中文**
>> 嗯，但他们也应该投入资源来学习如何构建人工智能。原因是因为他们不仅需要学习如何为语言模型构建它，而且还需要为工业模型、制造模型、国家安全、>>国家安全模型构建它。有一大堆智力需要他们自己去培养。所以他们应该拥有主权能力。
**English / Original**
>> Um but they should also dedicate resources to learn how to build AI. And the reason for that is because they need to learn how to build it not just for language models, but they need to build it for industrial models, manufacturing models, national security, >> national security models. There's a whole bunch of intelligence they had to go cultivate themselves. So they they ought to have sovereign capability.
## 01:01:52
**中文**
每个国家都应该发展它。 >> 这就是你所看到的吗？这是你在世界各地听到的吗？ >> 他们都意识到了。 >> 他们都意识到>> 他们都意识到了。他们都将成为 OpenAI、Throbic、Grock 和 Gemini 的客户，但他们都确实需要构建自己的基础设施。这是一个伟大的想法，NVIDIA所做的是我们正在建设基础设施。正如每个国家都需要能源基础设施、通信和互联网基础设施一样，现在每个国家都需要人工智能基础设施。
**English / Original**
Every country should develop it. >> And is that what you see? Is that what you're hearing around the world? >> They all realize it. >> They all realize >> they all realize it. And they they all are going to be customers of OpenAI and Throbic and Grock and Gemini, but they all really need to also build their own infrastructure. And this is this is the big idea that that what Nvidia does is we're building infrastructure. Just as every country needs energy infrastructure, the communications and internet infrastructure, now every single country needs AI infrastructure.
## 01:02:21
**中文**
那么，让我们从世界其他地方开始吧。你知道，我们的好朋友大卫·萨克斯。嗯，AIS 做得非常出色。 >> 我们真是太幸运了。 >> 是的。 >> David 和 Shriram 来到华盛顿特区。嗯，你知道，大卫也在做，是的。在 AISR 中做 AI。呃，特朗普总统将他们送入白宫，这是多么明智的举动啊。
**English / Original**
So you let's start with the rest of the world. You know, our our good friend David Saxs. Um the AIS are doing a heck of a job. >> We are in so lucky. >> Yeah. >> To have David and Shriram in Washington DC. Um doing you know and David doing Yeah. doing AI in the AISR. Uh this at what a what a smart move by President Trump to put them in the White House.
## 01:02:45
**中文**
>> 嗯，因为在这个关键时刻>> 是的。 >>技术复杂。 >> Shriram 是华盛顿特区唯一了解 CUDA 的人。 >> 是的。嗯，无论如何，这很奇怪。但我只是喜欢这样一个事实：在这个技术复杂、政策复杂的关键时刻，对我们国家的未来影响如此之大>>，我们有一个头脑清醒、花时间了解技术的人>>并且深思熟虑地帮助我们渡过难关。
**English / Original**
>> Um because during this pivotal time >> Yes. >> the technology is complicated. >> Shriram is the only person in Washington DC that I think knows CUDA. >> Yeah. Um and and which is strange anyways. But but I I just love the fact that during this pivotal time when technology is complicated, policy is complicated, the impact to the future of our nation is so great >> that we have somebody who is clear-minded, dedicating the time to understand the technology >> and thoughtful to uh help us through that.
## 01:03:18
**中文**
>> 在我看来，是的，我要回到曼哈顿计划的类比。 >> 是的。 >> 对。你有一位了解>>这是多么关乎生存的总统。像德克萨斯州的格雷格·阿博特这样的州长希望取消法规以加速发展，因为他们了解法规的重要性。能源部长、内政部部长道格·贝尔格拉姆和商务部部长卢特尼克也明白这有多重要，他们是多么支持能源。你能想象吗？
**English / Original**
>> And it would seem to me, yeah, I'm going back to the Manhattan Project analogy. >> Yeah. >> Right. that you have a president who understands >> how existential this is. You have governors like Greg Abbott in Texas who want to remove regulations to accelerate because they understand how important it is. You have secretaries right at energy and Doug Bergram at interior and Lutnik at commerce who also understand how important this is, how pro- energy they are. Could you imagine?
## 01:03:48
**中文**
如果我们现在的政府不支持能源并希望能源在我们国家增长以便我们能够拥有人工智能，你能想象另一种选择吗？ >> 我找到了>> 我只是想都不敢想。 >> 我觉得讽刺的是，就在几年前我们还说中国正在建造 100 座核反应堆。他们比我们领先太多了。这就是人工智能的原始形态。但现在当我们去建造它时，每个人都会说，“哦，这是供过于求了，对吧？”在我看来，这是政府的事情，这符合他们的利益。
**English / Original**
Could you imagine the alternative if we had an administration right now who is not proen energy and want energy to grow in our nation so that we could have AI? >> I find it >> I just can't even think about it. >> I find it ironic that that that just a couple years ago we were saying China's building a 100 nuclear reactors. They're so far ahead of us. Like that's the the the primitive to AI. But now you have people when we go to build it, everybody says, "Oh, it's a glut, right?" Like it seems to me that this is something that the government, it is in their interest.
## 01:04:22
**中文**
我们的工业界和政府以我很久没有见过的方式合作。你已经存在很长时间了。现阶段您与特朗普总统的关系非常密切。帮助我们理解行业政府关系的本质是什么？我们上周与所有首席执行官共进了晚餐。你知道，你花了很多时间。
**English / Original**
And we have industry and government working together in a way that I haven't seen in a long time. You've been around a long time. You you're very close with President Trump at this stage. Help us understand like what is the nature of industry government relationships? We saw that dinner last week with all the CEOs. You know, you spent a lot of time.
## 01:04:41
**中文**
它是独一无二的吗？在过去30年的职业生涯中，您是否遇到过类似的情况？ >> 如您所知，过去去华盛顿很困难。呃，预约几乎是不可能的，>>对吧？ >> 特朗普总统向那些想要进来帮助他们了解未来的领导人敞开了大门。嗯，这是一个相信增长的政府。
**English / Original**
Is it unique? Have you seen anything like this in your career over the last 30 years? >> It was it was hard to go to DC in the past as you know. Uh getting an appointment is almost impossible, >> right? >> Uh President Trump has a open door to leaders who wants to come in and uh help them understand the future. Um this is an administration that believes in growth.
## 01:05:04
**中文**
>> 从根本上来说，特朗普总统希望美国发展。 >> 是的。如果我们经济发展了，我们的军事就会强大。如果我们能够实现经济增长，我们就会安全。我从来没有遇到过一个既贫穷又安全的人。 >> 国家富强是国家安全的重要组成部分。他知道这一点。
**English / Original**
>> Fundamentally, President Trump wants America to grow. >> Yeah. If we can grow economically, we will be strong militarily. If we could be if we could grow economically, we will be secure. I've never met somebody who is secure who's poor. >> Being being rich as a nation is an essential part of national security. And he knows that.
## 01:05:24
**中文**
>> 他还希望美国赢得人工智能竞赛。这将是一场非常长期的比赛。嗯，他明白这是一个关键时刻。他希望科技行业能够运转起来。他希望世界上的每个人都以美国技术为基础。 >> 这些都是明智的、合乎逻辑的事情。 >> 你知道，相反的情况对我来说很奇怪。
**English / Original**
>> He also wants America to win the AI the the AI race. This is going to be a very long-term race. And um and he understands that this is a pivotal time. He wants the technology industry to run. He wants everybody in the world to be built on American technology. >> These are sensible, logical things. >> You know, the opposite is strange to me.
## 01:05:48
**中文**
如果我把一切都扭转过来，我们希望我们的国家不要增长>>因为我们不希望我们的国家增长，所以我们不需要任何能源，因为我们知道我们需要能源来增长，所以我们不要有任何能源，事实上我们不希望我们的技术产业处于领先地位。呃他明白我们的科技产业是我们的国宝。
**English / Original**
If I take everything and I just reversed it, we want our country not to grow >> and because we don't want our country to grow, we don't need any energy because we know we need energy to grow and so let's not have any energy and in fact we don't want our technology industry to lead. uh he understands that our technology industry is our national treasure.
## 01:06:08
**中文**
>> 正确。 >> 玉米、钢铁等技术以及过去的事物现在都是如此基本的贸易机会。这是贸易的重要组成部分。为什么你不希望美国技术被每个人觊觎以便用于贸易呢？ >> 对。那么让我们来谈谈您所知道的>>互联网。
**English / Original**
>> Correct. >> And that technology like corn and steel and things in the past are now such fundamental trade opportunities. It's an essential part of trade. And why would you not want American technology to be coveted by everyone so that it could be used for trade? >> Right. So let's talk about you know >> the internet.
## 01:06:30
**中文**
>> 是的。谷歌遍布全球。是的，我们通过搜索将民主价值观传播到世界各地，而谷歌不需要去华盛顿获得许可就可以做到这一点。它就这样发生了。我们将我们的技术传播到世界各地。大卫·萨克斯 (David Sachs) 非常清楚，需要加快出口许可，以便美国的人工智能技术在全球赢得胜利。正确的？
**English / Original**
>> Yeah. Google spread around the world. Yeah, we had democratic values spread around the world by way of search and Google didn't have to go to Washington to get permission to do it. It just happened. We diffused our technology around the world. David Sachs has been crystal clear of the need to accelerate export licenses so that the American AI stack wins around the world. Right?
## 01:06:49
**中文**
我们正在谈论芯片，我们正在谈论模型，我们正在谈论数据中心等等。我们知道一年半前这还没有发生。这个概念被称为小院子高的栅栏或类似的东西。一个小码高的栅栏，具有讽刺意味的是，它是这样描述的，并且在政策中以这样的方式建议它是美国周围的一个小码高的栅栏。
**English / Original**
We're talking chips, we're talking models, we're talking data centers, etc. We know a year and a half ago that wasn't happening. was a concept that was called small yard tall fence or something like that. A small yard tall fence and and the irony of it was it was described in such a way and it was recommended in policy in such a way it was a small yard tall fence around America.
## 01:07:16
**中文**
这就是奇怪的部分。我认为特朗普总统说得对，我们希望最大限度地扩大出口。我们希望最大限度地发挥美国在世界各地的影响力。我们应该最大限度地利用这些东西。 >> 您认为这些许可证即将到来吗？您看到华盛顿的加速了吗？我知道这是高层说的，但你是否看到它通过政府向下流动，从而加速我们在世界各地的发展？
**English / Original**
That was the strange part. I think President Trump's got it right that we want to maximize exports. We want to maximize American influence around the world. We're supposed to maximize those things. >> And do you see those licenses coming? Are you seeing the acceleration in Washington? I know it's being said at the top, but are you seeing it flow down through government that's accelerating us around the world?
## 01:07:40
**中文**
>> 商务部长卢特尼克对此非常关注。 >> 太棒了。是的。 >> 那么，现在我们来谈谈中国。你知道，大多数人可能没有意识到，我认为你了解中国以及任何美国领导人。 >> 我们已经存在 30 年了。 >> 在那里已经 30 年了。大多数人没有意识到，直到几年前，你们在中国占据了主导市场份额，市场份额高达 >> 95%。
**English / Original**
>> Secretary Lutnick was all over it. >> Great. Yeah. >> So, now let's talk about China. You know what most people may not realize is I think you understand China as well as any leader in the United States. >> We've been there for 30 years. >> Been there for 30 years. What most people don't realize is is up until a couple years ago, you had dominant market share within China in terms of >> 95% market share.
## 01:08:02
**中文**
>> 95%的市场份额可以说是最重要的。 >> 你说过，作为一个国家，我们最大的目标是以某种方式试图减缓他们的速度，我们已经单方面解除武装。我们把NVIDIA赶出了中国，这让华为在中国凭借垄断利润加速发展。我今天早上刚看到，华为、阿里巴巴和其他公司宣布他们将在世界各地建立数据中心。现在华为有一个三年计划，要超越NVIDIA，由垄断利润资助成为最大的公司。
**English / Original**
>> 95% market share in the most important thing arguably. >> And you have said that our biggest goal that we as a country could have under the guise of somehow trying to slow them down is we've unilaterally disarmed. We forced Nvidia out of China, which has allowed Huawei to accelerate on the back of monopoly profits within China. And I just saw this morning, you're seeing announcements out of Huawei and Baba and others that they're going to build data centers around the world. Now Huawei has a three-year plan to pass Nvidia funded by the monopoly profits in the biggest
## 01:08:42
**中文**
全球人工智能市场。所以看起来你的警告是，把中国拱手让给中国是一个巨大的错误，你知道，垄断市场正在成为现实。总统说，你知道，在 H20 禁令之后，现在我们面临的情况是，你可以向中国出售芯片，但要征收 15% 的出口税。但现在看来，中国人可能被美国的声明冒犯了，他们说不，NVIDIA不允许在这里销售。现在我们在NVIDIA和中国之间处于什么位置？
**English / Original**
AI market in the world. So it's looking like your admonition that this is a huge mistake to hand China, you know, monopoly markets is coming true. The president said, you know, a a after kind of the ban on H20s, now we have a situation where you can sell, you know, chips to China, but there's a 15% export tax. But now it appears that the Chinese perhaps offended by statements out of the United States are saying no, Nvidia is not allowed to sell here. Now where do we stand today between Nvidia and China?
## 01:09:21
**中文**
您能否重申一下您认为我们作为一个国家应该采取哪些措施来使自己处于赢得全球人工智能竞赛的最佳位置？ >> 我们与中国存在竞争关系。我们应该承认，中国理应希望自己的公司表现出色。我们，我不，我不会为他们而嫉妒他们。他们应该做得很好。他们应该给予他们尽可能多的支持。这都是他们的特权。
**English / Original**
And can you reiterate kind of what you think we as a country should be doing to put ourselves in a best position to win the AI race around the world? >> We have a competitive relationship with China. We should acknowledge that China rightfully should want their companies to do well. We I don't I don't for a second begrudge them for them. They should do well. They should they should give them as much support as they like. It's all their prerogative.
## 01:09:53
**中文**
不要忘记，中国拥有一些世界上最优秀的企业家，因为他们来自世界上一些最好的 STEM 学校。他们是世界上最饥饿的人。 >> 是的。 >> 996 如你所知。 >>这是一个非常>>世界上培养最多AI工程师的地方。 >> 96. 所以观众知道每周 6 天早上 9 点到晚上 9 点。
**English / Original**
And don't forget that China has some of the best entrepreneurs in the world because they came from some of the best STEM schools in the world. They're they're the most hungry in the world. >> Yes. >> 996 as you know. >> This is a very >> producing the most AI engineers in the world. >> 96. So the audience knows 9 in the morning to 9 at night 6 days a week.
## 01:10:16
**中文**
>> 这就是他们的文化。 >> 是的。 >> 好的。我们面对的是一个强大的、创新的、饥饿的、快速发展的、监管不足的国家。 >> 是的。 >> 好的。人们没有意识到这一点。他们的监管非常宽松，>>对吧？具有讽刺意味的是，与我们在资本主义体系中相比，监管更少。 >> 没错。人们认为他们是中央集权的。但请记住，中国的天才在于分布式经济体系。
**English / Original**
>> That is their culture. >> Yeah. >> Okay. We're up against a formidable, innovative, hungry, fastm moving, underregulated. >> Yeah. >> Okay. People don't realize this. They are very lightly regulated, >> right? Less regulated, ironically, than we are in a capitalist system. >> That's right. People think that they're centrally governed. But remember, the genius of China was distributed economic systems.
## 01:10:43
**中文**
>> 是的。 >> 因此，所有这33个>>省份和所有市长经济都带动了巨大的内部竞争、内部经济活力，这当然有一些副作用。但这是一个充满活力、创业精神、高科技的现代产业。还有两个，一，呃，我听到的一些事情，呃，他们永远无法制造人工智能芯片。
**English / Original**
>> Yeah. >> And so all of these 33 >> provinces and all the mayor economy has driven enormous amount of internal competition, internal economic vibrancy, which of course has some of its side effects. But this is a vibrant, entrepreneurial, high techch, modern industry. And two, one, uh, some of the things I I heard, uh, they could never build AI chips.
## 01:11:11
**中文**
这听起来很疯狂。两个，呃，中国无法制造。中国不能制造。如果他们能做的一件事就是制造。第三，他们落后我们很多年。是两年还是三年？快点。他们在我们身后。 >> 纳诺克。 >> 是的，他们就在我们身后。所以我们必须去竞争。
**English / Original**
That just sounded insane. Two, uh, that China can't manufacture. China can't manufacture. If there's one thing they could do is manufacture. And three, they're years behind us. Is it two years, three years? Come on. They're nanconds behind us. >> Nanoc. >> Yeah, they're nanconds behind us. And so we've got to go compete.
## 01:11:32
**中文**
>> 是的，>> 我们必须去竞争。 >> 因此，问题就变成了，嗯，什么是最符合中国的最佳利益的，当然，嗯，他们拥有一个充满活力的行业。呃，他们也公开表示，我理所当然地相信他们相信这是他们希望中国成为一个开放的市场。他们想吸引呃外国投资。
**English / Original**
>> Yeah, >> we've got to go compete. >> And so so the question then becomes um what's in the best interest uh what's in the best interest of China of course um is that they have a vibrant industry. Uh they also publicly say and rightfully I believe they believe this is that they want China to be an open market. They want to attract uh foreign investment.
## 01:11:55
**中文**
他们希望公司来到中国并在市场上竞争，>>对吗？ >> 我相信他们，我希望我相信，我希望在我们的背景下能够回到这一点>>。回答你的问题，我未来会看到什么？我确实希望，因为他们这么说，嗯，他们的领导人这么说，我从表面上看，我相信这一点，因为我认为这对中国来说是有道理的，即外国公司在中国投资、在中国竞争>>并且让他们自己也能进行充满活力的竞争，他们也愿意走出中国并参与世界各地，这对中国来说是有道理的。我认为这是一个相当明智的结果，我们作为一个国家需要做的是
**English / Original**
They want companies to come to China and compete in the marketplace, >> right? >> And I believe that they I hope I believe and I hope that would return to that >> in our context. Answering your question, what do I see in the future? I do hope because they they say it um their leaders say it and I take it at face value and I believe it because I think it makes sense for China that what's in the best interest of China is for foreign companies to invest in China, compete in China >> and for them to also have vibrant competition themselves and they would also like to come out of China and participate around the world. That is I think is a fairly sensible outcome and we what we need to do as a country is to
## 01:12:36
**中文**
使我们今天的科技产业成为可能。我很荣幸能够在我们的国宝产业中工作。我们必须承认它是我们的国宝。这是我们最好的行业。 >> 这是我们最好的行业。 >> 是的。为什么我们不允许这个行业为生存而竞争，让这个行业在世界范围内扩散技术，这样我们就可以让世界建立在美国技术的基础上，这样我们就可以最大限度地实现我们的经济成功，最大化我们的地缘政治影响力，最大化这个技术行业
**English / Original**
enable our technology industry which today is the I'm privileged to be working in an industry that is our national treasure. We have to acknowledge it is our national treasure. It is our best industry. >> It is our single best industry. >> Yeah. Why would we not allow this industry to go compete for its survival for for this industry to go and proliferate the technology around the world so that we could have the world be built on top of American technology so that we can maximize our economic success magn uh maximize our geopolitical influence u maximize this this technology industry
## 01:13:18
**中文**
在这样一个充满活力的时期这样一个让它蓬勃发展的关键时期。 >> 怀疑论者表示，詹森只是想出售更多芯片，如果他能把它们卖到中国，那就太好了。他会把它们卖给中国。你知道，他并不关心这对美国意味着什么。这是一个怀疑论者。现在，>>我可以回答怀疑者吗？仅仅因为我希望美国的生态系统和经济增长并不意味着我错了。
**English / Original**
during such a vibrant time such a pivotal time to allow it to thrive. >> The skeptic says Jensen just wants to sell more chips and if he can sell them to China, great. He'll sell them to China. He doesn't care about, you know, what that means for America. That's a skeptic. Now, >> can I just can I just address the skeptics? Just because I want America in ecosystem and economy to grow doesn't make me wrong.
## 01:13:39
**中文**
>> 对。正确的。 >> 好的。因此，首先，迄今为止关于美国中国的所有言论都被证明是错误的。事实是错误的。基本事实是错误的。因此，仅仅因为我们希望美国获胜，仅仅因为我们希望这个行业发展，我并没有错。 >> 正确。我认为任何认识你的人，包括现在的总统，当然还有我自己，你都非常关心这个国家。您非常希望美国赢得全球人工智能竞赛。你只是碰巧相信，而且我认为你拥有与任何人一样多的经验或更多的经验，这确保了我们赢得全球人工智能竞赛的可能性，这对我们有利
**English / Original**
>> Right. Right. >> Okay. So, first of all, everything that has been said so far that's been made up so far about U. China has proven to be wrong. The facts are just wrong. The ground truth is wrong. And so just because we want America to win, just because we want this industry to grow, doesn't make me wrong. >> Correct. And I think anybody who knows you and now the president, certainly myself, you deeply care about the country. You deeply want the United States of America to win the global ai race. You just happen to believe and I think you have as much experience or more experience than anyone that it enures to our advantage the probability of us winning the global AI race
## 01:14:20
**中文**
如果你在中国竞争，实际上会上升，因为它让我们能够利用世界上一半的人工智能工程师，让他们在这个生态系统中保持了解。让我们明确一下我们在这里谈论的公司，咬舞阿里巴巴等，这些公司主要由美国投资者拥有。正确的。 >> 对。像这些正在构建推荐引擎的全球公司一样，>>顺便说一下，非凡的技术，>>令人难以置信的公司。因此，我认为并且我对此抱有希望>>您正在使中国变得更加美好的论点，这比传播到世界其他地区更难。
**English / Original**
actually goes up if you are competing in China because it allows us to tap into half of the world's AI engineers keeping them you know in this ecos let's be clear with the companies we're talking about here bite dance Alibaba etc these are companies that are largely owned by American investors Yeah. Right. >> Right. Like these are global companies that are building recommener engines that >> by the way extraordinary technologies, >> incredible companies. And so I think and I'm hopeful >> that the argument that you're making visav China, which is a harder argument than diffusion to the rest of the world.
## 01:14:54
**中文**
我明白这一点。这就是为什么当总统说，你知道，我不知道，这就像掷硬币一样。也许詹森是对的。也许其他人是对的。如果 Jensen 愿意将 15% 的资金存入美国财政部作为对冲，那么我就会这么做。嗯，但紧随其后我真的很失望。
**English / Original**
I understand that. And that's why I thought when the president said, you know, I don't know, it's a flip of a coin. Maybe Jensen's right. Maybe the other guys are right. If Jensen's willing to put a little bit of 15% into the US Treasury as a hedge on that, then I'll go for it. Um, but I was really disappointed on the heels of that.
## 01:15:13
**中文**
>> 嗯。 >> 嗯，我认为，如果中国人觉得他们被利用了，我们将向他们发送 10 年前的芯片或类似的芯片，那么我就会明白为什么他们会有这样的反应。 >> H20确实还是相当壮观的。我当然认为它不如布莱克威尔，我明白了。是的。
**English / Original**
>> Mhm. >> Um, I think if the Chinese feel like they're being taken advantage of that we're going to send them chips that are, you know, 10 years old or something, then I then I get why why they had that response. >> H20 is really quite spectacular still. And I of course it it's it's not as good as Blackwell and and I get that. Yeah.
## 01:15:32
**中文**
>> 嗯，我看，你知道，我们很有耐心，而且我相信他们很聪明。他们正在考虑自己的处境。嗯，他们有更大的议程来处理嗯，你显然知道美国。目前正在进行很多讨论。但我会回到基本事实的基本事实。我相信NVIDIA能够服务该市场并参与该市场竞争符合中国的最大利益。我从根本上相信这符合中国的最大利益。这当然符合美国的巨大利益。
**English / Original**
>> Um I look, you know, we're I'm patient and and I believe that they're they're wise. They're thinking through their situation. Um they they have they have larger agendas to to deal with um rel you know visibly uh the United States. There are a lot of discussions going on. But I'll come back to the ground truth fundamental truth. I believe that is in the best interest of China that Nvidia is able to serve that market and compete in that market. I fundamentally believe is in the best interest of China. It is of course um fantastic in the fantastic interest of the United States.
## 01:16:09
**中文**
>> 是的，>> 很有趣。但这两个事实可以共存。两者都有可能都是真的，而且我相信两者都是真的。 >> 所以我，呃，我宁愿，>> 你知道，即使我告诉我们所有的投资者 >> 是的。 >> 我们的指导不包括中国。 >> 是的。我感谢我们所有的投资者在我们的任何指导中不包括中国。
**English / Original**
>> Yeah, >> it is fun. But those two truths can coexist. It is possible for both to be true and I believe it is both true. >> And so I I um uh I I'm rather, >> you know, even though I tell all of our investors >> Yeah. >> that our guidance includes no China. >> Yeah. And I appreciate all of our investors to include no China in any of our guidance.
## 01:16:31
**中文**
>> 我们在外部有大量的增长机会，而且您知道我们拥有所有这些都是事实。 >> 这并不意味着中国对我们不重要。这对我们来说非常重要。任何认为中国市场不重要的人都是彻底陷入困境。 >> 是的。 >> 因此，这是世界上最重要的市场之一。如您所知，聪明的市场，聪明的人做聪明的事，我们希望在那里。
**English / Original**
>> We've got plenty of growth opportunities outside and we you know we've got all of that is true. >> It doesn't make China not important to us. It's very important to us. Anybody who thinks that the Chinese market is not important is has their head deep in the sand. >> Yeah. >> And so this is s one of the most important markets in the world. Smart markets as you know, smart people doing smart things and we want to be there.
## 01:16:54
**中文**
>> 是的。我认为我们在那里符合两国的最佳利益。因此，我认为当我退一步时，我相信智慧最终会占上风。 >> 是的。 >> 是的。 >> 我一直坚信，智慧必胜。我一直坚信真理会占上风，呃，它已经带我走到了这一步，呃，我相信我现在相信这基本上是正确的。所以这些事情都会得到解决，我们将有机会在中国市场竞争。
**English / Original**
>> Yeah. And I think it's in the best interest of both countries that we are there. And so I think when I take a step back, I am confident that ultimately the wisdom will prevail. >> Yes. >> Yes. >> I've I've always been confident that wisdom prevails. I've always been confident that that truth prevails and uh it's taken me this far and uh I believe I believe that to be fundamentally true now. And so these things will get sorted out and we will have the opportunity to go compete in that China market.
## 01:17:24
**中文**
>> 我不太关心政治，但非常热门的是政府决定对每个 H1B 签证收取 100,000 美元的费用。 >> 嗯。 >> 你和总统一起度过了很多时间。嗯，你称他为我们人工智能领域的秘密武器。 >> 我也知道您想招募最优秀、最聪明的人才到我们国家。 >> 是的。那么，您如何看待每个H1B签证收费10万的决定？
**English / Original**
>> I'm not very political, but very topical is the administration's decision to charge 100,000 per H1B visa. >> Mhm. >> You've spent a lot of time with the president. Um you've called him our secret weapon in AI. >> I also know you want to recruit the best and brightest to our country. >> Yeah. So, how do you think about the decision to charge 100,000 per H1B visa?
## 01:17:49
**中文**
这会让招聘人才变得更容易还是更困难？而且，您知道，对于大公司或小公司来说，情况可能有点不同吗？比如说，你觉得怎么样？ >> 我将从这是一个很好的开始开始。 >> 坚持住。你说这是一个很好的开始。 >> 这是一个很好的开始。 >> 我将从这里开始。原因是这样的。
**English / Original**
Does this make it easier or harder to recruit talent? And, you know, does perhaps it's a little different for large companies or small companies? Like, how do you think about it? >> I'm going to start with it's a great start. >> Hold on. You said it's a great start. >> It's a great start. >> I'm just going to start there. And the reason for that is this.
## 01:18:07
**中文**
>> 这意味着我不希望这不是结束，>> 但我认为这是一个很好的开始。我只是希望这不是结束。这就是我的基本信念。美国拥有世界上任何一个国家都没有的独特品牌声誉。世界上没有一个国家有能力或有能力说来到美国实现美国梦。 M>>后面有“梦想”二字的是哪个国家？
**English / Original**
>> That implies I don't I hope it's not the end, >> but I think it's a great start. I just hope it's not the end. Here's what I fundamentally believe. America has one a singular brand reputation that no country in the world has. And no country in the world is in a position or in the horizon to be able to say come to America and realize the American dream. M >> what country has the word dream behind it?
## 01:18:44
**中文**
>> 是的，这是其品牌的一部分。 >> 我们是独一无二的，而你正在与代表美国梦的人交谈。我的父母没有钱。派我们到这里来。我们从一无所有开始。你们知道我，你知道，破坏桌子、洗碗、清洁厕所，我就在这里。 >> 是的。 >> 这就是美国梦。特朗普总统知道>>我们需要合法移民。
**English / Original**
>> Yes, it's part of its brand. >> We are utterly singular and you're talking to somebody who represents the American dream. My parents didn't have any money. Sent us over here. We started from nothing. You guys know I, you know, bust tables, wash dishes, clean toilets, and here I am. >> Yeah. >> This is the American dream. President Trump knows that >> we want legal immigrants.
## 01:19:08
**中文**
>> 是的。合法移民和非法移民之间是有区别的。 >> 但认为这是一个人人享有自由的国家的想法是没有意义的。 >> 所以现在的问题是，我们如何从根本上保护美国梦的想法转向处理如此大规模的非法移民？嗯，我们如何找到一个合乎逻辑、务实的解决方案？
**English / Original**
>> Yeah. there's a difference between legal immigrants and illegal immigrants. >> But the idea that it's a country that's free for all doesn't make sense. >> And so now the question is how do we go from the the idea that we want to protect fundamentally the American dream to dealing with illegal immigrants at such a large scale? Um how do we find a logical pragmatic solution?
## 01:19:34
**中文**
>> 对吗？所以，他认为我们给 H-1B 贴上 100,000 美元的价格标签的想法可能把门槛设置得太高了，>> 但作为第一个门槛，它至少消除了非法移民，这是一个好的开始。 >> 如何消除非法移民？ >> 嗯，它至少消除了>> H-1B 的滥用。是的。是的。至少。这是一个好的开始。至少我们可以谈谈。
**English / Original**
>> Right? So, the idea that he that that that we put a $100,000 price tag on H-1B um probably sets the bar a little too high, >> but as a first bar, it at least eliminates um illegal immigration, and that's a good start. >> How does it how does eliminate illegal immigration? >> Well, it at least it eliminates abuse of >> abuse of H-1B. Yeah. Yeah. At least. And and that's a good start. and at least we can have a conversation.
## 01:20:04
**中文**
>> 所以，我们对特朗普总统的了解之一是，他是一位很好的倾听者。 >> 他确实在听。我的意思是，他听你的，他听我的，而且>>他不必这样做。他听取了很多人的意见，整合了很多信息，这显然是一个非常复杂的问题。 >> 所以，所以我认为这是一个很好的开始。这是一个良好的开始。但我并不感到困惑，政府中的任何人，白宫的任何人都对合法移民、移民是美国梦的基础感到困惑，是我们想要保护的最终品牌，也是我们想要保护的未来。
**English / Original**
>> So, one of the things that we know about President Trump, he's he he's a good listener. >> He actually listens. I mean, he listens to you, he listens to me, and >> he doesn't have to. And he listens to a lot of people, and he's integrating a lot of information, and this is obviously a very complicated issue. >> And so, so I think that that this is a fine start. It's a fine start. But I I I'm not confused that that anyone in the administration, anyone in the White House is confused that legal immigration, immigration is the foundation of the American dream and is the ultimate brand that we want to protect and that's the future we want to protect.
## 01:20:41
**中文**
>> 我还想说，在我看来，萨克斯和政府中的其他人当然知道我们必须招募世界上最优秀和最聪明的人。我们不应该牺牲品牌的伟大性。嗯，收费 100,000 美元，或者比方说，你知道，它被降低到 50 美元或无论什么情况，>> 看起来确实如此，它使竞争环境向有利于能够有效赞助所有这些人的大公司倾斜，>> 对吗？
**English / Original**
>> And I would also say it seems to me that certainly Saxs and other people in the administration know that we have to recruit the world's best and brightest. we should not sacrifice the greatness of the brand. Um, charging $100,000 or let's say, you know, it got lowered to 50 or whatever the case is, >> it does seem like it it it it tilts the playing field in favor of big companies who can effectively sponsor all these people, >> right?
## 01:21:06
**中文**
>> 对于初创生态系统来说，这更具挑战性，因为那里的人员已经非常昂贵，现在我还必须支付这笔费用。 >> 它还会产生意想不到的后果。它可能会加速美国以外的投资，>>对吧？所以会有意想不到的后果，但就像我说的，>>从某个地方开始，朝着正确的答案前进，对吧？你知道，很多时候人们想直接从错误的答案、错误的情况出发。我们不希望出现这种情况，>> 对吧？
**English / Original**
>> And it's more challenging for the startup ecosystem where people are already super expensive and now I got to pay this fee on top of it. >> It also has an un an unintended consequence. It might um accelerate investment outside United States, >> right? And so there there are unintended consequences, but like I said, >> start somewhere, move towards the right answer, right? You know, often times people want to go directly from a wrong answer, wrong condition. We don't want this condition where we're at, >> right?
## 01:21:32
**中文**
>> 而直接跳到完美答案很难找到，>> 对吧？ >> 从某个地方开始。这就是创业之道。 >> 这对我来说很重要，你知道，总统之前在竞选公职时谈到过，他想将绿卡钉在这些 STEM 学生的文凭上。太聪明了 >> 从中国来美国的人工智能研究人员在斯坦福大学学习，就像我们想让他们留在这里，我们想让你知道，顺便说一句 >> 如果他们的家人无法到达这里 >> 他们会在几年后离开，所以你甚至可能想让他们的家人更容易来这里，其他人你对我们本届政府有一个战略计划有信心吗
**English / Original**
>> And directly jump to the perfect answer is hard to find, >> right? >> Just start somewhere. It's the entrepreneurial way. >> It's important to me, you know, the president talked about before when he was running for office, he wanted to staple a green card to the, you know, to the diplomas of these STEM students. so smart >> people coming to the United States from from China AI researchers studying at Stanford like we want to keep them here we want to get you know and by the way >> if their families can't get here >> they're going to leave after a few years so you might even want to make it easier for their families to come here and others are you confident that we have a strategic plan in this administration
## 01:22:11
**中文**
你知道这是一个开始，但你与交谈者的对话让你相信我们有更广泛的战略计划，以确保我们招募最优秀和最聪明的人才。 >> 我不知道我对此有答案。 >> 好的。 >> 嗯，但我知道我们现在的处境并不是我们想要的。 >> 是的。 >> 我认为没有人失去了对美国梦、移民的重要性、吸引世界上所有最优秀人才到美国、为他们留在这里创造条件的重要性的关注。我有时会做一些与我刚才描述的相反的事情，>>对吧？
**English / Original**
you know this is a start but your convers conversations they give you confidence that we have a broader strategic plan to make sure we're recruiting the best and the brightest. >> I don't know that I have an answer for that. >> Okay. >> Um but I understand that where we're at is not where we want to be. >> Yeah. >> And I don't think anybody's lost lost their focus on, you know, the American dream, the importance of immigration, the importance of attracting all of the world's best talent to United States, create the conditions for them to stay here. I there are things that are done um from time to time that works against what I just described, >> right?
## 01:22:50
**中文**
>> 嗯，让外国学生感到不舒服，>> 对，>> 并且出现在品牌中会威胁到品牌。 >> 嗯，我们不要忘记>> 与中国竞争是可以的，>> 但要小心不要对中国人太强硬。 >> 所以我们需要确保不会越过这个滑坡。是的。
**English / Original**
>> Um making making foreign students uncomfortable, >> right, >> and being here in the brand threatens the brand. >> Um uh let's not let's not forget that >> that it's okay to be competitive with China, >> but be careful not to be tough on Chinese. >> And so we need to make sure that that slippery slope isn't crossed. Yeah.
## 01:23:11
**中文**
>> 嗯，你知道，所以所有这些事情都与技巧和细微差别相伴。 >> 但事实是我们知道我们想要去哪里。我们知道我们的处境很困难。我们不想留在这里，特朗普总统没有太多时间来推动我们朝这个方向发展。 >> 对。 >> 因此，就我们朝这个方向前进而言，>> 我相信这是一个好的开始。
**English / Original**
>> Um, you know, and so there there all of these things that goes along with with finesse and nuance. >> But the fact of the matter is we know where we want to be. We know we're in a difficult situation. We don't want to be here and President Trump doesn't have much time to move us in that direction. >> Right. >> And so to the extent that we move in that direction, >> I believe it's a good start.
## 01:23:31
**中文**
>> 同意。 >> 是的。我从领导我们美国领先实验室之一的一位中国研究人员那里听说，三年前，从中国大学毕业的顶尖人工智能研究人员中有 90% 想要来美国，并且确实来到美国在我们领先的实验室工作，他猜测今天这个比例接近 10% 或 15%。
**English / Original**
>> Agreed. >> Yeah. I heard from a Chinese researcher leading one of our leading labs in the US >> that three years ago 90% of the top AI researchers graduating from universities in China >> wanted to come to the United States and did come to the United States to work in our leading labs >> and he guessed that today that's closer to 10 or 15%.
## 01:23:58
**中文**
>> 对吗？所以看到了急剧下降。 >> 这正是我们所关心的问题，>> 对吧？那么你见过这个吗？您知道您正在关注这两个市场吗？你看到这个了吗？为了扭转这种局面，我们需要做哪些事情？ >> 肯定会看到来到这里并留在这里的中国学生更加关心。
**English / Original**
>> Right? So seen a precipitous drop. >> That's precisely a concern that we have, >> right? So have you seen this? Have you you you know you're you're paying attention to both markets. Do you see this? And what are the things we need to do in order to reverse that? >> Definitely see a greater concern of of Chinese students um who who come here and um uh remain here.
## 01:24:23
**中文**
>> 是的。或者他们中的许多人来这里上学并正在考虑去其他地方，对吧？ >> 他们中的许多人都在考虑欧洲，>> 对吗？ >> 所以我认为我们需要非常非常关注这一点。这就是>>这是存在危机的根源>>。 >> 这绝对是未来问题的早期迹象。
**English / Original**
>> Yeah. and or many of them who come here for for school and are thinking about going elsewhere, right? >> Many of them thinking about Europe, >> right? >> And so so I think I think we need to be super super concerned about this. This is this is >> this is a source >> of existential crisis. >> This is definitely the early indicators of a future problem.
## 01:24:44
**中文**
>> 对。正确的。你知道，聪明人渴望来到美国，聪明人渴望留下来，>> 这些就是我所说的 KPI。 >> 是的。 >> 未来成功的早期指标。 >> 是的。 >> 我觉得这有点像勇士队。要知道，如果他们有一个优势，招募了NBA所有最好的球员，对吧，那么他们就可以继续赢得总冠军。是的，>>但是第二个招募渠道，>>对，因为勇士队的品牌被削弱或者发生了其他事情，>>嗯，那么他们将无法招募到未来最好的球员，你也不会赢得冠军。
**English / Original**
>> Right. Right. you know, smart people's desire to come to to America and smart peop smart students desire to stay, >> those are what I would call KPIs. >> Yes. >> Early indicators of future success. >> Yes. >> I think of it a bit like the Warriors. You know, if they have an advantage of recruiting all the best players in the NBA, right, then they can continue to win championships. Y, >> but the second that recruiting pipeline, >> right, because of the brand of the Warriors gets diminished or something else happens, >> um, then they're not going to be able to recruit the best future players and you're not going to win championships.
## 01:25:21
**中文**
当我如此雄辩地谈论美国梦时，那就是美国品牌，>>对吗？有权来到这里并做你已经做过的事情。你知道，所以我希望向本届政府提供反馈，这不仅仅是政府，也是我们作为一个国家谈论移民的方式。 >> 没错。
**English / Original**
And when I you talk about the American dream so eloquently, that being brand USA, >> right? The right to come here and to to do what you've done. And you know, so I hope that the feedback to this administration, it's not just the administration, it's also just how we as a country talk about immigration. >> That's right.
## 01:25:40
**中文**
>> 对。这里需要成为一个欢迎最优秀、最聪明的人才的地方，吸引最优秀、最聪明的人才，并制定战略计划来招募最优秀、最聪明的人才，并确保这是他们想要工作的地方。 >> 如你所知，有一个短语，直到几年前我才听说这个短语，对华鹰派。是的。
**English / Original**
>> Right. This needs to be the place that welcomes the best and the brightest, that attracts, has a strategic plan for recruiting the best and the brightest and making sure that this is the place that they want to work. >> As you know, there's in in there's a there's a phrase, and I didn't hear about this phrase until just a few years ago, China hawks. Yes.
## 01:26:00
**中文**
>> 显然，如果你是对华鹰派，你就可以自豪地贴上这个标签。这几乎就像一个荣誉徽章，>>对吧？ >> 这是一个耻辱的徽章。 >> 毫无疑问，这是一种耻辱。 >> 毫无疑问，尽管他们想要符合我们国家最大利益的东西，而我们都想要符合我们国家最大利益的东西，>> 嗯摧毁那条管道，>> 对，>> 美国梦，>> 是的。
**English / Original**
>> And and apparently that if you're a China hawk, you get to wear that label with pride. It's almost like a badge of honor, >> right? >> It's a badge of shame. >> There's no question it's a badge of shame. >> There's no question that although they want what's in the best interest of our country, and we all want what's in the best interest of our country, >> um destroying that pipeline, >> right, >> of the American dream, >> Yeah.
## 01:26:22
**中文**
>> 不爱国，>> 对吧？他们认为他们认为自己正在为我们的国家做正确的事情，但这并不爱国。没有 一点点也没有。 >>因此，我们需要嗯，继续成为一个伟大的国家，拥有一个伟大国家的信心，>>对，>>。 >> 是的。说得好。 >> 要有一个伟大国家的信心，要有一个愿意与我们竞争的人，要有态度，加油。
**English / Original**
>> is not patriotic, >> right? They they think they think they're doing the right thing for our country, but it's not patriotic. Not Not even a little bit. >> And so we we need to um continue to be uh the great country we are, to have the confidence, >> right, >> of a great country. >> Yes. Well said. >> And to have the confidence of a great country and and have somebody who wants to compete with us and to have the attitude, bring it on.
## 01:26:50
**中文**
>> 对。正确的。 >> 来吧。 >> 对。因为我相信我相信我们的人民。我相信我们的人民。我相信这里的人。我相信我们的文化。我相信我们的国家。我相信我们的系统。来吧。您认为那是总统所在的地方吗？就像他是一个实用主义者一样。他相信美国的增长和竞争能力。嗯，在我看来，他就在那里。
**English / Original**
>> Right. Right. >> Bring it on. >> Right. because I believe in I believe in our people. I believe in our people. I believe in the people that are here. I believe in our culture. I believe in our country. I believe in our system. Bring it on. And is it your take that that's where the president is? Like he's a he's a pragmatist. He's a he's a believer in the growth and the ability of the United States to compete. Um it seems to me that's where he is.
## 01:27:18
**中文**
>> 毫无疑问，特朗普总统是最有权力的总统。 >> 对。正确的。在我看来，他似乎并不像我有信心的原因，我在这个播客中说过，我认为他会与中国达成一项大交易。 >> 我真的真的希望如此。 >> 是的。 >> 我认为他在谈论他的关系和中国的重要性时，他带着极大的尊重和雄辩的态度积极地谈论他的关系和中国的重要性。呃，我从来没有听过他说过“脱钩”这个词，我们在上届政府中经常听到这个词，>>对吧？
**English / Original**
>> There's no question President Trump is the bring it on president. >> Right. Right. And he doesn't seem to me like the reason I'm confident and I've said on this pod that I think he'll get a big deal done with China. >> I I really really do hope so. >> Yeah. >> And and I I think he he speaks he he speaks positively um uh uh with great respect and um great eloquence about about his relationship and the importance of China. Uh, not one time have I ever heard him say the word decouple, which we heard a lot in the last administration, >> right?
## 01:27:51
**中文**
>> 嗯，你不能将下个世纪最重要的两个关系与嗯脱钩。这根本没有任何意义。解耦是完全错误的概念。 >> 对吗？ >> 我的意思是，在我看来，他和斯科特·贝森似乎在说，“听着，我们需要让美国变得伟大。我们需要重新工业化。我们需要平衡并确保我们有公平贸易。嗯，我们保护我们需要帮助建设的产业，中国帮助我们做到这一点，认识到我们在过去 25 年里帮助他们做到了这一点。但最终他说，了解我的最好方式是我是一个伟大的交易撮合者。
**English / Original**
>> Um, you can't decouple against um the single most the two most important relationships for the next century. That doesn't make any sense at all. Decoupling is exactly the wrong concept. >> Right? >> I mean, it seems to me he and Scott Besson are saying, "Listen, we need to make America great. We need to re-industrialize America. We need to balance and make sure that we have fair trade. Um that we protect industries that we need to help build that China helps us do that recognizing that we have helped them do it over the course of the last 25 years. But that ultimately he said the best way to understand me is I'm a great dealmaker.
## 01:28:28
**中文**
我做的交易是正确的，而我认为在其他阵营中有些人是反传统或教条主义的。呃，你知道，这只是对中国存在着一场大国斗争的冷淡看法。与这个想法相比，一个人必须赢，一个人必须输>>每个国家都必须看起来与我们的国家一模一样，>>对吗？ >> 你知道，我们想要多样性。
**English / Original**
I make deals right whereas I think in other camps there are people who are iconoclastic or dogmatic. Uh you know it's the mere shimer view of China that there's a great power struggle. one was must win and one must lose versus this idea >> the idea that every country has to look exactly like ours, >> right? >> You know, and we we want diversity.
## 01:28:49
**中文**
>> 你希望美国获胜，但这并不一定要以戳眼睛并告诉其他人他们必须失败为代价>>因为我们有信心。 >> 是的，我们就是这么有信心。 >> 因为我们就是那么强大。因为我们就是那么不可思议。正如你所知，我没有遇到任何麻烦，我与生态系统中的所有同事合作都没有遇到任何麻烦，对吗？请注意，我们刚刚完成了最终交易，>> 对吧？与英特尔合作，>>一家花了大部分时间试图让我们破产的公司，对吗？
**English / Original**
>> You want America to win, but that doesn't have to come at the expense of poking an eye and telling somebody else they have to lose >> because we're that confident. >> Yeah, we're that confident. >> Because we're that mighty. Because we're that incredible. I've got no trouble, as you know, I've got no trouble working with all my colleagues in the ecosystem, right? And notice we just did the ultimate deal, >> right? Partnering with Intel, >> a company that spent most of its life trying to put us out of business, right?
## 01:29:15
**中文**
>> 我与他们合作没有遇到任何困难，>> 对吧？ >> 你知道，所以，其原因是因为第一，继续吧。 >> 是的。 >> 第二，未来更加美好。 >> 不一定是我们所有人或他们。可能是我们和他们。 >> 是的。 >> 是的。但尽管如此，还是带上它吧。 >> 是的。同意。你知道，你提到了对我们双方都非常重要的事情。你和我已经谈论了很多关于美国梦的话题，>>你知道，我认为亚伯拉罕·林肯曾说过：“美国梦的基础是崛起的权利。”
**English / Original**
>> And I had no trouble partnering with them, >> right? >> You know, and so, and the reason for that is because number one, bring it on. >> Yes. >> And number two, the future is so much greater. >> It doesn't have to be all us or them. It could be us and them. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. But nonetheless, bring it on. >> Yeah. Agreed. You know, you you you mentioned something that's profoundly important to both of us. You and I have talked a lot about this, the American dream, >> you know, and it was, I think, Abraham Lincoln who said, "Fundamental to the American dream is the right to rise."
## 01:29:45
**中文**
>> 是的。这是正确的。 >> 相信您的孩子可以比您做得更好。 >> 没错。 >> 对。而你，你已经体验到了崛起的权利。在美国，我们都经历过崛起的权利。 >> 所以，是的，你去维基百科，查找美国梦、我的照片，>> 对吗？ >> 是的。以及最终的美国梦。
**English / Original**
>> Yeah. That's right. >> The belief that your kids can do better than you did. >> That's right. >> Right. And you you've experienced the right to rise. We've all experienced the right to rise in America. >> So, yeah, you go to Wikipedia, you look up American dreams, my picture, >> right? >> Yeah. And the ultimate American dream.
## 01:30:01
**中文**
然而，由于这些技术系统的性质，我们生活在这个时代，我们拥有的公司价值将达到 10 万亿美元。我们可能会拥有价值一万亿美元的个人。这些都是激励人们奋发向上的动力。但与此同时，当我们进入这个富裕的时代时，我深感担忧的是太多的人被抛在了后面。
**English / Original**
And yet we live at this time where because of the nature of these technological systems, we have companies that are going to be worth 10 trillion. We'll probably have individuals that are worth a trillion. Those are the incentives that give people the the encouragement to rise. But at the same time, when we head into this age of abundance, something that I was deeply worried about was that too many people get left behind.
## 01:30:25
**中文**
>> 是的。 >> 对。他们感到被忽视、被抛在后面。因此，他们攻击这种资本主义制度是有道理的。你和我一起工作，我深深感激的是“投资美国”（Invest America）计划，我们必须让每个孩子一出生就开始资本主义体系下“向上流动的权利”之旅，给他们一千美元在像NVIDIA这样的伟大公司>>社会保障>>和OpenAI 等公司。嗯，他们受益>>就像国家获胜一样，他们获胜并且他们个人拥有它，他们可以在他们的>>每个孩子都是美国未来的股东>>美国。所以在 200 上，因为你们的支持，我想抓住这个播客的机会，并得到以下人士的支持
**English / Original**
>> Yeah. >> Right. And they feel left out and left behind. So it makes sense for them to attack this system of capitalism. Something that you and I worked on together and I'm deeply grateful for was the idea of invest America that we have to start every kid at birth on the capitalist right to rise journey give them a thousand bucks in great companies like Nvidia >> social security >> and and and open a high etc. Um and they benefit >> right as the as the comp country wins they win and they own it individually they can see it on their >> every kid is a shareholder in the future of America >> of America. So on the 200 because of your support and I wanted to take the chance on this podcast and the support of
## 01:31:05
**中文**
>> 嗯，我要感谢你启动它、推动它。 >> 是的。 >> 是的。多好的主意啊。 >> 你知道，所以>>你是个天才。 >>请通过>>大漂亮的账单中。 >> 大多数人甚至还没有意识到这一点。 >> 从 2026 年开始，这个国家历史上每一个永远出生的孩子 >> 将在出生时拥有一个投资账户。是的。
**English / Original**
>> Well, I want to thank you for starting it, for driving it. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. What a great idea. >> And you know, so this >> you're a genius. >> The Please this passed >> in the big beautiful bill. >> Most people don't even realize that yet. >> Starting in 2026, every child born forever more in the history of this country >> will start off with an investment account at birth. Yeah.
## 01:31:29
**中文**
>> 在美国最好的公司里赚到了一千美元，而你的公司同意不仅将你的员工的孩子的账户添加进去，甚至可能还会将其他人的孩子的账户添加进去。你知道，我将收养学校，以及许多慈善家和公司。我们认为美国的每家公司>>都是公司回馈社会的好方法，>>对吗？
**English / Original**
>> Seen a thousand bucks in the best American companies and your company has agreed to add to the accounts of not only the kids who work for your employees but maybe even kids of others. I'm going to adopt schools, you know, and lots of philanthropists and companies. We think every company across America >> wonderful way for companies to give back, >> right?
## 01:31:46
**中文**
>> 是的。作为 401k 的一部分。在我看来，这是社会契约需要发生的变革的一部分，因为如果我们看到这种指数级的进步，我们就知道政府在社会契约中的演变需要跟上它。嗯，显然特朗普总统以及众议院和参议院的两党团体已将其纳入法律。因此，当您考虑即将发生的变化的速度和幅度时，也许可以和我们谈谈，对吧？嗯，我知道你相信这会带来好处，但沿途也会有一群人流离失所。我们可能需要这样的东西和其他东西，
**English / Original**
>> Yeah. as part of the 401k. This seems to me to be part of the change in the social contract that needs to occur because if if we're seeing this exponential progress, we know that the the evolution of government in the social contract needs to keep up with it. Um obviously President Trump and and bipartisan group in the House and Senate passed this into law. So maybe just talk to us a little bit when you think about the the pace and magnitude of changes that are coming, right? Um I know you believe it will be a net good, but there also going to be a bunch of people displaced along the way. We probably need things like this and other things,
## 01:32:28
**中文**
>> 对吗？你知道，为了带领每个人一起踏上这段旅程。特朗普总统做了很多事情，让我先从这里开始，这些事情对于带动所有人都非常有好处。首先是美国的再工业化。 >> 是的。特朗普总统、商务部长卢特尼克，你知道他们都在幕后支持他们所做的所有工作，鼓励公司来美国建厂、投资工厂以及呃对熟练劳动力进行再培训和提高技能，对吗？
**English / Original**
>> right? In order to, you know, bring everybody along for the journey. There's several things that that President Trump has done and let me just start start there has done that is incredibly good for bringing everybody along. The first thing is reindustrializing America. >> Yeah. President Trump, Secretary Lutnik, the you know they're all in behind that all the work that they're doing encouraging companies to come build here in the United States, investing in factories and uh reskilling and upskilling that skilled labor workforce, right?
## 01:33:04
**中文**
>> 对我们的国家具有难以置信的价值。嗯，我们不再只有你获得博士学位或者你去你知道的一所伟大的学校，只有这样你才能建立美好的生活>>并且值得拥有美好的生活呃我们必须改变所有没有任何意义的东西我们热爱工艺>>我爱那些用手制作东西的人，我们现在要回去建造东西>>建造宏伟的令人难以置信的东西我喜欢>>是的>>那就是改变美国。
**English / Original**
>> Incredibly valuable to our country. um the idea that that we no longer uh uh uh make it only that you get a PhD or you go to you know one of the great schools and only in that way can you build a great life right >> and and deserve to have a great living uh we've got to change all that doesn't make any sense we love craft right >> I love people who make things with their hands and and we're now we're now going to go back and build things >> build magnificent incredible things I love that >> yes >> that's going to transform form America.
## 01:33:37
**中文**
毫无疑问。有一个整体，一个整体的经济体系，整个社会体系，嗯嗯，因为我们外包了一切，所以很大程度上被抛在了后面，>>对吧？ >> 现在，我并不是建议我们将一切都内包，>> 对吗？ >> 你知道，所有争论制造网球鞋和牙签的人，我的意思是，你知道，这就是将一个完美的讨论贬低到某种疯狂的程度。你知道，我们必须认识到，美国的再工业化从根本上来说将成为变革的第一要务。第二，>>并且有抱负。
**English / Original**
There's no question about that. There's a whole there's a whole a whole band of an economy, a whole band of society that that um uh has been largely left behind because we outsourced everything, >> right? >> Now, I'm not suggesting we insource everything, >> right? >> You know, all the people arguing about, you know, manufacturing tennis shoes and toothpicks, I mean, you know, that's that's denigrating a perfectly good discussion into some insane level. You know, we we've got to um recognize that re-industrializ reindustrializing America is is just fundamentally going to be transform transformative number one. Number two, >> and aspirational.
## 01:34:13
**中文**
>> 哦，太棒了。 >> 埃隆带我们去火星，看着宇宙飞船被，你知道，呃筷子从天上抓起来。这不仅对美国的工业化基础来说是伟大的，也是>>太棒了。这是正确的。 >> 然后然后，呃，当然是人工智能。是的，>>这是最好的均衡器。想想现在每个人都可以拥有人工智能吧。最终的均衡器。我们已经弥合了技术鸿沟。还记得上次有人为了经济或职业利益而不得不学习想要使用计算机的情况吗？他们必须学习 C++ 或 C 或至少 Python。
**English / Original**
>> Oh, it's fantastic. >> Elon taking us to Mars, watching spaceships caught with, you know, uh chopsticks out of the sky. This is not only great for the industrializing base of America, it's aspirational for >> Fantastic. That's right. >> And then and then, uh, of course AI. Yeah, >> it is the greatest equalizer. Just think everybody can have an AI now. The the ultimate equalizer. We've closed the technology divide. Remember the last time that somebody had to learn has wants to use a computer uh for their economic um or career benefit. They have to learn C++ or C or at least Python.
## 01:34:53
**中文**
现在他们只需要学习人类，>>你知道。因此，如果你不知道如何对人工智能进行编程，你可以告诉人工智能，“嗨，我不知道如何对人工智能进行编程。我该如何对人工智能进行编程？”人工智能会向你解释>>或者为你做。 >> 它会为您做到这一点。所以，这太不可思议了，不是吗？我们现在已经用技术弥合了技术鸿沟。
**English / Original**
Now they just have to learn human, >> you know. And so, and if you don't know how to program an AI, you tell the AI, "Hi, I don't know how to program an AI. How do I program an AI?" And the AI explains it to you >> or does it for you. >> It does it for you. And so, it's incredible, isn't that right? It's And we've now closed the technology divide with technology.
## 01:35:11
**中文**
>> 是的。 >> 这是每个人都必须参与的事情。要知道，OpenAI拥有8亿活跃用户。嗯，天哪，真的需要 60 亿。 >> 是的。 >> 对。确实需要很快达到80亿。所以我认为这是第一位的。然后是第二，呃，然后是第三，你知道，我认为人工智能会改变任务。
**English / Original**
>> Yeah. >> This is something that every everybody's got to engage. You know, OpenAI has 800 million active users. Um gosh, it really really needs to be 6 billion. >> Yeah. >> Right. It really needs to be 8 billion soon. And so so I think that that that's number one. Then number two, uh and then number three, you know, I think the the um AI will change tasks.
## 01:35:34
**中文**
>> 是的。 >> 人们感到困惑的是，有很多任务将被取消。实际会创建很多任务。 >> 但对于许多人来说，他们的工作很可能受到有酬保护。正确的。 >> 例如，我一直在使用人工智能。你一直在使用人工智能。我的分析师一直在使用人工智能。
**English / Original**
>> Yeah. >> The thing that people confuse is there are many tasks that will be eliminated. There are many tasks that will actually be created. >> But it is very likely that for many people their jobs are gainfully protected. Right. >> And so, for example, I'm using AI all the time. You're using AI all the time. My analysts are using AI all the time.
## 01:35:57
**中文**
我的工程师们，他们每个人都在不断地使用人工智能。 >> 我们正在招聘更多工程师。我们正在雇用更多人。我们正在全面招聘。原因是我们有更多的想法。 >> 是的，>> 我们现在可以去追求更多的想法。原因是我们公司的生产力提高了。因为我们变得更有生产力，所以我们变得更加富有。我们变得更加富有，我们可以雇用更多的人来追求这些想法，>>对吗？
**English / Original**
My engineers, every one of them use AI continuously. >> And we're hiring more engineers. We're hiring more people. We're hiring across the board. The reason for that is because we have more ideas. >> Yes, >> we can now go pursue more ideas. The reason for that is because our company became more productive. And because we became more productive, we became more rich. We became more rich, we can hire more people to go after those ideas, >> right?
## 01:36:21
**中文**
我认为人工智能的出现，因此将会对工作岗位造成大规模破坏，这一概念始于我们没有更多想法的前提。 >> 对。 >> 首先的前提是我们无事可做。我们今天生活中所做的一切。 >> 是的。 >> 到这里就结束了。 >> 是的。
**English / Original**
The I the concept that that AI comes along and therefore there's going to be a mass destruction of jobs starts with the I starts with the premise that we have no more ideas. >> Right. >> It starts with the premise we have nothing left to do. Everything we're doing in our lives today. >> Yeah. >> This is the end. >> Yeah.
## 01:36:43
**中文**
>> 如果其他人为我完成一项任务，我就剩下一项任务。现在我必须坐在那里等待一些事情。 >> 是的。 >> 你知道，等退休，坐在我的摇椅上。这个想法对我来说没有意义。 >> 所以我认为智力不是零和游戏。我周围的聪明人越多，我周围的天才就越多，令人惊讶的是，我的想法就越多，我想象我们可以解决的问题就越多，>>我们创造的工作就越多，我们创造的就业机会就越多。所以我认为，对于我的孩子们来说，我不知道一百万年后的世界会是什么样子。嗯，但在接下来的几十年里，我的感觉是
**English / Original**
>> And if somebody else were to do that one task for me, I have one task left. Now I have to sit there and wait for something. >> Yes. >> You know, wait for retirement, sit on my rocking chair. That idea doesn't make sense to me. >> And so I think I think that intelligence is not a zero sum game. The more intelligent people I'm surrounded by, the more geniuses I'm surrounded by, surprisingly, the more ideas I have, the more problems I imagine that we can go solve, >> the more work we create, the more jobs we create. And so I think for for um I don't know what the world looks like in a million years that's going to be left for my my children. Um but for the next several decades, my sense is that
## 01:37:24
**中文**
经济将会增长。将创造大量新的就业机会。每一份工作都会改变。有些工作有些工作将会消失。嗯，呃，我们不会，你知道，在街上骑马之类的事情，那就没问题了。你知道，人类在理解复合系统方面是出了名的怀疑和糟糕，他们更不擅长理解随着规模而加速的指数系统。
**English / Original**
economy is going to grow. Lots of new jobs are going to be created. Every job will be changed. Some job some jobs will be lost. And um uh we're not going to be, you know, riding horses on streets and those things it'll be fine. You know, humans are are famously skeptical and terrible at understanding compounding systems and they're even worse at understanding exponential systems that accelerate with size.
## 01:37:54
**中文**
>> 今天我们已经讨论了很多指数。你知道，伟大的未来学家 Ray Kurzweil 在 21 世纪说过，我们不会有一百年的进步。我们可能会取得20,000年的进步。 >> 对。 >> 对。您之前说过，我们很幸运能够生活在此时此刻并为这一刻做出贡献。我不会要求你关注 10 年、20 年或 30 年，因为我认为这非常具有挑战性。但当我们考虑 2030 年的机器人等事物时，>> 30 年比 2030 年容易。
**English / Original**
>> We've talked about exponentials a lot today. You know, the great futurist Ray Kerszswhile said in the 21st century, we're not going to have a hundred years of progress. We're likely to have 20,000 years of progress. >> Right. >> Right. You said earlier, we're so fortunate to be living at this moment and contributing to this moment. I'm not going to ask you to look out 10 or 20 or 30 years because I think it's so challenging. But when we think about 2030 things like robots, >> 30 years is easier than 2030.
## 01:38:28
**中文**
>> 哦，真的吗？ >> 是的。是的。 >> 好的。所以，我会的，我会授予你出去的许可证 30. 当你思考的过程中，我喜欢这些更短的时间框架，因为它们必须将比特和原子结合在一起，比特和亚当斯是正确构建这个东西的困难部分，因为每个人都说这将会发生>>很有趣，但没有帮助>>确切地说，但是如果我们有20,000年的进步，请反思一下雷的声明，反思指数以及我们所有的听众如何无论你在政府工作还是在初创公司你知道经营一家大公司需要考虑变革的加速速度、增长的加速速度以及如何
**English / Original**
>> Oh, really? >> Yeah. Yeah. >> Okay. So, I'll get I I'll grant you license to go out 30. as you think out over the course of I like these shorter time frames because they have to marry bits and atoms bits and Adams the hard part of building this stuff right because everybody's saying it's going to happen >> is interesting but not helpful >> exactly but if we have 20,000 years of progress reflect on that statement by Ray reflect on exponentials and how all of our listeners whether you work in government whether you're in a startup whether you're you know running a big company need to be thinking about the accelerating rate of change, the accelerating rate of growth and how you
## 01:39:10
**中文**
你知道，在这个新世界中，我们将具有共同智能。嗯，有很多事情很多人已经说过了，嗯，他们都是非常明智的。我认为，嗯，在未来 5 年里，人工智能和机电一体化、机器人技术的融合将得到解决，这是一件非常酷的事情。
**English / Original**
will, you know, be co-intelligent in this new world. Well, there there are a lot of things that that that many people have already said and and um and they're all they're all very sensible. I think the the um uh in the next 5 years, one of the things that that is really cool that's going to get solved is the fusion of artificial intelligence and megatronics, robotics.
## 01:39:31
**中文**
因此，我们将拥有，你知道，AIS 将在我们周围徘徊。 >> 嗯，我们大家都知道，我们都知道我们将伴随着自己的 R2-D2 一起成长。 >> 是的。 >> R2-D2 会记住我们的一切并一路指导我们并成为我们的伴侣。我们已经知道了。
**English / Original**
And so we're going to have we're going to have, you know, AIS that are that are going to be wandering around us. >> And uh we all and that everybody knows uh we all all know that we're going to all grow up with our own R2-D2. >> Yeah. >> And that R2-D2 remember everything about us and coach us along the way and be our companion. We already know that.
## 01:39:52
**中文**
>> 好的。因此，每个人都会在云中拥有自己的 GPU，而且他们有 80 亿人，拥有 80 亿个 GPU，这是一个可行的结果。 >> 是的。你知道，所以>>并且每个人都有自己的模型，为他们进行了微调，>>为他们进行了微调。他们认为人工智能在云中也体现在你的汽车中。它体现在您自己的机器人中。
**English / Original**
>> Okay. and and so the idea and and and the idea that every human will have their own GPUs associated with them in the cloud um and that they're 8 billion people 8 billion GPUs that's a you know viable outcome. >> Yeah. you know, and so >> and each having their own model that's fine-tuned for them, >> fine-tuned for them. And they that that AI is in the cloud is also embodied in a whole bunch of it's embodied in your car. It's embodied in your own robot.
## 01:40:19
**中文**
它无处不在，与你同在。 >> 所以我认为这个未来是一件非常明智的事情。我们将了解生物学的无限复杂性，理解生物学系统，以及如何预测它，并拥有每个人的数字孪生，我们自己的医疗保健数字孪生，就像我们有一个用于在亚马逊购物的数字孪生，为什么我们不在医疗保健领域拥有我们的数字孪生，我们当然会，所以呃，你知道一个系统，可以预测我们将如何衰老，我们可能会患什么疾病，呃任何事情这可能甚至下周就会发生，或者你知道明天下午，
**English / Original**
It's everywhere with you. >> And so that I think that that future is a very sensible thing. the idea that uh we're we're going to understand the the infinite complexity of biology and understanding the system of biology uh and how it how how to predict it and have digital twins of every everybody um our own digital twin for health care like we have a digital twin for shopping at Amazon why wouldn't we have our digital twin at healthcare of course we would and so uh you know a dig a system that that predicts how our how we're going to age what disease will likely going to have and uh anything that's that's about to happen maybe even next week or you know tomorrow afternoon and
## 01:40:59
**中文**
及早预测。当然，我们将拥有这一切。所以我认为所有这些都是理所当然的。嗯，我认为与我共事的首席执行官经常问我这个问题，考虑到所有这些，会发生什么？你做什么工作？这是快速变化的事物的常识，>> 对吧？
**English / Original**
predict it early. Of course, we're going to have all that. And so I think all of that is a given. Um I think the the the the part that that I'm asked a lot by uh CEOs that I work with about now given all of that, what happens? What do you do? And this is this is the this is a common sense of of things that move fast, >> right?
## 01:41:24
**中文**
>> 如果你有一列火车，它的速度会越来越快，呈指数级增长，那么你真正需要做的唯一一件事就是登上它。 >> 是的。 >> 一旦你开始使用它，你就会一路解决其他所有问题。 >> 对。 >> 因此，要预测那列火车将在哪里，>> 对，>> 并尝试向它射击子弹。是的。
**English / Original**
>> If you if you have a if you have a train that's about to get faster and faster and go exponential, the only thing that you really need to do is get on it. >> Yeah. >> And once you get on it, you'll figure everything else out along the way. >> Right. >> And so to predict where that train's going to be, >> right, >> and try to shoot a bullet at it. Yeah.
## 01:41:45
**中文**
或者预测火车要去哪里，它每秒都会以指数级的速度加快，然后找出等待它的十字路口，>>对吗？ >> 那是不可能的。只要进展缓慢，>> 对吧？ >> 并一路呈指数增长。很多人认为这只是一夜之间发生的。你知道，你已经从事这行 35 年了。我记得大概在 2005 年或 2006 年左右，Larry Pageige 曾说过，Google 的最终状态将是，机器可以在你回答之前预测问题，甚至在你提出问题之前就给你答案，而不必看起来正确。我听到比尔盖茨在 2016 年说>>因为根据上下文你一定会问
**English / Original**
or predict where that train's going to be and it's going exponentially faster every second and go figure out what intersection to wait for it, >> right? >> That's impossible. Just get on it while it's going kind of slowly, >> right? >> And go exponential along the way. A lot of people think this just happened overnight. You know, you've been you've been at this for 35 years. I remember hearing Larry Pageige say probably around 2005 or 2006 that the end state of Google will be when the machine can predict uh the question before you even answer it before you even ask it and give you the answer without having to look right. I heard Bill Gates say in 2016 >> because contextually you must be asking
## 01:42:26
**中文**
你一定想知道这一点。
**English / Original**
about you must be wondering about that.
## 01:42:28
**中文**
>> 我听到比尔·盖茨在 2016 年说，当时有人说所有的事情还没有完成，我们已经有了互联网、有了云、有了移动社交等。他说，“我们甚至还没有开始。”他说：“你觉得怎么样？为什么这么说？”他说：“我们甚至不会开始，直到机器从愚蠢的计算器开始独立思考，与我们一起思考，>>对吗？”嗯，这就是我们现在所处的时刻。我认为拥有像你这样的领导人，像 Sam 和 Elon、Satya 等领导人，这对这个国家来说是一个非凡的优势，对吧？以及我们所看到的风险资本体系之间的合作，我所采取的，你知道，我是其中的一部分，可以提供
**English / Original**
>> I heard Bill Gates say in 2016 when somebody said hasn't all the things been done we've had the internet we've had cloud we've had mobile social etc. He said, "We haven't even started." He said, "What do you think? Why would you say that?" He said, "We won't even begin until machines go from being dumb calculators to beginning to think for themselves, to think with us, >> right?" Um, kind of that is the moment, >> right, that we're in. I think to have leaders like you, leaders like Sam and Elon, Satcha, etc., it's such an extraordinary advantage for this country, right? and to have the cooperation that we see between a system of risk capital that I take, you know, that I'm part of which can provide the
## 01:43:11
**中文**
风险资本适合人们做。我们不这样做，我们不依赖政府进行曼哈顿项目。实际上，我们可以自己并共同做到这一点，以造福国家。这是一个非凡的时刻>>，其规模是难以想象的。 >> 对。正确的。这是一个非凡的时刻。但我也认为，我很感激的一件事是，我们的领导者也了解他们对我们正在加速创造变革这一事实的责任。我们知道，虽然这对绝大多数人来说很可能是件好事，但一路上也会遇到挑战。
**English / Original**
risk capital for people to do. We don't we're not relying on government having a Manhattan project. We can actually do this ourselves and together for the benefit of the country. It's an extraordinary time >> and at a scale that's unimaginable. >> Right. Right. It's an extraordinary time. But I also think, you know, one of the things that I'm just grateful is that we have leaders who also understand their responsibility to the fact that we are creating change at an accelerating rate. And we know while it will most likely be great for the vast majority, there'll be challenges along the way.
## 01:43:43
**中文**
我们将在这些问题到来时予以处理>>并为每个人提高发言权，并确保这是一场胜利，而不仅仅是对一些在硅谷闲逛的高层精英官僚而言。 >> 不要吓到他们。带他们一起来。别吓到他们。带他们一起来。 >> 我们会的。 >> 是的。 >> 所以，谢谢你。
**English / Original**
And we'll deal with those as they come >> and raise the floor for everybody and make sure that this is an a win, not just for some elite bureaucrats at the top hanging out in Silicon Valley. >> And don't scare them. Bring them along. Don't scare them. Bring them along. >> And we will. >> Yeah. >> So, thank you for that.
## 01:44:00
**中文**
>> 正是如此。 [音乐][鼓掌]提醒大家，只是我们的意见，不构成投资建议。
**English / Original**
>> Exactly. [Music] [Applause] As a reminder to everybody, just our opinions, not investment advice.