# (77) Inside the Mind of Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei | The Circuit | Extended Interview - YouTube
- Transcript ID: `x2vhfgyawpe`
- Source tier: `youtube_creator`
- Original language: `en_or_source_language_unlabeled`
- Translation status: `agent_translated_reviewed` (190/190 chunks)
- Original source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x2VHFgyawPE
- Raw evidence: `data/transcripts/youtube/x2VHFgyawPE.json`
> 中文是派生翻译，英文是留存的源文本。中文未复核时，以英文和原始音视频为准。
## 00:00:07
**中文**
你每天睡多久？我从来就不是一个睡很多的人。这样说吧：面对非同寻常的压力，我正在学习如何让自己放松下来、睡得着。一切发展得太快了，身处其中是什么感觉？就像置身于指数增长：假设你乘坐飞船，以接近光速不断加速远离地球。
**English / Original**
How much are you sleeping? You know, I've never been someone who slept all that. Well, let's just say I'm, you know, I'm, I'm learning the art of, of, you know, finding ways to relax and sleep through, through moments of unusual pressure. It is all moving so fast. How does it feel on the inside? It's this feeling of like the exponential, like, you know, suppose you were to accelerate away from earth on a spaceship at relativistic speed.
## 00:00:33
**中文**
按照狭义相对论，你睡一觉醒来，地球上已经过去两天，于是你得在一天里处理两天的事情。然后再睡一觉；由于飞船仍在加速，地球上过去了三天；再下一次醒来，便过去了四天。
**English / Original**
The way special relativity works is, you know, you go, you go to sleep and you wake up in two days have gone by on earth. And so you have to deal with two days in one day. And then you go to sleep. And then because you've continued to accelerate, three days have gone by on earth, and then the next day and four days have gone by.
## 00:00:48
**中文**
感受大概就是这样。你会不会每天入睡时都惶恐不安，担心醒来后世界又变成什么样？眼前已经有足够多明确而迫切的问题需要处理；我一边持续应对它们，一边思考如何为未来做准备。但我认为，偏执地担忧醒来后会发生什么并没有帮助。
**English / Original**
And that's a little bit what it feels like. I mean, do you go to bed constantly paranoid about what you'll wake up to? There are enough clear and present issues that we have to deal with that I'm, I'm constantly dealing with those, while thinking about how we can prepare. But, but you know, I, you know, I, I don't think paranoia or worrying about what you'll wake up to is productive.
## 00:01:06
**中文**
我观察过历史上那些应对过极高压局面的人。你必须学会理性回应，不要错估不同危险之间的相对程度。在“我一点也不担心”和“天哪，我们今天就得恐慌”之间来回摇摆，是不成熟决策的标志。真正成熟的决策是：我们不能忽视它。
**English / Original**
You know, I've looked at people in history who've, you know, who've dealt with these very high pressure situations and, you know, you need to learn to respond rationally and, and not put dangers out of proportion to each other. This yo-yoing between, I'm not worried and oh my God, we need to panic today. I, I I, I, I think that's a hallmark of immature decision making. And the actual mature decision making is we can't ignore this.
## 00:01:28
**中文**
我们不能自满。事实上，它的风险正变得越来越大。但是，你知道，我们必须理性回应。你知道，就像外科医生会处理手术，或者，你知道，就像军官会处理军事行动，或者，你知道，做出影响很多人的决定的人必须理性地做出这些决定，他们必须了解风险，但是他们，他们，你知道，他们必须保持基本的冷静。
**English / Original**
We can't be complacent. In fact, it's getting to be a bigger and bigger risk. But, you know, we, we have to respond rationally. You know, like a, like a surgeon would deal with an operation or, you know, like a military officer would, you know, deal with a military operation or, you know, someone making decisions that affect a lot of people has to make those decisions rationally and they have to understand the risk, but they, they, you know, they have to maintain a basic sense of calm.
## 00:01:56
**中文**
昨天我儿子问：“我能用你的 Claude Cowork 账号吗？”我说：“绝对不行，我还得用自己的 token 额度。”这种需求越来越多，甚至来自消费端。我们原本更想做一家企业服务公司，但即便投入不多，消费业务也开始迅速增长。
**English / Original**
So my son yesterday was like, can I use your Claude Cowork account? And I was like, absolutely not. I need my tokens. We're seeing more and more of them, even in the consumer space. We wanted to be more of an enterprise company. But, you know, it's even, even even consumer without us putting that much effort is starting to go fast.
## 00:02:15
**中文**
您现在正处于人工智能宇宙的中心。那感觉怎么样？有趣的是，我在整个职业生涯以及在 Anthropic 的整个时间里所经历的经历就是这种平滑的指数，而平滑的指数就是，什么都没有发生，什么都没有发生，什么都没有发生。
**English / Original**
You are at the center of the AI universe right now. What does that feel like? The interesting thing is, is that the experience I've had for my whole career and certainly the whole time at Anthropic is that there's this kind of smooth exponential and the experience, the smooth exponential is, nothing's happening, nothing's happening, nothing's happening.
## 00:02:36
**中文**
发生一些小事情，然后放大，就会变得疯狂。这就是世界的经验。这就是公司规模与其他公司相比、与世界相比的经验。所以，你知道，我看了这个图表一段时间，我说，哦，是的，我们可能会在这个时候的某个时候成为收入和估值最高的人工智能公司。
**English / Original**
A little things happen and then zoom, it goes crazy. That's the experience of the world. That's the experience of the scale of the company compared to the other companies and compared to the world. So, you know, I was watching this graph for a while and I said, oh yeah, we'll probably become the AI company with, you know, the, the most revenue and the most valuation some sometime around this time.
## 00:02:57
**中文**
事实上，这确实发生了。所以从某种意义上说，我并不感到惊讶，因为图表上只有一条平滑的线。但当然，从另一种意义上来说，当事情真正发生时，你会看到更多，你知道，它的细节和色彩，你知道，这绝对是令人惊讶的。我们要记住的，我们通常要记住的所有事情，就是，你知道，我们如何训练好的模型？
**English / Original**
And, and indeed, indeed it has happened. So in one sense, I'm not surprised 'cause there's just a smooth line on the graph. But of course in another sense, when things actually happen, you just, you see so much more, you know, detail and color to it and it, you know, it definitely is surprising. And what we're just keeping in mind, all the things we usually keep in mind, which are, which are just, you know, how do we train good models?
## 00:03:21
**中文**
我们如何将它们融入到好的产品中？我们如何确保一切安全？我们如何帮助人们，同时管理与技术相关的社会风险？都是同样的问题，只是在更大的显微镜下。您小时候在旧金山长大是什么样的？我知道你，你的父亲是一位皮革工匠。
**English / Original**
How do we put them in good products? How do we make sure that everything's safe? How do we help people but also manage the societal risks around the technology? It's, it's all the same questions, just kind of under a bigger, under a bigger microscope as it were. What were you like as a kid growing up in San Francisco? I know your, your dad was a leather craftsman.
## 00:03:38
**中文**
你妈妈在图书馆工作。这对你有何影响？你知道，整个，你知道，就像首先，你知道，互联网革命正在我周围发生，而我对此完全不感兴趣。我只是对做数学感兴趣，比如写东西，你知道，我感兴趣的是，比如理解宇宙。
**English / Original**
Your mom worked in libraries. How did that shape you? You know, the whole, you know, like first, you know, internet revolution was happening around me and I had absolutely no interest in it. I was just interested in like, doing math and like scra, you know, scrawling things, I was interested in, like understanding the universe.
## 00:03:55
**中文**
我对科幻小说很感兴趣。就像那样，那是一种，你知道，那是，那是一般，那是一般环境。我，我想我只是对这个世界充满了好奇。你在那个小镇长大，那里是技术中心，现在是人工智能中心，你知道吗？
**English / Original**
I was interested in science fiction. Like that was, that was kind of the, you know, that was the, that was the general, that was the general milieu. I, I think I just felt a lot of curiosity about the world. You grew up in the town where, you know, that is the center of technology and right now it's the center of AI you know?
## 00:04:11
**中文**
这个地方、这座城市有什么东西影响了你的世界观吗？是的，我的意思是，我认为一般的，你知道的，一般的精神，你知道，不墨守成规和个人主义，疯狂是可以的。我认为，我认为其中很多可能对我产生了影响。
**English / Original**
Is there anything about this place, this city here that informed your worldview? Yeah, I mean, I think the general, you know, the general spirit of kind of, you know, nonconformism and individualism and it's okay to be crazy. I think, I think a good deal of that probably did, probably did probably did rub off against me.
## 00:04:30
**中文**
你会听到这样的故事：在欧洲一些国家、甚至美国其他地方，以不同方式思考或抱有一组看似疯狂的想法，会受到压制或被视为怪异。我其实对硅谷有许多批评，但它至少允许这种不一样的思考。
**English / Original**
You know, you hear these stories about, you know, you go to countries in Europe or you know, even other parts of this country where it's, it's just, you know, it's just kind of discouraged or considered weird to like, think about things in some different way, right? Or have some set of, of some set of crazy ideas. And, you know, there's a lot of things I'm actually very critical about with, with Silicon Valley.
## 00:04:50
**中文**
但我认为硅谷有一点很好：它鼓励人们相信，即使所有专家都反对你也没关系；只要你拥有连贯的愿景和世界观，就应该去追求。它也许完全行不通，但这种探索具有长尾特征：你沿着某些矿脉寻找，可能会发现一座巨大的金矿。
**English / Original**
But one thing that I think is good about it is this, this encouragement of like, you know, it doesn't matter if all the experts are against you, it doesn't matter, you know, if you have a coherent vision and a coherent world view of the world, you should go and pursue it. Maybe it just won't work at all. But, but if it does, there's this kind of long tailed ness to it where, you know, there are certain places you can, you know, you can, you can search certain veins of war where, you know, you might, you might find a huge goldmine there.
## 00:05:16
**中文**
我认为这种精神非常重要。你，丹妮拉，你的妹妹和她的丈夫霍尔顿·卡诺夫斯基早在 2016 年就住在一套集体住宅里。当时你们在争论什么？我认为那时，你知道，开放慈善项目第一次启动，霍顿是该项目的领导者。那时我就像一名生物科学家。
**English / Original**
I think that spirit is very important. You, Daniela, your sister and her husband, Holden Karnofsky lived in a group house together back in 2016. What were you debating back then? That was, I think the time when, you know, Open Philanthropy project was, was, you know, first being startup, which Holden was the lead of. And I was at that time, you know, like a, a biological scientist.
## 00:05:37
**中文**
所以，你知道，我正在帮助他们做一些围绕发展中国家健康或生物研究所做的事情。所以，你知道，我对这些事情提出了建议，你知道，哪些领域是有前途的？哪些领域前景不太乐观 您离开 Open AI 的决定已成为硅谷的传奇。
**English / Original**
So, you know, I was helping them with some of the stuff they were doing around kind of developing world health or biological research. So, you know, I I kind of advised on that stuff and, you know, what were the areas that were promising? What were the areas that were less promising Your decision to leave Open AI has become Silicon Valley lore.
## 00:05:54
**中文**
究竟发生了什么？除了叙述之外，还有哪些问题？你对什么有不同意见？听着，我会，我会说，我会说得非常简单。你知道，当你构建 Anthropic 每天面临的强大技术时，你会面临许多困难的问题，我们不知道我们是否做出了正确的决定或错误的决定。
**English / Original**
What really happened? Like, beyond the narrative, what were the issues? What did you disagree on? Look, I'll, I'm gonna say it, I'm gonna say it very simply. You know, there are many difficult issues that you know, you face when you're building powerful technology that Anthropic faces every day where we don't know whether we're making the right decision or the wrong decision.
## 00:06:18
**中文**
所以，你知道，在安全方面存在许多有效的分歧。我们当然与他们存在一些分歧，但是，你知道，人们认为，仅凭这一点还不足以离开。这里的人们与我有分歧，这里的人们彼此之间也有分歧。但是，当你觉得你不能信任某人时，当你觉得他们的价值观不是他们所说的那样时，当你觉得他们不诚实时，当你觉得他们不是因为他们所说的原因而参与其中时，当你看到令人不安的不诚实行为模式时，你知道，这会让你很难继续与一家公司合作，继续信任这家公司。
**English / Original**
So, you know, there are many valid disagreements to be had on safety. We certainly had some of those disagreements with them, but, you know, people that, that, that, that alone is not sufficient to leave. People here have had disagreements with me, people here have disagreements with each other. But when you feel that you can't trust someone, when you feel that their values are not what they say they are, when you feel that they're not honest, when you feel that they're not in it for the reasons that they say, when you see disturbing patterns of behavior dishonesty, that makes it very hard to, you know, to continue to work with a company, to continue to trust the company.
## 00:07:00
**中文**
看看，归根结底，当你没有相同的愿景并且你不信任某人时，为什么要与他们争论呢？就像解决问题的方法就是你去做你的事情。他们走开去做他们的事情。我完全同意我们按照我们的方式做事，他们也按照他们的方式做事。
**English / Original**
And look, at the end of the day, why argue with someone when you don't have the same vision and you don't trust them. Like the way the the way to resolve it is you go off and do your thing. They go off and do their thing. And I am completely at peace with the idea that we're doing things our way and they're doing things their way.
## 00:07:21
**中文**
我们将看看谁在市场上获胜，我们将看看谁在舆论场上获胜。我认为这些事情比任何戏剧都更能说明为什么，谁离开，什么，你知道，我们正在提供一个如何部署这项技术的例子，你知道，以我们认为负责任的方式。如果他们不同意，他们应该提出论点。
**English / Original**
We'll see who wins in the market and we'll see who wins in the court of public opinion. I think those things speak louder than any drama about why, who left, what, you know, we're, we're providing an example of how to deploy this technology, you know, in what we think is a responsible way. If they disagree, they should make that argument.
## 00:07:41
**中文**
我认为就只有这些可说的了。在印度 AI 峰会上，你和 Sam Altman 似乎拒绝在台上牵手，当时发生了什么？峰会组织得非常混乱。我们最后一刻才被叫上台，站位顺序又临时改变；他们先拍照，随后突然让所有人牵手。
**English / Original**
And you know that, I think that's really all there is to say about it. There was a moment at India's AI summit where you and Sam Altman appeared to refuse to hold hands on stage. What happened there? What happened is that the summit was extremely disorganized. We all came up at the last minute and they like changed the order in which we were standing, and then like, they took a picture of us and then they ordered us all to like, hold hands.
## 00:08:05
**中文**
你知道，如果你曾经参加过其中一场峰会，我并不是特别说印度的坏话，但就像所有这些有国家元首参加的国际类型峰会一样，组织非常混乱。好的？但其他人都握着手。快点。我，我看，我不知道，我不知道该告诉你什么。
**English / Original**
You know, if you've ever been to one of these summit, I am not saying anything bad about India in particular, but like all of these kind of international type summits that have like heads of state are like super disorganized. Okay? But everyone else held hands. Come on. I, I look, I don't know, I don't know what to tell you.
## 00:08:21
**中文**
好的。就像，你知道的，纳伦德拉·莫迪突然告诉大家，就像突然告诉大家要手牵着手。好吧，好吧，好吧，看，萨姆和埃隆正在互相起诉。你不喜欢萨姆。我，看来如果创造世界上最重要技术的人们不能在舞台上手拉手，我们怎么能相信你们会在存在风险方面进行合作呢？
**English / Original**
Okay. There was like, you know, Narendra Modi up there suddenly telling everyone to, like suddenly telling everyone to hold hands. All right, all right, well, okay, look, Sam and Elon are suing each other. You don't like Sam. I, it seems if the people building the most important technology in the world can't hold hands on stage, how can we trust you'll cooperate on existential risk?
## 00:08:44
**中文**
我要说的是，开发这项技术的人在能力与可信度上差异很大。“大家互不信任”这种流行说法并不准确。我认识负责 Gemini 模型的 Demis Hassabis；Gemini 是 Claude 的竞争对手。
**English / Original**
So here's, here's what I will tell you. There is a wide variance in the quality and the trustworthiness of the people building this technology. I think this meme that, you know, different, that no one trusts each other, I don't think it's right. You know, I've known Demis Hassabis who builds the Gemini models. They're a competitor to Claude models.
## 00:09:02
**中文**
我认识 Demis 已有 15 年，我们在许多问题上合作。Anthropic 从 Google 购买算力，双方也一直交流安全思路。因此我的看法是：有些行业参与者比另一些更可信，而 Anthropic 之外也有我信任、认为值得信赖的人。
**English / Original**
I've known him for 15 years. We've worked together on like, you know, a number of issues. We buy compute from Google, we swap safety ideas all the time. So, you know, my my view of this is that one, there are some players who are more trustworthy than others. And you know, I think there are players outside Anthropic who, you know, who, who I trust, who I see as trustworthy.
## 00:09:27
**中文**
我认为需要发生的是，值得信赖的参与者需要聚集在一起，并将不值得信任的参与者置于必须采用相同标准的位置。凭借丰富的经验，我了解到有些人自己没有做正确的事情，但如果行业中的大多数人都在做正确的事情，那么我认为行业的其余部分是，是的，他们被留在了一个位置，他们无法做太多的事情，然后随之而来。
**English / Original**
What I think needs to happen is that the trustworthy actors need to need to get together and, and put the untrustworthy actors in a position where they kind of have to adopt the same standards. With a lot of experience, I've learned that there are some folks who don't do the right thing on their own, but if there's a majority of the industry that's doing the right thing, then I think the rest of the industry is, is kind of, they're left in a position where there's not much they can do that, that, that then come along.
## 00:09:54
**中文**
这就像它的积极版本，你激励其他人，就像黛米斯和我互相激励一样。你知道，他做了 Alpha Fold。我们也在尝试在生物领域做一些事情，对吗？我们进行可解释性研究，他们也开始进行可解释性研究。这甚至不是竞争，这只是，你知道，每家公司都做了一些很酷的事情，而另一家公司则认为，这很酷。
**English / Original**
There's like the positive version of it where you inspire other people, that's like Demis and me inspiring each other. You know, he does Alpha Fold. We're trying to do something in bio as well, right? We do interpretability research, they start an interpretability research. It's not even competition, it's just, it's just, you know, each company does something cool and the other company's like, that's cool.
## 00:10:12
**中文**
你知道，我们也想这样做，看看我们是否可以做一些新的事情。所以这就是，你知道的，通往巅峰的竞赛的胡萝卜面。然后是坚持的一面或隐含的坚持，你会想，好吧，这些人正在做正确的事情。如果这些人不做正确的事，他们的形象就会很糟糕。
**English / Original**
We'd like to, you know, do that too and see if there's something new within that we can do. So that's the kind of, you know, the carrot side of the race to the top. Then there's the stick side or the implicit stick where you're like, okay, these guys are doing the right thing. Those guys will look bad if they don't do the right thing.
## 00:10:27
**中文**
我们经常看到他们不情愿地做正确的事情，同时又试图假装自己在做不同的事情。我们身上有一些不好或险恶的东西，这是可以预料的。但我认为这就是我们让整个行业团结起来的方式，也是我们让行业合作的方式。现在，其他人很早就专注于有趣、引人注目的消费者应用程序。
**English / Original**
And often we see behaviors where they kind of grudgingly do the right thing while trying to pretend they're doing something different. And there's something bad or sinister about us that is to be expected. But I think that's the way we get the industry together, and that's the way we get the industry to cooperate. Now, early on, others focused on fun, splashy consumer apps.
## 00:10:45
**中文**
您在编码和企业上下了赌注，Claude代码很受欢迎。Claude·科沃克很受欢迎。你为什么打这个赌？这是价值观决定还是商业决定？当我们开始 Anthropic 时，最重要的、最重要的、永远重要的事情是我们想要、我们想要这样做，对吧？但你必须问自己，好吧，为了资助非常昂贵的，你知道的，创建这些模型，它需要是一家公司，它需要有一个商业模式。
**English / Original**
You made a bet on coding and enterprise and Claude Code is a hit. Claude Cowork is a hit. Why did you make that bet? Was it a values decision or a business decision? When we started Anthropic, the thing that the, the base thing that mattered, the thing that always matters is we wanna, we want to do this, right? But then you have to ask yourself, okay, in order to fund the very expensive, you know, creation of these models, it, it needs to be a company, it needs to have a business model.
## 00:11:12
**中文**
商业模式是否妨碍了价值观？总是有这个问题，但我认为我学到的一件事是，你知道，只是从其他公司和观察其他公司来看，如果你选择一种与你的价值观从根本上冲突的商业模式，你会遇到困难，对吗？
**English / Original**
Does the business model get in the way of the values? There's always this question, but I think one of the things I learned is, you know, just from being at other companies and watching other companies is, look, if you pick a business model that fundamentally conflicts with your values, you're gonna have a hard time, right?
## 00:11:29
**中文**
要么背叛自己的价值观，要么变得无关紧要。你知道，你最终会陷入第22条军规的境地。还有出路，有躲避的方法，但这只是，这只是一个艰难的处境。最好选择与您的价值观兼容的商业模式。所以当我们思考这个问题时，我们说，看，你知道，我们已经看到了社交媒体的世界，消费者的世界，它，它似乎真的，你知道，鼓励参与，甚至上瘾，你知道，我们在人工智能视频模型中看到的溢出，就像，发生了什么事？
**English / Original**
Either you betray your own values or you become irrelevant. You know, you kind of end up in a catch 22 situation. And there are ways out, there are ways to dodge, but it's just, it's just a hard situation. It's far better to pick a business model that is compatible with your values. And so when we thought about it, we said, look, you know, we've seen the world of social media, the consumer world, it, it really seems to, you know, encourage engagement, even addiction, you know, the slop we've seen with AI video models, it's like, what's going on?
## 00:12:01
**中文**
它希望最大化您关注的分钟数，因为这是广告收入驱动的激励措施。而如果我们看看企业，我的意思是，我们想让这些模型对人们有用。如果我想到人工智能可以做的所有积极的事情，对吧？我对消极的事情提出了很多警告，但最终我们认为积极的事情将超过消极的事情。
**English / Original**
It wants to maximize the number of minutes that you're, you're paying attention to, because that's the advertising revenue driven incentive. Whereas if we look at enterprise, look, I mean, you know, we want to make these models useful to people. If I think of all the positive things you can do with AI, right? I warn a lot about the negative things, but ultimately we think the positive things will outweigh the negative things.
## 00:12:24
**中文**
其中许多基本上都打着企业的旗号。你知道，我们想用人工智能来治愈我们以前无法治愈的疾病，对吧？嗯，那就是与生物技术合作，与制药公司合作，与学术研究小组合作。这些都是企业吧？我们希望利用人工智能来让能源变得更便宜、更高效。
**English / Original**
Many of those are basically fall under the banner of enterprise. You know, we want to use AI to, you know, cure diseases that we couldn't cure before, right? Well, that's working with biotech, it's working with pharma, it's working with academic research groups. All of those are enterprises, right? We want to use AI to like, you know, to make energy cheaper and more efficient.
## 00:12:46
**中文**
也就是说，这就是企业。你知道，我们希望利用人工智能来帮助教育。其中大部分是企业。你知道，我们希望利用人工智能来解决健康问题和发展中国家的问题。嗯，有非营利组织。但这些基本上都是企业。我们希望促进经济增长。这基本上也是企业。
**English / Original**
That's, that's all enterprise. You know, we want to use AI to help with education. Most of that is enterprise. You know, we want to use AI to, you know, to address, you know, health and developing world. Well there are nonprofits. But those are basically enterprises. We want to increase economic growth. That that is basically enterprise as well.
## 00:13:04
**中文**
然后我认为还有一个因素，那就是企业非常关心长期关系中的信任，对吧？消费者可以拥有这个，你知道，几乎是这个花哨的方面，对吗？对于企业来说，重要的是你建立了一种关系，你知道，你与一家公司合作多年，你知道，你兑现了你所说的，他们兑现了他们所说的，他们基本上信任你。
**English / Original**
And then I think there's another factor, which is that enterprises care a lot about trust in long-term relationship, right? Consumer can have this, you know, almost this gimmicky aspect to it, right? Where with enterprise, it's like, what matters is you build a relationship where, you know, you work with, you work with a company for many years, you know, you deliver on what you say they deliver on what they say, and they basically trust you.
## 00:13:26
**中文**
因此，这与我们的目标非常协同，即以积极且安全的方式部署这些模型。因此，我认为这种在很大程度上符合我们价值观的商业模式对我们很有好处。并不是说有时不会发生冲突。并不是说我们不需要做出艰难的选择，但我认为此类选择的数量比其他情况下要少得多。
**English / Original**
And so it's very synergistic with our goal of, you know, deploying these models in a positive and safe way. And so I think it serves us well to have this business model that largely aligns with our values. Not that there aren't conflicts sometimes. Not that there aren't hard choices we have to make, but I think the number of such choices, it's much lower than it would be otherwise.
## 00:13:47
**中文**
开发人员可以在一个下午从 Claude 切换到 ChatGPT 或 Gemini。真的有可能在这个行业长期领先吗？而且，您知道，一个真正的竞争对手需要多长时间才能复制您所构建的产品？模型质量是最重要的。就像我们一样，我们目前在模型质量方面遥遥领先。
**English / Original**
A developer can switch from Claude to ChatGPT or Gemini in an afternoon. Is it really possible to have a long-term lead in this industry? And, you know, how long would it take a serious competitor to replicate what you've built? Model quality is the most important thing. Like we're, we're very far ahead right now on model quality.
## 00:14:07
**中文**
市场确实存在一定惯性，但我从未依赖它，Anthropic 也从未指望产品具有黏性、用户不会切换。你必须持续提供更好的模型和产品。我们看到增长率丝毫没有下弯。
**English / Original**
There is some amount of inertia, but I've never relied on that, right? I've never relied on like the, you know, the, Anthropic has never relied on like, oh, this is sticky and people won't switch. I think you wanna have a better model. You want to have a better product. And you know, we, we see the growth rates haven't inflected at all.
## 00:14:23
**中文**
如果说有什么不同的话，那就是至少在录制这次采访时，他们的股价有所上涨。所以，你知道，我认为我、我倾向于认为这是最重要的事情。 Claude Cowork 发布后不久，2850 亿美元的市值一夜之间消失殆尽，交易员称其为 SaaS 末日。如果人工智能继续以这种速度进步，有多少传统软件会被取代，取代的速度有多快？
**English / Original**
If anything, they've gone up at least, at least at the time of taping this interview. So, you know, I think I, I I tend to think that is the most important thing. Soon after Claude Cowork was released, $285 billion in market value vanished overnight, traders called it the SaaSpocalypse. If AI continues improving at this pace, how much of traditional software gets replaced and how fast?
## 00:14:48
**中文**
是的。所以，你知道，这是这些问题之一，很难提前预测，对吧？如果你能提前完美预测，那么人们就会这么做，他们会在市场上赚到巨额钱，而且他们总是对的。所以，你知道，没有人、没有人确切知道会发生什么。
**English / Original**
Yeah. So, you know, this is, this is one of these questions, it's kind of very hard to predict in advance, right? If you could predict it perfectly in advance, then people would, and they'd make a huge amount of money on the market and they'd always be right. So, you know, no one, no one knows exactly what's going to happen.
## 00:15:03
**中文**
但我会注意一些事情，对吗？所有这些传统软件公司都有许多护城河。我认为将会发生的事情是，其中一些护城河将会消失，但其他护城河将会继续存在，对吗？快速编写软件的能力，我，我肯定认为这种能力正在消失，对吗？如果，如果你的护城河是，我们编写了这个其他人无法编写的复杂软件，就像祝你好运一样，你将无法捍卫它。
**English / Original**
But I would note a few things, right? All of these traditional software companies have a number of moats. I think what's gonna happen is some of these moats are gonna go away, but others are going to stay around, right? The ability to quickly write software, I, I definitely think that's going away, right? If, if your moat is, we wrote this complex software that no one else can write, like good luck, you're not gonna be able to defend that.
## 00:15:25
**中文**
但我认为人们有客户关系。人们已经知道这个领域是如何运作的。人们拥有独特的领域知识。所以我认为我对所有这些人的建议显然是，不要自满，不要忽视它。列出你所有的护城河，并清楚地意识到其中一些将会消失，而另一些则将变得相对更加重要。
**English / Original**
But I think folks have customer relationships. Folks have know how of how, you know, of how the field works. Folks have unique domain knowledge. So I think my advice to all of these folks is, obviously, you know, don't be complacent, don't ignore it. Make a list of all your moats and be very aware that some of them are going to go away, while others are going to become relatively more important.
## 00:15:52
**中文**
因为有限制因素，也可能有，也可能有新的护城河。我认为那些巧妙回应的人，你知道，倾向于现有的护城河清单以及新的护城河清单，将会做得很好。我认为那些自满的人，你知道的，只是自欺欺人地认为过去有效的方法将继续有效。
**English / Original**
Because there are limiting factors and there may also, there may also be new moats. And I think those that deftly respond, that, you know, lean into the list of moats that are still present as well as the new ones will do well. I think those that are complacent, that kind of, you know, just delude themselves at what worked in the past will, will continue to work.
## 00:16:12
**中文**
他们，他们不会有好日子的。这就是我要给出的建议。你知道，我，我，我想最终，我猜，我的意思是，这取决于你所谓的 SaaS 和你不称之为 SaaS 的东西，但是，我猜软件行业会变得更大，而不是更小。虽然有，但也会有一些大输家。
**English / Original**
They're, they're not gonna have a good time. So that is, that is the advice I would give. And you know, I I, I, I think at the end of the day, I would guess, I mean, it depends what you call SaaS and what you don't call SaaS, but like, I would guess that the software industry gets larger, not smaller. Although there, there will be some big losers.
## 00:16:29
**中文**
解释一下。我只是觉得蛋糕越来越大了，对吗？就像，我认为，对于人工智能，就像蛋糕越来越大一样，现有的现有企业相对而言可能会更小。如果不以正确的方式适应，其中一些可能会贬值，有些甚至可能会倒闭。但我，我，我，你知道，我认为你，我认为当增长非常快时你经常看到这种情况，对吧？
**English / Original**
Explain that. I just think the pie is getting bigger, right? Like, I think, I think with ai, like the pie is getting bigger, the existing incumbents may be smaller in relative terms. Some of them may, may go down in value, some of them may even may even go out of business if they don't adapt in the right way. But I, I, I, you know, I think you, I think you see this often when growth is really fast, right?
## 00:16:51
**中文**
如果，你知道，如果人工智能的可能性增长 10 倍，那么现有的现有行业很容易增长 1.5 倍，对吗？只是，只是，你知道，没有整个大蛋糕增长得那么多。所以我认为这种情况可能会发生，但这并不是说我们不会出现如此大的输家。我认为那些不适应的人，那些把头埋在沙子里的人，那些看不到即将发生的事情的人，那些不认识自己拥有的护城河的人，他们将会度过一段非常艰难的时光。
**English / Original**
If the, you know, if the, if, if, if what's possible with AI grows by 10x, it's very easy for an existing incumbent industry to go up by 1.5x, right? Just, just, you know, not as much as the whole big pie is growing. So I think that may happen that that's not to say we won't have such some big losers. I think those who don't adapt, who put their heads in the sand, who don't kind of see what's coming, who don't identify the moats they have, they're gonna have a really hard time.
## 00:17:18
**中文**
你最大的支持者包括 Amazon、Google、Microsoft 和 Nvidia，它们都有自己的目标，既是合作伙伴也是竞争者。你们的融资还绑定了重大商业里程碑，究竟是谁在掌舵？我们多次公开表达自己的真实观点。例如，我一直直言不讳地支持限制向中国出口先进芯片。
**English / Original**
Your biggest backers are companies like Amazon and Google and Microsoft and Nvidia. These are companies that all have their own agendas. They are partners in rivals. You have huge commercial milestones tied to funding, who's really calling the shots. There have been a number of cases where we've really spoken our minds about what we think, you know, I've been very outspoken about the need for export controls on ships to China, right?
## 00:17:45
**中文**
我，我，我这么说是因为我认为，如果中国在人工智能能力方面处于领先地位，这对美国、对世界民主国家都非常不利。而且，你知道，有些芯片制造商显然不同意这种观点，但这并没有阻止我这么说。我现在再说一遍，即使我们签署了更多合作伙伴关系，他们也知道我们始终与他们合作。
**English / Original**
I, i, I say this because I think it would be really bad for America, for, you know, the state of democracy in the world for, you know, China to be ahead in AI capabilities. And, you know, it's, it's like some of the chip makers obviously don't agree with that view, but it hasn't stopped me from saying it. I'm saying it again now, even after we've signed more partnerships, what they know is that we always work with them.
## 00:18:09
**中文**
我们一直是很好的合作伙伴，你知道，我们可以一起工作。我确信他们希望我们不说这些事情，但这些事情是我所相信的。你要做什么？你知道，他们，他们最终希望，你知道，他们，他们像我们一样从这些交易中受益。你知道，看，我们都是成年人了。
**English / Original**
We've been good partners, you know, we can work together. I'm sure they wish we didn't say these things, but these things are what I believe. What are you gonna do? You know, they're, they're at the end of the day, they want the, you know, they, they benefit from these deals as much as we do. You know, look, we're all adults here.
## 00:18:25
**中文**
我们可以在一件事情上合作，而在另一件事情上存在分歧。彭博社报道称，你们的估值高于 OpenAI。对于一家成立五年的初创公司来说，我们正在谈论近万亿美元。你如何理解这个数字？如果你在计算方面更加自律，你有更快的盈利途径，那么为什么你需要那么多钱，算力增长得非常快，对吗？
**English / Original**
We can work together on one thing while disagreeing about another thing. Bloomberg's reported that you're at valuations that are higher than OpenAI. We're talking nearly a trillion dollars for a five-year-old startup. How do you make sense of that number and why do you need that much money if you, you know, you're more disciplined on compute, you have a faster path to profit, The compute is ramping up very quickly, right?
## 00:18:48
**中文**
因此，这两种情况都可能是业务的基本面看起来不错，但是，你知道，一年内你的算力将是三倍或四倍，或者，我不会给出确切的数字，但就像这些算力爬坡非常快一样。我们完全期望收入增长将达到并超过这些目标。
**English / Original**
So it, it can both be the case that the fundamentals of the business look good, but in, you know, in a year you'll have three times as much compute as, you know, three times or four times, or, I'm not gonna give exact numbers, but like these compute ramps are very fast. And we have every expectation that the revenue, you know, ramp will meet and exceed those.
## 00:19:09
**中文**
融资是为这片“不确定性锥”提供缓冲，因此完全理性。它只会造成很小的股权稀释；融资并不意味着业务基本面出了问题，事实上它完全可以与基本面强劲同时成立。
**English / Original**
But raising money is, is kind of the buffer against this cone of uncertainty. So it's a totally rational thing to do. It's, it's a very small dilution to the business, and it logically is not at all the same thing. In fact, it's compatible with the opposite as you know, that there's anything wrong with the fundamentals of the business.
## 00:19:28
**中文**
有报道称服务器承压、可靠性出现问题，用户抱怨 token 用尽。你说其他公司在基础设施上“YOLO 式豪赌”。你们已经拥有所需资源，还是在追赶？算力有一个市场：在几个月甚至更长的时间尺度上，我们能够获得大量算力。
**English / Original**
There have been reports of server strain, reliability issues, people complaining about running out of tokens. You've said other companies are yolo-ing on infrastructure. Do you actually have what you need or are you playing catch up? So one of these things about compute is there's a marketing compute, right? So, you know, my view is that over a period of time, even longer than a couple months, like, you know, we can get large amounts of compute.
## 00:19:53
**中文**
这里值得说明的是，按任何合理标准，我们购买的算力都不算少。我们原本按算力每年增长 10 倍来规划，这已经是我们的预期。但 2026 年第一季度的实际情况远超于此：单季度收入增长超过 3 倍，并非年化口径。若机械年化，3 的四次方约等于 80 倍。
**English / Original**
One, one thing that's worth saying here is, you know, I don't think we bought too little compute by any reasonable standard. So, you know, we were planning for a 10X a year growth in compute, 10X a year is what we expect. That isn't what we've seen over the first quarter of 2026. We saw a greater than three x growth in revenue quarterly, just in not annualized three x in the quarter, which of course, three to the fourth power is 80x over the course of the year.
## 00:20:25
**中文**
我们没有按年化增长 80 倍来规划，那样并不理性；因为如果最终只有 10 倍，你就会多买八倍资源。眼下是局部、极端的需求爆发，不会一直持续。否则到年底，收入会达到地球上任何公司都未曾达到的数字，我不认为那会发生。
**English / Original**
We didn't plan for 80x annualized growth. It would not have been rational to plan for 80x annualized growth, because that means if you only get 10x, you know that you, you have eight times less. So we're, we're, we're in a locally extreme, you know, explosion of compute that's not gonna continue. If that continued, you know, you just get to revenue by the end of the year, you get to revenue numbers that no company on earth, I don't think that's gonna happen.
## 00:20:51
**中文**
这种速度不可能一直持续。但短期内确实可能出现“天哪，增长远快于我们任何预期”的局面。你们看到了我们与 Google、Amazon 的算力交易；我们还能够、也会达成更多交易，算力市场具有流动性。
**English / Original**
It just, it just can't. But you can have these short periods where it's like, oh my God, like, you know, this is faster growth than we ever, ever possibly anticipated. But I don't know, you saw the compute deals with Google, you saw the compute deals with Amazon. You know, there are more that we kind of can and will do, like, you know, the market's liquid.
## 00:21:09
**中文**
就像如果，如果，如果，你知道，如果你能够很好地使用计算并且有需求，你就会获得所需算力。可能只需要一两个月的时间。超越你的劲敌感觉很好吗？听着，我们面前有很多困难的挑战，而且我们正在努力拉其他公司加入我们的竞争。
**English / Original**
Like if, if, if, you know, if you're able to use compute really well and there's the demand, you'll get your compute. It might might just take a month or two. Does it feel good to surpass your arch rival? Look, I, we have a lot of difficult challenges in front of us, and there's this race to the top idea that we're trying to pull other companies along with us.
## 00:21:29
**中文**
我想我们已经看到了这一点。我们已经把他们拉到我们身边了。有时他们不承认这就是他们正在做的事情。有时他们在攻击我们时会模仿我们。但是，但是这个拉力是非常可贵的。因此，我认为成为卓越公司的价值，无论是在商业上还是在模型方面，你知道，这不是为了击败竞争对手而击败竞争对手。
**English / Original**
And I think we've seen that. We have pulled them along with us. Sometimes they don't admit that that's what they're doing. Sometimes they copy us while they're attacking us. But, but this pull is very valuable. And so I think the value of being the preeminent company, both commercially and in terms of models, you know, it's, it's not about beating rivals for the sake of beating rivals.
## 00:21:51
**中文**
这是关于有能力将生态系统与我们一起拉动。我们希望将来能够做更多这样的事情。但获胜的感觉必须有点好。我的意思是，听着，我们总是在努力取得成功，对吧？就像，我们一直在努力，你知道，我们没有，我们不想在这里失败，对吧？就像，我不认为我们应该关闭这项技术。
**English / Original**
It's, it's about having the ability to pull the ecosystem along with us. And we hope that we can do more of that in the future. But winning has to feel just a little bit good. I mean, look, we're always trying to succeed, right? Like, we're always trying to, you know, we're not, we're not trying to fail here, right? Like, I'm not someone who believes we should shut this technology down.
## 00:22:10
**中文**
我不是那种认为我们应当关停技术、停止开发的人。我们身处自由企业制度之中，这本身没有问题；我们需要做的是降低模型风险。因此，发展与风险控制之间始终需要平衡。在 Anthropic 的大部分历史中，你们一直是挑战者。
**English / Original**
We shouldn't build it like, you know, we, we, we, we, you know, we, we exist within a free enterprise system and, and, you know, there's, there's nothing, there's nothing wrong with this. We just have to mitigate the risks of the models, right? And, and so it's always been the balance between the two. Now for most of Anthropic's history, you were the underdog.
## 00:22:32
**中文**
我想，当你在这种规模下没有什么可失去的时候，你会更容易占据道德制高点。忠于自己的价值观有多难？我想说的是，你知道，我花了很多时间思考事情是如何发生的。你知道，随着公司规模的扩大。你知道，我对公司的各个层面、各个规模都持偏执态度。
**English / Original**
I imagine it's easier to take the moral high ground when you have nothing to lose at this scale. How hard is it to stay true to your values? What I would say is that, you know, I've put a lot of time into thinking about how, how that's the case. You know, as, as, as companies scale. You know, I've been paranoid at every scale, at every scale of the company.
## 00:22:55
**中文**
存在一些新的挑战，公司可能会以某种新的方式失败。要么是其在商业上获胜的意愿，要么是其价值观的核心。我对两者都很担心，因为我认为它们具有协同作用。我实际上看到了这样一个事实，即我们已经能够建立如此好的模型，这使我们能够以一种随着公司的发展、规模不断扩大而发挥作用的方式来维护我们的价值观。
**English / Original**
There's some new challenge, there's some new way the company can lose. Either its, its kind of will to win just commercially or kind of the core of its values. I'm, I'm worried about both because I see them as synergistic. I actually see the fact that we've been able to make such good models as the thing that, that allows us to assert our values in a way that works as the company grows, as it gets bigger.
## 00:23:19
**中文**
这里有许多陷阱和出错方式，并非因为我、联合创始人或公司领导层改变了价值观，而是因为公司人员构成变化得太快。我大概有一半时间都在向员工解释 Anthropic 的文化及其运作方式。
**English / Original**
There are lots of pitfalls here. There are lots of ways to go wrong. Not because me or the co-founders or the company's leaders values change, but because the composition of the company changes very fast. So I spend probably half of my time just talking to the company about the culture of anthropic and how the culture works, right?
## 00:23:38
**中文**
当你发展得这么快时，你就从大型科技公司雇佣了很多人。如果你不告诉他们 Anthropic 是如何运作的，他们只会简单地重述他们唯一知道的事情，那就是如何在他们来自的公司运作。所以这是一场持续的斗争和持续的挑战。而且，你知道，我和丹妮拉的首要任务也许是弄清楚如何保护这一点，因为我们认识到，从长远来看，这是我们的核心。
**English / Original**
When you're growing this fast, you're hiring a bunch of people from big tech companies. If you don't tell them how Anthropic operates, they'll simply recapitulate the only thing they know, which is how to operate at the companies that they came from. And so this is a constant struggle and a constant challenge. And, you know, it's like, you know, me and Daniela's, maybe number one top priority is, is figuring out how to preserve this because we recognize that this is the core of who we are in the long run.
## 00:24:06
**中文**
你们的产品迭代速度惊人，如此快速地发布这么多产品，是怎么做到的？有两个原因。第一，我们是一家目标统一、文化统一的公司；公司规模扩大后仍极其高效，所有人基本保持一致。文化与组织上的凝聚力是最大因素。
**English / Original**
Your product velocity is insane. You're shipping so much so fast. How are you doing it? I would say two things. The first is, you know, we have a unified company. We have a unified culture. You know, I think we've gotten, you know, grown larger while still being incredibly efficient. Everyone's still being on the same page, like just the cultural and organizational unity.
## 00:24:26
**中文**
第二大因素是 Claude 本身。我们使用 Claude 协助开发模型、提高效率并快速构建产品。这要求我们建立很多新工作方法；我们仍在学习，但它已经带来显著提速，而且这种提速正变得越来越可靠。
**English / Original**
I would say that's the biggest factor. And I would say the second biggest factor is Claude itself. That we're now using Claude to help, you know, develop our models and, you know, make them more efficient and quickly develop products. There's all kinds of new practices you have to develop. You know, we're, we're still new, new, we're still new at it, but you know, it's producing, it's producing a lot of acceleration and increasingly producing reliable acceleration.
## 00:24:49
**中文**
这就是我要指出的两个因素。你能告诉我你见过的人工智能做过的最疯狂的事情吗？我认为我见过的一些最疯狂的东西是围绕生物学和医学的。我见过很多案例，实际上包括丹妮拉，Claude诊断出一个医疗问题，而你知道，很多优秀的医生都忽略了这一问题。
**English / Original**
And so those are the two factors I would point to. Will you tell me the most wild thing you've seen AI do? I think some of the wildest stuff I've seen is around biology and medicine. I've seen a number of cases, including Daniela actually, where Claude diagnosed a medical problem that, you know, a bunch of fancy doctors had missed.
## 00:25:08
**中文**
在生物学方面，模型开始出人意料地擅长诸如药物设计之类的任务，或者计算化学之类的任务，我就像，哇，你知道，作为一个曾经是生物学家的人，我看着它，我想，哇，这很难。就像，你需要大量的培训才能做到这一点。
**English / Original**
And on the biology side, like the models are starting to get surprisingly good at like, you know, you know, tasks like drug design or, you know, computational chemistry or things like, and I'm just like, wow, you know, as someone who used to be a biologist, I look at it and I'm like, wow, that's hard. Like, you need a lot of training to do that.
## 00:25:25
**中文**
就像Claude正在变得擅长一样。我认为在这一领域我们将会获得很多好处。这对人工智能来说是积极的。我们将获得这些巨大的好处。生活会变得更好。人类体验的质量将会变得更好。一个世纪的科学进步，一个世纪的科学进步，一个世纪的进步。
**English / Original**
And like Claude is getting good at it. And that's one area where I think we're gonna get a hell of a lot of benefit. Like that's the positive for AI. We're gonna get these huge, enormous benefits. Life is gonna get better. The quality of human experience is gonna get better. A century of scientific progress, A a century of scientific progress and a century of progress.
## 00:25:45
**中文**
以及作为人类是什么感觉。就像回到 1900 年一样，想想我们在 1900 年代遇到的所有问题。人们过早死亡的所有原因，他们不得不遭受的所有问题，以及我们今天不必面对的所有物质匮乏。然后想想再过一百年。我真的相信本世纪的科学和医学进步，如果我们能够度过这个难关，我想我们会的。
**English / Original**
And what it's like to be human. Like a go back to 1900, think of all the problems we had in 1900s. All the reasons people died prematurely, all the problems they had to suffer, all the material deprivation that we don't have to deal with today. Then think of another hundred years of that. I really believe this century of scientific and medical progress, if we can get through this, and I, I think we will.
## 00:26:09
**中文**
我越来越乐观，相信世界会好得多。我知道你热爱写作，也以长篇文章闻名。你会用 Claude 辅助写作吗？会。但我还不会把 Claude 直接生成的文字放进文章，因为我的文风很具体，对此也很挑剔。我主要让它协助头脑风暴、梳理主题，或寻找可用的参考资料。
**English / Original**
I'm increasingly optimistic. We're gonna have a much, much better world. I know how much you love writing. You're known for your essays. Do you use Claude to help write? I do. I have not gotten to the point where I actually allow text directly written by Claude in, in, because I, i, i, I just have such a specific style that I'm, I'm a little picky about it, but I basically use Claude to like, you know, to help me brainstorm, to help me think through the themes to help me kind of, oh, you know, what are some references I could use for this?
## 00:26:39
**中文**
就这样吧，它起到了支撑作用。我不知道Claude能写得比我好还有多远。我们还没有完全做到这一点。但是，但是你知道，我认为，我认为它肯定会到来。我也喜欢写作，我，你知道，我觉得写作可以帮助你理清思路。这涉及很多批判性思维。
**English / Original**
So it it, it kind of plays a supportive role. I don't know how far we are from Claude being able to write better than me. We're not quite there yet. But, but you know, I think, I think certainly it's coming. I love writing too, and I, you know, I feel like writing it helps you struggle through ideas. There is a lot of critical thinking involved in that.
## 00:26:55
**中文**
如果我们让Claude为我们做这件事，我们会失去这一点吗？我我我我有点担心这个。事实上，这就是我自己写作的一半原因。这当然是针对外部观众的。很多人读我写的东西，但它、它、它同样是为了澄清我自己的想法，这样我就知道下一步该做什么，并为我和其他人创建一个共同的参考点。
**English / Original**
Do we lose that if we let Claude do it for us? I, I, I'm a little worried about that. And in fact, that's half the reason I write myself. It certainly is for external audiences. Many people read what I write, but it, it, it is just as much to clarify my own thinking so that I kind of know what to do next and to create a common reference point across me and others.
## 00:27:15
**中文**
我认为我们仍在努力解决这样一个问题：我们到底如何以保留这些好处的方式使用人工智能。我认为我现在所做的事情就是利用Claude进行研究，我利用Claude来帮助我组织自己的想法。我认为如果我们只是端到端地使用它，就像写一篇关于人工智能风险的文章，首先，它不会写出我想的东西，但我也会，我就会失去这种好处。
**English / Original**
I think we're still grappling with the question of how exactly do we use AI in a way that kind of preserves those benefits. I think the thing I'm doing now does that where I use Claude for research and I use Claude for kind of, you know, how do I help organize my own thoughts. I think if we just used it end to end, like write an essay about the risks of ai, first of all, it wouldn't write the things that I think, but also I would, I would exactly lose that benefit.
## 00:27:41
**中文**
随着模型进步，也许能以更直接的方式让它们参与写作，同时保留写作促使人思考的好处。但这会非常微妙，不可能一刀切，只能逐步摸索。我们或许会看到一个极不寻常的组合：GDP 高速增长，同时伴随高失业、至少是就业不足，或大量低工资岗位。
**English / Original**
There's some way, as the models get better, I think probably to, to use them directly much more directly in the writing and yet still preserve those benefits. But I think it's gonna be a subtle thing. It won't be all one thing. It won't, we'll have to kind of figure it out over time. I think we could have this very unusual combination of very fast GDP growth and high unemployment, or at least underemployment or, you know, low wage job.
## 00:28:10
**中文**
许多低工资工作，高度不平等。你对失业问题非常直接。人工智能可能会在未来一到五年内消除一半的入门级白领工作。那是一年前的事了。人工智能的发展速度令人难以置信。仍然是50%还是更高？我总是说，如果你回到那些原始剪辑，它们总是会断章取义，就像三秒钟一样。
**English / Original**
Lot of low wage jobs, high inequality. You've been really direct about job loss. AI could eliminate half of all entry level white collar jobs in the next one to five years. That was a year ago. AI has moved incredibly fast. Is it still 50% or is it higher? I've always said, and you know, if you go back to those original clips, they always get like, you know, cut out of context and like the three seconds.
## 00:28:32
**中文**
真正完整的表述一直是：我不知道会发生什么，但这个数字展示了局面可能疯狂到怎样的数量级。我也一直讨论应对方法，包括 token 税、与企业合作帮助员工调整；我对再培训计划略持怀疑，但也应把它纳入方案，再加上宏观经济政策。
**English / Original**
But like, you know, the, the real statement was always, I don't know what's gonna happen, but this is an order of magnitude for how crazy things could be. Also, I always talk about all the things we can do in response to this, right? I've talked about token tax and working with enterprises to adjust people, and I'm a little skeptical of retraining programs, but like, we should throw them in the mix macroeconomic policy, even from the beginning.
## 00:28:55
**中文**
我一直在谈解决方案，但人们似乎总喜欢截取“末日将至”的三秒片段。我的信息绝不是末日将至，而是：这是一个我们应当预见、应当担忧，并需要积极作出回应的问题。
**English / Original**
I always talked about solutions, but you know, somehow there's this tendency in the human psychology to clip the three seconds of like, doom is coming. So my message is just definitely not doom is coming. My message is like, this is something, you know, that we should see coming, that we're worried about and that we need to actually respond to positively.
## 00:29:14
**中文**
我不知道准确数字，但担忧仍在同一数量级。现在 AI 的确在提高人的生产率，但这通常只是自动化过程中的一个阶段。我在《技术的青春期》中写过：当一项工作 90% 被自动化时，人可以专注剩余 10%，生产率提高十倍。
**English / Original**
You know, I don't know exactly, but I'm, I'm still pretty concerned. I'm still the same order of concern. You know, we are seeing right now that AI is making people more productive. But that's the usual hump. If you go back, you know, to the kind of industrial, you know, I wrote about this in Adolescence of Technology. You automate 90% of the job, great, people are 10 times more productive in the other 10%.
## 00:29:36
**中文**
因为他们的杠杆是原来的十倍。但最终它接近百分之一百。现在的续集是，那么你必须为他们找到其他事情做。我，我不知道长远来看，我对此真的很不确定。但我确实认为适应有多种类型。就像我要谈论的一件事是，你知道，Anthropic 内部的软件工程师。
**English / Original**
'cause they're 10 times more leveraged. But eventually it gets close to a hundred percent. Now the sequel to that is, well then you have to find something else for them to do. I, I don't know about the long run, I'm truly uncertain about that. But I do think there are types of adaptation. Like one thing I'll talk about is, you know, software engineers within Anthropic.
## 00:29:56
**中文**
我们正在经历这种转变：目前，即使 AI 已经编写全部或几乎全部代码，它仍能提高软件工程师的生产率。但我们已开始看到另一种情况的苗头——对某些工作而言，与其让 AI 辅助人类，不如直接让 AI 完成任务。
**English / Original**
We're, we're going through this transition right now where, you know, right now AI makes the software engineers more productive, even though AI writes all the code or almost all the code. But still it makes people more productive. But we're already starting to see the beginning of like, you know, there may be some people that it's, it's not making more productive that it's better for the AI to just, to just do the thing.
## 00:30:17
**中文**
这是一面。另一面是：哪些岗位的需求会增加？例如“前沿部署工程师”或“应用 AI 解决方案架构师”，工作同时包含技术实施和客户沟通。由于客户众多、公司增长很快，这类人才需求很大。
**English / Original**
So that's one side of it. The other side of it though is what do we need more demand for? You know, there's something we call a forward deployed engineer or in like applied AI solutions architect where their job is a mix of technical work and talking to customers. There's a lot of demand for that because there's a lot of customers and we're growing very quickly.
## 00:30:35
**中文**
那么，每个纯软件工程师都适合转去做这种工作吗？不，转换并不完美，也不是一一对应。这说明未来会有极大扰动，但经济也会调整。哪一面占上风，我不知道；正因为如此，我们才必须提前发出警告，以便作出应对。
**English / Original**
Now, does every person who is in the pure software engineering quite work for the this other? No, you know, it's not perfect. It's not one-to-one. That gives you a flavor of, there's gonna be a hell of a lot of disruption, but things will also adjust. Which wins out? I don't know. But the reason it's important to warn about it is that that's how we can respond.
## 00:30:59
**中文**
这样我们才能制定政策——既包括 Anthropic 内部的政策，也包括面向整个世界的宏观经济政策。我们希望提出经过深思熟虑的观点，不说别人不相信我们会兑现的话，也不抛出不成熟的主张。我们要认真思考这些问题究竟应该如何解决。
**English / Original**
That's how we can make policy, right? Both within Anthropic and macroeconomically for the whole world. We wanna put out carefully considered thoughts. We don't wanna say things that people don't believe we'll actually do. We don't wanna say things that are half baked. We want to think carefully about what should actually be done about these, these problems.
## 00:31:16
**中文**
你拿出这张图表，显示潜在的工作中断，比如销售、财务，你知道，哪些工作会消失，谁会被取代，以及会创造哪些新工作。所以没有人确切知道，因为你知道，经济是不可预测的，对吗？跟股票市场是一样的吧？它们是一种分散的流程，你实际上并不提前知道人们仍然能够完成哪些工作。
**English / Original**
You put out this chart showing potential job disruption like sales, finance, you know, which jobs go away, who gets replaced and what new jobs are created. So no one knows for sure, because you know, the economy's unpredictable, right? It's the same as the stock market, right? They're these kind of decentralized processes that you, you don't really know ahead of time what are the pieces of the job that people are still gonna be able to do.
## 00:31:40
**中文**
但我想说的是，无论在哪里，只要有这种入门级白领，无论是银行业还是金融业，人工智能都有很大的潜力，首先可以提高人们的生产力。但你知道，然后，然后，然后，就会有一个大规模的人工智能可以完成这项工作，然后我们必须考虑，嗯，你知道，人们可以做什么？
**English / Original**
But what I would say broadly is that, you know, anywhere that you have, you know, these kind of entry level white collar, you know, whether it's banking, whether it's finance, whether it's, you know, there's, there's, you know, there's, there's gonna be a lot of potential for AI to first make people more productive. But you know, then, then, then there's gonna be, you know, then, then there's gonna be a wholesale AI can do the job and then we're gonna have to think about, well, you know, what is it that people can do?
## 00:32:08
**中文**
我认为我们需要提前计划。我们已经在这么做了。当我们与企业客户交谈时，我们看到他们面临的选择。他们面临的选择是，你知道，我应该节省成本吗？这通常意味着雇用更少的人员，基本上用更少的资源做同样的事情，或者我们应该用相同数量的资源做更多的事情？
**English / Original**
And I think we need to plan about that ahead of time. We're already doing it. When we talk to enterprise customers, we see choices that they face. They face the choice of, you know, should I save costs? Which often means hiring less people, basically do the same thing with less resources, or should we do more things with the same amount of resources?
## 00:32:28
**中文**
只要有可能，我们都会推动客户用同样资源做更多事，而不是单纯削减成本。这样企业会雇用同样多、甚至更多的人，去开展新的工作；也就是引导他们走向正和结果。我们的有利条件是，整个经济蛋糕会大幅扩大。
**English / Original**
And we always, when we can try to push them to doing more with the same amount of resources, because basically that means like, hire the same number of people or maybe even more people, but just do, do kind of, kind of do new things. Pushing them towards the positive sum. The thing that that we have going for us here is the pie is gonna expand a lot.
## 00:32:47
**中文**
由于经济蛋糕会大幅扩大，理论上会出现人们可转入的新领域，关键是能否足够快地找到并完成人岗匹配。我警告的是扰动规模会非常大；我们必须解决这个匹配问题。请具体推演一下。
**English / Original**
And so, because the pie is gonna expand a lot, there are probably going to be places where people can go. It's just a matter of finding them fast enough. It's the size of the disruption. It's, it's gonna be big. And that's what I'm warning people about. But we kind of, we have to solve that matching problem. And So play this out for me a little bit.
## 00:33:06
**中文**
你知道，五年后你醒来，这个国家是什么样子？那些人在做什么？是的，因为如果有那么多失业，那不是革命的开始吗？是的，不，这是我们想要阻止的结果。这绝对是我们想要阻止的结果。你知道，我认为，我认为有，我认为有几个地方，没有一个是有保证的。
**English / Original**
You know, you wake up in five years, what does this country look like? What are those people doing? Yeah, so 'cause if there's that much unemployment, is that not how revolutions start? Yeah, no, this is the outcome we wanna prevent. This is absolutely the outcome we want to prevent. You know, I think, I think there's, I think there's a few places, none of them are guaranteed.
## 00:33:26
**中文**
我们不能确定，但一个方向是物理世界。机器人也在进步，不过速度远慢于软件 AI。当处理各种信息变得极其容易，真正的瓶颈也许会转移到物理世界。
**English / Original**
We're not sure, but there's the physical world, right? Like things that are in the physical world, yes, there's a robotics revolution as well, but it's a lot slower than what's happening in AI. People always talk about building data centers, but like when processing information of any type becomes a lot easier, maybe the restriction is gonna be things in the physical world.
## 00:33:46
**中文**
因此，我们需要更多的人在现实世界中制造、建造、制造东西。任何以人为本的事情，我认为这都会是一件大事，对吗？我听说所有这些关于人工智能的故事发现了一些我的医生找不到的东西，但我觉得，但是，人们真的想与其他人交谈，特别是在一些重要的事情上，对吗？
**English / Original**
And so we need a lot of more people to make, build, manufacture things in the physical world. Anything that's human centered, I think that's gonna be a big deal, right? I hear all these stories about AI found something that my, like my doctor couldn't find and I feel, but like, but there's a, people really wanna talk to other humans, particularly over kind of important things, right?
## 00:34:08
**中文**
AI 或许能提供更好的客户服务，但至少一部分人仍想和真人交流。因此，以人际关系为核心的工作会很重要。人类也需要在某种程度上引导 AI，使其符合某个人的价值观和意图；只是这种人类角色最终会很薄还是很厚，我无法确定。
**English / Original**
Maybe AI can do better customer service, but nevertheless people, or at least some people wanna talk to humans. So these kind of human relationship driven jobs, like, I think those are gonna be important, right? And I think there'll be some effort by the humans to kind of direct the ais right? At, at some level it has to be in line with someone's values and someone's intentions and, and so I, I think there's gonna be some role there, although I don't know how thin versus how thick it will be.
## 00:34:36
**中文**
这很难判断。对此有很多反驳；我知道你说自己是在提醒公众，但黄仁勋等人认为你把“任务”与“工作岗位”混为一谈，也有人说这是有利于 Anthropic 的“末日营销”。我想明确而有力地回应：完整的论述是“就业流失存在风险，同时这里有一些应对思路”。
**English / Original**
And I think it's very hard to say. There has been a lot of pushback, and I know you've said you're trying to warn people, but that, you know, you're, you know, Jensen Huang said you're conflating tasks with jobs. Other folks have said this, you know, it's sort of doom marketing that benefits Anthropic. So, so I wanna be really clear and push back hard against this, the whole picture of there are risks to job loss and here are some ideas.
## 00:34:59
**中文**
我的意思是，我们还没有完全充实这些想法，因为我想让它们正确，但 Anthropic 已经提出了很多想法。我们有经济补助，我们有经济指数。我谈论的是解决这些风险的可能方法，从税收和宏观经济政策到技术青春期的新就业机会。
**English / Original**
I mean, we haven't fully fleshed out the ideas because I want to get them right, but Anthropic has come up with lots of ideas. We've had economic grants, we have the economic index. I talk about the, the possible ways to address these risks from tax and macroeconomic policy to what the new jobs are in the adolescence of technology.
## 00:35:19
**中文**
你知道，我列出了大约五页的内容，其中列出了任务和工作之间的区别。为什么这次和其他时候不一样。从私人慈善事业到政府行动，我们可以做六种不同的事情。我谈论问题，我谈论解决方案，但是社交媒体，我讨厌它，我讨厌它作为一个类别，人们有这三秒的剪辑，你知道，来自一年前。
**English / Original**
I lay out, you know, I have like five pages where I lay out the difference between tasks and jobs. Why this time is different than other times. A list of six different things we can do from private philanthropy to government action. I talk about the problems, I talk the solutions, but social media, which I detest, which I detest as a category, people have these three second clips from, you know, from a year ago.
## 00:35:47
**中文**
他们实际上并没有阅读这些文章，或者他们利用了社交媒体的想法，我已经，我已经更仔细地写过这些事情，在我谈论风险的地方，这种廉价营销的想法本身就是廉价营销。这是，这是懒惰，这是未能从事严肃的智力工作。
**English / Original**
They don't actually read the essays or they prey on the idea that social media, I've, I've written much more carefully about these things where, where I talk about the risks, the idea that this is cheap marketing is itself cheap marketing. This is, this is laziness, this is failure to engage with serious intellectual work.
## 00:36:09
**中文**
而且，我认为这是问题的一部分。我再次认为这是硅谷疾病的一部分。它已经陷入了这个社交媒体世界的三秒钟。因此，人们只会对它做出反应，或者他们认为他们只需再次对它做出反应。我认为这非常危险，我们未能进行成熟的对话。
**English / Original**
And, and I think that is part of the problem. Again, I think it's, it's part of the disease of Silicon Valley. It's been caught up in this social media world of, of, of three seconds. And so people only respond to it or they think they only have to respond to it again. I think it's very dangerous and we failed to have a mature conversation.
## 00:36:28
**中文**
人们只是懒洋洋地看一个三秒片段，便说“这就是 Dario 的观点”。这太愚蠢、太不严肃；每当有人这样说，我都会降低对他的评价。作为全球领先的 AI 公司之一，Anthropic 已深度参与美国国家安全的多个领域和军事行动；如今 Anthropic 与五角大楼围绕 AI 军事安全限制的对峙正在升级。
**English / Original**
Instead, people just lazily see this like three second clip and, and they're like, oh, this is what Dario was saying. It's, it's so stupid. It's so unserious. And whenever someone says something like that, I take them less seriously. One of the leading AI companies in the world is deeply embedded in many different aspects of US national security across military operations, The standoff between Anthropic and the Pentagon over AI military safeguards is ramping up.
## 00:36:57
**中文**
你们从在加州理工学院的时候起就一直持有反战立场，但你们是第一批与国防部签署合同、在美国用于战争的机密网络上运行的人工智能公司之一。解释一下。是的，所以，你知道，我想说的是，看，我的意思是世界，世界在改变。
**English / Original**
You've had a longstanding anti-war stance starting all the way back to your days at Caltech, and yet you were one of the first AI companies to sign a contract with the Department of Defense to operate on classified networks that the US uses to fight wars. Explain that. Yeah, so, you know, what I would say is, is look, I mean the world, the world changes.
## 00:37:17
**中文**
就像，你知道，我对这项技术的看法，你知道，当我看到俄罗斯入侵乌克兰时，当我看到中国入侵台湾的风险时，我担心我们有一种复兴的独裁集团，他们非常咄咄逼人，我们需要保卫自己。你知道，这是我一段时间以来一直相信的事情，现在仍然相信。
**English / Original**
Like, you know, my my view of this technology, you know, when I see Russia invading Ukraine, when I see the risk of China invading Taiwan, it worries me that we have a kind of resurgent authoritarian block that they're very aggressive and that we need to defend ourselves. That is something that I, you know, have believed for a while now continue to believe.
## 00:37:41
**中文**
这就是为什么在两届政府中，你知道，你知道，我可能不同意我、任何一届政府的每一项政策，但你知道，这就是为什么我们普遍支持这一点。我们不想要一个中国和俄罗斯可以建立的世界，你知道，可以用人工智能分析所有情报，可以，你知道，可以，可以使用人工智能，你知道，攻击台湾和乌克兰。
**English / Original**
And, and that's why across both administrations, you know, you know, across, you know, I may not agree with every policy of I, of either administration, but you know, that's why we've generally been supportive of this. We don't want a world where China and Russia can build, you know, can analyze all the intelligence with AI, can, you know, can, can use AI for, you know, for attacking Taiwan and Ukraine.
## 00:38:05
**中文**
如果我们无法保卫他们，就会出现严重问题，所以我们选择合作。我们当然不是为了钱：即便不考虑各种法律层面的攻击，要把系统部署到政府网络也极其麻烦，而回报并不高。我们这样做是因为重视此事；也正因如此，技术使用必须受到限制，这也是我在《技术的青春期》中提出的原则。
**English / Original**
And, and we can't defend them. So that's why we worked with them. We certainly don't do it for the, the money. It's a huge pain. You know, even, even even putting aside the, the lawfare, it's just a huge pain to get up on government networks for not that much money. So we, we did it because we cared about it, but similarly because we're doing it because we cared about it, there need to be limitations on the use of the technology and the formulation that I used in Adolescence of Technology.
## 00:38:31
**中文**
我们应该以各种方式使用这项技术，除了破坏我们自己价值观的方式，对吗？还有我们的大规模监视和完全自主武器的红线。我认为这些事情破坏了我们的价值观。如果民主国家做了这些事情，就不值得民主国家获胜。这就是我所看到的平衡，这就是我们所采取的立场，它解释了为什么我们是第一个与战争部合作的人，也解释了为什么有些事情我们不会做，而其他人愿意做这些事情。
**English / Original**
We should use this technology in every way except the, the ways that undermine our own values, right? And our red lines of mass surveillance and fully autonomous weapons. Those are things that I believe undermine our values. It's not worth democracies winning if democracies do those things. And, and so that's the, that's the balance that I, that I see, and that's the stand that we took and it, it explains both why we were the first to work with Department of War and why there were some things we wouldn't do when, when others were willing to do those things.
## 00:39:03
**中文**
我认为必须选定立场并守住它。有些公司从“绝不与政府合作”摇摆到“政府的一切需求都照做”，我无法理解。你应该确定原则并始终坚持。你们自 2024 年起一直与 Palantir 合作。
**English / Original**
I, I think you need to pick a stand and stand your ground. This idea of, you know, companies that seesaw from, we won't do anything with the government to suddenly we're doing absolutely everything with the government. I don't, I don't get it. You should pick your principles and stick with them. You've been working with Palantir since 2024.
## 00:39:20
**中文**
这是正确的。你知道，他们的技术被加沙的 ICE、警察部门使用。Claude是否被以其他方式用于监视？我们不通过 Palantir 或其他任何人与 ICE 合作。我们不与美国海关边境保护局合作，我不相信我们在加沙工作。你知道，我们，我们，我们非常谨慎，你知道，将我们的参与范围限定在我们相信的事情上。
**English / Original**
That's right. You know, their technology is used by ICE, police departments, in Gaza. Is Claude being used for surveillance in other ways? We don't work with ICE either through, either through Palantir or anyone else. We don't work with CBP, I don't believe we work in Gaza. You know, our, our, we're we're very careful about, you know, scoping our engagements to things that we believe in.
## 00:39:42
**中文**
你划定了红线，随后总统禁止联邦政府使用你们的产品，五角大楼将你们列为供应链风险；OpenAI 则接手并签署了你们拒绝的合同。怎样才算赢得这场争论？我不认为这里存在一家私营公司意义上的“胜负”，这不是 Anthropic 要去赢的一场仗。
**English / Original**
So, you know, you drew your, your red lines, the president banned you from the federal government. The Pentagon labeled you a supply chain risk. OpenAI jumped in and signed the contract that you wouldn't, what does winning this fight actually look like? You know, I don't think there's any winning. This fight for a private company like this isn't a fight.
## 00:40:00
**中文**
Anthropic 并不是在打一场需要分输赢的仗。我甚至不愿称之为斗争；这是一场关于政府应当如何正确使用 AI 的辩论。AI 是新兴技术，我们尚不完全了解它何时可靠、何时不可靠，也不了解它会以哪些方式促进或破坏我们的价值观。
**English / Original**
Anthropic is, is trying to win or thinks about winning or losing. This is more a, I won't even call it a fight. This is more a debate about what the proper use of AI by the government is. And AI is an emerging new technology. We don't understand the ways in which it's reliable or unreliable. We don't understand the ways in which it promotes our values or undermines our values.
## 00:40:26
**中文**
因此，我认为重要的事情之一就是为一些我们认为好的用例（坦率地说是其中的大多数）以及我们关心的一些用例建立先例。正如我所说，我们已经看到，你知道，你只能通过合同做这么多，对吗？正如我们所见，其他人可能会签署不尊重您的红线的合同。
**English / Original**
And so one of the things that I thought was important was to establish a precedent on some of the, some of the use cases we think are good, which frankly is most of them, and some of the use cases that we're concerned about. And as I've said, we've already seen, you know, you can only do so much with a contract, right? As we've seen someone else can sign a contract that doesn't respect your, your same red lines.
## 00:40:49
**中文**
但它所做的就是提高了人们对这个问题的认识，然后我们在国会进行了认真的两党努力，试图禁止我们担心的一些事情，并试图设置护栏。再说一遍，我不想将此视为一场战斗，但这是一种胜利，让我们的国家更仔细地思考如何正确使用这项技术。
**English / Original**
But what it has done is raised awareness for the issue, and then we have serious bipartisan efforts in Congress attempting to ban some of the things that we're concerned about and attempting to set guardrails. Again, I don't want to talk about this as a fight, but that's kind of winning the effort to get our country to think more carefully about what is appropriate use of this technology.
## 00:41:12
**中文**
“Anthropic 由一个意识形态上的疯子掌管，不该让他一个人决定——” “那不是我的问题。我的问题是 AI 如何参与我们行动的决策。” 你介意别人称你为“意识形态疯子”或称 Anthropic 是“一群左翼疯子”吗？我经常被人叫得更难听。别人想怎样称呼我或 Anthropic 都可以。
**English / Original**
That's. Anthropic is run by an ideological lunatic who shouldn't have a, sole, that's, But. That's not my. Question. My question is AI decision making over what we do, Do you mind being called an ideological lunatic or a bunch of left wing nut jobs? You know, I've been called worse things than that all the time. You know, people, people can call me or, you know, people can call me or anthropic whatever they want.
## 00:41:32
**中文**
真正重要的只有两件事：公司取得成功，以及我们坚持自己的价值观。从某种意义上说，这让我的生活很简单；当目标只有这两项时，你始终知道自己的立场。
**English / Original**
The two things that matter are, we're successful as a company and, you know, we stand up for our values. Like, I actually, in some ways my life is really easy because when those are your, you know, those are the two things you're trying to do. It's, it's, it's really simple, right? Like it, you know, you just, you always know where you stand.
## 00:41:47
**中文**
一名美国官员说，在大语言模型（LLM）帮助下，美军每天可打击的目标从 1,000 个增至 5,000 个。这意味着 Claude 能帮助军方更快杀死更多人。你对此能接受吗？这里有两个问题。第一，美国在军事上变得更有效的能力。
**English / Original**
A US official has said with the help of LLMs, the US military has gone from being able to hit a thousand targets a day to 5,000 targets a day. That means Claude can help kill more people more quickly. Are you comfortable with that? I think there's two things here, right? There is, there is the ability of the United States, you know, to be more effective militarily.
## 00:42:09
**中文**
我支持美国增强这种能力。我认为更强的军事能力不会引发战争，反而能威慑战争。你本质上是在问：你相信这个国家吗？你希望美国在世界舞台上更强大还是更弱？
**English / Original**
I, i I am supportive of that ability. I think having that ability be stronger doesn't cause wars. It deters wars. Like, you know, I basically, you you're asking like, you know, do you believe in this country, right? Do you want this country to be a more powerful actor rather than a less powerful actor on the world stage?
## 00:42:28
**中文**
能，我是一个爱国者。另一个问题是，美国政府正在执行的具体政策中，有些我支持、有些我不支持。但这不由我决定。如果我们提供一项技术——国防部提出过这一点，而我们也同意——
**English / Original**
I do, I'm a patriot. There's a separate question, which is, you know, are there particular policies that the US government is engaged in that I might support or not support? Obviously I support some of them and I don't support others of them. It's not up to me. If we provide a technology, you know, the DOW made this point and we actually agree with them.
## 00:42:49
**中文**
如果我们提供一项技术，我们就不能说，你可以做这个军事行动，你不能做那个军事行动。现在，我私下里可能认为这次军事行动是有意义的，军事行动是一个坏主意，但我们不会否认这项技术。你，你必须把政策交给军事决策者。
**English / Original**
If we provide a technology, it's not up to us to say, you can do this military operation and you can't do that military operation. Now, I might privately believe that this military operation makes sense and that military operation is a bad idea, but we're not gonna deny the technology. You, you have to leave policy in the hands of the military decision makers.
## 00:43:10
**中文**
我们能做的是设定高层次边界，阻止那些似乎不符合我们及国家价值观的用途，同时促进符合这些价值观的用途。这就是我们的思路。彭博社报道称，在对伊朗的战争中，美军通过 Palantir 的 Maven Smart System 使用 Claude 辅助选定打击目标。
**English / Original**
What you can do is to assert some high level boundaries that, you know, for, for us, prevent the use cases that seem inconsistent with, with our values, with our country's values, and promote the use cases that we think, you know, we think, we think encourage our values. So that's how we think about it. Bloomberg has reported that Claude is being used by the US military in the war in Iran to do AI assisted targeting via platform made by Palantir, Maven Smart System in February.
## 00:43:39
**中文**
据报道，2 月一枚美国导弹击中伊朗一所女子学校，造成 150 多人死亡，多数是儿童。Claude 是否参与了这次打击？我们无法接触相关信息，也不知道这些模型究竟如何被使用。战争中的这类错误显然极其可怕。
**English / Original**
A US missile reportedly hit a girl school in Iran killing more than 150 people. Most of them children. Did Claude play a role in that strike? We look, we don't have access to, you know, we, we don't know exactly how, you know, these models were used. You know, obviously like, you know, these things that, that, you know, mistakes that happen in warfare are really, really terrible.
## 00:44:04
**中文**
这确实是极其可怕的悲剧。它恰恰说明我们为何必须为不支持的用途设限；我们甚至愿意冒公司前途的风险，限制这些模型的使用方式。而且你所说的这一用途，甚至还没有触犯我们的红线。
**English / Original**
Like, this is a really terrible thing to happen. If that doesn't make clear why we have to, you know, stand up for use cases that, you know, we don't, we don't support, like, you know, we, we, we were willing to risk the future of our company to like limit how, you know, these models are used and you know, what, what you're talking about is a use case that doesn't even violate our red lines.
## 00:44:25
**中文**
我们担心的是：一旦出现触犯红线的用途，规模可能再扩大一百倍。总体而言，我认为使用这些模型是适当的、利大于弊；但即使在最好的时期，军事决策者也会犯下可怕错误。
**English / Original**
We're worried that there will be a hundred times as much, you know, with, with use cases that, that, that do violate our red lines. Now I, you know, I I I, you know, again, again, I would say I think overall the use of these, the, the use of these models is appropriate. I think it's good on net, you know, but military decision makers make terrible mistakes even when, even, even at the best of times.
## 00:44:48
**中文**
我不知道我们现在是否处于“最好的时期”。这里有几个不同问题。我们可以设置红线，避免模型被用于更容易导致此类悲剧的场景。例如，如果我们像如今几乎所有其他公司那样，直接把模型交给完全自主武器系统，会怎样？
**English / Original**
And I, I don't know if we're in the best of times. Like there's several things we can talk about. We can talk about making red lines that, you know, prevent uses of the models that are more likely to lead to those problems, right? If we had allowed, you know, fully at high, if we had just given, in which almost every other company now has to fully autonomous weapons, right?
## 00:45:06
**中文**
这次的情况是 Claude 提供辅助，但最终决定由人作出，因此下令的是人而不是 Claude。设想另一个世界：不是 Claude——因为我们不允许——而是别家的 AI 模型直接作出决定，人类根本不过目。我们所坚持、所反对的正是这一点。
**English / Original**
This is like a human, what what we've seen here is Claude assists, but a human makes the final call. So a human made that final call, not Claude. Imagine if you had a world in which, not Claude, because we haven't allowed it, but someone else's AI model. The AI model just makes the decision and the human never sees it. That's what we were standing up for.
## 00:45:26
**中文**
这正是我们努力阻止的事。我还想指出另一个问题：采购合同并不是解决它的正确方式。确保军事决策者不犯此类错误、可靠行事并明智选择行动，是美国人民的切身利益；这里重要的不是我作为技术供应商的利益。
**English / Original**
That's what we were fighting against. I would, I would also say, you know, there's a separate thing here. Again, I don't think procurement is the right way to do it, but like, you know, we, we, we need to make sure that, you know, it's, it's a matter of interest to the American people, not to me as a supplier of the technology, but to the American people that are military decision makers don't make these mistakes that they operate reliably, that, you know, they choose wisely what to do.
## 00:45:49
**中文**
作为公民，也作为技术供应商，我对此当然关切。政府大量使用 Microsoft Excel；但你不可能要求微软规定 Excel 可以用于某次军事行动、却不能用于另一次。希望这个类比能说明我们的思考方式。
**English / Original**
Again. You know, that's, that's of concern to me as a, as a, you know, as a citizen, as a supplier of the technology. Like, you know, the government uses Microsoft Excel a lot. You know, if I said micro, you can use Excel for, you know, this military operation, but not the, you can't, you can't realistically do that. But hopefully that gives you a sense of how we think about it.
## 00:46:11
**中文**
这所学校有网站，用 Google 一搜就能找到。Claude、AI 或他们所用的任何技术难道不该识别出来吗？这是否揭示了一个更可怕的问题：在战争中把技术当作捷径？我只能说，我不知道；这也许依赖我无法接触的机密信息。
**English / Original**
This school had a website. You could have found it in a Google search. Like shouldn't Claude have spotted that, shouldn't AI or whatever technology they used have spotted that. And does it speak to a scarier issue about using technology as a shortcut in war. Look, I look what I'm, what I'm, you know what I'm gonna say is, you know, and, and I, you know, I don't, I don't know, this relies on, you know, maybe classified knowledge that I don't have.
## 00:46:34
**中文**
但我们确立的原则——我认为这次也遵守了——是最终决定必须由人作出。我不知道 Claude 或其他 AI 究竟扮演了什么角色；但如果这件事还不足以说明该原则为何如此重要，我不知道还有什么能说明。AI 战争更可能阻止美中之间的第三次世界大战，还是促成它？
**English / Original**
But you know, the principle that, that we have established, and I think the principle that was obeyed here is a human makes the human makes the final decision. I don't know what role Claude or any other AI had, but like, if, if this isn't an illustration why that principle is so important, I don't know what's, is Is AI warfare more likely to stop World War III, a war between the US and China?
## 00:47:01
**中文**
还是更可能引发它？总体而言，我认为 AI 更可能阻止战争；但如果其用途毫无限制，也可能更容易引发战争。你看过《奇爱博士》吧？片中的末日装置一旦判断自己遭到核攻击，就会自动发射核武器。
**English / Original**
Or is it more likely to make it happen? I would say on balance it is more likely to stop it. But if we have no limits on how it's used, then I think, you know, it could be more likely to cause it. You know, you've seen Doctor Strangelove, right? The premise of it was like you have a doomsday device that automatically fires nuclear weapons when it thinks nuclear weapons are being fired at it.
## 00:47:23
**中文**
可能会出什么问题？正确的。再说一次，我我我谈到这个致命的，你知道的，完全自主的武器。我认为冲突发生的方式是，双方互相攻击。他们互相误解。当我们对这项技术没有适当的监督时，我认为这类事故更有可能发生。
**English / Original**
What could go wrong? Right. Again, i I I get to this lethal, you know, fully autonomous weapons thing. I think the way conflicts happen is that, you know, the, the two sides jump at each other. They misunderstand each other. And when we don't have proper oversight of this technology, I think those kinds of accidents are more likely to happen.
## 00:47:41
**中文**
如果以适当方式使用 AI——甚至先不谈作战，只谈情报收集——例如能提前发现针对台湾的入侵准备或乌克兰战场上的新动向，那么对手知道我们掌握其行动后，发动入侵或军事行动前就会三思。
**English / Original**
Now, I think if AI is used in an appropriate way, in, in, in, not even warfare, but think of just, just intelligence collection, you know, let, let's say we're able to, you know, predict an invasion of Taiwan or a new movement in Ukraine. Like, you know, our adversaries will think twice about, you know, about conducting some kind of invasion or military operation if we know everything that they're doing.
## 00:48:06
**中文**
因此，我认为更强的情报能力确实能够威慑冲突，更强的响应能力也能威慑冲突；我仍然相信这一点。Anthropic 几乎每周都登上新闻，最近最受关注的当然是 Mythos。这是 Anthropic 最新、最先进的模型，能够自主走完网络攻击杀伤链的全部环节。
**English / Original**
And so I think superior intelligence really can de deter conflict here. Superior ability to respond can deter conflict. I continue to be a believer in these things. Anthropic's making headlines almost on a weekly basis. Yes. Most notably now around mythos. Of course, This is the latest and greatest Anthropic model, and it is capable of going through all the links of the cyber kill chain and doing so autonomously.
## 00:48:31
**中文**
你说 Mythos 过于强大，不能向公众发布。它最令你吃惊的是什么？模型发现漏洞的能力一直在提升，更重要的是，它们还能把漏洞转化为可执行的攻击；人们通常只谈发现漏洞。
**English / Original**
You said mythos was too powerful to release to the public. What surprised you most about it? I think the thing that surprised me most about it was the models had been climbing in their ability to find vulnerabilities and importantly turn those vulnerabilities into exploits, which people only talk about the vulnerabilities.
## 00:48:49
**中文**
人们不常谈到把漏洞转化为攻击利用，而 Mythos 在这方面非常强。令我惊讶的是能力出现了特别巨大的跃升，而且几乎无需我们提示。最早获准试用的一些公司说：“这是一件超级武器。”
**English / Original**
They don't often talk about turning the vulnerabilities into exploits, which it, it was quite good at. So the things that surprised me are we saw this huge jump. It was a particularly large jump and without us really prompting them at all, some of the early companies that we gave this to said things like, this is a super weapon.
## 00:49:09
**中文**
“使用它应该先取得持枪许可证，请不要公开发布。”这些要求正是来自首批获得模型的公司：他们发现了大量关键漏洞及其可利用方式，因而主动要求我们不要发布。
**English / Original**
You should have to own a gun license to use it. Please don't release this. Like, the, the demand to do this was coming from the companies we gave it to who were finding so many critical vulnerabilities and exploitability around these critical vulnerabilities that, you know, they, they were basically asking us not to, not to not to release it.
## 00:49:30
**中文**
需要澄清的是——社交媒体总会扭曲事实——我们的目标不是永远把它封存起来。我们会逐步向更多人开放；最终，我们认为应在配备强有力网络安全防护的前提下，把 Mythos 提供给普通用户。
**English / Original**
Now to be clear, 'cause things always get distorted in the world of social media, the goal isn't to keep this locked up forever. We're kind of gradually trying to open this up to a wider and wider set of people and eventually we believe that we should release mythos to to, you know, to a general audience, but with kind of strong cyber safeguards.
## 00:49:51
**中文**
问题在于现有网络安全防护。我们曾随 Opus 4.7 发布这些防护；Opus 4.7 是不错但明显较弱的网络模型。这些防护可以被越狱。其他公司认为这已足够，我们对此担忧：它有时有效，但分类器能够被绕过。我们的测试以及对同行防护的评估都表明，现有防御还不够强。
**English / Original**
Now, a concern is today's cyber safeguards, which we did release on Opus 4.7, which is a good cyber model, but a substantially weaker one. These can be jailbroken and we're a little concerned about some of the other companies who think this is a sufficient defense because yeah, it works sometimes, but you know, we all know that these classifiers can be jailbroken or gone around and our own testing as well as frankly our assessment of the models that other, the defenses that other companies have put in place suggests that these defenses are not strong yet.
## 00:50:27
**中文**
我们正在等待防御真正达到可信水平。对此有很多反驳：有研究者说用更便宜的开源模型就能复现，也有人说 OpenAI 已具备相同能力。对那些称其为大型公关表演的人，你怎么回应？所谓“开源模型可以复现”的说法完全错误。
**English / Original**
And, and that's what we're waiting for, getting the defenses to the point where we really have confidence in them. There was a lot of pushback on it. You know, you have researchers saying they were able to replicate it using, you know, cheaper open source models. Some folks say OpenAI, you know, has these capabilities already, you know, what do you say to folks who say this is a grand PR play? Yeah, so the, the claim that could be replicated with open source models, that's just incredibly false.
## 00:50:57
**中文**
Mythos 的能力，是检查整个代码库并自行找出问题。有人在 Twitter 上说：如果把开源模型直接指向 Mythos 已经找出的那一行代码，它也能发现同一问题。但那根本不是同一个任务、不是同一个问题。
**English / Original**
So the idea is mythos looks across the whole cold base and finds something. Some guy went on Twitter and said, well, if you point an open source model at exactly the line of code that mythos finds, then it finds the same issue. That, that, that isn't the, that isn't the prompt, that isn't the question, right? Like, that is not, that is not the same thing.
## 00:51:17
**中文**
真正的检验是在企业和开源代码库的实际工作中。我们在 Firefox 中发现了 271 个新漏洞，在尚未修复或无法披露问题的私营企业中又发现数千个。此前模型没有找出那 271 个漏洞。把 Mythos 已从干草堆里找到的那根针递给另一个模型，和让它自己找出来，完全不是一回事。
**English / Original**
The ultimate test of this is like, we go to companies, we go to open source repos. We found 271 new vulnerabilities in Firefox. We found many thousands within the private, you know, companies who haven't fixed them yet or can't disclose them yet. Like no one found those 271 vulnerabilities with the previous model. So like the actual workflow of what actually works in practice as opposed to, you know, okay, I find the exact line that mythos found, you know, I found the needle in the haystack.
## 00:51:46
**中文**
其他模型当然也能认出已经被指出的“针”。至于所谓“这只是营销”：不发布这款模型让我们承受了巨大的商业损失。它显著加速了 Anthropic 内部的研究、生产和下一代模型开发；若对外发布，也会给外部世界带来同样的加速。
**English / Original**
Something else can now pick up the needle. But what about the folks who say, this was just good marketing. You know, we have suffered enormously commercially from not releasing this model. This model has incredibly accelerated research within Anthropic and production and next models. It would do the same in the outside world if we were to release it.
## 00:52:06
**中文**
这在商业上给我们造成了巨大损失。既然它既能帮助防守者也能帮助攻击者，我们还能保护任何系统吗？我们先把 Mythos 交给防守者，就是为了让他们修补漏洞。随着模型增强，也许会找出更多漏洞，但漏洞总量终究是有限的。
**English / Original**
This has hurt us enormously commercially. If this helps defenders, it also helps attackers. Can we defend anything anymore? What I would say is that the reason that we're giving Mythos to defenders before we give it to attackers is to patch all the bugs. I don't know, as the models get better, there may be more and more bugs to be found, but there's only so many, they're finite, right?
## 00:52:26
**中文**
可以把系统想成一个表面，孔洞数量有限；把它们逐一补上后，攻击就会困难得多。再加上代码本身由强模型编写，缺陷也更难发现和利用。希望六个月或一年后，我们会拥有比过去安全得多的互联网生态。
**English / Original**
It's like you have this surface and there's only so many holes in it. You, you patch all the holes and the surface becomes very hard to attack, as well as the code itself is written with the powerful models. So it's, it's then becomes very hard to find flaws in or break into. So I think on the other side of this, hopefully six months or a year from now, we have a much more secure internet ecosystem than we had in the past.
## 00:52:50
**中文**
我们正努力实现那个世界，也尽力让更多网络防御者获得 Mythos。我们一直与政府沟通并尊重其建议；政府担心反情报风险，因此放慢了开放速度，我认为这很合理。
**English / Original**
We're trying to get to that world and we're doing the best we can to open up mythos to new cyber defenders. We've been talking to the government, we're very respectful of their recommendations. They're slowing the pace at which we open it up because they're worried about counterintelligence risk. I think that's sensible.
## 00:53:08
**中文**
所有认真对待问题的人都明白，这里存在真实取舍。Twitter 用户和其他 AI 公司不断冷嘲热讽，但比较他们的言论与实际行为，会发现前后不一；他们并没有认真面对这些严肃取舍。
**English / Original**
I think all serious people here understand that there's real trade offs here. We see a lot of sniping from people on Twitter and from, you know, from other AI companies. You look at what they're saying and the inconsistency with what they're doing. It's not, they're not serious people. They're not seriously engaging with the, the serious trade-offs that, that, that, that we have here.
## 00:53:31
**中文**
看，每天都有客户打电话给我说，我想要访问 Mythos。有国家打电话给我说，我想要访问Mythos，而美国政府和我的安全团队却说，不，等一下。这是有风险的。什么？你知道吗，我并不是说某一方是对的？我认为它介于两者之间。
**English / Original**
Look, I have customers calling me up every day saying, I want access to Mythos. I have countries call calling me up saying, I want access to Mythos and I have the US government and my security team saying, no, wait a minute. There's risk to it. What? You know, I'm not saying one side or the other is right? I think it's somewhere in between.
## 00:53:49
**中文**
双方都有合理观点，这是真实而困难的问题。社会必须共同面对，而不是把它说成廉价营销，或由其他公司用廉价营销来做对立定位。那只显示出惊人的轻率与不成熟。
**English / Original**
Both sides have valid points, but there's a real challenge here and we need to face it together as a society, not accuse things of being cheap marketing, not use cheap marketing to try and counter position, which some of the other companies are doing it. It just, it just all shows an an incredible lack of gravitas and maturity.
## 00:54:08
**中文**
此刻我们必须共同面对这些问题。你是否已经不得不作出令自己不完全舒服的取舍？Anthropic 的整个历史就是一连串取舍。在理想世界里，你会希望在发布第一个聊天机器人前，花很多年研究每一种可能出错的方式。
**English / Original**
We need to all face these mo this moment together. Have you had to make trade-offs already that you're not entirely comfortable with? Throughout the entire history of Anthropic has been trade-offs, right? The entire history of Anthropic, right? Where, you know, in, in, in, in, in, in, in, in some ideal world, you would, you know, you would, you would prefer to, before you release the first chatbot, you know, you could, you could spend years studying, you know, every possible thing that could go wrong with it.
## 00:54:34
**中文**
我们确实推迟过 Claude 的首次发布，但只推迟了几个月。我的意思是，一切都是取舍，光谱两端的极端做法都不合理。如今我们处于商业领先位置，我和 Daniela 正尽一切努力，把尺度进一步拨向谨慎一侧。
**English / Original**
Now, we did delay, we did delay the initial release of Claude, but you know, we did it for a few months. So what I'm saying is everything is a trade off. You know, the, the extreme ends of the spectrum are, are, are completely insane. And so everything is a trade off. What I would say is that now that we're in, you know, what I would describe as a commercially leading position, I, I am actually, and Daniela are actually doing all we can to move the dial even further towards, towards being careful.
## 00:55:05
**中文**
这就是 Mythos 版本的意义所在，对吧？如果你不是领先者，那么很难做到这样的事情。所以我认为你会看到更多的事情，更多类似的事情。你知道，有这样的争论，为什么政府不接管你呢？为什么他们会让一家私营公司控制如此强大的技术？
**English / Original**
That's what the Mythos release was, was about, right? It's very hard to do something like that if you're not the leading player. And so I think you're gonna see more things, more things like that. You know, there's this argument, why wouldn't the government take you over? Why would they let a private company control technology that's so powerful?
## 00:55:25
**中文**
这是一个非常严肃的问题，我也有同样担忧。我不认为政府应该直接接管 Anthropic，但先回顾背景：历史上几乎所有强大技术，要么由政府建造，要么起源于政府。
**English / Original**
So I actually think that's a very, that's a very serious question and I share those concerns. I don't think the government should outright take us over, but I would put it this way. I would say, just to back up and describe the situation, every previous powerful technology we've seen in history was either built by the government or originated with the government.
## 00:55:48
**中文**
所以核武器，显然，你知道，最初是由政府建造的，之后几乎都是由政府建造的。但即使像互联网、GPS、手机一样，所有的研发，你知道，都是在实验室、联邦实验室和大学里完成的。人工智能是第一个在私营部门建立的技术，政府并没有真正发挥重要作用，而且起步较晚。
**English / Original**
So nuclear weapons, obviously, you know, initially built by the government and pretty much built by the government after that. But even like the internet, GPS, cell phones, all the R&D was, you know, was done in the labs and the federal labs and the universities. AI is the first technology that's been built in the private sector and where government has not really had a serious role and is coming in late to the game.
## 00:56:12
**中文**
这种局面危险且不稳定，并非我主动选择，但也没有现实替代方案：技术可以被造出来，对手正在开发，它又具有经济价值，所以必然会被开发。问题在于政府没有参与，而不在于私营部门参与。
**English / Original**
I think that's actually a dangerous and unstable situation. It is not the situation I would've chosen. There's not really an alternative, like, you know, this technology is possible to build, our adversaries are building, it has economic value, like it's, it's going to get built. The, the issue is the government not doing it, not the private sector doing it.
## 00:56:32
**中文**
我们需要思考权力制衡，包括制衡 AI 公司的权力。Anthropic 设有“长期利益信托”，这是一个能够任命和罢免多数董事的机构。
**English / Original**
I think we need to think about checks and balances on power. So I think there need to be checks and balances on the power of the AI companies, right? We have this thing, the long term benefit trust. What that is, is it's a set of, basically it's a body that can appoint the majority of the board members and remove the majority of the board members.
## 00:56:51
**中文**
顺着这套结构看，它实际上拥有解雇我的权力。我们正在引入一些公共治理元素——当然远非全部——让公司对那些并非只因持有股票而关心它的人负责。
**English / Original**
So it basic, it essentially, if you thread it through, has the power to fire me. And what we're looking at is we're introducing some elements, you know, nowhere near all the elements, but we're introducing a a little bit of the elements of like public governance, right? Where, where it's like, you know, you're accountable to someone who just doesn't, he doesn't just have stock stock in the company.
## 00:57:11
**中文**
这非常重要，而且无论公司未来发生什么，这套结构都会延续。AI 公司这一侧如此，我们也鼓励其他公司采用类似架构；政府一侧同样需要制衡。国会已经有人提出立法，试图落实这些红线。
**English / Original**
So that's, that's very important and that structure is gonna continue no matter what happens to the company. That's on the AI... And we encourage other companies to have similar structures on the government side, I think we need checks and balances. You know, there are, there are efforts in Congress that have been announced to enact those red lines, right?
## 00:57:30
**中文**
立法和司法部门都需要发挥作用。我既担心公司掌握这项技术，也担心政府掌握它；公司需要制衡政府，政府也需要制衡公司。
**English / Original**
So I really think the, you know, the legislative branch and the judicial branch need to exert themselves because this technology, I'm scared of companies having it, but I'm also scared of government having it. And then the companies need to provide checks on government, and the government needs to provide checks on companies.
## 00:57:46
**中文**
我们需要对技术实施基本监管，包括强制性的发布前测试，以及对模型的测试和审计。有趣的是，硅谷有一群人一开始认为：哪怕只要求技术透明、甚至实施出口管制，都会灾难性地扼杀我们创造这项技术的能力。
**English / Original**
You know, we need basic regulation of the technology. You know, I think we need to start doing pre-release testing, required pre-release testing, testing and auditing of the models. You know, it, it's very funny to me how there's a particular group of people in the tech world in Silicon Valley who started, you know, they, they, they started with a position of like even having transparency around this technology, even export control, you know, this is all, you know, just totally, it'll apocalyptically destroy our potential to create the technology.
## 00:58:16
**中文**
他们说监管会扼杀创新；可一看到我早已预料的第一个真实危险，就马上开始讨论国有化、要求政府直接接管。各位，你们从最极端的反监管立场——仿佛别人多看一眼就会毁掉整个行业——骤然摆到近乎共产主义的“政府应拿走一切”，这种摇摆太荒唐。
**English / Original**
It'll kill innovation. And then as soon as they see the first real danger, which I've been expecting all along, there's all this talk of like nationalization and the government should just seize it. Come on folks here, you're, yo you're yo-yoing from like the most extreme anti-regulatory, you know, you know, if you, if you look at us the wrong way, you're destroying the industry to, you know, this completely communist, the government should grab it all.
## 00:58:39
**中文**
我们需要更理性、更温和的办法；这正是我们一直主张的，因为我们理解这项技术的力量。我们既不恐慌，也不否认，而是看见平滑的指数增长并作出相称回应。那么，你重返白宫的访问怎么样？
**English / Original**
We, we need a more, we need a more sensible, moderate approach. That's the one we've been favoring all along because we've, we've understood the power of this technology. We're not panicking, we're not denying it. We see the smooth exponential and we're responding to it appropriately. So how was your visit back to the White House?
## 00:58:58
**中文**
我们总是尽力与政府中愿意合作的人合作。我们的方法很简单：有一套原则，就遵循它，并希望对方是理性的。坦率地说，政府非常认真地对待 Mythos。
**English / Original**
You know, we always try to work together with whoever we can in government. You know, I, I I said we have this simple approach, like we have a set of principles, we like follow those principles and we hope that folks on the other side are reasonable. And you know, honestly, the government has taken Mythos very seriously.
## 00:59:15
**中文**
我们与财政部长 Bessent、白宫幕僚长 Susie Wiles 都有良好对话。我认为他们真正理解这里的风险；Mythos 让这些风险变得更具体。和任何一届政府一样，其中有些部门与我们配合得很好、也理解问题。
**English / Original**
Like we've had good conversations with Treasury Secretary Bessent with Chief of Staff, Susie Wiles. I think they really understand, you know, the nature of the risks here. Mythos has, I think, you know, helped them to feel much more concretely where these risks are. So, you know, again, as with any administration, there are parts who we get along with very well and who understand it.
## 00:59:38
**中文**
也有些部门更难合作。这很正常，任何一届政府都会如此，我们只能尽力协调。你职业早期曾在中国科技公司百度的硅谷团队工作；你后来对中国问题立场鲜明。
**English / Original**
And you know, there are other parts that are harder to get along with. I think that's normal. That would be the case in any, in any administration, and we just try to navigate it as best we can. You worked at Baidu earlier in your career, big Chinese tech company. You worked at the Silicon Valley outpost of it, and you've been clear on your views on China.
## 00:59:57
**中文**
中国正在推出强大的开源模型，美国公司可以免费在其上构建产品。这是威胁吗？我们看到，模型智能水平具有极高溢价；用户极少主动选择能力更弱的模型。
**English / Original**
Strong open source models are coming out of China and you have US companies building on them for free. Is that a threat? So, you know, one of the things we've seen with this technology is that there's really a premium to how intelligent the models are. We very, very rarely see that people would prefer to use models with lower intelligence.
## 01:00:19
**中文**
当然，生态仍很繁荣；许多问题远比必须使用前沿模型的任务简单。但能力处于指数增长中：那些远落后前沿的模型，也许仍能创造相当于 2023 或 2024 年模型的经济价值。
**English / Original**
Now to be clear, there's a thriving ecosystem. There are lots of challenges and problems that are much easier than, you know, the ones we need frontier models for. But again, it's an exponential, right? Like it's possible that like these far from frontier models have economic value comparable to what we saw in 2023 and 2024.
## 01:00:37
**中文**
但我们的增长仍是每年 10 倍。因此我们发现，前沿模型创造的价值总是远大于落后前沿的模型。习惯于上一产品时代的人并不理解这一点。我过去没经营过公司，也不太受上一产品时代——尤其是社交媒体时代——的思维影响，所以对那个世界有些像局外人。
**English / Original**
But again, we have this 10X a year growth and, and, and so what, what we find is that what's on the frontier is always much, much larger than what is, what is away from the frontier. I think this is something that people who are used to building products in the previous era don't quite understand, right? As someone who's come in who, you know, hadn't run a company before, who's like, you know, has never thought about the previous product era particularly to test the social media era, I feel like an outsider to that world.
## 01:01:07
**中文**
我认为很多人的直觉错了。他们沿用旧产品时代的各种经验法则，但模型能力每年增长 10 倍的指数趋势打破了这些法则：智能是压倒其他一切的巨大因素。因此我们一再看到，真正的价值位于能力前沿。
**English / Original**
And I, I, I feel that people's instincts are wrong. They have all these kind of product heuristics and I think the 10x per year model exponential really breaks that like intelligence is just such a huge factor that it outweighs everything else. And so we're just seeing over and over again that, you know, the value is found on the frontier.
## 01:01:29
**中文**
现在，我真正担心的是其中一些落后模型在我们拥有Mythos级网络能力的情况下所面临的风险。 12 个月后，我们将拥有更好的网络能力，但Mythos级网络能力可能只是可供任何人下载。现在，希望我们能在此之前修补所有内容。
**English / Original**
Now what I do worry about with some of these laggard models is the risks of them where we have Mythos class cyber capabilities. 12 months from now, we'll have much better cyber capabilities, but the Mythos class cyber capabilities may just be available for, for anyone to, to download. Now, hopefully we'll have patched everything before then.
## 01:01:49
**中文**
我认为我们阻止不了这种扩散，但它确实值得严肃关注。你在百度的经历是否塑造了对中国的看法？并没有。我只在那里工作一年，主要学到的是语音识别等技术。
**English / Original**
I don't think there's anything we can do to stop it, but I, I think it's a serious concern. Did what you saw by do shape your views on China? Not really, no. I worked there for, I worked there for a year. You know, I think I probably learned more about like speech, speech recognition and, and you know, all, all, all all of that.
## 01:02:06
**中文**
也许唯一让我担心的是，你知道，我们如何获得所有语音识别数据的一部分是，你知道，他们就像，他们不祥地说，哦，我们不关心中国的隐私。所以我们拥有所有这些语音识别数据。但我认为，我认为除了我的担忧之外，这是地缘政治，你知道，我认为最让我担心中国发生的事情是，你知道，我们看到发生在维吾尔人身上的事情，我们看到甚至在美国压制批评的情况，以及香港发生的事情，对吗？
**English / Original**
Maybe the only thing that concerned me was, you know, part of how we got all the speech recognition data was, you know, they're like, they said ominously, oh, we don't care about privacy in China. So we have all this, this speech recognition data. But I think, I think aside from my worries, here are geopolitical, you know, I think the things that most worried me about what happened in China are, you know, what we, what we saw happen to the Uyghurs, what we saw with suppression of criticism even in the US, with what happened with Hong Kong, right?
## 01:02:35
**中文**
事实上，中共可以进入美国商业网络，并且镇压批评，这是一个独裁国家，而且是一个高科技独裁国家。当我看到它如何与人工智能结合时，你真的会发现这里就像 1984 年或更糟的反乌托邦。而且，我的重点是努力防止这种情况发生。
**English / Original**
The fact that the CCP could reach into the US business network and, you know, and suppress criticism, that's an authoritarian state and, and a high tech authoritarian state. And when I see how that combines with AI you, you really get a, a dystopia here like 1984 or worse. And, and my focus is on trying to prevent that.
## 01:02:59
**中文**
我认为我们有机会阻止这种情况的发生。我认为我们有机会让人工智能成为一种有利于民主的技术，这会让人们更加自由，从而兑现人人平等正义的承诺。或者事情可能会走向另一条路。而具体走向何方，取决于人工智能公司的行动。
**English / Original**
And I think we have an opportunity to prevent that. I think we have an opportunity for AI to be a pro-democracy technology, you know, that kind of makes people freer that delivers on the promise of equal justice for all. Or it could go the other way. And, and which way it goes depends on the actions of the AI companies.
## 01:03:17
**中文**
这取决于政府的行动，取决于我们所有人的行动。所以我认为我们在这里有责任。有一段时间，你所在领域的人们谈论人工智能已经足够好，可以自我改进，然后改进的版本可以自我改进，等等。你们的一些研究人员认为那一刻已经临近了。
**English / Original**
It depends on the actions of the government, depends on the actions of all of us. And so I see us as having a responsibility here. There's a moment that people in your field talk about where AI gets good enough to improve itself and then the improved version improves itself and so on. Some of your researchers think that that moment is close.
## 01:03:37
**中文**
还有多远？我不认为它是某个突然到来的时刻，而是一个持续过程。我们已经看到 AI 可以为下一代 AI 提出架构建议。一年前，AI 或许让我们的全要素生产率提高 10% 至 15%；如今可能已到 20% 至 30%，而且还可能翻倍。和其他一切一样，我们处于指数曲线上，并不存在一个 AI 突然开始自我改进、失控或变得不安全的单一瞬间。
**English / Original**
How far away is it? I don't think it's a moment in time. I think it's a continuous process. We're already seeing it in some ways where the AI is able to suggest architectures for the next AI. You know, I would say a year ago, we were seeing 10 to 15% kind of increase in total factor productivity due to AI. Like that's probably up to 20 or 30% now might, you know, might, it might be doubling like as with all things we're on the exponential, there's no moment where AI improves itself or runs out of control or becomes unsafe.
## 01:04:06
**中文**
我们面对的是不断加速的指数曲线；在曲线上的每一点，都必须评估是否该减速、是否需要加强控制。我认为控制会越来越多。但理解这一切的“罗塞塔石碑”，就是平滑的指数增长。
**English / Original**
What we have is an accelerating exponential and at each point on the exponential we have to assess is, is this a time to slow down? Is this a time to, you know, put more controls on on this technology? I think more and more of that is gonna be required. But I, you know, I think the Rosetta Stone to all of this is the smooth exponential.
## 01:04:25
**中文**
再说一遍，我认为那些反对所有人工智能监管的人有一个实际教训，然后他们看到了一件事，他们想要国有化。我认为，那些忽视人工智能的力量，然后说，天哪，它正在自我改进的人有一个实际的教训。它已经失去控制了。我们必须将其全部关闭。
**English / Original**
Again, I think there's an object lesson in the people who were against all AI regulation and then they saw one thing and they wanted to nationalize. I think there's an object lesson in the people who dismissed the power of AI and then said, oh my God, it's improving itself. It's running outta control. We have to shut it all down.
## 01:04:41
**中文**
作为对这项技术的回应，这些极端反应之间的摇摆是极其无益的。正确的反应、明智的反应是，我们不会惊慌。我们的对策将随着技术的力量而顺利加强。如果你看到有人有这种疯狂的溜溜球反应，那就表明他们感到惊讶并且他们不是认真的。
**English / Original**
Yo-yoing between those extreme reactions is incredibly unhelpful as a response to this technology. The right response, the wise response is to say, we're not gonna panic. Our countermeasures will smoothly ratchet up with the power of the technology. If you see someone having this kind of crazy yo-yo reaction, that's a sign that they were caught by surprise and that they're not serious.
## 01:05:06
**中文**
我知道你最喜欢的书之一是《原子弹秘史》。没错。你觉得自己与奥本海默有相似之处吗？我最认同的其实是利奥·西拉德——他最早意识到链式反应可能存在。我们不可能靠夸张的英雄人物，或试图站在一切中心的人度过这场变革。
**English / Original**
I understand one of your favorite books is The Making of the Atomic Bomb. That is correct. Do you see parallels between yourself and Oppenheimer? You know, the figure I most identified with was Leo Szilard, who, you know, the one who first basically had the idea that there could be a kind of chain reaction. Look, my view is we're we're not gonna get through this with like larger than life personalities or like figures who try and be at the center of everything, right?
## 01:05:30
**中文**
这里需要权力平衡。许多有影响力的参与者都有自己的利益，只有处处建立制衡，结局才可能对所有人有利。因此从某种意义上说，我反而把奥本海默视为一个失败案例，是我们不应重演的局面。你曾说文明崩溃概率约为 10% 至 25%，这绝非小数。
**English / Original**
There needs to be a balance of power here, right? There's a lot of powerful actors who have interests here, and the only way it's gonna end well for everyone is if there is some, there's basically checks and balances everywhere. So in some ways I actually see Oppenheimer as a failure case as what should not happen. You've said there's roughly a 10 to 25% chance of civilizational collapse. That is not insignificant.
## 01:05:57
**中文**
是否可能正是 Anthropic 构建的东西导致文明崩溃？我当然希望不会。我的看法是，我们采取的行动是在降低而非提高这种概率。风险来自一个很直接的组合：技术本身、世界上许多国家的存在、一个经济体中许多公司及不断出现的新公司的存在。
**English / Original**
Is there a scenario where it's something that Anthropic built, that caused that? I mean, I certainly hope not. My view is that, you know, the, the actions that we have taken lower that probability rather than increasing it, right? That probability comes from the, the, you know, the very straightforward recipe of the technology, the existence of many countries in the world, the existence of many companies within an economy and new ones created.
## 01:06:23
**中文**
如果我们不去填补这个位置，其他人也会填补——这就是我们面对的困境。我们试图降低这种概率，而且我认为我们降低的远多于增加的。但这项技术天生不可预测，所以我们会先构建、充分测试，再发布。
**English / Original**
If the void is isn't filled, like that's a dilemma that we're in. We are trying to act to lower that probability. I think we lower it a lot more than we raise it. But, you know, the inherent property of this technology is that it's unpredictable. And so, you know, we try to build something and test it a lot before it's released.
## 01:06:41
**中文**
今天发布的模型尚不危险——至少我认为，除网络安全领域外并不真正危险。我们会持续迭代并从实际使用中学习。公司内部有无数道防线，大约一半工作都在尽可能降低风险；但风险永远不可能为零。
**English / Original**
And then the models that are released today are not dangerous, or at least not, you know, really I think dangerous outside of cyber. And then we try and iterate and learn from that. So there's like a zillion defense mechanisms. You know, half of what we do within the company is try and, you know, reduce the risk as much as we can, but, you know, it's, it's never gonna be zero.
## 01:07:00
**中文**
假设市场上有许多航空公司，你决定创建一家安全得多的公司。你的航空公司完全可能比其他公司安全十倍；但如果有人问，你能保证飞机永远不坠毁吗？你怎么可能作出这种保证？
**English / Original**
I guess what I would say is, you know, suppose there are a bunch of like, you know, airline companies out there and you're like, well, I'm gonna make an airline company that's safer. It can both be the case that, you know, your airline company is 10 times safer than all the other airline companies. But you know, if, if someone comes and asks you, like, can you guarantee that your airplane will never crash?
## 01:07:19
**中文**
你当然无法保证。但如果一架飞机有 25% 的坠毁概率，你不会登机。没错，25% 太高；我们正在努力把这个概率降得低得多，这就是目标。你正在建造极其强大的东西，也可能从中获得巨大利益。
**English / Original**
I mean, how could you, how could you possibly, But if there was a 25% chance of an airplane crashing, you wouldn't get on that plane. That's right. 25% is too high. We're trying to make that probability much, much lower. That is the goal. You are building something incredibly powerful and stand to gain enormously from it.
## 01:07:37
**中文**
我们为什么应该信任你？任何公司刚创立时——尤其考虑到硅谷整体近年的行为和思维——若公众对我、对 Anthropic 一无所知，从不信任出发其实相当理性。
**English / Original**
Why should we trust you? My view of this is actually when any company starts out and, and particularly, you know, what we've seen with the behavior of, of just Silicon Valley as an entity. It's, it's thinking over the last couple years. I think starting from a position of distrust, you know, if you don't know anything about me, if you know anything about Anthropic is pretty rational.
## 01:07:56
**中文**
硅谷失去了世界的许多信任，必须重新赢得。我们想表明自己不同，但这只能靠行动赢得。你可以赞成或反对，但我们确实为价值观站了出来。比如 Mythos：不发布这款强大模型，确实严重妨碍了我们的商业利益。
**English / Original**
I think Silicon Valley has lost a lot of the world's trust and kind of has to re-earn it. And the message, you know, we're trying to send is or actually different and, and that has to be earned in things that we actually do. You can agree or disagree, but we stood up for our values. The thing with, you know, Mythos, like it's, it's really hampered us commercially not to put this very powerful model out.
## 01:08:19
**中文**
此前还有许多较小的例子。以中国为例，我们说到做到，主动切断其对模型的访问；没有人要求我们这样做。此举损失了数亿美元，而当时这仍占我们收入的很大比例。
**English / Original**
And there were a bunch of smaller things before it, you know, we, we, we put our money where our mouth is on, you know, China, we cut off access to, to models. We didn't have to do that. No one told us to do that. You know, that cost us several hundred million dollars back when several hundred million dollars was a big, was a significant fraction of our revenue.
## 01:08:35
**中文**
再比如推迟 Claude 2，我们在这方面有很长的记录。我们并不完美，也会犯错。我希望人们审视完整历史，问一问：哪种关于我们的解释最符合全部记录？每个人可以自行判断；我认为最一致的解释是，我们确实在努力做正确的事。
**English / Original**
You know, the, the delay of Claude two, like we have a long history of it. We aren't perfect, we make mistakes. But you know, what I would ask is for people to look at the overall history and say, if you add up that overall history, what is the hypothesis about us that is most consistent with that overall history? People have to decide for themselves, but I think the hypothesis that's consistent is we are genuinely trying to do the right thing.
## 01:08:59
**中文**
组织都不完美、时常运转失灵；我们一直努力修正并改善它。会有许多失误、许多问题，但从根本上说，我们对于怎样做正确的事有一幅诚实、认真的图景，并努力把它落实。希望我们能在指数曲线的另一侧再见。
**English / Original**
We're imperfect organizations are, you know, always dysfunctional. We're always trying to, you know, fix them and make them work better. Many foot faults, many things that go wrong, but at basis we, we have a honest and earnest picture of how to do the right thing and we're trying to execute on that picture. We will see you on the other side of the exponential then Hopefully.
## 01:09:40
**中文**
你一直想当好莱坞明星，对吧？担任 CEO 后最令我意外的一件事，是竟然如此频繁地需要化妆；这完全不在我的预料之中。也就是扑一点粉。
**English / Original**
You always wanted to be a Hollywood star, right? I, I, that's one surprising thing that I didn't understand about the CEO job is how often you have to wear makeup. That was not on my bingo card, Just a little powder.