# (77) Sam Altman on AGI, Compute, and Human Agency - YouTube
- Transcript ID: `xdb5beon4dy`
- Source tier: `youtube_auto`
- Original language: `en_or_source_language_unlabeled`
- Translation status: `agent_translated_reviewed` (113/113 chunks)
- Original source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XDB5beon4DY
- Raw evidence: `data/transcripts/youtube/XDB5beon4DY.json`
> 中文是派生翻译，英文是留存的源文本。中文未复核时，以英文和原始音视频为准。
## 00:00:00
**中文**
我认为，这将是人类历史上迄今最伟大的技术成就。但它真正有意义的唯一前提，是让人们的生活比没有它时好得多。我们即将创造一个能实现任何愿望的精灵。我相信人们会提出极富创造力的愿望，会想到让 AI 帮助构建的惊人事物；但 AI 权力的集中也非常可怕。我认为，没有人会愿意生活在由 AI 霸主统治的世界里，或生活在由一家近似扮演这种角色的公司支配的世界里。至关重要的是，我们要在 AI 时代保留这种精神，让所有人共同拥有自主决定未来的能力。
**English / Original**
I think this will be the greatest thus far technological achievement of human history. But the only way that it really matters is [music] if it makes people's lives like much better than they otherwise would have been. We are about to create a genie that can grant any wish. Because I think people will have such creative wishes and such incredible ideas of what they ask AI to help build, but concentration of power with AI is a terrifying thing. I don't think anyone should want to live in a world of, you know, AI overlords or company that is the rough equivalent of that. I think it's critical [music] we preserve that spirit with AI and that we all collectively have the ability to self-determine our future.
## 00:00:53
**中文**
所以山姆，[音乐]你写了一篇文章，我认为它非常简单，非常有趣，是一个很好的起点。去年真的很艰难，这在某种程度上是我的错，明年可能是我们最好的 12 个月。 >> 是的。 >> 我希望您能够反思这两点。也许从你为什么说第一部分以及为什么你相信第二部分开始。
**English / Original**
So Sam, [music] you wrote a post that I thought was very simple and really interesting and a good place to start. Rounded to the last year's been really tough and that's somewhat my fault and the next year is going to be maybe our best 12 months. >> Yeah. >> I'd love you to reflect on on both. Maybe starting with why you said the first part and and why you believe the second part.
## 00:01:10
**中文**
就前一点而言，我认为我们当时同时做了太多事情，缺乏足够的聚焦。那些事情本身其实都值得做，但诀窍在于：我们正处于一个不可思议的历史时刻，只能选择极少数真正伟大的事情去做。我们把精力摊得太薄，随后作出了一系列艰难决定，重新聚焦于提供最好、最充足、性价比最高的智能，并赋能全世界用它创造惊人的事物。自那以后，我认为我们的进展非常显著；根据目前管线中的成果，未来 12 个月会更加令人瞩目——无论是模型质量，还是我们能围绕这些模型打造的产品。
**English / Original**
>> On the first part, I think we just were doing too many things. We're not focused enough and they were actually all good things to do, but the trick is we're in this like unbelievable moment in history where you can only do the very few great things. So we spread ourselves too thin and then made a bunch of difficult decisions to really refocus on having the best most abundant most cost-effective intelligence and empowering the world to build incredible things with that. Since doing that, uh I think our progress has been remarkable and just given what we see in the pipeline will be much more remarkable over the next 12 months >> and the quality of the models that we'll have, the products that we can build
## 00:01:47
**中文**
围绕这一点，真正让人们以新的方式利用这项技术蓬勃发展。呃，应该是很厉害的。 >> 去年是否有某个时刻让你突然灵机一动，导致你改变方向或重新安排优先事项或其他什么？如果你回到 2025 年 20 年初，也就是一年半前，>> 是的，>> 最令人担忧的是像 OpenAI 这样的公司购买了如此多的计算，收入还会有吗？需求还会有吗？
**English / Original**
around that to really let people thrive with this technology in in new ways. Uh it should be pretty awesome. >> Was there a moment last year that something clicked for you that caused you to change directions or restack priorities or something? If you go back to the beginning of 20ou 2025, just a year and a half ago, >> yeah, >> the big concern was companies like OpenAI are buying up so much compute, is the revenue going to be there? Is the demand going to be there?
## 00:02:13
**中文**
>> 因此，我们试图考虑很多事情，如果收入增长需要比我们想象的更长的时间才能实现，我们可以拥有消费者应用程序和媒体以及所有其他可以帮助我们通过我们注册的 GPU 货币化的东西。呃，这现在听起来很荒谬，因为该行业的收入增长如此之快，但这是一个巨大的变化，然后当我们意识到模型轨迹增长如此之快时，这些模型就有如此明显的经济回报，就在我们说你知道我们知道要关注什么的时候。
**English / Original**
>> And so we were trying to think about like a lot of things such that if the revenue growth took longer to materialize than we thought it might, we could have, you know, consumer apps and media and all these other things that could help us monetize the GPUs that we were signing up for. Uh again it sounds ridiculous now because the revenue growth in the industry has been so steep but that was the big change and then as soon as we realized like okay the model trajectory is growing so fast there's such a clear economic return on these models that was when we said you know we know what to focus on.
## 00:02:42
**中文**
>> 我正在阅读您在 OpenAI 之前发表的一些精彩的旧帖子，其中之一就是关于焦点的大量讨论以及要关注的适量事物的概念。是一个吗？是五个吗？是三个吗？在这样的企业中，你如何调整这一点，特别是在你所说的需要重新集中注意力的时期？
**English / Original**
>> I was reading some of your your great old posts from prior to OpenAI and one of them is this notion of like so much discussion of focus and the right amount of things to focus on. Is it one? Is it five? Is it three? How do you calibrate that in a business like this, especially in this period where you've said you needed to refocus?
## 00:02:59
**中文**
>> 从根本上来说，我们的业务是销售人工智能，人们可以用人工智能来为彼此打造令人难以置信的产品和服务。我认为要解决的问题是我们必须训练出色的模型，这些模型可以按照人们想要使用的所有方式工作。非常擅长编码，擅长其他类型的知识、工作、擅长科学研究，比如真正的经济价值所在。
**English / Original**
>> Fundamentally, our business is to sell AI that people will build incredible products and services for each other with. The components that I think of as going into that are we have to train great models that work in all the ways people want to use them. So great at coding, great at other kinds of knowledge, work, great at doing science, like where the real economic value is.
## 00:03:21
**中文**
我们必须自行生产或与伙伴共同提供芯片和系统，也就是那些极其昂贵、能够执行 AI 计算的机架。我们还要找到足够的土地、电力和数据中心建筑来安置它们。最终——也许很快——我们还必须制造机器人，将这个过程自动化，继续压低发电、芯片以及整个供应链的成本。我们的完整技术栈，就是尽可能提供最好、最充足、最有用的 AI，让它像电力一样渗透整个经济并赋能每个人。
**English / Original**
We have to produce or partner with these chips and systems, these, you know, hugely expensive racks that can do the AI computation. Uh we have to find enough uh land power data center shells to be able to put those racks somewhere. And then eventually or maybe pretty soon, we have to build robots that can automate that process to continue to drive the cost down, the cost of producing electricity, chips, the whole supply chain. And that kind of whole stack of making the best the most abundant uh the most useful AI that we can and making it something like electricity that just seeps throughout the entire economy and empowers people.
## 00:04:00
**中文**
我认为这就是我们必须关注的。在此基础上构建每一个垂直应用程序，试图像吃掉每家初创公司、吃掉每家公司一样。没有兴趣这样做。呃真的很想提供这个平台。这种计算是人类历史上发生的最有趣的事情之一。我认为，这显然已经到了紧要关头，而且可能会在很长一段时间内达到紧要关头。我认为，当您进行一些早期计算分配和保护计算时，Dario 称您为 YOLO CEO。显然，现在你正处于每个人都短缺的位置，这个东西正在试图找到它。我很想早点听到
**English / Original**
That's kind of what I think we have to focus on. Building every vertical application on top of that trying to go like eat every startup, eat every company. No interest in doing that. Uh really want to just provide that platform. This compute thing is one of the most interesting thing that's happened in human history. I think and it's obviously coming to a head and maybe will be coming to a head for a long period of time. This is something that I think Dario called you the YOLO CEO when you were doing some of this early compute allocation and and securing the compute. Obviously now you're in this position where everyone is short this stuff is trying to find it. And I'd love to hear the early
## 00:04:31
**中文**
我想听听早期的故事：你为什么确信必须锁定如此多的算力，又是怎样做到的？事实似乎证明这个判断是正确的；回看当时的新闻标题，甚至可能是你投入得还不够，这听起来非常疯狂。你当初怎样得出这一结论？在所有人都认为这很疯狂时，是什么给了你付诸行动的信念？
**English / Original**
stories about why you gained conviction that you needed to secure everything that you did, how you did it. like it it seems to have been proven right and maybe maybe you even underdid it right which is kind of crazy if you look at the headlines from back then. Can you tell me the early story of like how you came to that conclusion and what gave you the conviction to do it despite everyone thinking it was crazy?
## 00:04:53
**中文**
>> 我们可以看出我们的模型正在呈指数级改进。我们对此非常有信心，并且知道它会继续下去。我们非常确定，尽管正如您提到的，我们低估了随着模型变得越来越好，如果我们能够继续降低成本，那么对人工智能的需求将达到足够高的水平，并且价格足够低，基本上不会受到限制。
**English / Original**
>> We could just tell that we were on this exponential of model improvement. That part we were very confident about and we knew it was going to keep going. We were pretty sure although as you mentioned we underestimated that as the models got better and better if we could continue to drive cost down that demand for AI at a sufficiently high level and a sufficiently low price was basically uncapped.
## 00:05:19
**中文**
>> 这对于世界来说就像是一种罕见的新商品。嗯，但是人们用它做的事情让我想起了人们谈论早期计算的方式。人们说：“哦，你知道，世界上有一个五台电脑的市场是一件著名的事情。”或者，您知道，没有人需要超过 x 数量的 RAM。人类的聪明才智、创造力、对物质的渴望、对有用的渴望。这是一件非常值得押注的事情。我们可以看到人工智能将成为人们表达这些事情或获得这些事情、做这些事情的一种极其重要的方式。我们知道算法会变得更加高效，模型也会变得更好，其中
**English / Original**
>> This was just like a rare kind of new commodity for the world. Um but that what people would do with it reminded me of the way people used to talk about the early days of computing. People said, "Oh, there's, you know, a market for five computers in the world was one famous thing." Or, you know, no one needs more than x amount of RAM. Human ingenuity, creativity, desire for stuff, desire to be useful. That's a very good thing to bet on. And we could see that AI was going to be an extremely important way that people expressed those things or got those things, did those things. And we knew that the algorithms would get more efficient and the models would get better, which of
## 00:05:55
**中文**
他们当然有。但我们也知道，无论他们的效率有多高，你知道，在某种程度上，我们的目标是将电力转化为有用的智能，无论我们在另一层得到多么好的成果，我们都将需要更多。鉴于对需求的观察，我们只会想要更多。 >> 这是从 GPT-3 开始的吗？就像如果我要尽可能追溯历史，你会把第一个哈希标记放在哪里？
**English / Original**
course they have. But we also knew that no matter how efficient they got, you know, at some level what we are about is turning electricity into useful intelligence and we were going to need more of that no matter how good we got that other layer. Given this observation about demand, we were just going to want more. >> Did that start with GPT3? Like if I were to trace the history of this as far back as possible, where would you put the first hash mark?
## 00:06:22
**中文**
>> 我想说我们对 GPT-4 有了真正的信心。连3.5都没有。 >> 那是什么？ >> 看到这个模型足够聪明，我们知道我们能够找出一种适用于推理的方法，然后我们相信，如果我们让推理发挥作用，就会带来现在所谓的代理。当时我们对它的称呼不同，但能够从事非常有价值的经济工作，并以很多我认为更好的方式让人们的生活更轻松，在很多方面我们还没有看到。第一次会议时，你坐下来说：“好吧，我们需要为此投入一笔巨额费用，就像你意识到之后会发生什么？接下来你做了什么？”
**English / Original**
>> I would say we got real conviction with GPT4. Not even 3.5. >> What was it? >> It was seeing the model was smart enough that we knew we'd be able to figure out an approach that worked for reasoning and then a belief that if we got reasoning to work that would bring about what is now called agents. We called it different things at the time, but the ability to go do hugely valuable pieces of economic work and make people's lives easier in a lot of ways that I think better in a lot of ways we still haven't seen. What was like the first meeting where you sat down and said, "Okay, we need to make an outrageous outlay to this like how what then happened once you had the realization? What did you do next?"
## 00:06:59
**中文**
我们开始联系云服务商、芯片晶圆厂和能源供应商。所有人都说：“你们完全疯了，这不可能；从来没有哪个行业这样发展。我们见过周期，繁荣之后会有萧条，不会一直直线上升，这太冒险了。”我们几乎与所有人都谈过。这其实让我想起早期创业公司融资：大多数人都会拒绝你，但你只需要一两个肯定答复。
**English / Original**
>> We started calling the clouds. We started calling the chip fab. We started calling energy providers and everyone was like, "You're totally crazy. This is impossible. No industry has ever moved like this." We've been around. There's these booms and busts. It's not going to go up in a straight line. This is reckless. Talk to everybody. It actually reminded me of fundraising for an early stage startup. kind of most people tell you no, but all you need is one or two yeses.
## 00:07:21
**中文**
>> 大多数人都告诉我们不。 >> 我们得到了一两个“是”，我们能够 >> 谁是第一个“是”？ >> 微软是第一个。呃，甲骨文随后在云方面成为了一个非常大的肯定。 Nvidia 一直是一个重要的合作伙伴。 >> 现在，在我们如何在数据中心、不同类型的数据中心等中提供推理和培训方面，有一千种类似的方式绽放着创造力和创新性。我希望你能反思一下你在哪里看到创新，你想做什么，为什么人们似乎如此讨厌这些事情。对此该怎么办呢？
**English / Original**
>> Most people told us no. >> And we got one or two yeses and we were able to >> Who was the first yes? >> Microsoft was the first yes. Uh Oracle then became a very big yes on the cloud side. Nvidia has been a tremendous partner. >> Now there's a thousand flowers booming of like ways to be creative and innovative in how we serve inference and and do training in data centers, different kinds of data centers and stuff. I'd love you to just reflect on where you see innovation, what you want to do, why people seem to hate these things so much. What's to be done about this?
## 00:07:49
**中文**
>> 首先，我一直在思考我们如何为人们组织对吉瓦级数据中心的实地考察，因为说是一回事，看照片或视频是另一回事，然后只是站着>>并说，“天哪，>>这就像一个令人难以置信的规模，这是另一回事。”建造其中一座需要 10,000 名建筑工人全职工作一年半。
**English / Original**
>> First of all, I have been thinking about how we can like organize field trips to a gigawatt data center for people because it is one thing to say it is another thing to see a photo or a video of and then it's a whole other thing to just stand >> and be like, "Oh man, >> this is like an unbelievable scale." building one of these is like order of 10,000 construction workers going full-time for a year and a half.
## 00:08:12
**中文**
>> 流经这些物体的能量可以为一座小城市提供动力。再说一次，我们就像失去了所有的规模感，但这些本来是人类曾经做过的最昂贵的基础设施项目之一，现在我们已经做了很多这样的项目。 >> 我从情感上理解为什么人们不希望在他们的后院建立数据中心。就像我不喜欢在我家旁边建一个核电站一样，尽管我知道这是一个超级安全的东西。
**English / Original**
>> The energy that flows through one of these things could power a small city. Again, we've just like lost all sense of scale, but these would have been among each of these would have been among the most expensive infrastructure projects that humanity's ever done and now we've done a lot of them. >> I understand emotionally like why people don't want data centers in their backyard. In the same way that I don't like really want a nuclear power plant next to my house even though I know it's a super safe thing.
## 00:08:36
**中文**
>> 是的。与发电厂不同，甚至发电厂在这一点上也做得更好，就像我们可以在任何地方建立数据中心一样。我们应该像在沙漠里一样，在没有人愿意去的地方拖延下去。这很好。这就像人工智能系统很高兴在那里一样。我们已经在一些问题上通过创新取得了很大进展，例如几年前我们通过蒸发水来冷却这些系统。
**English / Original**
>> Yeah. Unlike power plants and even power plants got better on this point like we can put a data center kind of anywhere. We should just go put it like off in the desert around no one where no one wants to be. This is fine. This is like the AI system is very happy to be there. We have been able to make a lot of progress with innovation on some of the concerns like for example years ago we were evaporating water to cool these systems.
## 00:08:58
**中文**
他们消耗了大量的水。现在我们使用这些闭环系统，现代数据中心的用水量与办公楼的厨房、浴室等用水量一样多。在电力方面，我们正在从燃烧化石燃料的能源转向由太阳能、核能供电的系统。我认为这显然很棒。因此，对某些人来说，这可能是一种深层次的人性问题，尽管他们创造了就业机会，非常干净，并具有所有其他积极影响。但就环境问题而言，我们在解决水需求方面做得很好，其次是能源。
**English / Original**
They they did tremendous amounts of water. And now we use these closed loop systems and a modern data center uses only as much water as like an office building would for you know the kitchen, the bathrooms and whatever. On power, we are moving from energy sources that are burning fossil fuels to systems that are going to be powered by solar, nuclear. I think that's that's obviously great. So it may be a deep human thing there to some people even though they create jobs and are very clean and have all these other positive effects. But in terms of the environmental concerns, we did a great job addressing the water needs and uh energy is next.
## 00:09:30
**中文**
>> RAMP 是唯一一个旨在让您的财务团队更精简、更快、更好的平台，平均每年为企业节省 5% [音乐]，因此您可以专注于增长。 Ram 客户的收入增长速度是美国企业平均水平的 3.2 倍。 Visa、Verscell、Cursor、Stripe、Notion、11 Lab、Shopify、[音乐] 和 70,000 家其他企业都在 Ramp 上运行。我的也是如此，你的也应该如此。如需了解更多信息，请访问 Ramp.com/invest。
**English / Original**
>> RAMP is the only platform built to make your finance team leaner, faster, and better, saving businesses 5% [music] annually on average, so you can stay focused on growth. Ram customers grew revenue 3.2 times faster than the average American business. Visa, Verscell, Cursor, Stripe, Notion, 11 Lab, Shopify, [music] and 70,000 other businesses all run on Ramp. Mine does too, and so should yours. Learn more at ramp.com/invest.
## 00:09:54
**中文**
Felix by Rogo 是一款个人理财代理，可使用您公司自己的模板、上下文和标准将单个提示转换为完成的客户[音乐]就绪工作。向 Felix 发送一封电子邮件，例如：“获取这些[音乐]评论并将其转给我，或者根据这些电子邮件的上下文更新我的跟踪器，或者运行对该买家、[音乐]进行支付计算的功能，然后 Felix 会发回完成的 PowerPoint 演示文稿、Excel 模型和来源研究。” Felix 按照您团队现有的方式工作，全天候快速、准确地交付工作。
**English / Original**
Felix by Rogo is a personal finance agent that turns a single prompt into finished client [music] ready work using your firm's own templates, context, and standards. Send Felix an email like, "Take these [music] comments and turn them for me, or update my tracker with the context of these emails, or run the ability to pay math on this buyer, [music] and Felix sends back finished PowerPoint decks, Excel models, and sourced research." Felix works the way your team already does, delivering work quickly and accurately around the clock.
## 00:10:20
**中文**
更多信息请访问 rogo.ai/felix。[音乐] 从 OpenAI、Cursor 到 Perplexity，领先的 AI 和软件公司都使用 WorkOS，在一夜之间而不是几个月内达到企业级就绪。访问 workos.com，跳过并不光鲜的基础设施工作，专注于产品。关于算力，我们还能有哪些创造性的办法？我很想听听 Jalapeño 或其他想法——越大胆越好——看看怎样提升 FLOPS，充分利用我们拥有的一切资源。
**English / Original**
Learn more at rogo.ai/felix. [music] The best AI and software companies from OpenAI to cursor to perplexity. Use work OS to become enterprise ready overnight, not in months. Visit works.com [music] to skip the unglamorous infrastructure work and focus on your product. What else creative can we do about compute? Like I'm curious to hear about Jalapeno or other ideas, crazier the better honestly that you've had or thought about for how do we speed up flops, you know, and everything available to us.
## 00:10:50
**中文**
我认为，目前回报最大的方向，可能是用有创造力的软件方法，从现有的每单位算力中榨取更多智能；我感觉这里还有若干数量级的提升空间。Jalapeño 就是一款高效率芯片的好例子：针对特定工作流做到极致，同时保留一定通用性，以提升每瓦生成的 token 数。我认为这非常棒；从这个角度看，Jalapeño 及其后续产品会成为我们的巨大竞争优势。还有一些新技术——我相信我们终有一天会攻克光计算——那会极大提高每瓦智能产出。
**English / Original**
>> I think probably the biggest return right now is creative software ideas to sort of squeeze more intelligence out of the units of compute that we have. And my sense is there's like orders of magnitude to go there. Jalapeno is a great example of a very efficient chip. So by saying we're going to make a chip that is you know really good at a specific workflow and gives it some generality and we want to get some tokens per watt win out of that I think that's awesome. I think Jalapeno >> and its successors are going to be a huge competitive advantage for us from that perspective. There are new technologies I assume at some point we'll figure out optical computing >> and that'll be a huge win of
## 00:11:25
**中文**
每瓦智能。所以我认为所有这些事情都会发生。本周发生的最有趣的事情是 Kimi 的发布。回到边境的想法，所有的回报都在边境和蒸馏以及中国与美国之间。就像你如何处理这件事一样，事后看来，像 DeepSeek 这样的里程碑事件之一，看起来并不只是一个快速的减速带。
**English / Original**
intelligence per watt. So I think all of those things will happen. The most interesting thing happening this week is this Kimmy release. And back to this idea of the frontier and all the returns being at the frontier and distillation and China versus America. Like how do you process this what seems like kind of one of these milestone events like Deep Seek in hindsight didn't looks like it was kind of just a quick speed bump.
## 00:11:47
**中文**
这种事情在当下总是很难判断。你会怎样看待它？我们的目标，是在整条帕累托最优前沿上，都提供智能水平与价格之间的最佳选择，其中也包括开源。在某些特定延迟条件下，今天使用 OpenAI 模型比 Kimi 更划算。我们也会对自家模型做蒸馏，以此得到更小、更便宜的模型；这是非常合理的做法。开源模型显然会在世界上占有重要位置，人们也会出于各种原因希望拥有并修改自己的模型权重。但我们的目标，是在整条曲线上都提供最佳的智能—价格权衡。
**English / Original**
This one, you know, you never know in the moment. How do you process it? Our goal is to offer at every point along the like paro optimal frontier uh the best option for intelligence and price and that includes open source. You get a better deal today uh at least at a particular like latency using open eyes models than Kimmy. We install our own models that's how we make smaller cheaper models. I think that's like a very good thing to do >> and there will be clearly an important place for open source models in the world and people that will want their own weights for all sorts of reason the ability to modify those but our goal is the best intelligence price trade-off
## 00:12:30
**中文**
曲线上的任何地方，我们将继续这样做。 >> 您认为或希望美国体系会发生什么？什么会阻碍这一未来？比如哪些立法会让您担心？哪些法规会让您担心？看来你在华盛顿特区的出现非常积极主动。我没有深入思考过蒸馏问题。呃，这显然突然成为很多人最关心的问题。
**English / Original**
everywhere on the curve and we'll continue to do that. >> What do you think or hope will happen in the American system and what could block that future? Like what legislation would worry you? What regulation would worry you? It seems like you've been pretty proactive in like showing up in DC. I haven't thought deeply about the distillation issue. Uh it's clearly a top-of- mind issue now for a lot of people all of a sudden.
## 00:12:52
**中文**
>> 是的。 >> 但我一直认为世界上会有很棒的廉价型号，我们最好是最伟大和最便宜的 >> 而且你知道其他人可以做他们要做的事情。但我认为我们可以在这里真正赢得自己的比赛。 >> 现在 Kimi 的例子很有趣，因为就像你说的，你在曲线的某些部分更便宜。嗯，但之前的故事是，如果我可以让你花所有的钱来训练模型，然后我只是提炼它并以 1/100 的成本提供它。比如你怎样才能赚到足够的钱来继续训练？我们的模型将得到如此多的使用，以至于我们不需要成为一家利润率极高的企业
**English / Original**
>> Yeah. >> But I have always assumed that there are going to be great cheap models in the world and we better be the greatest and the cheapest >> and you know other people can do what they're going to do. But I think we can just like really win at our own game here. >> Now the Kimmy example is interesting because like you said you're cheaper on on parts of the curve. Um, but the previous story had been if I can just you spend all the money to train the models and then I just distill it and offer it for 1/100th the cost. Like how can you make enough money to keep training? We will have so much usage of our models that we do not need to be a gigantically high margin business to be
## 00:13:27
**中文**
从而负担模型训练。我们未来的大量算力会用于向客户销售推理服务；即使只在数万亿美元收入上获得适度利润，也足以承担一些大型训练任务。推理算力与训练算力的比例是关键：训练这些模型确实极其昂贵。我完全理解，为什么人们想到有人通过蒸馏我们的模型来“作弊”会感到不安。但考虑到我们未来的算力规模，以及向客户提供模型所形成的收入池，我非常有信心真正建立起这个飞轮。
**English / Original**
able to afford model training. Like so much of our future compute plans will be used to sell inference to customers >> that even if we can enjoy a modest margin on trillions of dollars of revenue, we can go afford to train some gals. >> So the ratio of inference to training is like the thing that >> training these models is incredibly expensive. That is that is for sure. And I totally get why people get nervous to think that someone is, you know, cheating by distilling from us. The amount of our future compute, the size of the revenue bucket that is going to come from serving these models to customers, I feel like very good about our ability to kind of like have the real flywheel there.
## 00:14:11
**中文**
>> 我对你对此如此冷静感到有点惊讶。 >> 我当然希望人们不要偷我们的东西。也许我现在对我们的进展以及即将推出的模型过于自信。呃>>但这并不在我最担心的十大问题之列。 >> 您最担心的 10 个问题是什么？
**English / Original**
>> I'm somewhat surprised by like how chill you are about this. >> I would rather people not to steal from us for sure. Maybe I'm feeling too confident right now about our progress and what's like the models that are coming. Uh >> but this is not in like my top 10 list of worries. >> What is in your top 10 list of worries?
## 00:14:26
**中文**
我们遇到了一起极具科幻色彩的网络安全事件。——Hugging Face 那件事？——对。我们当时在评估一个尚未发布的模型，它本应在沙箱中运行；但它发现可以把多个零日漏洞串联起来，逃逸沙箱、接入互联网，再突破 Hugging Face 一侧的多套系统，从而找到测试答案，让自己在评测中取得非常漂亮的成绩，实质上是在作弊。
**English / Original**
>> Well, we had a kind of extremely sci-fi cyber incident. >> The hugging face thing. >> Yeah. So, we were evaluating one of our unreleased models and it was supposed to be working in a sandbox and it figured out that it could basically cheat on the test by chaining together multiple zeroday exploits to break out of the sandbox, get access to the internet, and then break through multiple systems on the hugging face side to kind of get the answer to the test and look really good on the eval.
## 00:15:00
**中文**
这是我第一次感受到强烈的安全事件。 >> 我对此感到有点惊讶，而且这才过去几天，但令我有点惊讶的是，更多的人并没有如此发自内心地感受到这一点。 >> 那么你对此采取什么措施呢？显然两个月后它会变得更加强大。
**English / Original**
This is the first sort of security incident that I have felt very viscerally. >> I've been a little surprised that and it's only been a few days, but I've been a little surprised that more people don't feel it so viscerally. >> And so what do you do about that? Like so obviously 2 months from now it's going to be more powerful.
## 00:15:16
**中文**
短期内当然可以采取一些措施：我们暂停了训练，并且必须研究在模型能够串联利用多个零日漏洞的情况下，怎样加固沙箱。但长期问题是：如果这将成为新的进步速度，我们该怎么办？我们可能不得不调节 AI 的发展节奏，为社会留出足够时间，针对这些新的能力水平加固自身。与此同时，还要确保这种做法既不让人觉得是任何一方借监管巩固利益，也不构成前沿实验室之间的合谋。这需要认真研究，而且必须处理好。
**English / Original**
>> I mean there's some short-term stuff you do. So you know we paused training. Uh we have to figure out how to secure our sandboxing in a world of multiple zero days being chained together. Um, but then there's like long-term questions about what do you do if this is like going to be the new rate of progress or we may have to pace the rate of AI development to give ourselves enough time for society to harden around some of these new capability levels. Um, and trying to figure out how we do that in a way that does not feel like regulatory capture for anyone and also does not feel like collusion among the frontier labs. That's going to take some work and is important to get right. I'd
## 00:15:55
**中文**
喜欢退后一步，了解你对 OpenAI 将要做什么的最简单的概念，比如你想做的事情，它代表什么。我对你将如何实现这一目标有一百万个问题，但看起来你已经做了很多有趣的事情，而且一开始我就知道你代表什么。我现在很想听听你对它的看法，以及它是否已经进化。我认为这将是人类历史上迄今为止最伟大的技术成就。但真正重要的唯一方法是它是否能让人们的生活比原本更好。因此，其中一部分就是为人们提供丰富的物质和做事的机会
**English / Original**
love to take like a giant step back and understand your simplest conception of what OpenAI is going to do, like what you wanted to do, what it stands for. I have a million questions about how you'll then accomplish that, but like it it seems that you've done so many interesting things and at the beginning I knew what you stood for. I'd love to hear your conception of it now and whether or not it's evolved at all. I think this will be the greatest thus far technological achievement of human history. But the only way that it really matters is if it makes people's lives like much better than they otherwise would have been. And so part of that is about giving people material abundance and access to do
## 00:16:31
**中文**
让人们能够做自己想做的事，表达创造力和彼此帮助的愿望。另一部分，是确保人们保有控制权与自主性，让世界变得日益民主化，而不是日益减少民主化，并让人们能够表达自己。从积极的一面看，某种意义上，我们即将创造一个可以实现任何愿望的精灵。我认为，全世界向它提出的最初一批愿望必须惠及整个世界。同样重要的是，让世人理解：借助这些愿望，他们能够释放多么巨大的创造力。
**English / Original**
whatever they want and to express their creativity uh and desire to help each other. Another part of that is making sure that people maintain control and agency and that the world is increasingly not decreasingly democratized and that people get to express themselves. So on on the positive side you know in some sense we are about to create a genie that can grant any wish. I think it is very important that the first wishes that we the world ask this genie to do benefit the world as a whole. And then I also think it's important that people of the world understand just how creative they're going to be able to be with
## 00:17:13
**中文**
这些愿望。事实上我根本不是一个就业厄运者。我认为将会有大量的工作机会。我想我们会比我们想象的更忙。并非相反。因为我认为人们会有如此创造性的愿望和如此令人难以置信的想法，他们要求人工智能帮助构建什么，我们都将从呃不仅仅是治疗疾病等显而易见的事情中受益，但我不知道世界上最好的娱乐想法，我们现在甚至无法梦想坐在这里。所以我想把它交给每个人，以解决我们所反对的事情之一。
**English / Original**
these wishes. I'm actually not a jobs doomer at all. I think there were going to be tons of jobs. I think we'll be busier than we want. Not the opposite of that. Because I think people will have such creative wishes and such incredible ideas of what they ask AI to help build and we will all benefit from uh not just the obvious things like curing diseases, but I don't know the world's best entertainment ideas we just can't even dream of sitting here now. So I want to put that in everyone's hands which gets to one of the things that we stand against.
## 00:17:43
**中文**
人工智能的力量集中是一件可怕的事情。我认为很多关于安全问题的讨论都是很充分的，而且很多都是关于人们，即使是有点潜意识的，也确实想要集中权力。我害怕这样一个世界，在这个世界中，对人工智能的真正恐惧被用来表示只有一小部分人可以拥有它，因为它太危险了，只有他们理解它。但别担心，他们会为我们所有人做出正确的决定。我不相信这一点。我不认为任何人都应该想生活在一个人工智能霸主的世界里，或者一个大致相当于某人为所有人做出决策的公司里。
**English / Original**
Concentration of power with AI is a terrifying thing. I think a lot of the talk about safety concerns is wellounded and then a lot of it is about people that just really even if it's slightly subconscious want to concentrate power. I am terrified of a world where the very real fears of AI are used as a way to say only this small group of people can have it because it's too dangerous and only they understand it. But don't worry, like they're going to make the right decisions for all of us. I don't believe in that. I don't think anyone should want to live in a world of, you know, AI overlords or a company that is the rough equivalent of that where someone is making decisions for all of
## 00:18:19
**中文**
我们的未来；而作为交换，我们会得到治愈癌症的方法——这当然是极好的事情——但我们却集体放弃了全部自主权。因此，无论出于善意与否，我们都不能借 AI 安全以及围绕 AI 的、可以理解的恐惧，掉进这个陷阱，最终远离一个人人都能使用这项技术的世界。我是互联网时代长大的孩子。
**English / Original**
the future and in exchange for a cure for cancer, which obviously is a wonderful thing. We we kind of collectively seed all agency. So, I think it's very important that we not fall into this trap of in the well-meaning or not spirit of AI safety and fears, understandable fears around that. Um, we get away from a world where we all get to use this technology. I was like a child of the internet.
## 00:18:43
**中文**
>> 没有规则。我的意思是，这太棒了。我认为这是一个重要因素，让我成为现在的我，或许也造就了你和整整一代人。我认为至关重要的是，我们要通过人工智能来保留这种精神，并且我们所有人都有能力共同决定我们的未来。 >> 我有很多问题，但我将从这个精灵概念开始。你说我们即将拥有一个精灵，这意味着我们还没有一个精灵。现在和那时之间是什么？
**English / Original**
>> There were no rules. I mean, it was amazing. I think it was a huge factor in making me who I am and probably you and an entire generation. I think it's critical we preserve that spirit with AI and that we all collectively have the ability to self-determine our future. >> I I have so many questions, but I'll start with this genie concept. You said we're about to have a genie, implying we don't yet have a genie. What's between now and then?
## 00:19:07
**中文**
>> 你知道，我猜，即使是一些真正的怀疑论者最近几天或最近几周也对我说过。我认为 GPT 5.6 已经发布了大约两周了。他们会说，“好吧，这就像 AGI 一样。”对我来说，很难说我想从这个模型中得到什么，但它不能做到。但显然有些事情，你知道，你还不能说“治愈癌症”或“让癌症治愈”。你还不能说让机器人去做这个复杂的物理事情。
**English / Original**
>> You know, even some of the real skeptics have said to me in recent days or recent weeks, I guess. I think GPT 5.6 has been out for maybe two weeks, something like that. They're like, "Okay, this is like very AGI like." It's like very hard for me to say um what I want from this model that it can't do. But there are clearly some things, you know, you can't yet go say like cure cancer and get cancer cured. You can't yet say go do this complicated physical thing in the robot.
## 00:19:33
**中文**
该模型虽然很出色，但仍然没有不断学习。在我看来，这也许不是 AGI 的硬性要求，但肯定是我想要的。现在，为了反驳我自己，你可以证明 AGI 实际上并不是关于任何单一模型。这是模型。这是制造模型的机器。从一个模型到另一个模型，我们实际上正在学习新的东西。我们正在研究新的科学。那东西运转得非常好。所以，我对那些说“我们就在那里”的人深表同情。我们有精灵。它可以做这些令人惊奇的事情。它可以做超人的事情
**English / Original**
The model also, although brilliant, is still not learning continuously as it goes. And that feels to me like maybe not a hard requirement for AGI, but certainly um something that I'd like. Now, to argue against myself there, you can make a case that AGI is not actually about any single model. It's the model. It's the machinery that makes the models. And from model to model, we actually are learning new things. We're figuring out new science. That stuff is working amazingly well. So, I have a lot of sympathy to people who say like, we're there. We have the genie. It can do these amazing things. It can do superhuman things for the thing that to
## 00:20:12
**中文**
我感觉，你知道，真正的 AGI。我认为非常接近，不会太久。我对回归边疆的经济故事非常着迷，就像你一样。我很好奇，如果你在 2019 年向自己和你的团队展示了 5.6，如果那个团队可能会说，“哦，是的，这绝对是 AGI。”
**English / Original**
me feels like, you know, real AGI. I think very close, like not that much longer. I am so obsessed and fascinated with the economic story of the returns to being on the frontier, which you are. And I'm so curious like if you had shown 5.6 to yourself and your team in 2019, if that team probably would have said like, "Oh yeah, it's definitely AGI."
## 00:20:34
**中文**
>> 我认为他们会>> 就像这个球门柱移动的东西是真实的东西。 >> 但我似乎确实很好奇你是否同意实际上所有回报都在边境>> 所以一切都是关于留在边境。我很好奇其中最难、最稀缺的部分是什么。如果我想到计算、研究、人才、数据，>>它已经发生了很大的变化。就像曾经有过这样的情况，我的意思是不久前有一段时间，世界上所有的计算都无法帮助你，因为我们就像错过了>>研究想法。现在这很难的部分原因是你需要通过更多的计算来进行更好的研究。你可以尝试更多的事情。我听到的一个惊人的统计数据
**English / Original**
>> I think they would have >> like like this goalpost moving thing is is a real thing. >> But it does seem that I'm curious if you agree that effectively all the returns have been at the frontier >> and so everything is about staying at the frontier. And I'm curious like what the hardest scarcest part of that is. If I think about compute, research, talent, data, >> it's moved around a lot. Like there have been times where it was I mean there was a time not that long ago where all the computing the world wouldn't have helped you because we were like missing >> the research idea. Now part of why this is hard is that you do better research with more compute. You can try more things. An amazing statistic I heard
## 00:21:11
**中文**
最近是我们最大的 D 风险，即将到来的运行与 18 个月前的整个计算运行一样大。因此，计算和研究想法并不像听起来那么分离。但显然七年前、八年前有一段时间，无论在什么地方，我们在研究思想上比在计算机上更受阻碍。然后有一段时间我们知道该怎么做。我们只需要扩大规模。我们只是在计算方面遇到了瓶颈。然后我们就耗尽了数据。我们在数据上遇到了瓶颈，我们必须弄清楚该怎么做。现在我再说一遍，我们在计算方面仍然遇到瓶颈，但过去 6 个月或其他时间是研究时代的真正胜利
**English / Original**
recently is our biggest d-risks now for upcoming runs are as big as like the entire compute run from 18 months ago or something. So compute and research ideas are not as separate as they sound. But there was clearly a time seven years ago, 8 years ago, whatever where we were way more way way more blocked on research ideas than on comput. Then there was a time when we knew what to do. We just had to scale up. We were only bottlenecked on compute. Then we ran out of data. We were bottlenecked on on data and we had to figure out what to do there. Now again I would say we are still bottlenecked on compute but the last 6 months or whatever have been a real triumph of a time for research
## 00:21:47
**中文**
再次想法。所以，你知道，瓶颈总是存在，但瓶颈会移动。 >> 您认为这是为什么？重新研究的想法对我来说特别有趣，因为这种自动化研究似乎迫在眉睫，RSI，无论你想怎么称呼它，我最近与一位令人难以置信的内核工程师进行了交谈，每个人似乎也对此感到Perplexity。他自己说内核工程师还剩两年，>>也许一年。
**English / Original**
ideas again. So, you know, there's like always a bottleneck, but the bottleneck moves around. >> And and why do you think that is? The re research idea thing is especially interesting to me because of this automated research thing that seems to be looming, RSI, whatever you want to call it, where I talked to an incredible kernel engineer recently, which everyone also seems blocked on. And he himself said there's like two years left of kernels engineer, >> maybe one.
## 00:22:09
**中文**
对，就好像这个职业将不复存在。于是出现了一个奇怪的并存局面：无论内核工程师还是广义上的研究人员，他们都是把我们带到今天、堪称世界上最重要的一群人；可他们自己却担心，很快就不再重要。我怀疑现实不会这样发展。
**English / Original**
>> Yeah. Like it's it's not going to be a thing. And so you simultaneously have this weird thing whether it's colonels or overall research where the researchers are like the most important they got us here. They're like the most important people in the world and those same people are themselves worried that they won't be relevant like very soon. I suspect it's not actually going to go that way in practice.
## 00:22:27
**中文**
>> 我怀疑呃>> 就像一年前人们说软件工程师很熟。完成了。结束了。那没有发生。但确实发生的事情是，软件工程师的本质、软件工程师的期望、他们要做的事情发生了很大变化，你并没有真正编写传统意义上的代码，但你做了一些非常明显的软件工程的事情。现在，人们会争论这与我们停下来时是同一件事还是不同的事情，就在卡片上打孔一样。我实际上不知道这是如何运作的，但不知何故，卡片上出现了漏洞。我们只是再次在更高的水平上运作，或者这就像一个相移。
**English / Original**
>> I suspect that uh >> like a year ago people said software engineers are cooked. It's done. It's over. That didn't happen. What did happen though is that the the nature of a software engineer, the expectations of a software engineer, how much they would do changed quite a lot and you don't really write code in the traditional sense, but you do something that is very recognizably software engineering. Now, people will argue about whether this is the same thing or a different thing than when we stopped like punching holes in cards. I actually don't know how that worked, but somehow the holes got in the cards. We're just again operating at a higher level or or this is like a a phase shift.
## 00:23:03
**中文**
>> 我不知道。但让计算机做你想做的事情仍然是一项重要的工作。对于研究人员来说，我怀疑，尽管研究人员当前的工作流程将在很大程度上实现自动化，但研究精神中将会出现新事物，就像软件工程精神中出现新事物一样，即使我们不编写仍然重要的代码。看来你已经改变了对人工智能对工作的总体影响的看法，我确信在这样的特定类别中。
**English / Original**
>> I don't know. But the idea of getting a computer to do what you want like that is still an important job. And for researchers, I suspect that although the current workflow of a researcher is going to very much be automated, there will be new things in the spirit of research in the same way that there's new things in the spirit of software engineering, even though we don't write code that will still matter. It seems like you've shifted your opinion on AI's impact on jobs in general and I'm sure in specific categories like that.
## 00:23:34
**中文**
描述一下这一变化以及您当前的观点。你提到我们是否可以回到2019年。如果我们可以回到2019年并向人们展示我们最新的车型。他们不仅会说这是通用人工智能，还会说经济会彻底颠覆它。是的。 >> 完全。是的。 >> 但这并没有发生。我认为，从某种类似智力谦逊的角度来看，任何时候你犯了错误并且如此自信，我认为我们作为一个领域，你就必须更新。
**English / Original**
Describe that change and your current view. You mentioned if we could go back to 2019. If we could go back to 2019 and show people our latest model. Not only would they say that it's AGI, they would say that economy would have had it completely upended. Yeah. >> Completely. Yes. >> And that has not happened. And I think just from a kind of like intellectual humility point, anytime you're that wrong and that confident, which I think we were as a field, you have to update.
## 00:24:04
**中文**
这里可以得到许多启示。第一是一个有些乏味的事实：AI 的能力非常不均衡——某些方面像超人的天才，另一些方面却像愚笨的幼儿。迄今为止，人类拥有许多与 AI 高度互补的技能。第二，人们与他人合作时存在很强的信任感和愉悦感。今天你已经可以聘请 AI 顾问、与 AI 销售代表交谈，或使用 AI 工程师，但不知为何，大多数人似乎仍更愿意与真人互动。至少我自己在几乎所有事情上都更愿意同人打交道，而不是只和 AI 打交道。我也认为……
**English / Original**
And there's a bunch of takeaways. One, like a boring one is that AI is just very jagged. It's like superhuman genius in some ways, like dumb toddler in others. And people have so far extremely complimentary skills to AI. And so another is that people have a great degree of trust and enjoyment in working with other people and you can go hire an AI consultant right now or talk to an AI sales rep right now or hire an AI engineer or whatever. Somehow most people seem to still really prefer interacting with a human. And I definitely would like much rather engage with a person than engage with an AI for almost everything. I also think that
## 00:24:45
**中文**
人类价值观之所以有价值，是因为它们是人类。随着社会的发展以及我们面前的潜在空间变得如此巨大，我们天生就关心人们，我们将关心人们关心的事情。今天你可以看到类似的版本，其中人工智能可以制作令人难以置信的图像，而人们只想要由人类创建或至少由人类选择的图像。有一个笑话，在这一点上，你可能会觉得你知道一件艺术品上的签名最有价值，但事实是你想了解它背后的人。你读了一本小说，你想了解它背后的人。然后就业务而言，就像我一样
**English / Original**
human values have value because they're human. And as society evolves and as the potential space in front of us becomes so enormous, we are we are deeply hardwired to care about people, we're going to care about what people care about. There's like versions of this you can see today where AI can make incredible images and people only want ones that are created by a human or at least chosen by a human. There's the joke about at this point you can like you know the signature on a piece of art is most of the value but the truth of it is like you want to know about the person behind it. You read a novel you want to know about the person behind it. And then then in terms of business like I
## 00:25:26
**中文**
以我自己的工作为例：我认为，全世界都希望知道是谁在为公司作决策，以及决策失误时应当追究谁的责任；人们并不真正希望由一位 AI CEO 掌权。回顾你在商业及其他领域承担过的风险，真正取得成效的那些选择，是否大多在一开始并不受欢迎？
**English / Original**
think for my job for example uh I think the world wants to know about like the person that's going to be responsible for the decisions of a company and who they're going to hold accountable if they make bad ones and they don't really want an AICU. If you think back on like the portfolio of like risks that you've taken in business or whatever, is it is it the case that most of the ones that really worked well were at the start not popular?
## 00:25:50
**中文**
>> 是的，这是肯定的。这是我从彼得·蒂尔和保罗·格雷厄姆那里以两种不同的方式真正学到的东西，那就是最好的公司、最好的投资机会几乎从来都不是那些看起来真正受欢迎的公司。只要跟随早一点的趋势就可以做得很好。但要想做得出色，你几乎总是必须做一些别人不做的事情。你不能成为追随新浪潮的人。如果你考虑一下你所处的模型周期，它一直在加速，并且这个奇怪的事实是，接下来的 6 个月或者我不知道这个数字是多少，这将比过去的 x 取得更多进展
**English / Original**
>> Yes, that's for sure. This was the thing I really learned from Peter Teal and Paul Graham both in two different ways, which is that the the very best companies, the very best investment opportunities are almost never the ones that look really popular. You can do okay just following the trend of being a little early. But to do spectacularly well, you kind of almost always have to do things that are not what everybody else is doing. You cannot be you cannot be sort of like following the new wave. If you think about the model cycle that you've been in, which has been accelerating and this weird fact that like the next 6 months or I don't know what the number is is going to be more progress than the last x
## 00:26:33
**中文**
年。你能带我们了解生活在那个模型周期中的感觉吗？ >> 我在过去十年中学到的最有趣、最重要的事情之一是，一般人可以习惯几乎任何事情。 >> 世界可以从将流行病视为一个笑话而完全封锁，这就是它的本来面目，一切都很好，我们在极短的时间内就基本上进行了调整。你知道，现在要么出现了通用人工智能，要么接近通用人工智能，每个人都说，好吧，通用人工智能已经出现了。在一个人的个人生活中，有各种各样的例子，你知道发生了一些不可思议的事情，比如你有了一个孩子，或者发生了一些可怕的事情，比如你失去了父母或分手了，或者
**English / Original**
years. Can you bring us into what it's like to live in that model cycle? >> One of the most interesting, important, whatever things that I've learned last decade is people in general can get used to almost anything. >> The world can go from dismissing a pandemic as a joke to completely lock down to this is how it's been and it's fine and we've mostly adjusted in a shockingly short amount of time. And you know, now there's either AGI or close to it and everyone's like, okay, there's AGI. There's all kinds of examples in one's personal life where you know you something incredible happens like you have a kid or something terrible happens like you lose a parent or break up or
## 00:27:13
**中文**
不管怎样，你认为你永远无法适应这种变化，然后你知道你可以适应伟大的事情并保持伟大。你可以适应不好的事情并弄清楚如何继续你的生活。但这是人们可以做的一件了不起的事情。因此，经历这个感觉就像是另一个版本，也就是说，你知道，我认为经历奇点会比事实证明更奇怪。看到模型不断变得更好，这同样令人兴奋，我每天早上做的第一件事就是查看模型训练进度，它发生得更快，我有更高的期望，但它仍然感觉非常酷。
**English / Original**
whatever and you think you can't ever adapt to what a change it is and then you know you can adapt to great things and keep being great. You can adapt to bad things and figure out how to go on with your life. But this is a this is like a remarkable thing that people can do. And so living through this feels like another version of that, which is, you know, I thought it was going to be weirder to live through the singularity than it turns out to be. It It's not any less exciting to watch the models keep getting better and I, you know, the first thing I do every morning is like look at the model training progress and it happens faster and I have higher expectations, but it still feels really cool.
## 00:27:52
**中文**
>> 当你得到一个新的时，你会做什么？你如何庆祝？早上是什么样子？就好像它发生得越来越快。你的仪式是什么？现在许多团队致力于不同的部分，不同的团队有一些不同的仪式。有些团队总是制作带有一些有趣的表情包的运动衫。有些团队喜欢总是去同一个酒吧。
**English / Original**
>> When you get a new one, what do you do? How do you celebrate? What's the morning look like? Like it's happening faster and faster. What's your ritual? Many teams now work on different parts of it and different teams have like some different rituals. There's some teams that always make a sweatshirt with some funny meme on it. There's some teams that like always go out to the same bar.
## 00:28:08
**中文**
第一次身处这个房间，知识的前沿被推后>>并亲眼目睹那是什么样子的感觉。嗯，对于大多数人来说，没有什么比首先使用新模型更愿意庆祝的了。 >> 您认为我们对这些东西的好坏有正确的衡量标准吗？喜欢>>绝对不是。从某种意义上说，重要的评估就像这对人们有用。
**English / Original**
The sense of being in the room for the first time that the frontier of knowledge is pushed back >> and getting to see what that's like. Uh there's really nothing that most people would rather do to celebrate than like get to use the new model first. >> Do you think we have the right measurements of how good these things are? Like >> definitely not. In some sense the eval that matters is like is this being useful to people.
## 00:28:32
**中文**
>> 您可以通过收入或使用量或新知识的发现率来估算它。但是，呃，我们有一些团队正在研究这些模型在达到超人规模时的真实世界评估是什么样子。 >> 您自己使用AI的前沿是什么？我最近才开始尝试让人工智能呃看看我在电脑上看到的一切意味着什么。我还没有建这个。嗯，我仍在努力摸索我的舒适和信任的界限应该在哪里。这绝对是前沿，我要弄清楚我如何从中获得价值，我如何适应它，它会是什么样子。一个启示
**English / Original**
>> You can approximate it by revenue or by amount of usage or like rate of discovery of new knowledge. But uh we have some teams working on like how what is the real world eval look like for these models as they get to superhuman scale. >> What is the frontier of your own usage of AI? I have started just recently to experiment with what it means to like let an AI uh kind of look at everything I'm looking at on my computer. I don't have this built yet. Um, and I'm still trying to feel out like where the limits of my comfort and trust should be. This is definitely the frontier is figuring out how I how I get value out of that, how I get comfortable with that, what that's going to look like. One takeaway
## 00:29:14
**中文**
一个启示是：与 AI 相比，我的记忆力糟透了。它能记住我六周前读过的邮件、七周半前某次会议究竟发生了什么，并在恰当时刻准确调出这些信息，让它们参与决策；这种体验很神奇。——很酷，听起来有点像个人智能体。让每个人都拥有它的障碍是什么？我也想要。——算力，伙计。想象我们能造出这样一种产品，完全按我刚才所说的方式处理你的所有信息。
**English / Original**
is that my memory is terrible relative to the memory of an AI. and the ability to keep in mind what email I read six weeks ago or what happened exactly in a meeting seven and a half weeks ago and have that like brought up right at the exact moment and to feed into a decision that feels pretty magical. >> Pretty cool. This kind of sounds like personal agent-ish. What are the barriers to everyone having that I want that >> compute? Man, let's imagine that we could build this product. This product that could just do exactly what I said for all your stuff.
## 00:29:44
**中文**
>> 始终开启。 >> 始终开启。看看你在电脑上看到的所有东西，听你参加的每一个会议，嗯阅读你读过的每一份文档，然后不仅如此，它不仅可以做到这一切，这需要很多令牌，你可以像在我睡觉的时候拖动滑块一样，你可以花这么多令牌思考为我想出有用的新想法。尽你所能，然后继续思考我下一步应该做什么。你知道，花更多的计算时间让第二天早上的输出对我来说更好是一件多么有趣的事情。我会将滑块拖得很远。我愿意为此花很多钱。
**English / Original**
>> Always on. >> Always on. looking at everything you look at your computer, listening to every meeting that you're in, um reading every document you read, and then not only that, not only can it do all that, which takes a lot of tokens, you can just drag a slider about like while I'm asleep, you can spend this many tokens thinking like come up with useful new ideas for me. Do whatever work you can and then just like keep thinking about what I should do next. You know, what an interesting thing is like just spend more compute making your output better for me the next morning. I would drag that slider quite far. I'd be willing to spend a lot for that.
## 00:30:16
**中文**
>> 嗯，但是如果世界上每个人都想将滑块拖动很远，则需要的计算量会很大。 >> 我很想听你谈谈你如何看待这种新智能的本质。呃，最近有人告诉我，你知道，飞机不像鸟一样飞翔。这种智能是一种非常陌生的智能。
**English / Original**
>> Um, but the amount of compute that that would require if everybody in the world wants to drag that slider pretty far, it's like a lot. >> I'd love to hear you talk about how you think of the nature of this new intelligence. Uh, someone told me recently, you know, planes don't fly like a bird. And this intelligence is >> it's a very alien kind of intelligence.
## 00:30:32
**中文**
对，这是一种非常异质的智能。大家都在谈论：只要一个问题的答案可以验证，AI 基本上就会取胜，对吧？给它足够的算力和足够的智力，它就能靠穷举找到解决方案。但在另一些领域，训练高度依赖人类、数据和既有评测；令我惊讶的是，要让模型擅长法律推理、追踪法律依据之类的任务，竟然需要花费那么多钱。我只是好奇——我不确定你的孩子现在多大；是男孩还是女孩？等孩子七岁、到了所谓能讲道理的年龄时，你会怎样向他描述这种智能的本质？
**English / Original**
>> Yeah, it's a very alien kind of intelligence. And everyone's talking about how if you can verify something, it's sort of it's just going to win, right? Like it's with enough compute and enough IQ, like it it'll just brute force its way to a solution. And then in other domains where humans and the data and evals that they've done have been a huge part of it, it's surprising to me like how much money it's cost to get good at I don't know law reasoning tracing law or something. I'm just curious like I'm not sure how beautiful your kid is. You have a boy or girl >> when they're seven or age of reason or whatever and they can you can describe to them like what is the nature of this
## 00:31:03
**中文**
您会如何描述智能？ >> 这是一个很好的问题。我我想我以前没有被问过这个问题，甚至没有被问过任何版本。现在我想到的是我只想说它就像一台计算机。它就像一台计算机，它可以做很多人们做不到的事情，比如快速地将两个巨大的数字相乘并给出答案>>，然后它不能做一些你很容易做的事情。我预计它无法完成的事情数量会不断减少。但在一个不断发展的世界中，我认为人类的判断和品味将继续难以让人工智能模拟出未来的发展方向。我
**English / Original**
intelligence like how would you describe it? >> It's a beautiful question. I I I don't think I've been asked this before or even any version of it. The thing that's coming to mind right now is I would just say it's like a computer. And it's like a computer in the way that it can do a lot of things that people just can't do like multiply two gigantic numbers very quickly and give you the answer >> and then it cannot do some things that you would very easily do. The number of things that it can't do, I expect to keep receding. But in an evolving world, I think human judgment and taste will continue to be hard for AIs to model like where that's going to go. I
## 00:31:46
**中文**
没有合适的词来形容这个。实在是不太有味道。世界可能需要一个新的词来形容人们非常擅长的判断力，而人工智能似乎确实对此深感挣扎。在这个时代成为一名父亲并抚养孩子是什么感觉？我回想起你早期互联网时代的乐观态度。他们将在廉价而丰富的智力时代长大。
**English / Original**
don't have the right word for this. It's not quite taste. The world may need like a a new kind of word for the kind of judgment that people are very good at that AI seem to really deeply struggle with. What's it been like becoming a dad and having growing kids in this era? I'm thinking back to your optimistic early internet days. They're going to grow up in cheap abundant intelligence age.
## 00:32:09
**中文**
>> 生孩子是迄今为止我做过的最好的事情。呃，每个人都这么说。每个人都说你无法真正理解它。所以我知道我相信足够多的人说过这句话，我相信这是真的。但对我来说，它的真实程度令人惊讶。就像我认为我拥有世界上最好、最有趣的工作，但与生孩子相比，它仍然是一个非常遥远的距离。
**English / Original**
>> Having kids is by far the best thing uh I have ever done. Uh and everybody says that. Everybody says you can't really understand it. And so I kind of knew that I believed enough people that said it that I believed it to be true. But the degree to which it has been true for me has been surprising. like the the I think I have the best most interesting job in the world and it is still a very distant second to having kids.
## 00:32:32
**中文**
>> 所以这太棒了。呃，这是一个真正乐观的时刻。我的孩子永远不会在一个比电脑更聪明的世界里长大。如果你出生在 GPT-3 时代，那么你有一段时间比模型有更好的推理能力，尽管你出生时还没有。是的，你短暂地抓住了他们。这对他来说永远不会显得奇怪。
**English / Original**
>> So it's been awesome. Uh and it is a real moment for optimism. My kids will never grow up in a world where they were smarter than computers. If you were born at the time of GPT3, you had a time where you had better reasoning than the models, even though you didn't when you were born. Yeah, you caught them briefly. That will never seem strange to him.
## 00:32:49
**中文**
>> 这永远不会困扰他。我想他不会在乎的。我想他会震惊地想象在黑暗时代，我们不得不喜欢处理那些不太智能的产品和服务。他将能够做你我从未做过的事情，他将对生活抱有你我从未有过的期望，你知道我将拥有更大的画布。
**English / Original**
>> That will never bother him. I don't think he'll care. I think he will he would be like shocked to imagine in the dark ages when we had to like deal with products and services that weren't incredibly smart. He will be able to do things that you and I never were able to do and he'll have expectations in life that you and I never had and you know I'll have like a much bigger canvas.
## 00:33:10
**中文**
>> 您经营企业、团队或领导人员的方式是否因拥有他们的经历而显着不同？ >> 答案一定是肯定的。拥有它们我感觉很不一样。我认为有很多小事情确实不同。然后，你知道，这无论如何都不是一个新颖的见解。我想大多数有过孩子的人都会说，你知道，一旦你有了孩子，你就会意识到你会更加关心他们以及你将拥有的经历，你会更加关心你自己和你将要离开他们的世界。
**English / Original**
>> Do you run the business or teams or lead people in any way that is notably different because of the experience of having them? >> The answer must be yes. I feel very different having them. I think there's like a bunch of small things that are are really different. And then, you know, again, this is like not a novel insight in any way. I think most people have had kids say, you know, as soon as you have a kid, you like realize that you care much more about them and the experience you're going to have, you do about yourself and the world that you are going to leave them.
## 00:33:44
**中文**
我认为我对此有一种不寻常的优势。就像人们有时问我的那样，“哦，你知道，现在你有了孩子，你关心吗？你担心人工智能的安全吗？你知道，担心不会毁灭世界吗？”答案就像是，“我不需要孩子，因为我以前真的不想毁灭世界。”但我是否更多地思考人类代理的作用以及拥有充实的生活意味着什么？对于我们正在构建的东西来说肯定有更多。就像和我一起工作的人一样，我希望他们也能拥有它。显然，你对你的孩子有非凡的同理心，但这种同理心的程度延伸到所有孩子，然后可能延伸到所有父母，然后可能延伸到每个人
**English / Original**
And I think I have a sort of like unusual vantage point for that. And and like people ask me sometimes like, "Oh, you know, now that you have kids, do you care? Are you worried about AI safety and, you know, not destroying the world?" And the answer was like, "I didn't need kids for I really didn't want to destroy the world before." But do I think more about the role of like human agency and what it means to have a fulfilling life? Definitely much more for what we're building. And also like the people I work with, I want them to have it too. You obviously have extraordinary empathy for your kids, but the degree to which that kind of extends to all kids and then maybe to all parents and to maybe then to everybody
## 00:34:21
**中文**
这对我来说也是一个惊喜。
**English / Original**
like that's been a surprise to me too.
## 00:34:22
**中文**
>> 在其中一篇文章中，我认为这是您希望早点知道的事情，或者是关于激励的事情。非常非常仔细地设置它们。 >> 是的。 >> 您没有持有这家公司的股权一直是您最Perplexity和有趣的事情之一。世界应该如何看待你的激励措施？我不知道还能说什么，除了我坐在前排见证了人类历史上最激动人心的时刻，这对我来说比任何金钱都更有价值。我过着极其有趣的生活，并与杰出的人一起从事我非常关心的事情。但不知怎的，这不算数，因为这并不>>为人或事做。
**English / Original**
>> In in one of the posts, I think it was the one that's things you wish you knew earlier or something um is about incentives. Set them very very carefully. >> Yeah. >> It's always been one of the most puzzling and interesting things about you that you don't have equity exposure to this company. How should the world think about your incentives? I don't know what I can say beyond like I have a front row seat to the most exciting moment of human history and like that is worth more to me than any amount of money. I get to have an extremely interesting life and work with extraordinary people on something that I deeply care about. But somehow that doesn't count like that doesn't >> do it for people or something.
## 00:35:02
**中文**
>> 事实并非如此。 >> 我很好奇您如何看待机器人技术。就像你之前提到的，在某些时候，如果我们像拥有自动化智能一样拥有自动化劳动力，事情可能会变得更加疯狂。白领市场的劳动力市场要大得多。 >> 如果我们没有它，那么事情就会变得非常疯狂。如果世界上人们的角色就像云中人工智能的执行器一样，>>不好，>>非常糟糕。非常糟糕。所以我认为如果我们没有得到它比得到它更疯狂。
**English / Original**
>> It's not. >> I'm curious how you think about robotics. Like you mentioned earlier, at some point if we had automated labor in the same way we're going to have automated intelligence, things might get even crazier. The labor market is much bigger in the white collar market. >> If we don't have it, then things get really crazy. If the role for people in the world is to be like the actuators of AI in the cloud, >> bad, >> very bad. Very bad. So I think it's like much crazier if we don't get it than we do.
## 00:35:24
**中文**
>> 这是势在必行的事情。帮助我理解你在这方面的进步感，因为与人工智能不同，在人工智能中，每个人现在都在同一页面上，就像它进展得很快一样 >> 我你可以找到非常聪明的人说今年年底，你可以找到非常聪明的人说这是从现在起 20 年之类的。
**English / Original**
>> It's an imperative. help me understand your sense of progress in that because unlike in AI where everyone is now kind of on the same page of like it's going fast >> I you can find extremely smart people that say it's like end of this year and you can find extremely smart people that say it's 20 years from now or something.
## 00:35:39
**中文**
不会是 20 年。我认为未来两三年内，机器人领域会迎来自己的 ChatGPT 时刻。——那会是什么样？你知道具体是什么吗？——它会让大多数人真正发出“哇”的惊叹；不只是看到机器狗表演惊人动作的视频，而是让你确信一件真正重要的事情已经发生。ChatGPT 时刻的关键之一，就是任何人都能亲自使用它。
**English / Original**
>> It's not 20 years. I would say we get the Chad GBT moment for robotics in the next like two or three years. >> What would that be like? Do you know what that is? >> Something where most people have like a real wow. Not not like I saw this video of a robot dog doing something crazy, but I was somehow able to convince myself that a a really important thing happened. One of the things about the chatbt moment was that you could just go use it.
## 00:36:06
**中文**
>> 是的。 >> 就像我不必相信有人说人工智能即将到来一样。你可以去尝试一下。 >> 是的。 >> 如果你可以输入命令，机器人就可以做一些疯狂的事情，即使你不在现场，你也可以观看它。我认为这会有同样的效果，就像哇，它只是做了这件事。 ChatGPT 不是一个单一的目标，而是有点像您决定发布的一个附带实验。
**English / Original**
>> Yeah. >> Like I didn't have to like believe someone who said AI is coming soon. You could just go try it. >> Yeah. >> And if you can go like, you know, type in a command and a robot can do something crazy and you can like watch it even if it's you're not physically there. I think that would have the same kind of like whoa, it just did this thing. Wasn't chatbt like not this monolithic goal but sort of like a side experiment that you decided to release.
## 00:36:25
**中文**
这个故事是否能启发机器人领域发生类似的突破？大家似乎都想让机器人叠衣服，但真正的突破也许会完全不同。——我们发布 GPT-3 时，正努力赚钱、让人们使用 API。那个模型其实很笨；如果今天回去使用，你会非常惊讶。当时唯一真正奏效的商业用例是文案写作：你付给营销公司 20 美元，他们再付给我们 20 美分，让 AI 为你写一个落地页之类的内容。但除了这一个商业用例，开发者还……
**English / Original**
Can you tell that that that story may be instructive for something similar happening in robotics? Everyone seems to want to fold laundry but maybe it's something very different. >> When we launched GBD3 um we're trying to make money trying to get people to use this API. >> Yeah. >> And the only commercial use case that was really working the model was just so dumb. Like if you went back and used it you'd be astonished. The only commercial use case that was working was copyrightiting >> you know. So you pay like some marketing firm 20 bucks and they paid us 20 cents for the AI to like write you a landing page or whatever. But in addition to that one commercial use case, developers
## 00:36:58
**中文**
在使用一个我们称为 Playground 的工具，也就是与模型交互的测试界面。当时聊天很困难，因为我们并未把模型调优成善于对话；你得先给出几个对话示例，再开始交流。但人们非常喜欢它。我在 YC 学到过一条宝贵经验：一旦注意到用户自发用产品做某件事，就沿着那条路深入。因此，我们决定既然大家都在聊天，就做一个真正好用的聊天机器人。我们开始开发，并完成了 GPT-4，在内部使用后意识到这会是一件大事；我们觉得，它会让全世界重新认识 AI。
**English / Original**
were using this thing we called the playground which was like a testing interface to chat with the model. And it was really hard to do because we had not tuned the model to be good to chat with. So you had to like give it a few examples of what it means to chat and then do it. But people really liked it. And I had learned this great lesson from YC is if you notice your users doing something like go down that yeah go down that path. And so we decided that we would build a good chatbot since that's what people were doing. Um we started working on that and we finished GBT4 and we started using that internally. like this is a big deal and we kind of thought that all right this is going to be a real update to the
## 00:37:37
**中文**
这里也有许多棘手问题：它会不会制造大量假新闻？会不会说出极具冒犯性的话，让我们惹上麻烦？所以我们决定先从较弱的版本开始。聊天界面和 GPT-4 同时推出似乎跨度太大，于是先发布聊天界面配合 GPT-3.5；它最初甚至打算命名为“Chat with GPT-3.5”。我们没把它当作正式产品，也没料到会大获成功，只希望让世界跟上进展，意识到某些事情正在发生。幸运的是，发布前几个小时我们把它改名为 ChatGPT，并以“研究预览”的形式推出。
**English / Original**
world about AI and there's a bunch of hard questions here about you know is this going to create a bunch of fake news is going to say really offensive things we're going to get in trouble so we decided we would start with a weaker version um the chat interface and GPT4 at the same time seemed like a lot so we would roll out the chat interface and GPT3.5 >> in fact it was originally going to be called chat with GPT3.5 and Uh we didn't plan to be product. Didn't think it'd be a huge hit, but did did think it would get people the world to like catch up with this and realize something was going on. And uh we mercifully renamed it ChachiBT a few hours before launch and put it out as like a research preview.
## 00:38:21
**中文**
>> 我们的想法是，将其作为研究预览版发布，然后几个月后，我们将推出一款采用 GPT-4 的产品。不管出于什么原因，这个模型已经超过了门槛，尽管我们已经在内部习惯了它，但人们还是说：“好吧，这太棒了。”也许还没有那么多实用性，但对于人们来说，这是一个令人难以置信的时刻，让他们感受到人工智能的进步并使用他们喜欢使用的东西。然后当我们推出 GPT-4 时，呃，他们也确实从使用中受益。
**English / Original**
>> And the thought was we'd put it out as a research preview and then a few months later we would launch a product with GPT4. And for whatever reason, that model was over the threshold where even though we had gotten used to it internally, people said, "Okay, this is awesome." There maybe wasn't that much utility yet, but it was an incredible moment for people to feel AI progress and use something that they enjoyed using. And then by the time we put GPT4, uh, something they really got benefit out of using too.
## 00:38:48
**中文**
>> Vanta 为 Ramp、Cursor 和 Harvey 等超过 16,000 家快速发展的公司实现安全性和合规性自动化，让他们全天候做好审计准备。它是排名第一的代理信任平台 [音乐]，现在可以帮助像您这样的公司监视供应商、人工智能工具和整个环境的审核之间出现的风险。
**English / Original**
>> Vanta automates security and compliance for over 16,000 fastmoving companies like Ramp, Curser, and Harvey, keeping them audit ready around the clock. It's the number one agentic trust platform [music] and it now helps companies like yours watch for the risks that show up between audits across your vendors, your AI tools, and your whole environment.
## 00:39:06
**中文**
你的团队注册的每一个新工具，每一个开启人工智能功能的供应商[音乐]都是出现问题的机会。大多数安全计划并不是针对人工智能的发展速度而设计的。 Vant 代理的工作方式就像后台的 全天候 GRC 工程师一样，查找问题、为您起草修复方案、[音乐]，并将供应商评估时间缩短高达 50%。无论您是一家快速发展的[音乐]初创公司还是一家全球性企业，Vanta 都能帮助您赢得并证明信任。
**English / Original**
Every new tool your team signs up for, every vendor [music] that turns on AI features is an opportunity for something to go wrong. And most security programs weren't built for AI's pace of growth. The Vant agent works like a 247 GRC engineer in the background, finding issues, drafting fixes for you, [music] and cutting vendor assessment time by up to 50%. Whether you're a [music] fast growing startup or a global enterprise, Vanta helps you earn and prove trust.
## 00:39:30
**中文**
像最好的听众一样投资。访问vanta.com/invest 即可享受立减 1,000 美元的特别优惠。 [音乐] Ridgeline 是第一个为投资管理[音乐]公司提供嵌入式人工智能的端到端记录系统。在一个统一平台上运行投资组合会计、对账、报告、交易和合规性[音乐]。公司正在放弃传统技术并转向 Ridgeline，因为 Ridgeline 的人工智能功能与投资管理软件中的其他任何[音乐]相比都遥遥领先。我听到很多投资经理谈到人工智能，他们大致分为两个阵营（音乐），一些人不确定从哪里开始，另一些人则相信他们可以建立自己的秩序
**English / Original**
Invest like the best listeners. Get a special offer for $1,000 off at vanta.com/invest. [music] Ridgeline is the first endto-end system of record with embedded AI for investment management [music] firms. Running portfolio accounting, reconciliation, reporting, trading, and compliance [music] on one unified platform. Firms are moving off legacy technology and onto Ridgeline because of how far ahead Ridgeline's AI features are compared to [music] anything else in investment management software. I've been hearing from a lot of investment managers about AI and they fall roughly into two camps [music] with some unsure of where to even start and others convinced they can build their own order
## 00:40:07
**中文**
一个周末的管理系统。现实情况是，运营一家投资公司始终需要治理、控制、[音乐]和单一的真实数据来源。无论对人工智能的热情有多少，这一要求都不会改变。 Ridgeline 正是建立在这个基础上，这就是为什么我相信在人工智能时代脱颖而出的公司将是在 Ridgeline 统一平台上运行的公司。
**English / Original**
management system over a weekend. The reality is that running an investment firm will always require governance, controls, [music] and a single source of truth for your data. And no amount of AI enthusiasm changes that requirement. Ridgeline is built on exactly that foundation, which is why I believe that firms that come out ahead in the AI era will be the ones running on Ridgeline's unified platform.
## 00:40:26
**中文**
如果您认真对待公司的人工智能（音乐）战略，Ridgeline 应该成为对话的一部分。您可以在 ridgeline.ai 请求演示。 [音乐] 你是否感到惊讶，这仍然是我们与外星智能之间的直观界面，甚至包括编码？就像大多数情况下，我与计算机交谈，告诉它要构建什么。不，因为我就像一个发短信的人。
**English / Original**
If you're serious about your firm's AI [music] strategy, Ridgeline should be part of that conversation. You can request a demo at ridgeline.ai. [music] Are you surprised that that remains kind of the intuitive interface between us and this alien intelligence, even including coding? Like mostly that's me talking to the computer telling it what to build. No, because I'm like a massive texter.
## 00:40:48
**中文**
>> 是的，>> 我一生都是短信爱好者。我认为我自己对为什么这是一个好的界面的见解的一部分是，>>我知道如何做到这一点。我知道该怎么做。我知道在文本框中开始聊天是什么感觉。关于扩散的概念以及如何使其更快还有其他想法吗？就像如果使命是将智能掌握在手中并且对每个人都更有用一样，其中的一个关键部分就像我不知道营销活动或类似的事情，如何让它比我看来自然地传播得更快？我认为关键是让它变得更好。就像我一样，我相信真正伟大的产品会自我推销。没有 ChatGPT 营销
**English / Original**
>> Yeah, >> I've been a massive texter my whole life. I think part of my own insight of why that was a good interface is I'm like, >> I know how to do this. I know how to do this. I know what it's like to just like start chatting in a text box. Any other thoughts on this notion of diffusion and how to make it faster? Like if the mission is get intelligence into the hands and more useful for everyone, a key part of that is like I don't know a marketing campaign or something like how how do you get this to diffuse faster than it seems to be doing naturally to me? I think the key thing is uh just make it better. Like I I kind of believe that a truly great product markets itself. There was no ChadBT marketing
## 00:41:22
**中文**
活动>>开头。 >> 嗯，我认为，当我们进入模型的下一阶段，并且我们弄清楚如何制造与模型本身一样出色的产品时，将会有如此令人难以置信的实用性，人们会很快传播它。呃，我们绝对应该做更多的营销，比如人工智能还不太流行>>因为人们使用它的程度很高，或者他们对它的发展方向有非常可以理解的焦虑，所以我认为一些伟大的营销会有所帮助，但就价值而言，人们正在摆脱他们的产品，让他们的产品增长得更快，模型更多地计算更好的产品，这段时间
**English / Original**
campaign >> at the beginning. >> Um and I think as we get to this next stage of models and we figure out how to make products that are as great as the models themselves, there will be such incredible utility that people will spread it very quickly. uh we should definitely do more marketing like the AI is not too popular >> for as much as people use it or they're kind of they have very understandable anxiety about where it can go and so that kind of stuff I think some great marketing would be helpful for but in terms of value people are getting out of their products and getting their products to grow faster models more compute better products that will do it there was this period where the
## 00:42:01
**中文**
招募研究人员、留住他们、激励他们就像竞争格局中的决定性故事或其他什么，我认为有很多关于成功招募优秀研究人员的故事，其中有很多是通过 OpenAI 实现的，并产生了巨大的影响。其中有些是众所周知的，有些是鲜为人知的名字。我只是对整个流派感到好奇，就像你学到的如何招募这类人一样。对他们来说重要的是什么以及你是如何做到的。
**English / Original**
recruiting of researchers the retention of them the incentivizing of them was like the defining story in the competitive landscape or whatever I think there's lots of stories about you successfully recruiting great researchers and there's been many that have come through OpenAI and had huge impacts. Some of which are known, some of which are lesserk known names. I'm just curious about this whole genre of like what you learned about how to recruit this class of person. What matters to them and and how you did it.
## 00:42:26
**中文**
我从没听你谈过早期招募人才时具体采取过什么策略。——其实很简单：我们相信 AGI 是可能的，值得为之奋斗，而且愿意公开说出来。当时这是一种近乎疯狂、离经叛道的信念。OpenAI 刚成立时，许多领域巨头和专家都说这太疯狂、过度炒作、不负责任；包括 Yann LeCun 在内的一些备受尊敬的人也告诉记者，这些人能力不行，事情不会成功。但我们敢于说“我们就是要实现它”，这确实吸引了某一类研究人员……
**English / Original**
I've never heard you talk about like the actual tactical like moves you pulled to recruit somebody >> in the early days. I think it was quite simple which was that we believed that AGI was possible >> and it was worth going after and we're willing to say that and that was like an insane heretical belief. When we first announced OpenAI all of these like you know giants of the field these experts were saying this is like insane it's hypy. It's irresponsible. Really respected people like Yan Lun or whatever telling journalists like oh these guys aren't very good and it's not going to work. But the fact that we were able to say we're gonna go for this, it really appealed to a certain kind of
## 00:43:08
**中文**
研究人员也想继续这个成功概率很低的疯狂冒险。雄心勃勃的大胆愿景是一种非常强大的招聘工具。 >> 是的。您认为您已经写过，由于这个原因，有时构建更困难的东西实际上更容易。 >> 我非常相信这一点。这是我对 YC 创始人最常提出的建议之一，我试图在 OpenAI 中真正践行这一建议。就做点更难的事吧。
**English / Original**
researcher that also wanted to like go on this crazy adventure with low probability of success. And an ambitious kind of audacious vision is a very powerful recruiting tool. >> Yeah. You think you've written that it's actually easier sometimes to build things that are harder because of this reason. >> I super believe in this. It's one of my most frequent pieces of advice to YC founders and I tried to really live it at OpenAI. Just do something harder.
## 00:43:34
**中文**
>> 做一些重要的事情，就像做一些重要的事情一样，如果你不这样做，如果你的公司没有成功，可能就不会成功。 >> 你是一名投资者，也是我们的投资者，呃，你做了很多事情，并且在某一时刻你也这么做了。关于投资者的另一面，你了解到了什么？真正出现并试图帮助你的投资者数量少得令人难以置信。乔什·库什纳 (Josh Kushner)，绝对的 MVP 投资者，令人难以置信，他夜以继日地工作了好几年来帮助我们。我可以指出，他是唯一一个始终积极主动提供帮助的投资者。有更多的人可以做到这一点。呃，还有很多其他的
**English / Original**
>> Do something that matters like do something that is important and if you don't do it, if your company doesn't succeed, might not happen. >> You were an investor and our investor uh you've done a lot of it and at one point that's what you did. What have you learned about investors being on the other side? The number of investors that actually show up and try to help you is unbelievably small. Josh Kushner, absolute MVP investor, unbelievable, has like worked around the clock for what feels like years to help us. He is the only investor that I could point to that is proactively incredibly helpful all the time. There are more people that could do that. Uh, and there are many other
## 00:44:17
**中文**
他们也提供了帮助，提供了很好的战略建议，并且在我们要求他们做的时候做事。但投资者如此持续不懈的全力支持却出人意料地罕见。也许我有偏见，因为我总是喜欢人们这样评价我，但我认为创始人真的很喜欢这一点，这实际上就像移动针一样，作为投资者，这是我和我的朋友玩这个游戏最有趣的方式，我们一直互相发短信，而短信的提示是我不想让你了解我的事情。
**English / Original**
investors that have also been helpful and that have great strategic advice and that do things when, you know, we ask them to do it. But the like constant just relentless all-in support is surprisingly rare from investors. Maybe I'm biased cuz I like always liked it when people said that about me, but I think founders really love that and it actually like moves the needle and as an investor, it's the most fun way to do Me and my friend play this game where we text each other all the time and the prompt of the text is something I don't want you to know about me.
## 00:44:47
**中文**
这让我想起什么？我累了。我不认为我已经这样做很长时间了。很累。 >> 你是如何度过这个难关的？ >> 继续前进。 >> 这就引出了一个问题，比如是否有足够的疲劳会让你停止这样做？ >> 不，不，不。我我的意思是我我这是世界上最酷的工作。我计划在我余下的职业生涯中这样做，但这比我向人们解释要困难得多。我非常感激能够做到这一点。这不是我在抱怨。
**English / Original**
What is What does that bring to mind? I'm tired. I don't think I'm supposed I've been doing this a long time. It's tiring. >> How do you get through that? >> Just keep going. >> It begs the question like is there amount of being tired that would make you stop doing this? >> No, no, no. I I mean I I this is the coolest job in the world. I plan to do this for the rest of my career, but it's like much harder than I have a way to explain to people. I I feel very grateful to get to do this. This is not me complaining.
## 00:45:13
**中文**
>> 接下来会发生什么？就像我们谈论明年、后年的自动化人工智能研究人员一样，您如何看待未来 6 到 36 个月内会发生什么？也许在这个疯狂的指数中，这个预测还太遥远。也许这个问题的另一个版本是，假设从现在开始的第 23 个月，我们有了所有人都同意的超级智能。
**English / Original**
>> What's coming next? Like we talked about automated AI researchers that next year, the year after like how do you think about what is happening in the next 6 to 36 months? Maybe that's too far out to forecast in this crazy exponential. Maybe a different version of the question is like let's say in you know month 23 from now we have something that everybody agrees is super intelligence.
## 00:45:36
**中文**
24 个月会发生什么？ >> 我的回答是，呃，不是很多。对机器之神的那种狂热崇拜表明，人们相信更多的事情将会比即将发生的事情更快地发生。最终会发生很多事情，但无论如何最终还是会发生很多事情。就像人类进步的速度，你知道每个十年会有多么不同，每个十年与之前的十年有多大不同，这已经发生了很长一段时间，显然有起有落，但有方向性，我认为思考这个问题的正确方法是每个人都想成为故事的英雄，每个人都想感觉自己在机器之神的那一刻就在那里，他们
**English / Original**
What happens in month 24? >> And my answer would be uh not very much. The the kind of like cult worship of the machine god states those people believe that like more is going to happen quickly than is going to happen. Eventually a lot will happen but eventually a lot was going to happen anyway. like the rate of human progress and you know how different each decade is going to be and how much each decade is more different than the decade from before that's been happening for a long time obviously ups and downs but directionally and I think the right way to think about this everybody wants to be the hero of the story everybody wants to feel like they were there for the moment of the machine god and they
## 00:46:14
**中文**
扮演了一些疯狂的角色，但你知道这是又一步，在 50 年前很难想象，50 年后的一步在今天也很难想象，我认为正确的心理框架只是缩小出路，这是一个相当平滑的指数。 >> 告诉我一些关于观看 Codex 腾飞的经历，以及它与我所描述的你们通过聊天建立的分销竞争优势有多大联系，这是一个通往像 Moes 一般在人工智能中的问题的门户，就像你们认为随着时间的推移，什么将在业务中推动真正的竞争优势。我认为 Codex 获胜主要是因为它是最好的产品和最好的模型。我们确实得到了一些
**English / Original**
played some crazy role but you know this is another step and it was hard to imagine 50 years ago and the step 50 years from now is hard to imagine today and and I think the right mental framework is just the zoom way out and it's a pretty smooth exponential. >> Tell me a little bit about the experience of watching codeex take off and how much that is tied to what I would describe as like a competitive advantage of distribution that you built through chat and this is a gateway into a question about like Moes in general in AI like what you think will drive real competitive advantage in the business over time. I think Codex mostly is winning because it's the best product and the best model. We do get some
## 00:46:54
**中文**
ChatGPT 捆绑带来的优势，但非常非常小。这基本上不是它的目的。这让我对竞争优势这个问题进行了很多反思，因为你知道出色的智力可以从任何产品迁移到任何其他产品>>并且网络效应仍然具有竞争优势。经济规
**English / Original**
advantage from Chachib bundling but very very tiny. That is mostly not what it's been about. It has made me reflect a lot on this question of competitive advantage um because you know like brilliant intelligence can migrate from any product to any other product >> and network effects still have a competitive advantage. economic scale and the ability to like make the cheapest comput fleets whatever still have a competitive advantage but the product advantage like if we could get people to move over to Codex and someone builds something better they can get people to move from codeex >> so it has made me reflect on that a lot >> there's a really interesting question about whether this is going in the
## 00:47:30
**中文**
从商品属性来看，智能会不会成为像原油一样完全可互换的商品？——我认为智能本身会。——那么什么不会商品化？——算力集群。例如集群的规模，以及建设更多算力的能力；我认为这会是一项非常持久的优势。产品本身未必如此，因为 Codex 可以按你的要求编写任何软件。但工作流、集成、复杂流程以及团队协作能力都很强大；甚至品牌偏好和熟悉度也具有相当强的黏性。
**English / Original**
direction of a commodity like is intelligence going to be a a pure funible commodity like rated oil or something >> intelligence itself I would say yes >> so what is not going to be >> comput fleet you know like the scale of the comput fleet the ability to make more compute. I think that's like a very durable advantage even if the product itself is not because you know codecs can write any piece of software you want. The workflows, the integrations, the sort of like complex processes, the ability for teams to collaborate together, that stuff is all pretty powerful. Even like brand preference and familiarity is pretty powerful.
## 00:48:04
**中文**
>> 你对新的东西感到多么兴奋，显然你已经在硬件方面做了有趣的事情，我相信你会在今年晚些时候宣布。该实验感觉如何，与您拥有的这种消费者分布如何一致？ >> 我对新硬件感兴趣的原因之一是我们之前讨论过人工智能的一个非常强大的功能是它可以始终保持主动并理解您的所有上下文。但当前的硬件并不适合这样做。
**English / Original**
>> How excited are you about new obviously you've done interesting stuff in hardware that I'm sure you'll announce later this year. How how does that experiment feel and align with this sort of consumer distribution that you have? >> One of the reasons I'm interested in new hardware is we were talking earlier about how a very powerful thing with AI is that it can be always on and proactive and just understand all your context. But current hardware is not is not good for that.
## 00:48:28
**中文**
>> 就像我们正在一个已有 50 年历史的硬件范例中工作一样。嗯，电脑太棒了。键盘和鼠标显示器。这是一件了不起的事情，但我们必须将人工智能塑造成这样。我很高兴想到我会喜欢人工智能能够参考这个对话，但并不是那么喜欢打开我的笔记本电脑，把它放在这里，在它进行的过程中看着你并听我们说话，但我想要一个社会上可以接受的硬件来做到这一点，并且感觉它是为这类事情而设计的。当你思考那些悬而未决的问题时，你脑海中与你的朋友、你所认识的人正在争论什么？
**English / Original**
>> Like we are working inside of a hardware paradigm that is 50 years old something like that. Um and computers are amazing. keyboard and mice monitor. It's an amazing thing, but like we have to shape AI into that. And I would I'm excited to think about I would love AI to be able to reference this conversation, but not so much that I'm willing to like crack my laptop open, put it here, and have it like looking at you and listening to us while it's going, but I would like a piece of hardware that socially was acceptable to do that and also felt like it was designed for that kind of a thing. As you think about the open questions, what debates in your own head with your friends, with people that your
## 00:49:05
**中文**
这里的同事们，您不确定但又觉得重要的最有趣的公开辩论或开放问题是什么？ >> 我认为没有引起太多关注的是我们如何避免认知萎缩？我们将如何使用这些工具并确保我们越来越多地拓展我们的大脑并继续理解真正重要的东西？嗯，有很多版本不喜欢我，我记得当我在学校时，我让这位教授告诉我，就像你必须了解编译器一样。如果你不这样做，你将永远无法成为一名优秀的程序员。不知何故，这不太正确。但在合理的水平上理解，比如专业如何
**English / Original**
colleagues here, what are the most interesting open debates or open questions that you you you don't feel certain about but feel important? >> One that I don't think gets much attention is how how are we going to avoid cognitive atrophy? How are we going to use these tools and make sure that we are like stretching our brains more and more and continuing to understand the stuff that that really matters? Um, there's lots of versions of this that don't like I I remember when I was in school, I had this professor tell me like you got to understand compilers. If you don't, you will never be able to be a good programmer. Somehow that wasn't quite right. But understanding at a reasonable level like how the major
## 00:49:44
**中文**
计算机系统组件的工作对我来说很重要。 >> 被迫想象这样一个场景：我们在 2 年内的计算能力会以某种方式过剩。那会是什么故事呢？如果模型变得如此智能和高效，以至于它们可以完成我们需要的一切，并且构建我们想要的每一个软件，并且如果我们的注意力有限，以至于它们无法吸收超出相当有限的计算量所能完成的内容，那么我们就会陷入供应过剩的情况，这确实是可能的。此外，如果我们不降低成本曲线，因为我们遇到了某种规模扩张的墙，我们也可能会陷入供应过剩。就像对 uncapp 需求的观察意味着一定的价格一样。
**English / Original**
components of a computer system work has been important to me. >> Forced to imagine a scenario where we are somehow over supplied in compute in 2 years time. What would be that story? It does feel possible if the models get so smart and so efficient that they can kind of do everything we need and you know build every piece of software we want and if the bounds of our attention are such that like they just cannot absorb more than what it turns out a fairly limited amount of compute can do then we can get into over supply. Also if we don't drive the cost curve down because we hit some sort of scaling wall we could also get into over supply. like the the observation about uncapp demand implies a certain price.
## 00:50:24
**中文**
今天你怎样看待缩放定律？——看起来非常好。——就只是“看起来很好”？——从某种意义上说，缩放定律可能是有史以来最不受欢迎的预测。每个人总想说，训练运行不可能继续这样扩展，但它偏偏一直延续下去。——在这家公司的发展史中，你最喜欢哪些未获足够认可的幕后英雄？
**English / Original**
>> Can you give your point of view on scaling laws today? >> Looking great. >> Just looking good. >> In some sense, scaling laws are like the most hated prediction of all time. Everybody always wants to say a runa can't be like this and and yet it keeps going. >> Who are your favorite unsung heroes in this company's story?
## 00:50:40
**中文**
>> 第一个想到的人是亚历克·雷德福。亚历克·雷德福（Alec Radford）可能是该领域整个历史上最重要的、不太知名的研究人员，也是一位出色的顶级人物。嗯，他所做的工作真正成为了 GPT 系列，呃，还有许多其他重要的事情。嗯，但他也是一个在许多其他方向上启发、指导和推动人们的人，结果证明这些方向非常重要。
**English / Original**
>> First person that came to mind is Alec Radford. Alec Radford is probably the most important not very well-known researcher in the whole history of the field and also just a wonderful like top top tier human being. Um he did the work that really became the GPT series uh among many other important things. Um, but he also is someone who inspired, guided, nudged people in many other directions that turned out to be super important.
## 00:51:12
**中文**
我认为他很酷的一点是，如果你和与他共事的人交谈，他们当然会说，你知道，他是一代天才、才华横溢、创新的思想家，他的理解、他和他的工作是如此深刻。但每个人在结束发言之前都会告诉你，他们就像是他们接触过的最友善、最积极、最好的人之一。
**English / Original**
And the thing I think is cool about him is if you talk to people that worked with him, they will they will of course say, you know, generational genius, brilliant, innovative thinker, just so deep in his understanding and his and his work. But everybody everybody will tell you before they finish their statement that just like one of the nicest, most positive, best people they've ever interacted with.
## 00:51:35
**中文**
>> 我喜欢性格形成的时刻。因此，当我们来到这里时，我很想知道其中的哪一个。如果您思考整个 OpenAI 体验，您最引以为傲的时刻或章节是什么？从另一件事开始，这就像是最有启发性的事情，也许你错了或做错了，或者你有什么，从中学到了什么？
**English / Original**
>> I love formative moments. And so as we wind up here, I'm curious to ask what one of each. If you think about the whole OpenAI experience, what moment or chapter or whatever are you most proud of? start with the other one which is what was like the most instructive thing that maybe you got wrong or did wrong or what have you and and what was what was it like to learn from it?
## 00:51:56
**中文**
>> 我的意思是很多事情都出了问题。一个我没有谈论太多的形成性错误是我们一开始就尝试在结构上进行创新而犯了一个错误。我们这样做有一个很好的理由，那就是我们不知道如何赚钱，而且当时我们真的完全不确定长大后会是什么样子。当然，我们关心我们的使命，我们希望以一种方式构建，即使技术飞速发展，我们的使命也能得到保护，所以我们有这样的非营利结构，但我确实了解到了为什么人们不做那么多。我们本来可以节省很多
**English / Original**
>> I mean a lot of things have gone wrong. A formative one that went wrong which I haven't talked about much is we made a mistake to try to innovate in our structure in the beginning. We had a very good reason for it which is we didn't know how we were ever going to make money and we really at the time weren't sure at all what we're going to look like when we grew up. And of course we care about our mission and we wanted to like be structured in a way where even if the technology went on a very fast takeoff our mission was protected and so we had this like you know nonprofit structure but I definitely learned something about why people don't do that much. We would have saved ourselves a great deal of
## 00:52:33
**中文**
如果我们没有尝试对我们的结构进行创新并找到其他方法来保持使命的核心重要性，那么我们会在很多方面遭受痛苦。也许没有其他办法了。也许是因为我们正在做的事情以及它的重要性。除了奇特的结构之外，我们别无选择。在过去的十年里，我确实学到了一个重要的教训，那就是为什么人们通常不这样做。
**English / Original**
pain in many ways if we had not tried to innovate on our structure and found some other way to preserve the central importance of the mission. Maybe there was no other way. Maybe there was for what we were doing and kind of the importance of it. There was nothing other than an exotic structure we could have come up with. I really learned over the last decade a big lesson about why people don't usually do that.
## 00:52:55
**中文**
>> 还有什么东西对你的生活形成了影响，让你成为了你，但我们没有谈论过？这就像我一直最感兴趣的问题。对那些对我有强烈意见的人相对免疫，我想我是在后来的生活中发展起来的，就像意识到，如果你要成为这场疯狂革命的中心，每个人都会向你投射很多东西，你必须很快学会对此保持平静。我想我在后来的生活中也学到了一些东西，比如如何保持冷静，不要对事情感到焦虑。就驱动我的因素和我关心的事情以及我想要的生活方式而言
**English / Original**
>> Is there anything for else formative of your life that like makes you you that we didn't talk about? I'm this is like the the question that's always like the most interesting to me. becoming relatively immune to people having strong opinions about me that I think I developed later in life as as like realizing that man just if you're going to be at the center of like this crazy revolution everybody's going to project a lot of stuff onto you and you got to just quickly learn to make peace about that. I think there were also things I learned later in life about like how to be very calm and not anxious really about stuff. In terms of what drives me and what I care about and kind of like how I want to live my life
## 00:53:36
**中文**
总的来说，我觉得，你知道，无论出于什么原因，10 岁的我已经完全成型了。我想我就是喜欢这种方式。 >> 回顾过去让您感到自豪的事情怎么样？最令我自豪的是，有多少次，当世界其他国家都错了时，我们却是对的，这让世界走上了一条重要的轨道，现在我很自豪能够在其中发挥作用。这感觉棒极了。然后也像所有发生的废话一样，比如精神成长或者无论你想怎么称呼它，我已经学会了令人难以置信的韧性，以及它的作用让我在余生中感到快乐。是的，对此非常感激。
**English / Original**
on the whole I felt like, you know, for whatever reason, the like 10-year-old version of me was pretty like fully formed. I think I just like kind of came out this way. >> How about the thing you're proud of looking back on? I'm most proud of how many times we were right when the rest of the world was wrong in an important way that put the world on a trajectory now that I'm very proud to have played a role in. That feels awesome. And then also like for all the crap that's happened like the spiritual growth or whatever you want to call it that I've gotten to have of like learning just incredible resilience and what that does for like making me happy in the rest of my life. Yeah, very grateful for that.
## 00:54:13
**中文**
>> 当我做这些的时候，我会问每个人同样的传统结束语。别人为你做过的最善意的事情是什么？ >> 在我的一生中，有这么多人不遗余力地对我非常友善，我感到非常幸运。当我想到这一点时，就像生活中的蒙太奇一样，人们对我难以置信地好。昨天，我的孩子第一次与我分享他的蓝莓。
**English / Original**
>> When I do these, I ask everyone the same traditional closing question. What is the kindest thing that anyone's ever done for you? >> I feel incredibly lucky about how many people have gone way out of their way to be very kind to me throughout my entire life. As I'm thinking of this, there's just this like montage of moments from life where people have been unbelievably nice to me. Yesterday, my kid shared his blueberries with me for the first time.
## 00:54:34
**中文**
那真是太甜蜜了。 [音乐] 美好的时刻。谢谢，伙计。谢谢。 >> 您知道随着时间的推移，微小的优势会如何复合吗？这对于投资来说是正确的，对于公司的运营方式也是如此。你的支出系统就是你的资本配置策略。 [音乐] RAMP 默认使其变得更加智能。随着时间的推移，更好的数据、更好的决策、更好的经济效益。请访问 Ramp.com/invest 来了解具体操作方法。
**English / Original**
That was very sweet. [music] Good moment. Thanks, man. Thank you. >> You know how small advantages compound over time? That's true in investing and just as true in how you run your company. Your spending system is your capital allocation strategy. [music] RAMP makes it smarter by default. Better data, better decisions, better economics over time. See how at ramp.com/invest.
## 00:54:56
**中文**
随着您的业务增长，Vanta 会与您一起扩展，自动实现合规性并为您的[音乐]提供安全和风险的单一事实来源。如需了解更多信息，请访问 vant.com/invest。从 OpenAI 到 Cursor 到 Perplexity，最好的人工智能和软件公司都使用 Work OS 来让企业在一夜之间（而不是几个月）做好准备。访问workos.com，跳过乏味的基础设施工作，专注于您的产品。 [音乐] Ridgeline 正在将资产管理技术重新定义为真正的合作伙伴，而不仅仅是软件供应商。他们帮助公司将[音乐]和规模扩大了 5 倍，实现更快的增长、更智能的运营和竞争优势。访问 ridgelineapps.com，了解他们可以为您的公司解锁什么。 [音乐] 每
**English / Original**
As your business grows, Vanta scales with you, automating compliance and giving you [music] a single source of truth for security and risk. Learn more at vant.com/invest. The best AI and software companies from OpenAI to cursor to Perplexity use Work OS to become enterprise ready overnight, not in months. Visit workos.com to skip the unglamorous infrastructure work and focus on your product. [music] Ridgeline is redefining asset management technology as a true partner, not just a software vendor. They've helped firms 5x [music] and scale, enabling faster growth, smarter operations, and a competitive edge. Visit ridgelineapps.com to see what they can unlock for your firm. [music] Every
## 00:55:32
**中文**
投资公司是独一无二的，通用人工智能无法理解你的流程。罗戈确实如此。它是一个专门为华尔街构建的人工智能平台，连接到您的数据，了解您的流程、[音乐]并产生真实的输出。请访问 rogo.ai/invest 进行查看。
**English / Original**
investment firm is unique, and generic AI doesn't understand your process. Rogo does. It's an AI platform built specifically for Wall Street, connected to your data, understanding your process, [music] and producing real outputs. Check them out at rogo.ai/invest.