# (77) The full-length interview with Elon Musk | The Economist - YouTube
- Transcript ID: `xuoqkyxdhvc`
- Source tier: `youtube_auto`
- Original language: `en_or_source_language_unlabeled`
- Translation status: `agent_translated_reviewed` (168/168 chunks)
- Original source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XuoqKYxDHVc
- Raw evidence: `data/transcripts/youtube/XuoqKYxDHVc.json`
> 中文是派生翻译，英文是留存的源文本。中文未复核时，以英文和原始音视频为准。
## 00:00:00
**中文**
Elon Musk，非常感谢你参加《The Insider》。>> 谢谢你来到 Tesla Giga。>> 介绍你时很难不用最高级形容词。我认为，字面上说，你比当今任何在世的人都更努力地建设未来。>> 总体而言，我确实建造很多东西。>> 你建造很多东西。
**English / Original**
Elon Musk, thank you so much for joining me on the Insider. Thank you for having us here at Tesla Giga. Um, it is really hard to introduce you without using superlatives. I mean, you are doing, I think, more to build the future than literally anybody alive right now. >> I'm doing a lot of building in general. I'm >> You're doing a lot of building.
## 00:00:17
**中文**
>> 我想，我天生就是个建造者，单纯喜欢造东西。>> 的确，你整天四处建造很多东西。你开创了电动汽车，革新了太空旅行，如今拥有前沿 AI 模型和人形机器人。能否先把这一切串起来？
**English / Original**
>> In instinctive builder, I suppose. I just like building things. >> You are, but you're building I mean, you >> you know, run around building things >> all day long. >> You run around building a lot of things. You pioneered electric vehicles. You revolutionized space travel. You've got a cutting edge AI model now, humanoid robots. Can we start this conversation by you putting all of this together?
## 00:00:37
**中文**
如果你成功，十年后的世界会怎样？>> 十年，也就是 2036 年。>> 对。>> 希望我们都还在。>> 希望如此。>> 很可能会。很难想象十年后没有压倒性规模的人工智能。我预计 AI 将远远超过全人类智能总和。事实上，我认为大约五年后就可能超过。>> 恰好五年？
**English / Original**
Yeah. Tell me what the world's going to be like in let's say 10 years if you succeed. >> 10 years. So we're talking 2036. >> Yeah. >> Hopefully we'll both be around. >> Hopefully. Yes. we can we can >> uh probably most likely we will be um it it's hard to imagine the future that where there's not an overwhelm over overwhelming amount of artificial intelligence meaning like in 10 years I would expect artificial intelligence to be far greater than the sum of human intelligence like far greater um in fact I think AI may exceed the sum of human intelligence in about in around five years >> exactly 5 years.
## 00:01:17
**中文**
>> 粗略估计五年。届时除了“成为人类”之外，几乎没有任何事情 AI 不能做得比人更好。>> 更日常地说，生活会怎样？>> 最可能的结果是一个惊人富足的时代，任何人都能拥有自己想到的任何东西。这听起来也许荒谬，但我们如今身处 2026 年。
**English / Original**
>> Roughly 5 years is my guess. Um, so there really won't be anything that AI can't do better than humans apart from being human. Perhaps >> at a more prosaic level, what will life be like? >> The most likely outcome is an age of amazing abundance uh where anyone can have anything they can think of. This is this is uh this may sound preposterous, but well, here we are in 2026.
## 00:01:52
**中文**
看看 2036 年会怎样。当然，有些事可能使它脱轨，例如大规模全球热核战争。但假设没有第三次世界大战，我认为我们正走向惊人富足的时代。这是对未来乐观、兴奋的信息。
**English / Original**
Let's see where we stand in 2036. Now, of course, there are things that could derail this like a a massive global thermonuclear war or something like that. Um, but assuming that there's not World War II, uh, I think I think we're headed for an age of amazing abundance. So this is I guess a message of of optimism and uh excitement about the future.
## 00:02:18
**中文**
>> 稍后再谈富足。先问一个很现实的问题：你的公司怎样赚钱？SpaceX 的 IPO 招股材料看起来显示，绝大部分收入将来自 AI、来自 Grok，而不是 SpaceX 目前做的太空运输。
**English / Original**
>> So we'll talk about the abundance in a second but just a very prosaic matter how are your companies going to be making money because when you in the SpaceX IPO perspectives it it looked as though the overwhelming amount of the revenue would be coming from AI from Grock really it won't be transporting things to space as SpaceX is now doing.
## 00:02:37
**中文**
十年后你的公司做什么、如何赚钱？>> 可以把经济看作数字智能与物理智能。当前高速发展的是数字智能；几乎每周都有 AI 突破，能做以前做不到的惊人事情。但它仍局限在数字领域，没有执行器。需要以人形——
**English / Original**
What is what will your companies be doing in 10 years and how will they make money? >> Well, you can really think of the economy as uh digital and physical intelligence. Um so what we have right now advancing very rapidly is digital intelligence. Obviously with with AI that is uh it seems almost with every passing week uh there are more AI breakthroughs. It can do something amazing that it couldn't do before. Uh but it's still somewhat confined to the digital realm. It doesn't have endectors. You need the endectors in the form of humanoid
## 00:03:19
**中文**
机器人为形式的执行器，简而言之，需要大量机器人。这样，智能才能从只在数字世界显现，转向塑造原子。经济是什么？就是生产商品、提供服务。若有数量庞大的机器人和海量数字智能，就会形成近乎无限的——
**English / Original**
robotics. Um human you need need a basically a lots of bots in a nutshell. You need lots of bots. Um and then you can go from um intelligence manifesting itself only digitally to shaping atoms. Um and you say what what is an economy? An economy is um the production of goods and provision of services. And if you have vast numbers of robots uh with uh vast amounts of digital intelligence, you have a sort of a quatti quasi infinite
## 00:04:00
**中文**
经济。
**English / Original**
economy.
## 00:04:02
**中文**
未来将与过去截然不同。我想不出任何类比或隐喻，能说明我们将经历的变化幅度。>> 我理解，也在努力想象那个世界的样子。不过某种意义上……>> 会非常不可思议。
**English / Original**
So, so this is this is really the the future is going to be very very different from the past. There's there's no um there's no analogy or metaphor that I think illustrates the magnitude of change that we're going to experience here. I >> I I I understand that and I'm I'm also trying to kind of figure out what that world will look like. But but in some way you have >> it's going to be pretty incredible.
## 00:04:27
**中文**
>> 也有风险，稍后会谈。但先说如何赚钱：人们买你公司的股票，是因为期待你赚钱。>> 我再作一个预测：2036 年，钱将不再重要。>> 你正在观看我对 Elon Musk 的采访。想提前观看其他采访，请点击上方链接订阅《经济学人》。
**English / Original**
>> Yeah, we'll we'll also do there are some risks. We'll come to those. We'll come to those. But just on on on how then >> you make money because in the end people are buying your shares because because they expect you to make money. >> I'll make another prediction. Money won't matter in 2036. >> You're watching my interview with Elon Musk. If you want to get early access to other interviews, subscribe to The Economist by clicking the link above.
## 00:04:50
**中文**
现在回到采访。[笑声] 我不确定购买你股票的人是否认为 2036 年钱不重要。你要钱做什么？是为了商品和服务，对吧？食物、住房、交通、娱乐。如果这些东西丰富到机器人和 AI 提供的商品服务超过任何人可能消费的数量——
**English / Original**
Now back to the interview. [laughter] I'm not sure that the people who bought your shares think that money won't matter in 2036. What do you want money for? You you want money for goods and services, >> right? You want money for obviously food, housing, transport, entertainment. Um well, if that is so abundant that uh there's more that the robots and AI are providing more goods and services than you than any human could possibly consume.
## 00:05:23
**中文**
那还需要钱做什么？>> 但机器人由你创造，现在和未来你都需要钱。你是出售人形机器人，还是用自己控制的人形机器人生产商品和服务？>> 这给了你杠杆。>> 我若认为自己能控制远比我聪明的超级天才 AI，可能只是虚荣。我们能做、也应努力做的是确保 AI 具有良好价值观，关心人类，并且——
**English / Original**
What do you need money for in that case? >> But you're you're creating these robots. Are you now and then you'll need money? Sure. >> Are you are you selling these robots? Are you selling humanoid robots or are you producing goods and services with the humanoid robots that you control? >> I give you the Levi Strap. >> I think I think I would probably be it would be an exercise in vanity to for me to think that I would be controlling super genius AI that is vastly smarter than me. I think that what we can and should try to do is to make sure that the AI has good values that it cares about humanity and that
## 00:06:05
**中文**
希望我们幸福繁荣。我的生物神经网络告诉我，AI 安全最重要的是让它最大限度追求真理并保持好奇；若能如此，我认为它会促进人类发展。>> 详细说说。你确信十年后人类将不再掌控局面？
**English / Original**
uh it wants wants us to be happy and prosper. Um I think it probably will be um my what my biological neural net tells me is that the most important thing for this for AI safety is to be maximally truth seeeking and curious. uh if that's the case uh I think it will foster humanity. >> So let's unpack that. You're sure that humans will no longer be in control in 10 years time?
## 00:06:34
**中文**
>> 我认为很可能如此。如果 AI 与人类的智能差距远大于人类与黑猩猩的差距，很难想象由黑猩猩掌权，很抱歉。人类本质上是黑猩猩的进化版本；不久前，我们还在丛林里荡树枝、吃香蕉。
**English / Original**
>> I think it is unlikely. Um in the same way that if the difference in intelligence between AI and humans is vastly greater than the difference in intelligence between AI and chimpanzees, it's hard to imagine that the chimpanzees would be in charge. I'm really sorry. >> And we are essentially um an evolved form of chimpanzeee. So it wasn't that long ago that we're swinging through the trees eating bananas um in the jungle.
## 00:07:04
**中文**
顺便说，我们现在仍吃香蕉。>> 是的，有时也仍会荡树枝。挺有趣，也让人回想过去。偶尔荡荡树枝，以纪念旧时光。也许大家应该多荡树枝，我敢说它比人们想象的有趣得多。
**English / Original**
And we still eat bananas, by the way. We do. And still, you know, bananas sometimes swing through trees as well. >> Yes, we sometimes swing through trees. It's kind of fun. It's sort of um reminiscent of the past. Um for all time sake, swing through the trees once in a while. probably, you know, there should be more swinging through trees. I bet it's way more fun than people think.
## 00:07:22
**中文**
>> 这点我赞同。[笑声] 我也喜欢荡树枝。但听你如今这样说，我很惊讶。我听过你这些年的许多发言。十年前你在 Neil deGrasse Tyson 的播客中说，最令你害怕的是 AI 快速递归式自我改进；你说最好的结局是人类成为宠物拉布拉多犬，这句话给我留下深刻印象。
**English / Original**
>> I'm with you on that. [laughter] I'm definitely with you on swinging through trees. I love swinging through trees, but but but I'm really struck listening to you say this now because I've been listening to a bunch of things that you've said over the years. And and 10 years ago, you were on a podcast. I think it was with Neil Degrass Tyson, and you said that the thing that terrified you most was rapid recursive self-improvement in AIs. Yes. And that you said, and it really struck with me, you said that we will just be the pet labradors at the best.
## 00:07:47
**中文**
>> 拉布拉多犬都挺快乐，这是我的经验。>> 但 2023 年你因担忧而呼吁暂停 AI。>> 那份联名信约有五百人，我只是众多签名者之一。>> 就在去年，你似乎还在 Ted Cruz 的播客中说，杀手机器人消灭人类的概率为 10% 到 20%。
**English / Original**
Now you see >> everyone are pretty happy creatures. That's my experience. >> But in 2023 you you c you asked for a slowdown in air because you were worried about it. >> Well, I signed on to you know as one of many like 500 people. I I I was just you know one of many signatures on that thing. >> But but I think even last year you said I was it Ted Cruz's podcast you said there was a 10 to 20% chance of killer robots wiping out humanity. Yeah.
## 00:08:12
**中文**
你当时听起来很担忧，如今却很放松。观点改变了吗？>> 我仍认为 AI 和机器人有风险，并非为零。但我的哲学结论是看到光明面。我看不到真正阻止 AI 和机器人这股惊人势头的办法。有时我想，即便有停止按钮，我们可能——
**English / Original**
>> So you sounded worried then. >> Now you seem very relaxed about it. Have you changed your view? >> I still think there's I still think there's risk associated with AI and robots. It's not zero. Um I I guess I've come to my my sort of philosophical conclusion is to look on the bright side. Um I like I I can't see any way to really stop this incredible momentum of AI and robots. Um and and at times I sort of think well perhaps you know even if there was a stop button we probably
## 00:08:51
**中文**
也不该按，因为最可能结果是所有人都获得惊人富足。>> 我也是这样理解：你现在似乎决定它不可避免，所以希望最好，享受旅程。>> 对，基本如此。现阶段我的哲学是享受这段旅程，因为 AI 和机器人领域似乎有一股不可阻挡的进步——
**English / Original**
shouldn't press it uh because it was the most likely outcome is incredible abundance for for all. >> That's what I thought actually. It struck me that now you seem to have decided it's inevitable. Let's hope for the best and go for the ride. >> Yeah. I mean, yes, pretty much. Let's uh let's enjoy the ride is is I think my philosophy at this point because I mean, honestly, this there's it's it's there seems to be just an inexurable uh progress here in in AI and and in
## 00:09:30
**中文**
势头。即使我想阻止，也做不到。>> 你仍认为杀手机器人导致人类灭绝的概率是 10% 到 20% 吗？>> 这可真扫兴。长远而言，我们当然都会死。按照物理学标准模型，宇宙最终将变成漫长、无聊、稀薄的灰色汤，逐渐——
**English / Original**
robots that um >> but you even if I wanted to stop it, I don't I couldn't. Um, >> do you think there's still a 10 to 20% chance that killer robots mean the end of humanity? >> That's a high poom, as they say. >> Well, in the long run, we're all dead, of course. um you know um so I mean so I mean >> according to the standard model of physics the end of the universe is um a long boring sort of thin gray soup of uh gradual
## 00:10:10
**中文**
冷却，即所谓宇宙热寂。如果现实结局确实是热寂，那么一切真正重要的就是旅程，因为终点很糟。>> 十年可不是……[笑声] 我明白，但那还非常遥远，而你基本在说……>> 非常非常遥远。
**English / Original**
cooling um meaning sort of the heat death of the universe it's called. So now if if the heat death of the universe is in fact the outcome for our reality, then it really is all about the journey because the destination is terrible. >> 10 years is not [laughter] very Yeah, I get that. But that could be a long way and you're basically saying, very long way.
## 00:10:30
**中文**
>> 如果十年内爆炸并杀死你的概率是 10% 到 20%，你会登上自己的火箭吗？>> 会。但假设你对此无能为力，唯一能做的是尽量降低坏结果的概率。可是试图阻止智能和机器人发展……
**English / Original**
>> If it's 10 to 20% in 10 years, you would you go into one of your rockets if you thought there was a 10 to 20% chance of it blowing up and killing you? >> Yes. But but let's say there's you can't do anything about it. Okay, >> that I guess the only thing we can try to do is minimize the probability of the bad outcome. Um, but trying to stop the intelligence in robots.
## 00:10:56
**中文**
很长时间里，我拒绝参与 AI；后来创办 OpenAI，实质上是制衡 Google，因为当时它几乎垄断 AI。随后 Anthropic 从 OpenAI 分离。结果看起来，我的行动反而加速了 AI。我本无意加速，但创办 OpenAI 又促成 Anthropic，而如今 Anthropic 是 AI 领导者。
**English / Original**
Um I mean for the longest time I declined to participate in AI or was you know you know created open AI as a essentially a counterweight to to Google because at the time they were um they had more or less a monopoly on AI. Um and then anthropic spun out of uh open AI and and if anything it seems like what my actions have really accelerated AI. you know, I wasn't really aiming to accelerate AI, but in creating open AI and then having Anthropic spin out of that and now currently Anthropic is the leader in AI. Um,
## 00:11:37
**中文**
这些行动产生连锁效应，实际加速了 AI，并非我的本意。似乎所有道路都通向加速 AI。于是我想：“好吧，要么为此难过，要么就加入俱乐部。”>> 你显然加入了。
**English / Original**
I mean the these actions have actually resulted in knock-on effects that accelerated AI, which wasn't really my intention. So, it just seems like all roads lead to acceleration of AI. So then I'm like, "Okay, well, you can just sort of be sad about it or join the club, I suppose." >> Well, you've certainly joined the club.
## 00:12:04
**中文**
>> 是。>> 而且加入得非常成功。>> 打不过就加入。>> 你确实这么做了。但怎样降低风险？其他模型公司领导者提出过不同办法。上周 Demis Hassabis 提议建立公私结合的监管机构，你说这是讨论的良好起点。你们是否应更积极地建立风险控制机制，还是这也不可能？>> 我给 Demis 的建议是——
**English / Original**
>> Yeah, >> you've definitely joined the club, but >> you can't beat him. Join them, you know. >> Well, you you've you've clearly done that and very successfully, but what about trying to minimize the risks and, you know, a number of the other leaders of of model makers have been pushing for different ways to try and minimize the risks. Um, you know, just last week, Deisabes came out with a proposal for a private public regulator. Um, I think you you said it was a good starting point for discussions. I think do you think you guys should be working more actively >> to get something in place to control the risks or do you think that's impossible too? My recommendation to Demis because
## 00:12:43
**中文**
他发表文章前，我们谈了几小时——最直接可做的是让领先 AI 公司至少每隔几周开一次会或电话，讨论安全和安保问题。发布突破性的全新前沿模型——远比现有模型聪明——之前，应有机会让——
**English / Original**
we I talked to him for a few hours before he published his his piece was that um the most immediate thing that we could do is to have the leading AI companies um at least just meet uh or have a some sort of call once every few weeks um and just uh discuss any safety and security issues that and and and that before a breakthrough sort a new frontier model is released, something that sort of is is far more intelligent than anything that already exists that there's an opportunity for
## 00:13:20
**中文**
相互竞争的 AI 公司测试该模型是否存在有害影响，并能建议暂停发布，以解决安全问题。这是容易迅速实施的第一步，日后可逐渐扩展；我认为会是明智之举。
**English / Original**
the various competing uh AI companies to uh test that model for any harmful effects and to be able to recommend pausing to address some of these security issues. I I think that's that's the that's sort of the easy quick thing that we can do and it can it can evolve to more than that over time. Um but that's um that I think would be a smart move.
## 00:13:46
**中文**
>> 为什么还没做？你们大概就五个人，所有人都叫得出名字：Dario、Demis、Sam。你们互相不太喜欢，又彼此竞争，都想第一。>> 是，但正因如此，竞争者能互相监督。政府中缺乏深厚技术理解、又不亲自推动 AI 前沿的人，很难判断某项技术是否应发布；竞争对手若有一两周审查——
**English / Original**
>> But why why haven't you done that yet? I mean there's like five of you, right? I mean everyone knows the first name. Dario, Demis, Sam. I mean, you don't all like each other very much. Yeah. But you're not all you're not all I mean you're also all competing, right? You all want to be first. >> Yes. But that's that's where I think um the competitors can keep it keep each other honest. So meaning meaning like if um like I think it's quite difficult for someone in the government who doesn't have a deep technical understanding and isn't driving the frontier of of AI to know whether something should be released or not. Um however the competitors I think will can you know if given sort of a week or two to review a
## 00:14:27
**中文**
新模型，就能指出问题；所有竞争者都有动力监督其他人。>> 你们之间信任足够吗？你们互相不太喜欢。Sam Altman 难道不会认为你要窃取他的想法？>> 只需要一周。
**English / Original**
new model um can highlight issues and uh and have an incentive to keep all all the competitors have an incentive to keep the others honest. >> Do you have enough trust between you to do that? I mean you don't much like each other. Wouldn't wouldn't Samman just think you're going to nick all his ideas if you did that? Well, we're just talking about a week.
## 00:14:45
**中文**
坦白说，一周甚至就够了，而且是私下测试，并非交出 AI，只是通过 API 之类进行测试。我认为这是好事。>> 你提议过吗？>> 对 Demis 提过，我也会和 Dario 谈。另外，中国也有几家能力很强的 AI 公司，新的 Kimi 模型——
**English / Original**
Honestly, I think as little as a week is all that would be needed uh or private testing. It's not it's not to hand over the AI. It's just to test it >> to test it. Have you proposed this? >> Yeah, just to test it via an API or something. Um I think that would probably be a good thing to do. Um >> but have you have you proposed it? I mean, you could to Demis >> and I guess uh I I'll I'll talk to Daria about it, too. Um there's also of course um some very competent uh Chinese AI companies um that uh there's several of them several that are that are very good. Um the new Kimmy model
## 00:15:28
**中文**
>> Kimi K3。上周发布的版本几乎与 Fable 一样好，对吧？>> 实际上 Fable 显然仍是最聪明的模型，任何务实的人都会承认，但 Kimi 已经相当接近。Anthropic 早在二月就准备好了 Fable 所源自的 Mythos，所以他们现在必然拥有 Mythos 2、Fable 6 或其他名称的模型，比二月版本强得多。
**English / Original**
>> Kimmy K3. Yeah. The one that came out last week has I mean it was almost as good as Fable, right? So >> well um I I think realistically Fable is is still uh clearly the smartest model. Um I think and anyone realistically would say that that's still the case but the chem model is getting quite close to fable. Um now anthropic had uh mythos from which fable is derived. I think they had that ready in February. So they've got they've got what they call I'm not sure what they call it but mythos 2 or or fable 6 or something something much better than what they had
## 00:16:09
**中文**
他们几乎肯定有。
**English / Original**
in February. They almost certainly have.
## 00:16:12
**中文**
不，不是“几乎”，他们现在肯定有，而且随时可以发布。>> 谈发布之前，你怎样看中国模型及其地缘政治？担心中国追上并领先吗？>> 中国 AI 公司用相对少的算力就能做到当前水平；若获得大量算力，很可能成为领导者，而他们迟早会拥有大量算力。
**English / Original**
Not almost certainly, they certainly have right now. So, and I think they could they they could release it at any time. >> Just before we get on to to releasing, how do you think about the Chinese models and the geopolitics of it? Are you worried about the Chinese catching up and getting ahead >> given that the Chinese AI companies are um are doing as well as they are with a relatively small amount of compute? Uh it seems though as that if they had a lot of compute um there's a good chance that they would be the leaders and at some point they probably will have a lot of compute.
## 00:16:53
**中文**
>> 所以他们会成为领导者？>> 很可能某个时候会。AI 的约束基本是电力与 AI 芯片；对于物理 AI、机器人，中国也有很优秀的机器人公司，甚至举办机器人体育赛事，不知道你是否看过。
**English / Original**
So they will go they will be the leaders. >> There's a good chance that they are the leaders at some point. Um, you can think of like the the constraints on AI are essentially electricity and AI chips. Um, and then for physical AI, the robots, uh, China's also got some very good robot companies. In fact, they have these like robot sporting events. I don't know if you've seen some of them.
## 00:17:22
**中文**
>> 看过。我上次去北京时见过机器人。>> 他们还举行机器人拳击或格斗比赛，很有娱乐性。我看到一个机器人头被打掉后仍继续战斗的视频，非常滑稽。机器人战斗比赛会很有观赏性。
**English / Original**
>> Yes, I have. I saw them. Last time I was in Beijing, I saw the the robots. Well, and then they have the sort of like a like a boxing match or fighting match with um the robots which is quite entertaining. And I I saw some video of robot that got his head knocked off kept fighting even with his head knocked off. It looked pretty funny. But um I mean in fact I think the the robot battles are going to be quite entertaining to watch.
## 00:17:45
**中文**
中国在机器人和数字 AI 上都很强。再看发电量：AI 取决于限制因素，无论芯片还是电力。中国发电量远超美国，事实上已经超过美国、欧洲和印度总和；我猜最终会达到美国四倍，大致与人口比例相当。
**English / Original**
Um >> but but just >> so so China's China is very strong on robots very strong on digital AI and and if you look at electricity production you say like AI is a function of whatever whatever the limiting factor is if it's chips or electricity China has far more electricity than the United States in fact China has more electricity than the United States Europe and India combined already um and is heading to and my guess is and it gets to four times the electricity production of the US which is roughly proportionate to the population.
## 00:18:21
**中文**
>> 美国政府该怎么做？一个威权政权在最强大技术上遥遥领先，想必令人警惕。美国通过出口管制等手段遏制中国。是否应该禁止使用 Kimi K3？>> 美国政府可以立法阻止美国公司使用中国模型，但阻止不了世界其他地区。
**English / Original**
>> What should the US government do about this? I mean if you you presumably it is a little alarming if you have an authoritarian regime far ahead in the most powerful technology and clearly what what the US government's been trying to do is with the export controls and so forth keep China back. Do you think they should ban the use of K3 kim K3 for example? Well, the US government can't they can they can pass some law that prevents US companies from using um Chinese models, but they can't stop the rest of the world from from using them.
## 00:18:54
**中文**
美国政府无权管辖中国或世界其他地方。>> 应该阻止美国公司使用吗？目前有这方面讨论。>> 我认为没有帮助，也阻止不了中国成为 AI 领导者。数字智能归根结底取决于 AI 算力：有多少芯片、有多少电力。当前限制其实更偏向——
**English / Original**
Um so it's it's not like the the US government has authority over China or the rest of the world. Um >> do you think they should stop US companies from using them? There's talk of that right now, right? >> I don't think that that helps. Um, and that won't stop China from being the leader in AI. The the really it's for for digital intelligence, it comes down to uh how much AI compute do you have? Well, how many chips chips do you have and how much power do you have? How much electricity do you have? Um so the constraint right now I think is actually slightly more on
## 00:19:36
**中文**
电力和冷却，而非 AI 芯片，因为芯片耗电极高。水耗几乎可以忽略不计，但电力需求非常高。>> 所以你考虑轨道数据中心？>> 中国之外，许多 AI 芯片不能开机的限制就是电力、冷却和电气设备。AI 芯片制造速度快于新增电力上线速度。>> 在中国？
**English / Original**
power and cooling than it is on AI chips because um the the power demands of the AI chips are very very high. Um we'll talk about water demands but the really the water usage of AI is negligible almost nothing. Um but the the electrical demand is very high. >> That's why you're thinking of orbital data centers presumably that's The constraint for any AI chips not being turned on in China is electricity and like power and cooling and the electrical equipment and everything. Um the rate at which AI chips are being made exceeds the rate at which new electricity is coming online >> in China.
## 00:20:15
**中文**
>> 中国之外。>> 明白。>> 美国禁止向中国出口最新 AI 芯片，所以中国有些缺芯片。>> 但它们使用现有芯片越来越高效，Kimi K3 的效率就是显著例子。>> 中国解决光刻问题的进度也比大多数人意识的更近，这会使其大批量制造 AI 芯片。因此——
**English / Original**
>> Um outside of China. >> Outside China. I see. Yeah. >> Um and since China, you know, the US has banned the export of the latest AI chips to China. Um, China is is somewhat chip starved. So, >> but they are becoming much more efficient at using the chips that they have and that one of the striking things of Kim K3, right, is how efficiently they >> and and and China is also um I I think closer than most people realize to solving uh the lithography problem which would enable them to make uh AI chips at at very large volumes. So, so I think there's,
## 00:20:57
**中文**
不应把对话全变成中国话题——目前中国之外的约束是电力，中国内的约束是芯片。一旦用太空 AI 数据中心解决电力约束，中国之外的限制又会变回芯片。>> 这意味着，若想建立总体安全约束，中美需要合作。你建议这里五家模型公司合作……>> 也许还应包括——
**English / Original**
you know, this shouldn't devolve into just a China conversation, but um but but so the current current constraint is is electricity outside of China. In China, the constraint is chips. Uh once the once we address the the power constraint with um AI data centers in space, uh then the constraint will once again be chips outside of China. That suggests to me that you need China and the US if you're going to have some overall safety constraints that they will need to work together if you are going to try and I mean you suggested you know the five makers here working >> uh probably it should include um the
## 00:21:38
**中文**
也在开发前沿 AI 模型的中国公司。>> 政府需要参与吗？>> 如果多家领先 AI 公司认为某个新模型非常危险，就应通知政府；若模型开发商又不采取措施，政府应行动限制模型发布。这可能是——
**English / Original**
Chinese companies that are doing frontier AI models too >> and do you think governments need to be involved? My recommendation would be that if if some of the leading companies in AI in AI say that this a new model is very dangerous, then they should inform the government and and and and a new model is very dangerous and that the company producing that model is not taking steps to address the danger, then then they should alert the government to take action um to limit the uh release of that model. Um and that could
## 00:22:20
**中文**
中国政府或美国政府采取行动；真正有能力介入的基本就是两国政府。>> 但人们可能担心让模型开发者决定。美国政府处理 Mythos 时，因网络安全风险而以出口管制相威胁，阻止模型广泛发布。政府似乎不愿放弃最终决定发布与否的权力。>> 我认为——
**English / Original**
be action by the Chinese government or action by the US government. Um it's it's really it's really just the US government and the Chinese government that that have the power to take action here. >> But the I guess people would be worried about relying on a group of model builders to decide whether to do this. is I mean if you look at what the US government has done with with mythos they stepped in because they were worried about the cyber security risks and they stepped in using you know threat of export controls to you know prevent the widespread release of this model. I find it hard to see how governments will not want to keep that power that they ultimately decide whether a model gets released. I think
## 00:23:01
**中文**
政府应保留这种权力。但并非政府人员自己发现 Mythos 的网络安全风险，而是 Amazon 发现并致电白宫。>> 所以模型厂商互查；发现担忧就通知政府，由政府行动。
**English / Original**
they should keep they should have that power. But it it wasn't as though someone in the government figured out that Mythos uh was had had some scary cyber security uh risks. It it was Amazon. >> Um Amazon highlighted this and Amazon called the White House. >> So you'd have a system where the model makers would check each other's work. If there was something that worried them, you'd tell the government. the government would then take action.
## 00:23:29
**中文**
>> 若风险严重且公司不处理，就是政府介入的时刻；这正是刚发生的事情。>> 什么时候需要建立机制？>> 最好立即开始。
**English / Original**
>> If there's something else was worrisome and that company was not doing anything to address that risk, then that would be the the moment for government to step in >> and take action, which is literally what just what occurred. >> Why does all this have to happen? >> Well, I think it would be good to do that I think immediately really. Yeah.
## 00:23:50
**中文**
>> 人们不断告诉我，鉴于模型进步速度，必须在六个月内建立某种体系。>> 六个月很长。>> 你认为要更快？>> 每天都有很多 AI 突破公告，有时一天多个。上周有多少？
**English / Original**
>> Yeah. That's what people keep telling me. We we have to get this some kind of system in the next six months because of the pace at which the models are improving. Yeah, six months is a long time. Um, >> so you think shorter than that? >> Well, I mean, there's there's so many AI breakthrough announcements, sometimes multiple per day. I mean, how many were there last week?
## 00:24:14
**中文**
>> 很多。>> 我已数不清。>> 所以不论 Demis 的方案还是其他方案，你们基本应现在就聚在一起建立机制。>> 我建议至少每周或每两周举行非正式电话，并给竞争对手一至两周提前访问权限。激励之所以有效，是因为竞争公司有能力判断安全——
**English / Original**
>> A lot. >> I lost track, you know. >> Yeah, a lot. >> Um, >> so so you you basically, you know, whether it's Demis' proposal or others, you need to get together and get this set up kind of now. It sounds like you're telling me. >> Yeah, I I I would recommend that we at least have some sort of informal g um weekly or bi-weekly um call and that there's that that um there's maybe a week or two weeks of of early access by competitors. And and this is why I think the incentives work is because if if you know competing companies I think are likely to understand if something is a security
## 00:24:54
**中文**
风险，也不会羞于指出对手模型应推迟发布。这套激励结构运行得很好，类似美国电影协会：行业组织决定电影分级、是否适合儿童，似乎成效不错。
**English / Original**
risk and they're they're not going to be shy about highlighting that that their their competitor's model should be delayed in release. does I think the incentive structure does work quite well there and and if the if and if and this is sort of how it works with the motion picture association you know the it's it's an industry group that uh decides how how movies should be rated you know whe whether it's appropriate for for young children or or not. Um and that's uh that seems to have worked quite well.
## 00:25:26
**中文**
只有公司做非常危险的事又拒绝降低风险时，才请政府介入。>> 难点在于，你们彼此不喜欢、不信任，还经常在社交媒体互相辱骂。领导者之间有强烈私人敌意，还能合作吗？
**English / Original**
So um and and and then you really just ask have ask the government to intervene if if some if a company is doing something very dangerous and refuses to take action to reduce the danger. >> Do you think this is a this is a tricky one, but you guys don't much like each other and you don't much trust each other. You're insulting each other on on social media constantly. So do you do you think you can do that with people that you dislike that that where there seems to be such kind of personal vitrial between some of these leaders?
## 00:25:57
**中文**
>> 能。我不喜欢 Sam Altman，因为……>> 你正在观看 Elon Musk 专访；如需提前观看其他采访，请点击上方链接订阅《经济学人》。现在回到采访。>> 如果你创办一家属于全世界、旨在开源 AI 的非营利组织，它却变成估值八千亿美元的闭源营利公司，你会说：“等等，这与我捐款支持的目标完全相反。”这就是我的不满，我认为合理。
**English / Original**
Um, yes. Well, I'm I'm not a fan of Sam Alman because um >> you're watching my interview with Elon Musk. If you want to get early access to other interviews, subscribe to The Economist by clicking the link above. Now, back to the interview. if you started a nonprofit that was meant to be an open-source AI company and um you know owned by the world uh and it somehow got turned into an $800 billion for-profit company with closed source I think you'd be like well wait a second that's uh the exact opposite of what I donated the money for that that's my issue I think it's a legitimate one
## 00:26:38
**中文**
Dario 大概也不喜欢 Sam Altman。Anthropic 团队离开 OpenAI，就是因为不信任 Sam；否则 Anthropic 不会存在，他们仍会留在 OpenAI。我认为 Dario 很有原则，十分关心事情和世界未来。我见过的 Anthropic 员工都没触发我的“邪恶探测器”，看起来动机良善。
**English / Original**
>> um and then Daario I think also is not a fan of Sam Alman because he felt In fact, the reason the anthropic team left OpenAI is because they they didn't trust Sam Alman. Otherwise, anthropic wouldn't exist. They would still be at OpenAI. Um I I think Dario is a very principled person. He cares about things a lot. Uh cares about the future of the world. And I think everyone I've met at Anthropic so far has been I'm like no one set off my evil detector, you know, they always seem seem like they're well-intentioned.
## 00:27:11
**中文**
通往地狱的道路主要由恶意铺成，当然也夹杂少数善意石块，所以不能自满。但若必须谈，我们会谈，为世界利益搁置私人分歧。>> 这让其他人很欣慰。
**English / Original**
Um, and uh, and the road to hell is, I think, mostly paved with bad intentions. There are a few well-intentioned paving stones in there. So, we we don't want to be complacent. Um, but, uh, you at the end of the day, if we have to talk, we'll talk. I mean, set aside our personal differences for the good of the world. >> Well, that's that's a very good thing for the rest of us to hear.
## 00:27:33
**中文**
>> 对。>> 再谈另一项风险。AI 在普通美国人中极不受欢迎，75% 的人担忧，我认为主要担心工作。Dario 曾说几年内 50% 的初级白领岗位会消失，而你在制造人形机器人。
**English / Original**
>> Yeah. Um >> can I can we turn to one other risk that people worry about particularly I think ordinary Americans where you know AI has become incredibly unpopular 75% of people are worried about it and I think they worry about their jobs >> and if you look at Dario has said famously what 50% of entry- level jobs entry level white collar jobs will be gone within a few years >> you're building humanoid robots.
## 00:27:59
**中文**
>> 是。他谈 Mythos 时也给自己挖了坑：先说它极其可怕，同时又说要发布。大家当然会问“什么意思？”[笑声] 他以后可能会换种措辞。若先吓坏所有人，再宣布发布可怕事物，人们自然会警觉。
**English / Original**
>> Yes. He he also said like I mean Dario did dig his own grave here regarding Mythos because he said you know mythos is like super scary terrifying and also by the way we're going to release it and then he's like what what do you mean [laughter] you know so I think he um I think probably in the future we'll choose his words differently. Um >> but what >> because obviously if if you make if you terrify everyone and then say oh we're releasing this terrifying thing people will obviously be alarmed about that.
## 00:28:27
**中文**
你已明确叫他们害怕，再发布可怕的东西，他们当然会害怕。>> 我不希望你惊吓大家，但 AI 多快、多大程度取代工作确实是重要辩论。正如你说，十年后人工智能会超过所有人类智能。
**English / Original**
you know, you've literally told them to be scared and then you release the scary thing and so they will be scared. That is natural. >> So I I certainly don't want you to alarm people, but I do think there is a really important debate about how quickly and to what degree AI displace people from jobs because it is as you say if in 10 years it's more it's there's more intelligence artificial intelligence than any human intelligence.
## 00:28:51
**中文**
>> 是。>> 至少在美国，你在人形机器人动力方面领先，也会影响工厂工作。你对岗位被取代的速度是否更接近 Dario？>> 我认为道路会颠簸，因为 AI 将能把任何工作都做得比任何人更好。
**English / Original**
>> Yes. And if you are and I think you're ahead of everyone at least in this country on >> powering humanoid robots that's that's also going to be >> kind of factory work. >> So do you are you part do you are you closer to Dario let's say in your sense of the pace at which jobs are going to be displaced. I I do think it's going to be a bumpy road. Um because AI will be able to do any job better than any person can do that job.
## 00:29:24
**中文**
数字工作会很快如此，凡是人在电脑或电话上做的事情，AI 很快都能完成。软件工程已经出现这种情况：AI 写软件优于至少 90% 的人类专业软件工程师。
**English / Original**
Um and that will be true very quickly of jobs that um are digital or really anything that involves a person at a computer or on a phone. AI could do all of that. Um will be able to do all of that very soon. I mean, for software engineering, we already have a situation where AI is better than at least 90% of humans um at writing software. 90% of professional software engineers at writing software.
## 00:29:59
**中文**
很快会优于 99%，然后达到人类完全无法竞争的程度，我称之为 Stockfish 水平。Stockfish 是国际象棋程序，它强到在小型计算机上也能轻易击败 Magnus Carlsen 或任何人。我怀疑手机运行 Stockfish 都能打败他。AI 写软件也会达到这种水平。
**English / Original**
And I mean, really, it's getting to the point where it'll be better than 99%. And then it'll get to the point where there's just no way to compete. It'll it'll get to what I call Stockfish level. >> So Stockfish, so Stockfish is the chess program >> that um Stockfish is so good at chess that you know it it will easily beat Magnus Carlson or anyone uh at chess um on a even running on a small computer. I suspect that you could probably run Stockfish on your phone and beat Magnus Carlson. That's how good it is at chess and that's how good AI will be at writing software
## 00:30:42
**中文**
>> 软件之外呢？>> 一切。>> 但装配等体力工作还需要人形机器人，而目前能力尚未具备。>> 所以我区分数字 AI 与机器人形式的物理 AI。机器人基本是执行器，具有一定本地智能，但由大型 AI 模型管理。我多次说过，未来工作——
**English / Original**
>> and beyond software >> beyond >> and that applies to everything >> everything >> everything >> everything but what about you for for physical jobs for assembly jobs you will also need the capability in humanoid robots which so far isn't there yet is it >> right so that's why I said digital AI and then physically manifested AI in the form of robots where the robot is is more or less an endeector. It would have some amount of local intelligence but be [clears throat] managed by a large AI model. Um and uh I and I've said many times I think work
## 00:31:22
**中文**
将成为可选项。
**English / Original**
is going to be optional.
## 00:31:25
**中文**
可以类比园艺：你不必种菜，商店里有完美蔬菜；也可以自己种，成品反而没那么完美，番茄不如店里饱满多汁，看起来有点手工感。但若去朋友家吃饭，他们用自家菜园的——
**English / Original**
So I mean let me mean so so I think maybe maybe a good a good uh comparison would be um gardening like you don't have to garden you know you don't like you you don't have to grow vegetables in in your garden you can go to the store and they're going to be pristine vegetables or you could grow vegetables in your garden and they will actually be uh less perfect. your tomatoes not going to be as plump and juicy as the ones at the store. They they'll, you know, look a little artisal. Um, but, you know, if if you go to a friend's house and they they make dinner at and with vegetables from their
## 00:32:07
**中文**
蔬菜做菜，会显得很有心意。
**English / Original**
garden, it's it's a nice touch.
## 00:32:10
**中文**
未来工作就会像这样。>> 我理解；那种世界里我会很无助，因为完全不会园艺。但即使电脑都比人强，人们仍喜欢彼此下棋。再考虑政治。
**English / Original**
>> So, that's this is what work is going to be like, >> you know, I get that. I mean, in that world, I would be hopeless because I can't garden to save my life. But, I get the idea. People still like playing chess with each other even though every computer's better. Let's just let's just think about the politics of this. Yeah.
## 00:32:23
**中文**
你描述的是十年内几乎所有工作都能由智能更好完成，而这种智能又给你这样的人带来巨大回报；你是世界首富。失业、被取代的人或许去园艺，但靠什么生活？>> 全民高收入。>> 如何实现？
**English / Original**
>> Because it sounds you're describing a world where within 10 years pretty much every job can be done better by an intelligence. >> And >> yes, >> you're seeing huge returns to this intelligence to people like you, you're the wealthiest man in the world. >> What people who lose their jobs, who are displaced, who may go off and garden, but how are they going to live? And what kind of I mean, it sounds to me >> universal high income, >> but how are you going to get there?
## 00:32:48
**中文**
谈谈政治。现在多数国家民众对此非常担忧、反对。我觉得风险是，我们走向革命，而非顺利抵达你描绘的乌托邦。>> 道路会颠簸，我并没说会一帆风顺。很多工作因计算机消失。“computer”一词过去指从事计算的人，那曾是一种职业。
**English / Original**
Let's talk about the politics of this cuz right now >> we if we look at the political pressures in most countries people are very very worried about this very against it. >> I mean it seems to me that there's a risk that we are heading more for revolution than for an easy route to this nirvana you're playing out. >> I mean it will be a bumpy road. I'm not suggesting it will be sort of that everything will be smooth sailing here. Um, so I mean there are many jobs that used to exist that don't exist because of computers. I mean the the word computer used to refer to a person doing computations like that used to be a job
## 00:33:29
**中文**
网上能看到整栋摩天楼坐满计算人员的照片，他们计算银行存款利息等。计算机出现前，长期如此；早期计算机也昂贵难用。这次不同之处在于变化速度急剧加快。但当年也有人因银行利息计算工作消失而不满——
**English / Original**
description of a person. And you can see pictures online of um of buildings that have entire skyscrapers of just filled with people doing calculations to to do things like calculate the interest on your bank balance. um this is how things were done for a long time until computers came around and even in the beginning computers were very expensive and hard to use. Uh so so the the thing that's different here is that the the pace of change is radically accelerated. So, but still people, you know, some people were upset that they their job of calculating bank interest
## 00:34:10
**中文**
如今大概很难找到想做这份工作的人。我建议大家读一些科幻小说来想象未来；我读过最好的 AI 未来描绘，是 Iain M. Banks 的“文化”系列。
**English / Original**
[clears throat] would would no longer be available. Um, but now I think mo there's you be hardressed to find people who want to do that job. Um, so I I think I I have a suggestion for say what say science fiction books people might want to read to get a sense of what the future will be like. And the the best envisioning of an AI future that I've read are the books by Ian Banks, the culture books.
## 00:34:40
**中文**
>> 我正在读《Excession》，因为你推荐才开始。不过我不觉得那个未来很吸引人，因为人类没有主体性。>> 有主体性。>> 相比“心智”微乎其微。>> 只在小范围。>> 讽刺的是，Iain Banks 是社会主义者，政治哲学很不同。
**English / Original**
>> I'm just reading accession. So I' I've thanks to you I've started reading these >> but I actually don't find that future a terribly appealing one because I don't think humans have agency in that future. >> They have agency >> minimal compared to the mind >> small way >> but the irony I mean Ian Banks as you know was a socialist. Um Ian Banks had a very different political philosophy.
## 00:35:03
**中文**
>> 我不完全同意。先承认我们可能抵达那里。我担心的是过程。我们生活在民主制度中，民众非常忧虑。两个问题：是否必须从你这样的人大规模再分配给失业者？你是否应缴更多税、对资本征更高税，以资助某种全民收入？否则人们靠什么生活？
**English / Original**
>> I not sure that's I'm not sure I would entirely agree with that. >> Let's agree that that could be where we end up. I'm con I'm concerned about the road and we live you know we live in democracies and people are very worried about this. So I guess two questions. Firstly, do you have to have massive redistribution from people like you to the people who are losing their jobs? Do you need to have do you need to pay more tax? Do you have much higher taxes on capital so that you fund what some kind of universal income? Otherwise what do people live off?
## 00:35:35
**中文**
>> 财政部直接给每个人发支票即可。>> 收入从哪来？按经济学，直接发支票会通胀。>> 我们努力思考的很多旧概念过去相关，未来将不再相关。
**English / Original**
I I think that that the Treasury should just simply issue people checks. >> But where's the revenue coming from? I mean, I'm enough of an economist. If you just issue checks, you're going to have inflation. >> This is like a lot of what we're trying to think about is these things were relevant in the past, they will not be relevant in the future.
## 00:35:55
**中文**
通胀只是货币与商品服务之比。若商品服务产出大幅增长，比如增长一千倍，就可以打印货币——如今是修改数据库、创造货币——只要货币创造速度低于商品服务增长速度，实际上会通缩。我的预测是：问题将是通缩，而非通胀，因为商品——
**English / Original**
So like inflation is simply the ratio of money to the to to goods and services. So if the goods and services output increases dramatically if it increases you know a th000%. You can increase the you can literally print or these days change the database print money it's you create money in the in the database um provided the creation of that money uh is less than the rate at which goods and services increase um you you will actually have deflation. So I'll make a prediction which is that deflation will be the issue not inflation because because as the output of goods
## 00:36:36
**中文**
服务产出若增长快于货币供应，就会通缩。>> 我完全愿意相信，你可能是对的。但我纠结的是，怎样从当前极化、愤怒、恐惧的政治环境抵达乌托邦。人们也许害怕到试图阻止它；即使阻止不了，你的企业也可能被国有化，极左政府上台，税收暴增，经济因恐惧而崩溃。
**English / Original**
and services increases um if if the output of goods and services increases faster than the money supply you will have deflation. >> I'm actually I'm perfectly willing to believe that. You may well be right. No, absolutely. You may well be right. But I I'm I'm really >> hung up on how we get from the current polarized, angry, fearful policy we have now to this nirvana. And and I think you could you can paint a picture where people are so scared by this, >> you know, they essentially try to stop it. Maybe they can't, but you get nationalized. There's a kind of, you know, far-left government. Uh there's exorbitant tax increases. is the kind of economy crumbles because people are so
## 00:37:17
**中文**
你描述的未来确实有些可怕，眼下如何处理政治？>> 它既令人振奋，又令人恐惧。老实说，无论哪一天，甚至同一天内，我都可能从兴奋转为恐惧。我不是故作坦率，也不是抱持“万事皆美好”的盲目乐观主义，声称毫无风险。我是说确有风险。
**English / Original**
worried about a future which does sound quite scary as you describe it. So how do you how do you handle the politics now? >> It's exhilarating and terrifying >> but if if you were in Yeah. >> honestly and if you ask me on any given day I I in fact even intraday I've gone from exhilaration to terror regarding AI. So I I want to be clear. I'm not like I'm not sort of some, >> you know, I'm not trying to be sort of candid here and and just be some, oh, everything's wonderful, some panglossian >> view of the world where everything's, you know, going to be great. No, no, no risk. I'm I'm saying there is some risk.
## 00:37:53
**中文**
>> 这点我们同意。我想更务实地考虑现在能做什么。你已说明模型开发者可做什么；政府应该做什么？>> 我们协调起来、互相指出各自模型中的问题，以降低下行风险，大概会有帮助。
**English / Original**
Um, >> I think we agree on that. I guess I'm trying to be more sort of, you know, small bore and practical and think about what can be done now to limit those risks. And you gave a very strong argument for what you and your fellow model makers could do. What should government >> probably would be good to for us to >> coordinate and and just highlight issues that we see in each other's models um to mitigate >> downside risk?
## 00:38:18
**中文**
>> 政府该做什么？你是否应缴更多税来资助更多转移支付？>> 首先，我确实缴很多税，创下过个人纳税额世界纪录。>> 因为你也是世界首富。>> 在那之前就是。[笑声] 我估计会缴数万亿美元税，我对此没意见。
**English / Original**
>> What should the government should you be paying more tax to fund more transfer programs? >> Well, first of all, I do I do pay a lot of tax. Um, >> so um I in fact I um I set a record for the most amount of taxes ever paid by a by a human. >> That's also because you're the world's richest man. >> Well, even before that. [laughter] So my guess is that I will pay many trillions in tax and I'm fine with that.
## 00:38:50
**中文**
事情就是如此。但在货币不再重要的未来，税也会变得不太重要。>> 怎样让人们感到自己分享收益？例如给他们 SpaceX、Tesla 股份。>> SpaceX 上市的原因之一，就是让公众参与、拥有公司一部分。私人公司上市前，股东数量受严格限制；成为上市公司后可以有数百万股东，私人公司——
**English / Original**
Um so yeah um that's just the way it's going to be. But I don't think t in a future where money is relevant. I think taxation also becomes somewhat irrelevant. >> And what about giving people a sense that they have a share in the upside? >> Sure. >> Giving people shares in SpaceX, in Tesla, do you think that's and there's a lot of talk about this right now. Um >> well, one of the reasons I took SpaceX public is so that the public could participate in they could own a piece of SpaceX. Um whereas as a private company we're very limited in the number of shareholders we're allowed to have before going public. So as a public company um we can have millions of shareholders as a private company we
## 00:39:31
**中文**
只能有几千名股东。>> 是否应像阿拉斯加永久基金那样分配股份？有人说 Trump Accounts 可作为工具，把你的部分股权给普通美国人。>> 我的股票期权要缴 40% 联邦所得税；我约 30% 时间在加州，还要按比例缴加州约 15% 的税，合计——
**English / Original**
limited to just a few thousand shareholders. Um, so >> do you think there should be distribution of shares like you know the Alaska wealth fund is there for which could you imagine a world and some people talk about the Trump accounts being a kind of vehicle for this that you a share of your equity goes to ordinary Americans >> right well in the taxes that like that I that I pay I mean I'll I'll you know so for my stock options I pay 40% uh income tax on a national basis and then because I spend I don't know about 30% of my time in California there about I pay another sort of roughly a third of
## 00:40:13
**中文**
大约 45%，粗略说接近一半。死后还会再征约 45% 的遗产税。最终我大概只留下原有财富的四分之一。财富给我的唯一东西，是在一段时间内控制公司方向。
**English / Original**
the California state taxes which is are now around 15%. So, so I I pay about 45% in taxes just so people know know this, you know, I don't know if it's quite so roughly half. >> Um, then when I die, there'll be another sort of 45% roughly half that that will be taxed. Um, so at the end of the day, it probably I'll have a quarter of of what I what I whatever I have. But the um I I think the only thing it gives me is that for some period of time I would have control of the direction of the companies.
## 00:40:52
**中文**
基本仅此而已，直到 AI 聪明到接管一切，届时控制公司也不重要。>> 说到这里，人们还担忧世界方向由极少数权力巨大的人塑造，你位于名单顶端。
**English / Original**
So it's not um that that's pretty much all it gets me and until I guess the AI is so smart that it's b it's it's in charge and and that point controlling companies won't really matter. Well, let's talk about that because I think one of the other things that worries people about the direction we're heading in, and I'm going to caricature it, but people think that the direction of the world is being shaped by a very small number of incredibly powerful people. And you are right at the top of that list.
## 00:41:22
**中文**
>> 这与过去有什么不同？>> 我同意，[笑声] 一直如此。>> 何时不是？>> 的确始终如此，但正如你生动描述的，变化速度极快。先谈你对公司的控制。IPO 后你拥有约 80% 投票权，据我了解，只有你自己控制的股东投票才能罢免你。顺便说，其他 AI 公司也如此：Alphabet 由 Larry 和 Sergey 控制。
**English / Original**
>> But what else is But is is this different from the from >> I agree with you. I think I [laughter] think it was like that. >> When wasn't that the case? >> It was ever thus, but it was ever it is a as you've described very vividly, it's an incredibly rapid change. And so let's start with control of your company which you definitely have now. Um after the IPO you basically you have what 80% odd of voting shares and as I understand it >> you can only be removed by a vote of shares which you yourself control. So so tell me if I'm wrong but I think companies in that bucket by the way the AI companies like um Google's in that in that bucket. Alphabet is controlled by Larry and Sergey. Um
## 00:42:00
**中文**
>> 但你的情况更极端。>> 他们也有投票控制权；Mark Zuckerberg 控制 Meta，并全力投入 AI。我想他上周发布了一个模型，Meta 也会成为领先 AI 公司之一。>> 一个人对公司拥有如此大控制权是否合理？
**English / Original**
>> but I think yours is more extreme. the inability the same level of they they have um voting control of of that company. Uh Mark Zuckerberg has control of a matter um and and uh you know Mark is trying very hard on the AI front and I think probably will will also have a leading AI he's made I think he released one last week. Um so I think he's he's he he'll be one of the you know Meta will be one of the AI companies. But is it sensible for one person to have so much control over a company?
## 00:42:32
**中文**
>> 我只需要确保能专注长期——这里指五到十年。上市公司面临每季度交出漂亮业绩的压力，因而不愿投资五到十年后才回报的项目。SpaceX 的目标是把意识扩展到地球之外，在月球、火星及太阳系其他地方建立——
**English / Original**
>> Um well it I really just need to make sure that I can focus on long-term by longterm I just mean in the 5 to 10 years. Um, so one of the challenges with being a public company is that is are the sort of the pressure to to have uh great results every single quarter, but and and and to not really invest in things that may only pay off in 5 to 10 years. And um you know the case of SpaceX I need I I want to extend consciousness beyond Earth and and have a
## 00:43:13
**中文**
不断发展的文明。我认为最终投资回报会非常高，但短期要在月球基地、火星基地上投入巨资，人们会抱怨：“你花太多钱上火星，本季度盈利不及预期。”我会说，这明明写在 S-1 招股书里，是我们明确列出的事项。但他们仍会因毛利率略低于预测而不高兴——
**English / Original**
growing civilization on the moon, Mars and elsewhere in the solar system. the return I I think ultimately this would have a very high return on investment but in the short term we'll be spending all this money on a moon base or and a Mars base and then people are like I you know I'm going to get all this pressure for like well you missed your earnings this quarter because you spent too much on Mars. I'm like yes by the way that was in the in the S1 perspectus and it's is literally listed as a thing we will do. Um, so but but but they still get grumpy about these things, you know, cuz they're like, well, you had whatever, you know, you said your gross margin would be this and it's actually slightly
## 00:43:50
**中文**
并惩罚公司；做空者一拥而上，压力很大。所以我需要一种办法告诉大家：我们将专注五至十年甚至更长期的投资，这会压低短期利润。
**English / Original**
worse and now now we're going to punish you and and the short sellers all descend upon you and you get a lot of pressure that >> Yeah. So, I just need some way to sort of, >> you know, say like, listen guys, we're we're going to focus on 5 to 10 year or longer time horizon investments. this will depress our short-term earnings.
## 00:44:09
**中文**
但从长期看——我们有很多持长期观点的投资者。我很喜欢散户；总体而言，他们很有洞察力，视野也很长期。压力部分来自激励结构：投资组合经理的薪酬、晋升取决于组合表现，所以对季度盈利施压可以理解，他们——
**English / Original**
But the long I mean if you take a long-term view and there are investors we have many investors that do take a long-term view. In fact, I'm a big fan of the the retail investors. In fact, I find our retail investors um on balance have the have the they're very insightful and and have very long-term views. Um but but part of this comes if you say what's the incentive structure is the for portfolio managers it's sort of understandable why why they put so much pressure on on a on quarterly earnings because um their their compensation and their um and whether they get promoted or not is dependent on how their portfolio does and they they
## 00:44:49
**中文**
只有几年作这些决定，有时一年内就按结果考核。承受即时回报压力后，他们也向公司施压。理解激励结构，行为便自然可解释。
**English / Original**
have they only have a few years to to make these decisions. Um and then they're evaluated based on those decisions over the course of sometimes only a year or less. And uh and so since since they're under pressure to have immediate returns, they then put companies under pressure to have immediate returns. So once you in understand the incentive structure, the behavior naturally follows.
## 00:45:15
**中文**
>> 关键人物风险呢？假如你明天不幸遭遇意外；你完全控制这些公司，有没有离开你后的计划？>> 它们几年内会运作得很好。SpaceX 有清晰的“太空路线图”，Tesla 也有路线图。
**English / Original**
>> What about though keyman risk? I mean what happens you know I heaven forbid but what happens if you get run over by the proverbial bus tomorrow you know it is you to you have total control over these companies do you have a plan for how they would progress without you? >> I I think they would actually do very well for for for several years um and you know there there's a clear road map for or space map I should say for SpaceX. Um, and there's a road map actually for Tesla literally. Um, so I think I think there's, you know, if you
## 00:45:56
**中文**
看看 Steve Jobs 之后的 Apple。他留下战略愿景和一批产品构想，Apple 经营得很好。但缺少 Steve Jobs 那样的创造天才后，失去的是惊人的突破性产品。
**English / Original**
look at Apple after Steve Jobs, you know, Steve Jobs had, you know, he he he had a strategic vision and a bunch of products that um that that he had had ideas for and Apple has done very well. Um, but but but when you don't have a creative genius like Steve Jobs, you don't you you what what you miss what what Apple's missing are the incredible breakthrough products.
## 00:46:22
**中文**
它仍制造优秀手机和电脑，却没有推出 Jobs 级突破产品。>> 类比而言，这就是你为所有公司带来的价值。你长期谈火星殖民和多行星文明。
**English / Original**
>> Yeah. >> So they make amazing phones, you know, great computers. Um, but Apple hasn't come up with a sort of Steve's Jobs Steve Jobs level breakthrough product. >> So by analogy, that's what you bring to all of your companies. >> You mentioned Mars. You know, most people think of you as the man who wants to, you know, create a colony on Mars. So, we have multilanetary civilization.
## 00:46:48
**中文**
但如今似乎更聚焦 AI 和未来十年，还更兴奋于把月球作为部署轨道 AI 卫星的基地。你对火星的关注减少了吗？
**English / Original**
>> I've been saying that for such a long time. >> You have, but now you seem more focused on AI and what AI will do in the next 10 years. And you you sound much more excited about using the moon as a base from which to, you know, pop out orbital uh AI satellites. Have you shifted your attention away from Mars or are you as interested in colonizing Mars as you ever were?
## 00:47:11
**中文**
>> 我关心能最大限度把意识传播到未来的行动，让意识的未来光锥尽可能大：出现令人兴奋的未来，人类成为遨游星际的文明，非反乌托邦科幻中的美好事物成为现实。我想要《星际迷航》《星球大战》式未来。顺便说，《星球大战》是我在影院看的第一部电影。
**English / Original**
>> I I'm I'm interested in the set of actions that propagate consciousness into the future to the maximum degree possible. So that the future light cone of consciousness is as big as big as we could, you know, like that, you know, there's there's an exciting future where there's where we're a space fairing civilization out there among the stars and and the the great things that are envisioned in the non-disystopian sci-fi books and movies come become real one day. I sort of want the Star Trek you know, Star Wars future. The Star Wars was the first movie I ever saw in a theater, by the way.
## 00:47:53
**中文**
>> 真的吗？>> 它大概深刻影响了我。我约六岁，完全震撼，觉得那是见过最伟大的东西。>> 你的一生都在努力实现它吗？>> 是。小时候没想到会这样，如今人生有些超现实，难以相信这些事真的在发生。
**English / Original**
>> Really, >> it's probably maybe it had a profound effect on me, I suppose. Um, so I remember it was I was >> Oh, blew my mind, honestly. I was I think I was 6 years old and um I was like, this is the greatest thing I've ever seen. >> Has your life been about making that happen? >> Yeah, it I mean it I didn't think it would be, but at the when I was young, but um and my my life feels somewhat surreal. like I can't believe these things are actually happening, you know.
## 00:48:20
**中文**
这让我相信模拟理论：我做的事情荒诞到难以相信是真实的。我们有史上最大、最强的飞行物 Starship，并计划每小时发射不止一次。
**English / Original**
Um >> I think the world >> makes me believe in simulation theory. >> Yeah. >> Where it's like, well, this like the things I'm doing are so preposterous that um it's hard to believe they're real. I mean, we've got Starship, which is the largest, most powerful flying object ever made. Um, and we intend to launch that more than once per hour.
## 00:48:48
**中文**
>> 我读到过。人们可争论多快实现，但按你的记录，应假设迟早会实现。>> 会实现。>> 我也被这个世界震撼，只是观察层次更朴素。对我而言，AI 演进和模型能力本身已令人难以置信。
**English / Original**
>> I know. I read that and we can, you know, people can quibble about how quickly it happens, but I think based on your track record, we should assume it will happen at some point. >> It will happen. I I'm just sort of struck that when I when I I am as as blown away by this world as you are and I'm I watch it from a from a much more naive level, but for me the whole evolution of AI and the capabilities of these models is in and of itself so mind-blowing.
## 00:49:15
**中文**
>> 基本按我预想发生。>> 真的吗？>> 是，不只我，很多人预测过。Ray Kurzweil 的预测尤其准确。>> 奇点临近。回到当下。我们谈了公司控制权，你也充分说明理由。通过 Starlink，你还拥有巨大地缘政治权力；我是客户，产品很好。
**English / Original**
>> It's pretty much happening as I as I thought thought it would. >> Is it? >> Yeah. >> Oh, that's interesting. [laughter] Um and not just me, many people um predicted this. I think Ray Koswell predict Ray Koswell's predictions have >> been remarkably accurate. >> Yeah. The singularity. >> Yeah. >> Approaching. Let's go back more immediately to the here and now. We've talked about concentration of control in your companies. You've made a very good case for why you should have it. You also have through Starlink incredible geopolitical power. I mean, I'm I'm one of your customers. Excellent product.
## 00:49:52
**中文**
>> 很好。>> 没有 Starlink，乌克兰会陷入严重困境。乌政府公开多次感谢它对防卫至关重要。你最近阻止占领区俄罗斯人使用。>> 我们从未向俄罗斯出售。>> 但他们获得并使用，你如今阻止了。>> 他们通过乌克兰订购终端，再走私到——
**English / Original**
>> Great. >> But without them, the Ukrainians would have been in serious serious trouble. And >> obvious the Ukrainian government has publicly thanked Stalin many times for being instrumental in uh defending Ukraine. >> And you recently decided to prevent the Russians in the occupied territories from having access to Starink. Um, well, no, we we we were never at any point selling Starink to Russians. Um, >> but they were grabbing it, right? They were using it and you've now stopped them from doing that. Well, what they they they essentially got Starlink units um that they ordered through Ukraine and then and then smuggled them into uh the
## 00:50:32
**中文**
俄军所在的乌东，并在一些情况下用于攻击。为处理此事，我们与乌政府建立获批终端白名单。副作用是许多只是为工作或教育上网的无辜 Starlink 用户如今失去服务。
**English / Original**
uh into eastern Ukraine where the Russians are um and were then using them um in some cases for um attacks. Um now the in order to address this um what we worked with the Ukrainian government to create a white list of approved Starling terminals. Now this has some downsides because a whole bunch of people who were just innocent users of Starlink and just trying to access the internet for work or for education now don't have Starlink.
## 00:51:06
**中文**
>> 这些是后果重大的地缘政治决定。拥有决定战争结果的权力感觉如何？由你拥有是否合适？>> 我不确定我们决定乌克兰战争最终结果。我希望尽快达成和平协议；两三年来边界几乎未动，每天都有许多人死在前线。
**English / Original**
>> These are geopolitical decisions of consequence. How do you feel about having that power? You can determine the outcome of wars. H h h h h h h h h h h h h h h h h h h h h How does that feel? And is it right that you should have that power? >> Well, I I'm not sure we we're determining the ultimate outcome of the, you know, that the say the war in Ukraine. Um, you know, I I I think uh I do hope that that that there's some sort of peace agreement reached soon because um for like 2 or 3 years now the border has barely moved and um and every day there are lots of people dying at the front
## 00:51:48
**中文**
有人幻想俄罗斯应完全撤军，但不现实。必须务实达成和平。最糟糕的是再让人毫无意义地死三年。
**English / Original**
line and um and I think there's a lot of wishful thinking here of of people saying well Russia should completely withdraw But this is not realistic. Um I really think there needs to be some um you know a a a a piece that that that is that you know we have to be pragmatic about this. What we can't what I think would be terrible is if if there's if there's another three years of people dying senselessly at the front lines um with with and you have to say like well
## 00:52:28
**中文**
你怎样向前线阵亡者的孩子解释？俄方也一样，士兵被征召送去。我厌恶那些在豪华场所享用七道菜晚宴、同时对俄罗斯应撤军高谈阔论的外交官。俄罗斯不会撤军，必须接受符合现实的和平。>> 你是否有责任推动局势向自己认为正确的和平方向倾斜？
**English / Original**
You know, how do you explain to the the the children of of the men that are dying at the front lines? Russia on the Russian side, too. By the way, they're being conscripted and sent there. I am quite offended by sort of fancy diplomats who have you know seven course dinners in in you know in luxurious places while people are dying at the front lines and who who pontificate about how Russia should withdraw but they're not going Russia Russia's not going to withdraw. So there really needs to be an accepted piece along along those lines. Um, >> and do you think it's your responsibility to play a role in tipping the scales towards what you see as the
## 00:53:09
**中文**
也就是正确的和平道路？
**English / Original**
right way to peace?
## 00:53:11
**中文**
>> 我长期主张和平。几年前就发文说需要向俄罗斯作一定让步。这不是亲俄，而是务实；否则人们多年死去、一无所获，而事实正是如此。
**English / Original**
>> I I I would I I've been advocating peace for a long time. I, you know, I I I posted a few years ago that that that there really needs to be some concession here to Russia. Um, this is not me being pro-Russia, I'm just being pragmatic. um or people will die for years uh with nothing achieved and that is exactly what happened.
## 00:53:36
**中文**
>> 乌克兰目前凭借强大无人机能力打击俄境内，表现不错，普遍认为战争天平在变化。>> 但它不会夺回那些领土，不会发生。
**English / Original**
>> I don't know. I mean the Ukrainian are doing >> the Ukrainians are doing pretty well right now at >> you know with their incredible drone capacity hitting inside Russia and the and the kind of general consensuses that you know the the the balance of the war is shifting. But my point is not so much about >> is not going to retake those territories. it is not going to happen.
## 00:53:57
**中文**
>> 我真正关心的是，你通过 Starlink 拥有开关能力来塑造冲突，由个人拥有如此罕见的权力是否合适。>> 你认为我该怎么不同地做？
**English / Original**
>> My interest is really on whether you think given that you you have through Starlink you have an incredible power whether it's appropriate that you should wield it and that's quite rare that an individual actor has such power by turning on and off a capability to shape conflict. >> Well, is this something you think I should do differently?
## 00:54:19
**中文**
>> 我认为你支持乌克兰是对的。俄罗斯侵略因许多原因令人震惊，你的行动很重要。>> 我深入研究过冲突背景，了解确切情况。
**English / Original**
>> I mean I think you were right to support Ukraine. I think that, you know, as as it won't surprise you, I I think that the Russian aggression was, you know, for many many reasons an appalling aggression and I I think that that was an important thing that you did. >> Yeah. I mean, I did a a very deep dive into the background of that conflict to understand exactly what was going on.
## 00:54:41
**中文**
让我想到老话：战争中没有天使。国内政治也有类似基调。你花大量钱支持 Donald Trump 连任，选后通过 DOGE 积极削减开支、重塑政府。
**English / Original**
Um, and um, I'm reminded of the old adage that there are no angels in war. It's a similar tone, I think, about domestic politics where you've, you know, you've you've played a big role domestically, politically here. You spend a lot of money on Donald Trump's re-election. After the election, you got very actively involved, you know, through Doge, you tried to cut a lot of spending, reshape the government.
## 00:55:10
**中文**
结果并不很成功，削减远少于目标。回看是否后悔过度介入政治？>> 我确实介入得太多，有点失控。DOGE 的目标是处理庞大赤字。
**English / Original**
How do you feel that wasn't hugely successful in the sense that, you know, there wasn't nearly as much spending cut as you tried? How do you, as you look back on that, do you regret getting so involved in politics? Do you think it was a good thing to do? >> I think I I think I got a little too involved in politics. Got carried away, frankly. Um, >> so the um, you know, the the goal with the sort of Doge stuff was was to try to do something about the the deficit, which is massive.
## 00:55:38
**中文**
债务利息已超过战争部支出；把战争部和美国情报开支相加仍小于利息。我们必须审视支出，确保合理、不浪费、不用于欺诈。我因此受到很多抨击，但人们不了解——
**English / Original**
>> Um, where the interest payments exceed the amount of money spent on the Department of War. like basically if you add up all the money spent on um what is now the department of war and the uh and and intelligence in the US uh that is smaller than the interest payments on the debt. So we we we we need to sort of take a close look at spending um and make sure that uh money is being spent in sensible ways and that it is not wasted or spent on on on fraudulent activities. Um and um I got a lot of flack from this for this obviously. Um but the the people don't understand just how um
## 00:56:20
**中文**
DOGE 团队批准付款有多简单：只要求收款人联系方式或资金用于预定目的的证据。我们一再被告知要为非洲重要事业汇款，但指令却汇往华盛顿特区的 Deloitte 和 Touche，而不是非洲。我们请其联系收款人，以便直接汇款，随后便沉默。
**English / Original**
simple it was for for the Doge team to approve payments. Um if if we h literally we we we just asked to have the contact information of the recipient um or some evidence that say money was going to um its intended purpose. Um but over and over that we've told we need to wire money for some sort of important cause in Africa and we're like okay but the wiring wiring instructions are to deote and tuish in DC in Washington DC not to Africa so we would like to send the money to Africa can you please connect us with the recipients so we can send them the money directly and then we get silence
## 00:57:02
**中文**
>> 不必重辩 DOGE。我相信美国政府有大量浪费。>> 比任何人想象的严重。>> 但你骤然关闭许多项目，确实造成不必要的痛苦，这是公平批评。>> 不。>> 你完全不接受？
**English / Original**
>> I have we don't need to relitigate Doge I have no doubt that there was there's a lot of waste in the US government. I think probably >> much worse than anyone could possibly imagine. >> But the way I I mean I think there is it is a fair criticism that the way you shut down a whole bunch of programs probably in fact certainly caused unnecessary suffering. I mean that no >> no >> you you don't buy that at all.
## 00:57:25
**中文**
>> 只造成很多抱怨。>> 你正在观看 Elon Musk 专访……现在回到采访。>> 直白地问：没有任何非洲儿童因突然中断而死亡？>> 零。
**English / Original**
>> It it caused a lot of complaining. >> You're watching my interview with Elon Musk. If you want to get early access to other interviews, subscribe to The Economist by clicking the link above. Now back to the interview. >> You don't So you don't buy the idea that anybody to put it really crudely and simply any kid in Africa died because of the suddeness with which >> zero?
## 00:57:46
**中文**
>> 我认为不对；我有记者在非洲……>> 有成千上万 NGO 可以接手。>> 并非所有人像你行动这么快。若抗逆转录病毒药物资金一夜切断，人们拿不到药就会死。>> 只有无法获得替代资金才会。Gates Foundation 有五百亿美元。
**English / Original**
>> I just don't think that's right. I just don't think my I mean I've had people reporting in Africa who >> how many NOS's are there that could that could that could step in because bear in mind this it was it happened quickly. So this and there are literally tens of thousands of NOS's. >> Yeah. Not everyone functions as fast as you do. If if if if funding is cut off for antiretrovirals overnight and it just stops, then people will die when they don't have access to them and it just >> No, no, only if they cannot get funding for that. But with the Gates Foundation has $50 billion.
## 00:58:19
**中文**
他们呢？还有许多组织；MacKenzie 那位女士也捐了五百亿美元。>> 现实是，许多国家 USAID 是最大资助者。>> USAID 是政治组织。
**English / Original**
>> What's what what about them? >> What about any one of a number of organizations? What about um the uh um >> what Mackenzie whatever her last name is used to be uh gave $50 billion. What about that? But you know, let's let's be practical. In many of these countries, USAD was the biggest funer. But I I don't want to have a >> USD was a political organization.
## 00:58:41
**中文**
>> 也许，但也是医疗系统最大资助者。>> 我确信它从事政权更迭。USAID 资金没有停止，只转到国务院。>> 的确停止，非洲大量项目关闭。>> 这些说法虚假荒谬。欺诈组织被停资时，难道会承认“请继续资助欺诈”，还是编一个令人同情的悲惨故事？
**English / Original**
>> It may also have been that, but it was the biggest funer of of health care system. So I I I am I'm very sure of of regime change >> and and there may well be benefits from having >> also USID funding was not stopped. It was moved to the state department. >> It was stopped. There were huge numbers of things shut down in Africa that were that were claims of this. These claims are false. They're nonsense and and absolute nonsense. But but obviously just for when funding is stopped for fraudulent organizations or for something, do you think they're going to say do you think they're going to say, "Well, we please keep funding the fraud,
## 00:59:23
**中文**
显然是后者，事实也如此。>> 对“零人死亡”我有异议。我其实同情 Trump 政府推动援助制度改革。
**English / Original**
or do you think they're going to come up with a sad story that sounds sympathetic in order to get the funding restored?" Obviously, it will be the latter. And that's exactly what they did. But zero died because >> well that's what I that's what I that's what I would take issue with. I think you can I actually have a lot of sympathy for the change of the aid regime that the US under the Trump administration has precipitated.
## 00:59:48
**中文**
但其速度和突然程度几乎必然造成不必要痛苦和死亡，两者可以同时成立。>> 完全错误。资金远少于 Gates Foundation 或 MacKenzie Bezos 基金会等私人基金会能支持的规模；她捐了数百亿美元，Gates Foundation 也有数百亿。
**English / Original**
However, I think the pace and the suddeness with which it happened will almost certainly have caused unnecessary suffering and deaths. And I think both of those can >> No, I think that's totally false. >> Okay. Well, >> and obviously false because there there are are the amount of funding we're talking about uh is far less than what can be done than what can be supported via private uh via foundations like the Gates Foundation uh or Mackenzie Bas's Foundation. Um she's given away tens of billions of dollars. Um the Gates Foundation has tens of billions of dollars.
## 01:00:24
**中文**
它们能迅速行动；若没行动，同样有责任。>> 明白，观点合理。>> 零人。>> 我听清楚了。>> 零。>> 国内方面，你离开 DOGE，目标难以实现。如今政府还走向两年半前你可能没预料的方向。>> 我不可能同意任何政府的所有行动。
**English / Original**
>> Uh they are capable of acting very quickly. Um, and if they didn't, I would say they're equally responsible. >> I see. Okay. >> Obviously. >> All right. Fair point. Um, >> zero people. >> I hear you loud and clear. >> Zero. >> Hear you loud and clear. >> Obviously, >> uh, domestically, you you stepped away from Doge. It It was hard to do what you were trying to do. You've just explained it. But this administration has gone in directions that I suspect you were not expecting two and a half years ago. you know, I'm not going to agree with everything any administration does.
## 01:00:59
**中文**
>> 对本届政府失望吗？>> 不，总体非常优秀；没有政府完美，但远好于替代方案。>> 谈谈你很关注的欧洲。>> 我没那么关注。>> 从帖子看你很担忧。>> 偶尔发一条。>> 相当频繁。我住在伦敦，所以真心感兴趣。
**English / Original**
>> Are you disappointed by this administration? >> No, I think this is a this administration on balance uh is as excellent. No, no administration is perfect, but it's uh vastly better than the alternative. >> Can we talk about Europe, a place that you are very very focused on? Um >> I'm not that focused on Europe. >> I think judging by your posts, you're pretty concerned about Europe. uh you you support >> I mean every once in a while I post something >> it's reasonably frequently it's not once in a while but but I'm because I'm genuinely interested in this as someone who lives in Europe lives in London.
## 01:01:35
**中文**
>> 你不仅支持民粹右翼，还支持某些国家非常边缘的极右翼党派。>> 我支持普通人。>> 你认为被错误称作极右翼的人才是普通人？>> 是。十到十五年前，这些政策完全正常。一个有趣测试是拿 Obama 或 Hillary 的演讲给我所谓“疯狂左派”的人，说这是 Trump 演讲，问他——
**English / Original**
>> Yeah. >> Uh you paint a picture well first of all you support not just the populist right but the far right in fact very fringe parties in some countries. >> No I support the normal people. >> Okay. >> What you call the far right falsely. >> You think is the normal person. Okay. >> Yes. Um, >> literally you could you could go back uh 10 or 15 years and these these these policies were completely normal. In fact, you you one of the one of the tricks I think is funny. What I think is quite funny is to like take a speech from Obama and Hillary and then and then go to someone and say uh who's sort of um you know on the sort of what I call the lunatic left um and say what do you
## 01:02:15
**中文**
怎么看。他会说“糟透了”，再告诉他其实是 Obama 或 Hillary。>> 我同意美国政治重心、民主党确实左移，但我谈的是 Rupert Lowe 等人。>> 他们只是普通人。原则是：边境安全、城市安全、理性支出。哪一项是极右翼边缘思想？
**English / Original**
think of the speech by Trump? Like oh wow he's the worst person ever. actually that was a speech by Obama or actually that was a speech by Hillary. >> I I I agree. No, I agree that the center of gravity in this country has shifted certainly the Democratic party shifted to the left. But that's not what I'm talking about. I'm talking about people like Rupert Low people. It's actually just normal people. Um it's just normal people. It's just normal people. And um the and and here are the principles and and tell me which of these sound terrible um that we should have secure borders. That we should have safe cities. uh that we should have sensible spending. Which of those three are well
## 01:02:50
**中文**
我要批评你和媒体荒谬地贴“极右翼”标签，虚假、误导、毫无道理。请保留这段。>> 都会保留。但我要反驳……>> 别剪。>> 你说的荒谬。Elon，你有——
**English / Original**
are our are are far right fringe. And and I would like to just admonish you and the media for the absurd characterization of the farright. It is false and misleading and nonsense. Please keep this part in. >> We'll keep all of this in. But let me [laughter] let me let me >> don't cut this part. >> Let me push back on that. Let me push back on that because you have >> nonsense. Elon, you have what is it?
## 01:03:15
**中文**
接近 2.5 亿 X 粉丝。>> 是，挺受欢迎。>> 你说“英国发生内战不可避免”。你上次去英国是什么时候？>> 几年前。>> 正是。我一直住在那里，不是这样。>> 你生活在封闭环境。
**English / Original**
Close to 250 million followers on X. >> Yeah. >> You say things like >> popular guy >> quote civil war in Britain is inevitable. Just a question. >> Yes. >> I mean, when were you last in the UK? >> Um, a few years ago. >> Exactly. So, so I live there. I'm there the whole time. That is not >> You live at a close existence.
## 01:03:36
**中文**
>> 并没有，数字也反驳你。伦敦比美国任何城市安全，英国暴力犯罪没有你以为的那么严重，且在下降。你向许多美国人描绘欧洲和英国被可怕穆斯林移民淹没、处处强奸、文明毁灭。>> 我没说这些。>> 但你说英国内战不可避免。>> 若当前趋势持续，是。>> 为什么？
**English / Original**
>> No, I don't actually. And the numbers also disprove what you say. >> What numbers? all the numbers about crime. London is a much safer city than any city in the United States. Violent crime in the UK is not where you think it is. In fact, it's coming down. You you have painted and because you have so many followers, so many Americans believe it, a a kind of view that Europe in and the UK are kind of, you know, overrun with terrifying Muslim immigrants. There's rape on every corner. There's a sort of civilizational destruction. I haven't said any of those things. It's just not Well, you say civil war in Britain is inevitable. Yes, if current trends continue, it is >> why?
## 01:04:12
**中文**
>> 若一个规模庞大且快速增长的群体，其信念与西方价值对立，终有清算时刻：他们试图落实自己的观点，反对者反抗，这就是内战。趋势显然如此。你确实生活封闭；愿意的话我们可巡游英国。
**English / Original**
>> Well, if if you have uh a large uh and growing rapidly growing uh group of of people whose beliefs are antithetical to western beliefs. Um at some point there will be a reckoning that that they they will they will try to implement their views and those who oppose it will oppose it and that's what you call civil war. And obviously this is the trend. Um and uh and and you absolutely do live in a cloistered existence. And if you'd like we can go on a tour of Britain.
## 01:04:48
**中文**
>> 很乐意带你游览我一直居住、而你几年没去的国家。>> 我去过上百次。>> 最近一次？>> 几年前。>> 这让我激动，是因为你深刻塑造了对英国的舆论。许多美国人告诉我伦敦危险、到处是诱骗团伙和暴力；这种印象来自你和 X 上的帖子。
**English / Original**
>> Sure. Very happy to come on a tour of Britain. >> And then and you will see my country that I live in all the time and you haven't been to a few years ago. >> I've been there literally a hundred times. >> But when was the last time? >> Literally a few years ago. >> You know why I this exercises me? because you have really shaped opinion about the UK and so many Americans I come across and I have conversations with and they will be and I just had one the other day along the order of oh London such a dangerous place how can you know there are sort of grooming gangs everywhere there are there's violence everywhere this is a picture that people get from things that you post or that are posted on X and for
## 01:05:25
**中文**
例如你连续 48 小时宣传《Citizen Vigilante》。我看了，既不好看，又描绘反乌托邦欧洲，美化私刑暴力和谋杀穆斯林移民家庭。我认为你在 X 发布它不负责任。
**English / Original**
example you're you're posting for what was it 48 hours of Citizen Vigilante that film which you know paints dystopian. I've watched it. >> Yes, >> it was not fun. I watched it yesterday. It's not a very good movie, but it's also paints a dystopian picture of Europe and it glorifies vigilante violence. It glorifies the murdering of a Muslim immigrant family. I honestly think that it is irresponsible for you to put that up on X.
## 01:05:50
**中文**
>> 它是一部值得看的电影。>> 你明显在暗示欧洲反乌托邦。>> 是。你为何不更多反对欧洲审查？似乎什么都没做。>> 不对。>> 英国会因社交媒体帖子监禁人，你觉得合理吗？
**English / Original**
>> I think that it's it's a movie. Um, and it's worth watching. >> You're clearly suggesting Europe is dystopian place and you >> Yes. I mean, why aren't you more uh doing more to fight censorship in Europe? Why aren't you >> doing seem to be doing nothing to fight censorship in Europe? >> That's not true. I am I think that >> they put people in in prison in the UK for social media posts. Do you think that's appropriate?
## 01:06:18
**中文**
>> 不，我们写过社论反对。我也认为不好，并同意你。但无需美化私刑暴力，也不必发布那些内容，向 2.4 亿粉丝描绘完全不准确的欧洲。>> 我不认为不准确。
**English / Original**
>> No. And we've written editorials against it. But I think that's the sort of thing that I think is bad. And I think if you and I agree with you, but I don't think you have to glorify vigilante violence and kind of you know post the things that you are doing and paint an entirely inaccurate picture of Europe that you >> I don't think it is.
## 01:06:37
**中文**
>> 我们应游览英国。英国其实很善于融合移民，虽然有问题，我首先承认。>> 问题很严重。>> 有问题，但绝不是你向 2.4 亿粉丝描述或暗示的样子。我认为这里有问题。
**English / Original**
>> We should we should do a tour of the UK. >> Yes. And one of >> the UK has actually been very good at integrating immigrants. The UK has a is is very effective at doing that. There are problems. I'm the first to admit that there are problems. >> Yes, there are major problems. >> There are problems. But it is not. It really is not what you are describing to or suggesting to your 240 million followers. It is. And I think there's a problem.
## 01:07:01
**中文**
>> 不，我认为判断完全准确。>> 我们只能……>> 这就是为何需要言论自由，至少允许人们说错误的话。>> 但你不只是说有权表达，而是声称自己对欧洲判断正确，我真不认为如此。
**English / Original**
>> No, I think I'm I think I'm spot on. >> Well, we'll have to >> and that's why you have freedom of speech or at least allows people to say things that are [clears throat] wrong. But your point is not that you're not just saying I have every right to say what I want. You're saying, you know, I am right about Europe and I really don't think you are.
## 01:07:17
**中文**
>> 我认为正确。>> 欧洲多数或很多人不会同意。但谈关键点……>> 因为媒体不断无视现实。>> 我也不认为。>> 人们被电视和传统媒体编程。
**English / Original**
>> I think I am. I think you will find that most people in Europe or many people in Europe don't think you're right about it. But let's let's come to that point >> because the media keeps ignoring what's ignoring reality. >> I don't think that's true either. I really >> and they're programmed by the TV and conventional media.
## 01:07:33
**中文**
>> 更大的问题是，你为什么聚焦此事？我们开场谈的是未来十年非凡、变革性、改变文明的技术；但你也持续参与社交媒体最糟糕的部落主义泥潭。
**English / Original**
>> But and why are you this is I guess even to me sort of the bigger picture question. Why do you focus on this? Why are you interested in it? Because on the one hand we started this conversation and you described to me this extraordinary transformative amazing sort of yeah civilizational changing stuff that's happening in the next 10 years >> and yet you're also you know a an ongoing participant in the worst kind of tribalism uh you know cesspit of social media.
## 01:08:05
**中文**
两者如何相容？>> 并不矛盾。>> 为什么参与部落主义？有人称你种族主义者，还有各种说法，你肯定不同意。我不理解动机，你是在煽动吗？
**English / Original**
Like how does that fit? Are you you know on the one they're two very different views of the world. Yeah, I don't think they're inconsistent. >> But why do you do the latter one, the tribalism? I mean, people say that you're a racist. People say that you're, you know, there's all kinds of things said about you, which I'm sure you would disagree with. Um, but I just don't understand what is the motivation for doing that. Are you fermenting?
## 01:08:30
**中文**
>> 我的伴侣一半印度血统，我们有四个孩子，其中一个以著名印度物理学家命名。所以我不是种族主义者。公司高管来自各种族，也不存在种族主义。
**English / Original**
>> My partner is is is um she's half Indian and my my and I have four children with her. um you know um one of them was named after a famous Indian physicist um so I I would say I'm not racist and also uh the you know if you look at the people that are employed at my companies um you know we have senior executives of all races uh there there's there's I don't think there's any racism there.
## 01:09:00
**中文**
>> 你反穆斯林吗？>> 如果人们带着与某国价值对立的观点进入该国，我反对。我反对强奸和谋杀，反对强加——
**English / Original**
>> Are you anti-Muslim? Um I am I'm against uh having if if if if people are coming to a country with antithetical views um I I am against that. I I'm against that you know I'm against um I I I'm against rape and murder. I'm against uh the imposition of rules and laws that are
## 01:09:42
**中文**
与西方已接受规范相反的规则法律。传统媒体如你们不承认这一点，令人痛心。>> 首先你严重夸大欧洲挑战；其次，某些方面我完全同意，例如英国部分言论自由限制有问题。
**English / Original**
contrary to what we've come to accept in the west. Um and um and I think it's a it's it's a crying shame that the sort of traditional media like you um uh don't recognize this. First of all, I think that you hugely exaggerate the challenges that Europe faces. Secondly, in areas I completely agree with you. I I I think that, you know, the constraints on freedom of speech in in the UK in certain areas are problematic.
## 01:10:14
**中文**
我担心你支持的人中有些极其恶劣。AfD 的 Alice Weidel 本人很有思考，但党内有真正的新纳粹和可怕人物。你向 2.4 亿粉丝全面支持这种党派，拥有的欧洲影响力或许连你自己都没意识到。>> 我希望影响很大。
**English / Original**
>> What worries me is that the people you are supporting are really quite vile people in some areas. like some members of the AFD, Alice Videl, whom I've met, is a perfectly thoughtful person, but in her party are some real neo-Nazis, are some really, really awful people. And your blanket support of this kind of party with 240 million followers means that you have a power in Europe that I think perhaps you don't realize the scale of impact you have, but you can >> I hope I hope I am having a big impact.
## 01:10:48
**中文**
>> 为什么你应该塑造欧洲政治？你都不住那里。>> 我把西方视为整体。>> 你能理解为何人们觉得世界首富仗着权力认为自己有权影响我们的政治吗？这就是有人厌恶你的原因。
**English / Original**
Why? Why should you why should you be able to shape European politics? What? You don't even live there. >> I think of it as the sort of the West collectively. >> But do you see why this makes people think that this man who has all this power, he's the world's richest man, he thinks he has a right to influence our politics. It makes people It's why, you know, we started this conversation saying superlatives. It's why people loathe you.
## 01:11:11
**中文**
>> 的确有人厌恶你。>> 是。>> 你理解原因吗？你所做的有利于西方吗？>> 也许有人厌恶我，我不在乎。但你指出有四分之一十亿人关注我，说明喜欢我的人比不喜欢的多。
**English / Original**
>> I mean, some people do loathe you. >> Yes, some people do. >> But do you understand why? Do you think what you're doing is helpful for Western? >> Maybe maybe some people do lo me. I And that's and that's probably true. I don't care. Um the uh but but the fact that uh as you pointed out a quarter billion people follow me is that I think a lot more people actually like me than don't.
## 01:11:35
**中文**
而厌恶你和媒体的人比你意识到的多。媒体被鄙视；记者好感度大概只有 15%。>> 我知道美国如此。>> 所以情况正好反过来。
**English / Original**
And I think a lot more people hate you and the media uh more than you realize. Do you realize the media is despised? Do do you realize that that journalists how the view of journalists is is like it's it's like a favorable view of journalists is like 15%. >> I do know that in the United States. >> So so the shoe is on the other foot.
## 01:11:57
**中文**
他们更恨你们。>> 远胜于恨我。>> 新闻业确实失去信任，部分因为记者和媒体犯错；但 X 上你推动的内容加剧极化环境，使情况更糟。
**English / Original**
They hate you. >> They hate you far more than they hate me. >> I think there is certainly a loss of trust in journalism. I think in part there have been mistakes by journalists and journalism. I totally acknowledge that. But I also think that the kind of polarized environment particularly on social media fostered by the kinds of things you are pushing on X actually helps this makes it worse.
## 01:12:23
**中文**
>> 我不认为。问题在媒体。说到厌恶，你们比我更被厌恶，却没意识到。>> 相比你，很少有人知道我，我不在同一赛场。>> 媒体整体被厌恶。
**English / Original**
>> I don't think so. I think I think you're the problem. The media um and and speaking of loathing, you're loaded far more than I am and you don't seem to even realize that. >> I think I think very few people know who I am relative to you. So I don't think I play in the same game. the media collectively. Um, so I mean, you're hated.
## 01:12:48
**中文**
你知道吗？大概不知道。>> 我希望自己了解个人、《经济学人》和世界观的不足。但我们代表自由主义价值、传统古典自由主义，担心权力集中，相信个人尊严与自由。我一直认为你是 J.S. Mill 式古典自由主义者：有限政府、个人自由。>> 我同意。>> 但看你的帖子——
**English / Original**
Do you even do you even know that? You probably don't. >> I like to think that I'm aware of my own personal shortcomings and the economist shortcomings and our world views shortcomings. But what we stand for as you as you know is liberal values, traditional classical liberal values where we worry about concentrations of power and we believe in the individual and the dignity of the individual. I and individual freedom I firmly believe that and I have long thought that you were a classical liberal but when I read what you >> classical liberal JS Mill limited government individual freedom >> yeah I agree with that. when I read what you post
## 01:13:30
**中文**
有时会怀疑。>> 我明确主张安全城市、安全边境和理性政府支出，这丝毫不使我成为右翼。>> 美国和欧洲谁做得更好？
**English / Original**
on your feed, I sometimes wonder whether you really do believe in that. >> Um, I literally said, look, I believe in uh safe cities, secure borders, and sensible spending with with respect to government. Um, >> does >> that doesn't make me right-wing at all. Um, in the least. >> Does the US or do European countries score better on those?
## 01:13:55
**中文**
>> 美国。>> 不。英国城市比美国安全；这里赤字更大、支出失控，你也没削减；只有 Trump 政府下边境更安全。三项中两项欧洲明显更好，你却把欧洲描绘成地狱。
**English / Original**
>> The US is better. No. >> Yeah. >> Safe cities much more dangerous in the US than the UK. Sensible spending, bigger deficit here, out of control. You managed, you've you've you failed to reduce it. Secure borders. Now, under the Trump administration, I agree with you. Before not, but on two out of three, unequivocally, Europe is in a better place. Yet, you seem to paint a picture of Europe being a hell hole.
## 01:14:18
**中文**
>> 我没说欧洲是地狱。>> 好，终于有共识。>> 我何时说过？>> 你描绘的画面……>> 你在编造。>> 你说英国内战不可避免，又宣传《Citizen Vigilante》，影片用阴森音乐开场，明确把欧洲描绘成地狱。
**English / Original**
>> I don't think Europe's a hell hole. >> Okay, we can agree on something. >> When did I ever say that? >> Well, the picture you paint of Europe You're making up things. >> No, I'm not. You sayi civil war in Britain is inevitable and then you you've you basically proitized for this citizen vigilante film which really does paint Europe as a hellhole. It just starts with you know ominous music and it says Europe.
## 01:14:42
**中文**
>> 强奸和谋杀曾失控。>> 美国更危险。这里危险是因为不监禁惯犯；检察官或法官不关押反复实施暴力犯罪者。一个人因暴力犯罪被捕五十次，最终会杀人，所以要么监禁——
**English / Original**
>> Well, there are there was out of control rape and murder. >> It's more dangerous in this country than it is in Europe. uh where where there is danger in this country is is because we we we failed to incarcerate uh repeat violent offenders. >> Um and that's uh you know the classic sort of SARSDA uh or judges that fail to incarcerate repeat violent offenders. And if somebody gets arrested 50 times literally um for violent crimes uh and and eventually they're going to kill somebody. So So you either you either
## 01:15:23
**中文**
他，要么会有人死亡。
**English / Original**
incarcerate them or people will die.
## 01:15:26
**中文**
>> 枪支普及也有很大关系。美国谋杀率高得多，很大程度因枪多。>> 一个有趣数字：欧洲死于高温的人，比美国死于枪支的人更多。
**English / Original**
>> I think the prevalence of guns has quite a lot to do with it too. >> I mean this is a much more dangerous country. Murder rates are much higher in large part because there's so much there are so many guns. >> Well, let me give you an interesting number. There are more people that die in Europe from heat deaths than gun than people that die from gun deaths in America.
## 01:15:43
**中文**
为何不写空调？>> 我们写过多篇，上周封面还有长文。我们非常支持空调。>> 很好。>> 应该读我们。>> 该肯定就肯定。
**English / Original**
Why aren't you uh writing an article about air conditioning? >> Well, we've done several on air conditioning and we had on our cover last week um a a whole a whole long piece about, you know, why air conditioning. >> Yeah, we're very pro aironditioning. >> Okay, good. Well, good. >> Very pro. You should read us. Absolutely. Credits where it's due.
## 01:16:01
**中文**
>> 你对《经济学人》的看法不完全准确。你来看看英国、开始读《经济学人》，我也愿意修正对你的批评。>> 英国和欧洲很多地方不安全，不能随便走。
**English / Original**
>> I think you have a a view of the economist that is not entirely accurate. So I will you come look at England, start reading The Economist and I will um you know stand corrected on my criticism of you in this area that there are there are many parts of Britain um and Europe which are not safe. You you you can't just walk around.
## 01:16:30
**中文**
>> 美国这样的地方更多。>> 我不认为。>> 让事实核查员检查。我们继续。>> 问题不是美国是否完美，而是欧洲是否有严重且日益增长的问题。
**English / Original**
>> But there are far more in this country. Far more. >> No, I don't think so. All right, let's go and get my fact checkers to check that. >> Yeah, I don't I don't think that's true. Um, >> let's move on from this because I think I've got a sense of why you're doing what you're doing. >> The point is not that that that the question is not is that is is America perfect? Question is, uh, does Europe have a serious and growing problem?
## 01:16:52
**中文**
>> 绝对有。>> 欧洲有严重、不断增长的问题；我没说美国没问题。大家都应处理。>> 这点同意。我的观点只是你夸大欧洲问题。>> 我认为你们玩忽职守，没意识到问题规模。
**English / Original**
Absolutely. More dangerous. That's where we started this. >> Europe has a serious and growing problem. I'm I'm I'm not going to, uh, say that the United States has no problems. Of course, it does. Um but uh you know we we should all try to to address these issues. >> We can agree on that. We should all try to address the problems. My point was simply that I think you exaggerate the scale of Europe's problem and that >> I think you people are asleep at the switch and do not realize the magnitude of the issue.
## 01:17:20
**中文**
>> 你出于善意的介入也可能令欧洲问题更糟，因为支持的是准威权主义者，他们不只想改善融合或管好边境，而有明显法西斯倾向。>> 完全虚构。我只说欧洲必须有安全边境——
**English / Original**
>> I also think that your interventions, however well-intentioned they may be, risk making Europe's problem a lot worse. >> How? because you are putting your support behind people who are proto athoritarians who are not trying simply to you know make sure there is better integration of Muslims or to to secure the borders but who have very clear fascist tendencies and you will cause Europe I think what you're saying is total fiction um and really uh I I'm simply saying that they need to be there needs to that Europe has to have secure borders um >> okay on that not let in vast numbers of people who with views that are
## 01:18:02
**中文**
不能大量接纳价值观与欧洲相悖、又无法安全文化融合的人，这是常识。>> 若你只说安全边境，我完全同意；那我误解了你的社交媒体介入，因为从你支持的人和行为并不会得出这个结论。但若这就是目标，我们目标一致。
**English / Original**
antithetical to uh the accepted views in in Europe and and where there will where there will not be some level of uh safe cultural integration. This is simply common sense. >> If all you are saying is Europe should have secure borders, I completely agree with you. then that then I have misunderstood what your interventions have been on social media because that is not what the view I have con not what I would conclude having seen what the people you are supporting and the things you're doing but if that's your goal I share your goal that Europe should have secure borders I think that's perfectly agreeable >> that gets me to a question >> and and let me let me explain what what
## 01:18:38
**中文**
>> 让我解释边境不安全的根本驱动力：福利国家向任何抵达者提供大量福利，就会给生活水平较低的人形成强大经济驱动力，促使他们来到欧洲。
**English / Original**
the fundamental forcing function here is uh for why the borders are not secure which is uh when you have a welfare state that provides substantial benefits uh to anyone who comes there. Um you create a very powerful economic forcing function for anyone who is below that standard of living to come to Europe. Um it is it is a an an obvious powerful driving force.
## 01:19:08
**中文**
若在欧洲所得生活水平高于原居地，人们就会来，很简单。>> 完全同意。经济条件和激励决定大量迁移；庇护另当别论，但你说得对。
**English / Original**
Um and um people will come there if if their standard of living is uh from what they get in Europe is above where they are elsewhere in the world. It's very basic. >> I'd completely agree with that. I don't I don't >> it's a very basic incentive structure. Um >> economic conditions, economic influences determine a lot of migration. I think asylum is a separate issue, but I think you I think you're absolutely right.
## 01:19:34
**中文**
然而移民也带来很多好处，尤其欧洲迅速老龄化。完全开放边境不好，但欧洲受益于受控移民。>> 我支持移民；作为美国移民，不支持才虚伪。前提是移民成为有生产力的社会成员、诚实——
**English / Original**
There are there are um pressures for migration. However, there are other things that you haven't focused on which is migration brings a lot of benefits and it al particularly does so in a continent like Europe which is a rapidly aging continent. So we can agree that completely uncontrolled borders are a bad idea but I am I think Europe benefits from having immigration controlled immigration. It brings >> Yes. I like I I'm in favor of immigration. Obviously I'd be hypocritical if I wasn't since I'm an immigrant to the United States. Um, I'm in favor of immigration if the person immigrating um is going to be a productive member of society. Um, if they're going to be honest and if
## 01:20:13
**中文**
且不虐待当地人。>> 这些都同意。但欧洲做得比你承认的好，这是分歧。继续。人们最误解你的是什么？>> 你刚才就误解了我很多。
**English / Original**
they're not going to mistreat people in that country, they're going to. >> I can agree on all of those. >> Yes. >> But I think that Europe does better on that than you give it credit for. That's I think where we disagree. But let's move on. Tell me, what do you think people get most wrong about you? >> Well, I mean, you get you just got a whole bunch of things wrong about me.
## 01:20:33
**中文**
倒回去看过去二十分钟，几乎都错。>> 所以最被误解的是政治立场？>> 对。我的观点非常中间，并非极右翼；称其极右翼是对历史和许多人的侮辱，是荒谬谎言。我已非常清楚地陈述立场——
**English / Original**
pretty much everything in the last just rewind the last 20 minutes still wrong. >> So I got we got I got wrong [laughter] your your >> Well, let's not be repetitive here. >> Okay. So So that political side of you people get most wrong. >> Yeah. My political views are very are are centrist. they're not uh far-right and and and frankly calling it farright I think is an insult uh to to history an insult to many peoples and it is uh an outrageous falsehood. Um it's it's completely absurd. I I literally have stated my position which is that and and I've been very clear
## 01:21:13
**中文**
需要安全边境；若移民涌入，应认同西方理想和价值。如果不认同，甚至坚决反对西方价值的人长期增长，就是在为内战铺路，孩子都看得出来。
**English / Original**
about this which is that there need to be secure borders that um if if there's if there's an influx of immigrants they they they need to be people who will agree that the with with with western ideals with western values and if they don't and if and if there's a long-term uh growth of people who do not or or in some cases are adamantly opposed to western values you are setting yourself up for civil war. This is obvious. A child can see this.
## 01:21:44
**中文**
>> 这不是右翼观点，只是陈述现实。>> 证据最终能判断谁更正确；欧洲不同地区会分别支持我们的看法，问题是整体。>> 我很擅长预测未来。
**English / Original**
>> So, so but this this is not a right-wing view. I'm simply stating reality. >> Well, I think we can both agree that evidence will be able to decide which of us is more or less right. And we will find evidence for both of our views in different parts of Europe. The question is what the overall >> I'm very good at predicting the future.
## 01:22:00
**中文**
并非完美，但以人类标准命中率很高。这有“卡珊德拉效应”：人们不相信我的预测。相比多数人，我看未来的成功概率更高，包括一些反直觉之事。我并非总是正确，但命中率——
**English / Original**
I'm not perfect, but I'm very good at predicting the future. Uh my batting average is is very high for a human. Um, but this this does have somewhat of a Cassandra effect where where people don't believe that what I'm saying is likely to be true. Um, because, you know, I I I can see into the future with a higher B, not perfectly, but with a higher probability of success than most people. So, and including things that people believe to be in some cases counterintuitive. Um, and uh, again, I'm not saying I'm always right. I certainly am not. But but my batting average is
## 01:22:41
**中文**
确实很高。人们没意识到我的话会成真，也许时间不完全按预测，但会发生。历史会裁决；你会发现我说的几乎很少不准确，绝大多数——
**English / Original**
very good. Um, but but this this this does have, like I said, a Cassandra effect where people don't realize that what I'm saying will come to pass. Um, maybe not exactly in the timing that I thought, but it will come to pass. Um, and uh, yeah. the history will write the verdict. But I think you will see that very little of what I've said um is inaccurate. Um and and a super majority of what I've said
## 01:23:22
**中文**
非常准确并会发生，除非方向改变。>> 对 AI 未来还是政治未来更有信心？>> 数字超级智能被称作奇点，就像黑洞，因为之后无法知道会发生什么，而且它会吸入一切。真正宏观的影响——
**English / Original**
is very accurate and will come to pass >> unless there are there's some change in direction. Do you have higher confidence level in your expectations of the future for AI the first part of our conversation or the latter part the political part? >> Um the I mean AI is digital super intelligence is called the singularity like a black hole because you don't know what's going to happen after that. It's and and it sort of sucks in everything. So I think really in in terms of the the the really big macro effects here
## 01:24:04
**中文**
将由 AI 和机器人支配，时间少于十年，使其他讨论不那么重要。AI 机器人革命会比英国内战更早；我认为英国内战约二十年后，AI 机器人奇点十年后。
**English / Original**
AI and robots will really dominate everything. So on a on a on a time scale that is less than 10 years >> which probably renders this other stuff that we've been talking about less important and less relevant. The a the AI AI robotics revolution will happen sooner. It it will it'll happen sooner than civil war in in in in Britain. I would say civil war in Britain is probably 20 years away. Um and the AI robot singularity is 10 years away.
## 01:24:46
**中文**
>> 希望这些善良、全能 AI 会阻止这种结局。>> 大概会。>> Elon，我并非同意你所有观点，但与你交谈永远非常精彩。非常感谢。>> 不客气，我不无聊。>> 你绝对不无聊。
**English / Original**
Well, hopefully these benign all powerful AIs will prevent such outcomes. >> They probably will. >> Elon, I don't agree with everything you say, but it's always [music] absolutely fascinating to talk to you. Thank you very much indeed. No, >> you're welcome. I'm not boring. >> You're definitely not boring.